Autopsy Round 1, 2020: Hawks defeat the Lions

[Beandip]

I think TOB needs to be competing for Gunston's spot (third forward), not against Mitch Lewis (CHF). Unfortunately in that case he's well behind - but his fate is in his hands.

 

[driftyhunter]

They are literally opinions.

This is a forum where people share their opinions.

Or should we all post 'In my opinion' at the start of every sentence, just so it's clear for everyone? Give over.

100% correct. Just a weird comment by ole mate Turly

 

[KermitJagger]

Let's actually look at this in more detail.

TOB has had several seasons to show that he's got it. He will be 26 by the time games resume, and 27 next season.

Most players are well and truly into their prime by this stage of their careers - granted KPP's take a little longer than most, but even renowned late blooming KPP's have already hit their stride and have been consistent performers by this stage - e.g. Hawkins was 23 when he came into his own and kicked 62 goals.

TOB had five good games at the end of last year (kicking 12 goals and averaging 4.4 marks) and if people are going to hang their hat on those five games (out of his 62 games), then it's fair to point out that we expect more than 8 touches, 1 mark and 1 goal from one of our two key forwards. Especially when it's part of the reason why Gunston is relegated to the backline and Lewis to the stands.

Lewis, in his third season at 20/21 years of age, averaged 4.7 marks per game - more than TOB has in his best five game spell of his career.

If we cherry pick Lewis's best five games of last season to hang our hats on, then he's averaging 4.6 marks and he kicked 13 goals. Now keep in mind he's got four and a half more years of development ahead of him before he's in TOB's position.

As for your player comparison - one of these players is renowned for being "almost" Tim. The amount of times I've read on here, "when he starts clunking them..." and words to that effect is mind boggling. We've had years of it. The percentage of marks he takes compared to the amount of times he flies for one is stark (based on the eye test, so feel free to prove me wrong).

Lewis doesn't seem to have that issue and can clunk them, and he's also 2m tall, making him a harder matchup in the air.

TOB was average at the very best in the backline, and outright punished most times. Simply because he has played there doesn't mean he's versatile. I'm sure we could stick Lewis there and then claim he's versatile too. As for ruck - who would you rather, the ruck/forward junior who is at a ruckman's height, or the other guy that's 193cm?

Set shot comparison based on last year:
TOB is 12/9
Lewis is 20/15

You need more context to those stats to make a claim either way, but on face value they are the exact same there.

TOB is a nice field kick so I don't have an issue with that aspect of his game.

Now I do think he deserves another chance after his last five games last season, but that chance will be short lived if he serves up another 4 kick, 1 mark and 1 goal game - especially with Lewis and Scrimshaw in the stands and Gunston everywhere but the forward line.

They're not playing for the same position so, nice analysis but not at all needed.

 

[TazHawk15]

Mitch was a top 5 contested mark in the league % wise last season, where was Tim? What about average goals?

I take Mitch everyday of the week and yesterday over Tim, that’s just where I sit. 5 years younger, bigger, better contested mark and higher ceiling.

Happy with your opinion even though I dont agree with it.

Maybe when you deliver that opinion about Lewis you can refrain from puting down TOB at the same time.

It can be done because even though I dont rate Lewis anywhere near as much as you do, I would never put s**t on the guy.

As I said when TOB had a fantastic 5 weeks last year I never read a word of praise from you about it. If Lewis had produced that sort of form you would have proclaimed him as the next "Carey".

So I did not read a word of praise about TOB last year even though most on here were wrapt at the footy he was playing.
Yet after one game this year you go with "TOB was quiet"

Do I think Lewis can turn into the player you think he can be, no I dont.
Do I want him to become that player, you bet I do.

I guess my main point is maybe when Lewis has a quiet game you highlight that in the same way you highlight it, when TOB has a quiet one.

Or maybe just be a little even handed when discussing both players.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

They're not playing for the same position so, nice analysis but not at all needed.

He was playing KPF on the weekend. You're right though, Lewis was getting the better defender last season - which makes it even more impressive. He didn't have the advantage of playing on 3rd or 4th defenders.

But instead of offering up nothing but a lol-worthy post how about you actually refute it. Everything I said was true.

 

[JZedd]

At the end of the day I think this is the WORST time to drop O'Brien. Lewis is NOT as fit and prepared as last year due to interrupted surgery and other minor injuries. Remember last year he sacrificed a lot of his holiday time to train, which was a terrific attitude. Based on the praccy games you could see he wasn't ready. I reckon let's wait until he is flying at training before we rush him back. We need Lewis to also provide improved defensive pressure which helps if you're 100% fit. Either way it's great to have competition for spots.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Happy with your opinion even though I dont agree with it.

Maybe when you deliver that opinion about Lewis you can refrain from puting down TOB at the same time.

It can be done because even though I dont rate Lewis anywhere near as much as you do, I would never put s**t on the guy.

As I said when TOB had a fantastic 5 weeks last year I never read a word of praise from you about it. If Lewis had produced that sort of form you would have proclaimed him as the next "Carey".

So I did not read a word of praise about TOB last year even though most on here were wrapt at the footy he was playing.
Yet after one game this year you go with "TOB was quiet"

Do I think Lewis can turn into the player you think he can be, no I dont.
Do I want him to become that player, you bet I do.

I guess my main point is maybe when Lewis has a quiet game you highlight that in the same way you highlight it, when TOB has a quiet one.

Or maybe just be a little even handed when discussing both players.

Lewis is 21. He's got over 4 years to get to O'Brien's stage.

You'd all be laughing if O'Brien was playing for any other team and you all read their supporters posting about him like you do in here. How do you all feel about Gary Rohan for example?

 

[TazHawk15]

At the end of the day I think this is the WORST time to drop O'Brien. Lewis is NOT as fit and prepared as last year due to interrupted surgery and other minor injuries. Remember last year he sacrificed a lot of his holiday time to train, which was a terrific attitude. Based on the praccy games you could see he wasn't ready. I reckon let's wait until he is flying at training before we rush him back. We need Lewis to also provide improved defensive pressure which helps if you're 100% fit. Either way it's great to have competition for spots.

A very good post.

Yes it is great to have competition for spots.

Almost as good as when posters compare our players but can do so without puting anyone down.

 

[JZedd]

Happy with your opinion even though I dont agree with it.

Maybe when you deliver that opinion about Lewis you can refrain from puting down TOB at the same time.

It can be done because even though I dont rate Lewis anywhere near as much as you do, I would never put s**t on the guy.

As I said when TOB had a fantastic 5 weeks last year I never read a word of praise from you about it. If Lewis had produced that sort of form you would have proclaimed him as the next "Carey".

So I did not read a word of praise about TOB last year even though most on here were wrapt at the footy he was playing.
Yet after one game this year you go with "TOB was quiet"

Do I think Lewis can turn into the player you think he can be, no I dont.
Do I want him to become that player, you bet I do.

I guess my main point is maybe when Lewis has a quiet game you highlight that in the same way you highlight it, when TOB has a quiet one.

Or maybe just be a little even handed when discussing both players.

Happy with your opinion even though I dont agree with it.

Maybe when you deliver that opinion about Lewis you can refrain from puting down TOB at the same time.

It can be done because even though I dont rate Lewis anywhere near as much as you do, I would never put s**t on the guy.

As I said when TOB had a fantastic 5 weeks last year I never read a word of praise from you about it. If Lewis had produced that sort of form you would have proclaimed him as the next "Carey".

So I did not read a word of praise about TOB last year even though most on here were wrapt at the footy he was playing.
Yet after one game this year you go with "TOB was quiet"

Do I think Lewis can turn into the player you think he can be, no I dont.
Do I want him to become that player, you bet I do.

I guess my main point is maybe when Lewis has a quiet game you highlight that in the same way you highlight it, when TOB has a quiet one.

Or maybe just be a little even handed when discussing both players.

Yep. I have to agree with your comments. Except I do have a lot of hope Lewis will become a weapon as he develops. But hey, he's not there yet and needs time to work on various aspects of his game, especially when the ball hits the deck plus defensively. Like Clarko recently said in his press conference... The defensive side of today's game has become number one in importance. This is how turnovers are created and many goals kicked.....

 

[JZedd]

Lewis is 21. He's got over 4 years to get to O'Brien's stage.

You'd all be laughing if O'Brien was playing for any other team and you all read their supporters posting about him like you do in here. How do you all feel about Gary Rohan for example?

Wow... Over the top dude. You forget that we drafted O'Brien with stick arms and legs. You can see that his body has taken a lot of time to fill out, unlike say, Xavier Ellis, whose body wouldn't... Even though Ellis was clearly talented. To suggest we'd be laughing at O'Brien if he played for another side, is a SUPER sledge. Why don't you go and tell some of his teammates your thoughts... They'll quickly tell you what they think of O'Brien... And YOU. But yeah, you're entitled to your opinion.

 

[tige19]

Happy with your opinion even though I dont agree with it.

Maybe when you deliver that opinion about Lewis you can refrain from puting down TOB at the same time.

It can be done because even though I dont rate Lewis anywhere near as much as you do, I would never put s**t on the guy.

As I said when TOB had a fantastic 5 weeks last year I never read a word of praise from you about it. If Lewis had produced that sort of form you would have proclaimed him as the next "Carey".

So I did not read a word of praise about TOB last year even though most on here were wrapt at the footy he was playing.
Yet after one game this year you go with "TOB was quiet"

Do I think Lewis can turn into the player you think he can be, no I dont.
Do I want him to become that player, you bet I do.

I guess my main point is maybe when Lewis has a quiet game you highlight that in the same way you highlight it, when TOB has a quiet one.

Or maybe just be a little even handed when discussing both players.

I’m not putting him down, get a grip.

You are absolutely full of it, last year I categorically stated Tim left me with egg on my face and I retraced much of what my opinion was. I in fact stated he had proven himself as a serviceable senior footballer, I suggest you search my posts before stating nonsensical rubbish.

 

[Roddy]

At the end of the day I think this is the WORST time to drop O'Brien. Lewis is NOT as fit and prepared as last year due to interrupted surgery and other minor injuries. Remember last year he sacrificed a lot of his holiday time to train, which was a terrific attitude. Based on the praccy games you could see he wasn't ready. I reckon let's wait until he is flying at training before we rush him back. We need Lewis to also provide improved defensive pressure which helps if you're 100% fit. Either way it's great to have competition for spots.

Yep, short-term fitness wise, TOB for sure. Bigger picture thinking, Mitch is infinitely the greater prospect for a tall forward role.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Wow... Over the top dude. You forget that we drafted O'Brien with stick arms and legs. You can see that his body has taken a lot of time to fill out, unlike say, Xavier Ellis, whose body wouldn't... Even though Ellis was clearly talented. To suggest we'd be laughing at O'Brien if he played for another side, is a SUPER sledge. Why don't you go and tell some of his teammates your thoughts... They'll quickly tell you what they think of O'Brien... And YOU. But yeah, you're entitled to your opinion.

I didn't say that we'd be laughing at TOB. I said we'd be laughing at the posts in here if they were coming from opposition supporters. Try again.

 

[Brishawk]

At the end of the day I think this is the WORST time to drop O'Brien. Lewis is NOT as fit and prepared as last year due to interrupted surgery and other minor injuries. Remember last year he sacrificed a lot of his holiday time to train, which was a terrific attitude. Based on the praccy games you could see he wasn't ready. I reckon let's wait until he is flying at training before we rush him back. We need Lewis to also provide improved defensive pressure which helps if you're 100% fit. Either way it's great to have competition for spots.

Round 2 is months away

 

[Turly]

100% correct. Just a weird comment by ole mate Turly

Weird comment??

Stratts WILL have 5 kicked on him.

Stratts WILL get torn to shreds.

You’re either blind or require further education in English.

They were definitely not stated as opinions

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Weird comment??

Stratts WILL have 5 kicked on him.

Stratts WILL get torn to shreds.

You’re either blind or require further education in English.

They were definitely not stated as opinions

Essentially everything posted here is a opinion.

It's your opinion that those posts were posted as a fact. In the posters opinions Stratton was going to have 5 goals kicked on him.

 

[Turly]

Essentially everything posted here is a opinion.

It's your opinion that those posts were posted as a fact. In the posters opinions Stratton was going to have 5 goals kicked on him.

If it’s an opinion then just say IMO or I think or I believe?

Not that hard is it?

 

[TylerDurden]

Wow... Over the top dude. You forget that we drafted O'Brien with stick arms and legs. You can see that his body has taken a lot of time to fill out, unlike say, Xavier Ellis, whose body wouldn't... Even though Ellis was clearly talented. To suggest we'd be laughing at O'Brien if he played for another side, is a SUPER sledge. Why don't you go and tell some of his teammates your thoughts... They'll quickly tell you what they think of O'Brien... And YOU. But yeah, you're entitled to your opinion.

Ellis is 120kg now. Good paddock.

 

[Sixpence]

If it’s an opinion then just say IMO or I think or I believe?

Not that hard is it?

It's also not hard to understand context. We're talking future tense and clearly no-one here is actually Nostradamus so the reasonable assumption would be that they're giving an opinion. How can you state something as a fact that hasn't happened yet?

 

[Gralin]

It's also not hard to understand context. We're talking future tense and clearly no-one here is actually Nostradamus so the reasonable assumption would be that they're giving an opinion. How can you state something as a fact that hasn't happened yet?

The biggest issue is tone and context don't come across in text the way they do in conversation.

If people want to be able to have good discussions about football they need to be able to communicate with each other.

We've got a lot of posters that either don't think anything negative they say should be challenged or don't think anything positive is rational or realistic.
We've also got a lot of posters who think negative comments are insults, and that is as much about how it is being read as how it has been written.

If you're writing something critical that you take the time to explain it's very different to just making a statement. Same if you are saying something positive about someones game. We see a lot more good discussion I think when posters take the time to explain their views, it gives those with opposing views something to discuss, points to base rebuttals on etc

We have a lot of posts on here that aren't designed to allow discussion on what is posted. They are written as statements. Player x sucks, player y is awesome.

You've got no context for the view and it's just the equivalent of a bunch of people in a room shouting out their opinions all at the same time and calling it discussion.

We've gotten pretty lazy when it comes to reading and writing with social media. People are used to just posting one liners, we aren't sitting at a table as a group talking where a sentence here or there works especially with body language and tone helping the listeners understand.

Plenty of people act like Nostradamus on here too, guessing whats going to happen is a big part of the discussions on this board.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

If it’s an opinion then just say IMO or I think or I believe?

Not that hard is it?

It's not hard, but it literally doesn't need to be said.

It's even easier to understand that essentially every post is an opinion and doesn't need IMO to preface it. As Gralin has pointed out the real issue is the tone of the posts.

 

[Gralin]

It's not hard, but it literally doesn't need to be said.

It's even easier to understand that essentially every post is an opinion and doesn't need IMO to preface it. As Gralin has pointed out the real issue is the tone of the posts.

The bigger problem is how the tone can be intepreted based on what you write

 

[Sixpence]

The biggest issue is tone and context don't come across in text the way they do in conversation.

If people want to be able to have good discussions about football they need to be able to communicate with each other.

We've got a lot of posters that either don't think anything negative they say should be challenged or don't think anything positive is rational or realistic.
We've also got a lot of posters who think negative comments are insults, and that is as much about how it is being read as how it has been written.

If you're writing something critical that you take the time to explain it's very different to just making a statement. Same if you are saying something positive about someones game. We see a lot more good discussion I think when posters take the time to explain their views, it gives those with opposing views something to discuss, points to base rebuttals on etc

We have a lot of posts on here that aren't designed to allow discussion on what is posted. They are written as statements. Player x sucks, player y is awesome.

You've got no context for the view and it's just the equivalent of a bunch of people in a room shouting out their opinions all at the same time and calling it discussion.

We've gotten pretty lazy when it comes to reading and writing with social media. People are used to just posting one liners, we aren't sitting at a table as a group talking where a sentence here or there works especially with body language and tone helping the listeners understand.

Plenty of people act like Nostradamus on here too, guessing whats going to happen is a big part of the discussions on this board.

Agree with all of this.

FWIW, I think opinions can still be stupid, and still deserved to be called out, particularly ones like the bolded part (Talking in general here too, not specifically the Stratton comments). There's a difference though, as that type is just a statement, whereas the Stratton comments are referring to a future event. Saying Player X sucks doesn't require any predictions and even if you pre-faced it with "In my opinion", it wouldn't change how it reads. Quite simply, you can't state a future event as fact, therefore it can only be an opinion and doesn't require any further clarification. Whether you think it's a good or s**t opinion is an entirely different discussion.

 

[Endorphin Machine]

Imagine this place if we had lost

 

[joeyhawker]

TOB is an interesting player, very much in the Clarko mould

1. He does spill marks but I wonder if he's actually getting his hands to badly delivered kicks (where others may not) and if delivery was better he'd mark more. He often splits packs just by his athletic flies.
2. As a pinch hitter ruck he really impresses me with his timing and leap. More so than any of our other ricks - I'm talking centre bounces here. I'd need to do some analysis on our clearance % though to gauge effectiveness but at the least he'd upset the rythym of the opposition ruck as avoids contact completely almost.
3. The spilling of marks may almost be a concentration + strength factor, meaning just a bit of contact can upset his timing and concentration. To mark a ball cleanly in traffic you have to totally disregard almost everything but the ball - ie. eyes for the ball only.
4. He does the 1%ters and lays a good tackle
5. He's an excellent kick

So far he's not a buddy or roughie we all know. But he is talented and threatens to take the next step to consistent performances. That may only come once his role in the team is understood. And this may well be the critical factor as being a versatile player and being asked to change roles is not for every player and is a difficult thing to do if you've ever tried it yourself.

As a forward on the 3rd or 4th defender is probably his best role with some centre bounces pinch hitting.....in my only humble opinion

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