AFL Marsh Series 2020

[Keystone agony]

Couldn't see a thread

I'm on the doggies tonight

1u Dogs -5.5 @1.89 half time

North without: Higgins, Ziebell, Tarrant, Ben Brown, Polec and LDU (Plus Goldy and Cunnington have been picked for All stars game)

WBD without: Wood, Suckling, J.Bruce and T.English (Bont and MacRae picked in All stars)

 

[benji21]

Agree -5.5 is a good bet. Teams i think will be copying Richmond a bit so wouldn't be surprised to see some big scores this series due to faster play. but 188.5 total at the moment is quite high.

 

[Atavistic]

Sportsbet had Lloyd@9 for 3+ goals and Dickson@11 for 3+ last night, so I got on those. Dickson still at 7. Not sure if that's value for him.


Also a tiny bet on Zurhaar 4+ into Dickson 4+@700.

 

[Atavistic]

Thoughts on McAdam and Stengle tomorrow? McAdam 4.50 for 2 goals and 17 for 3 goals. Stengle $6 for 2 goals and $23 for 3. Both will be keen to kick a few, you'd think, as they'll want to cement their spot in the seniors.

 

[Keystone agony]

Thoughts on McAdam and Stengle tomorrow? McAdam 4.50 for 2 goals and 17 for 3 goals. Stengle $6 for 2 goals and $23 for 3. Both will be keen to kick a few, you'd think, as they'll want to cement their spot in the seniors.

Yeh I quite like it. Dees have a very strong side compared to crows though.

But did like Stengle at 1.83 AGS

 

[Keystone agony]

I'm going to give GC a chance

0.5u. Each
GC win @4.5 (b366)
GC +27.5 @1.91 (b365)

GC missing Witts, Harbrow, R.Thompson, Hanley, Miles, W.Powell (Witts, Harbrow and Hanley only big ones)


Cats missing:
M.Oconnor, Duncan, J.Steven, J.Selwood, Cockatoo, Menegola, Parfitt, Dahlhaus, J.Henry, Ablett (doubt plays), (10)
T.Stewart (Done little PS plays a half max)
Dangerfield, Blic and Tuohy - play All Stars 6 days time

Also might target 2nd half when those last 3 are rested

 

[benji21]

Melb minus for me today, assuming crows have a bit to work out.

 

[Atavistic]

Yeh I quite like it. Dees have a very strong side compared to crows though.

But did like Stengle at 1.83 AGS

Yeah, I didn't notice Melbourne are nearly full strength.

 

[GROTTO]

Cats coming off the bye. I missed a trick tonight.

 

[ash_1050]

Coupled two bets of Brisbane win and Brisbane+40 into total score under 182.5

 

[iluvparis]

Got on Crows/Melb HT/FT and also Crows +4.5 line at Half Time

But missed on the goal kickers

Still a nice positive day

sure you did

 

[Keystone agony]

Cats coming off the bye. I missed a trick tonight.

Lucky I was onto it

 

[NonPhixion]

Waterman 2+ $3.60
3+ $11
SB

 

[freo_leo29]

Waterman 2+ $3.60
3+ $11
SB

odds must have been crunched was $5 and $19 for me

What was he paying for 1?

 

[NonPhixion]

odds must have been crunched was $5 and $19 for me

What was he paying for 1?

damn, that's crazy
around $1.50ish I believe

 

[freo_leo29]

damn, that's crazy
around $1.50ish I believe

ah yeah was 1.80 for 1 for me

Was cheering on the 4 goals at 81 in the last but he couldn't get there

 

[juss]

I don't touch preseason games but I can see value in the Bushfire game tonight.

Thinking Victoria will win, but either way it will be close and high scoring, with an emphasis on both and probably not much defensive pressure. I also doubt it's a game where one side is going to be coached or mentally want to barrel the opposition, so a couple of bets I'm looking at and will decide closer to the time:

Either team by 15 or less: $3.20 @ Neds
This seems really good to me, you get the insurance with both teams covered, and a healthy margin for a game where the spectacle is more important than the result.

Victoria 1-39: $2.60 @ Neds/Ladbrokes
This is a game where I think a less <39 point is guaranteed no matter who you back. Neither team is going to steamroll the other one here in a charity game. I'm leaning toward Vic so I may take this outright or I might hedge and take:

Option 2:
Vic 1-39: $2.60 at Neds
All Stars 1-39: $3.10 at Ladbrokes

I don't see either team winning by 40+, so that's a pretty safe bet there to lock in a profit

 

[NonPhixion]

I don't touch preseason games but I can see value in the Bushfire game tonight.

Thinking Victoria will win, but either way it will be close and high scoring, with an emphasis on both and probably not much defensive pressure. I also doubt it's a game where one side is going to be coached or mentally want to barrel the opposition, so a couple of bets I'm looking at and will decide closer to the time:

Either team by 15 or less: $3.20 @ Neds
This seems really good to me, you get the insurance with both teams covered, and a healthy margin for a game where the spectacle is more important than the result.

Victoria 1-39: $2.60 @ Neds/Ladbrokes
This is a game where I think a less <39 point is guaranteed no matter who you back. Neither team is going to steamroll the other one here in a charity game. I'm leaning toward Vic so I may take this outright or I might hedge and take:

Option 2:
Vic 1-39: $2.60 at Neds
All Stars 1-39: $3.10 at Ladbrokes

I don't see either team winning by 40+, so that's a pretty safe bet there to lock in a profit

I like your thinking. agreed.
I was hoping to multi goal-scorer's, but it cant be done... they definitely 'know', total is 226.5 on B365
Papley AGS $1.50 TAB is good. short odds but I think it should be close to $1.10.

 

[juss]

I like your thinking. agreed.
I was hoping to multi goal-scorer's, but it cant be done... they definitely 'know', total is 226.5 on B365
Papley AGS $1.50 TAB is good. short odds but I think it should be close to $1.10.

I reckon most of the set forwards will score a goal tonight, will be that sort of game.

I ended up taking 1x on VIC 1-39 at $2.60 and 1x on All Stars 1-39 at$3.20

I had a 1x bonus bet that I also put on VIC 1-39.

total outlay only 2x due to the free bet. Given it's a charity match I'd be very surprised if I dont make money tonight, I only lose if one team smashes the other.

 

[NonPhixion]

Turns out you can multi goalscorer’s. This should be fun
Walters + Martin AGS, Breust 2+, Papley 2+, Greene 2+ $33.50

 

[pendlebury_10]

I don't touch preseason games but I can see value in the Bushfire game tonight.

Thinking Victoria will win, but either way it will be close and high scoring, with an emphasis on both and probably not much defensive pressure. I also doubt it's a game where one side is going to be coached or mentally want to barrel the opposition, so a couple of bets I'm looking at and will decide closer to the time:

Either team by 15 or less: $3.20 @ Neds
This seems really good to me, you get the insurance with both teams covered, and a healthy margin for a game where the spectacle is more important than the result.

Victoria 1-39: $2.60 @ Neds/Ladbrokes
This is a game where I think a less <39 point is guaranteed no matter who you back. Neither team is going to steamroll the other one here in a charity game. I'm leaning toward Vic so I may take this outright or I might hedge and take:

Option 2:
Vic 1-39: $2.60 at Neds
All Stars 1-39: $3.10 at Ladbrokes

I don't see either team winning by 40+, so that's a pretty safe bet there to lock in a profit

I also like the 'Wire to Wire' market - $2.10 for any other result, that being the same team doesn't lead at the end of every quarter.
I think it will be a close fought, topsy-turvy affair.

 

[gym4life]

Turns out you can multi goalscorer’s. This should be fun
Walters + Martin AGS, Breust 2+, Papley 2+, Greene 2+ $33.50

Where were u able to do this?

 

[NonPhixion]

Where were u able to do this?

Woops
Sb

 

[gym4life]

Woops
Sb

Thanks mate.

 

[juss]

Where were u able to do this?

Geez there would be some lucrative multis being thrown around tonight