Where has Janus gone? I need some optimism.
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Banks, oil and iron producers, mining services.We knew we were going to be locked down at some point, how is this not priced in?
What businesses at most at risk outside of travel and hospo with this news?
When pretty much everyone starts talking like this and all the towels are thrown in is when it will bottom hehe.At least 50 percent. Could be 90 percent.
couple of reasons.
1)the virus crisis hasnt really hit yet. Its still only 1000 people here. Its going to infect millions.
2) we havent had the financial crisis yet. its going to be impossible to avoid with businesses shutting down and losing cash flows. low quality corporate debt ratios were already terribly high before the virus even hit. Now take away these companies cash flow and defaults will start occuring. the banks and governments may take on that debt and it gives us time but then they will be the ones struggling instead.
this is the biggest economic disaster since the great depression. The GFC is going to small compared to this.
one thing could save us. A cure. thats the only thing that will stop this now.
Thing for me is, these businesses literally are gonna have no income for say 6 months or maybe moreSure it's anyone's guess exactly when but the thing is the market will eventually way overshoot to the downside and then rebound, and that it could be a quite violent upswing in its recovery? You don't want to grab the falling knife but it would also be a shame trying to pick out the bottom too closely and completely miss out on some real value.
Yep so I’m not game to go in right nowYep, long slow recovery you'd think. China is still in lockdown, four months in.
The economy itself sure will be slow to recover, but I think the opinion was that the market will run up before that in anticipation of things getting back on track and it could be quick.Thing for me is, these businesses literally are gonna have no income for say 6 months or maybe more
I don’t think the market will go much more lower maybe down to about low 4s or high 3s (all ords) but I don’t see it rapidly going up in value once we come out of the other side
It’s glnna be slow, especially at the start
Post GFC the US banks were sitting on billions worth of largely useless housing stock (jingle mail, not a factor here in Oz).There is talk that Asian economies could get up and running quickly because of their harsh lockdown. US is looking like a different story though. Talk of unemployment going beyond the GD levels. Would be years to recover if that's the case. Donnie would be in his knees to the Chinese then.
3685 in May next year.Anyone want to have a crack at calling the bottom? All Ords 3650 is my guess.
so can anyone explain to me why the Shanghai stock exchange has relatively held up during the last few months?
Albeit its down approximately 10% on January highs, but this seems like peanuts relative to the dow.
I'm a rookie here so go easy
Putting aside the pain of seeing your portfolio get slaughtered it's actually fascinating watching this all unfold.
Disagree. People dont want to miss out on tge rebound. Its already rising on speculation that italys infection rate has peaked. If the us one does watch the market boom. Couldeven get back close to pre crisis levels. however it will then gradually delate again as the market realises social distancing is here to stay for quite some time and some businesses go under.Thing for me is, these businesses literally are gonna have no income for say 6 months or maybe more
I don’t think the market will go much more lower maybe down to about low 4s or high 3s (all ords) but I don’t see it rapidly going up in value once we come out of the other side
It’s glnna be slow, especially at the start