Mega Thread >>COVID-19 DISCUSSION THREAD<<

Remove this Banner Ad

Hi swans family,

I’ve been searching trying to find a figure for asymptomatic. I finally found a source with detailed study which commented that it’s modelling and many others in confirmation seem to suggest the asymptomatic percentage is 59-60%. If you recall the figure of asymptomatic on that cruise ship was 46.5% but that was with higher age demographic so 60% sounds right with full population demographic. This figure is very important because it then enables us to use existing data on reported cases to extrapolate the remainder herewith


Asymptomatic. 60%
Reported 40%
Serious & critical 2.1%
Death 1.08%

I would suggest that virtually all asymptomatic are under 65. Over 80% of those that die are over 65.

Over 65. 0.864%
Under 65. 0.216%

I hope you find this useful.

Your ‘Swans opposition statistician analyst’

Puke

It seems to me that this information is available but is intentionally being withheld. I suspect that is because the mortality of the virus is an important motivator to population behaviour. Fear of death will motivate social distancing which is an important determinant of virus progression and control.

I’m 62 and fit the category of 1 in 462 chance of death so I’m going to
P A R T Y.....on my own of course

Such a high percentage for asymptomatic has 3 important effects.

- herd immunity will occur more rapidly as the numbers of infected and with immunity is greater than thought

- there is greater chance of innocent transmission with 60% not knowing they have the virus

- the R0 number for the number of people one person infects is likely higher than the quoted figure of 2.5 instead being 6. Given that flu is 1.5 that is a massive R0. If the R0 hadn’t factored asymptomatic (as I suspect to date it hasnt) then the transmission will be extremely difficult to stop absent vaccine. it’s highly likely the vast majority of world population will become infected.
 
Last edited:
caesar88 said:
It’s gonna be interesting to see how Joe Biden will do getting the US economy back on track. He was part of an administration that brought America out of a recession, but he’s a bit past it IMO and this is a disaster on a far bigger scale.
Click to expand...


has to beat trump first
 

Log in to remove this ad.

The King! said:
has to beat trump first
Click to expand...
Easier said than done. A bit issue with the US is they don't have mandatory voting so only the far of either side want to vote and those in the middle don't care
 
From a footy perspective, I wonder what effect this interrupted, and potentially cancelled, season will have on our team. There are much greater concerns in the world but this is still our team and their careers and we're all on here because of the Swans. No doubt every team will be impacted in some ways but I can see some pros and cons for us, and it will probably depend on how much, if any, footy is played.

If the season resumes in June and the AFL somehow manages to crank out it's intended 144 games (I find this unlikely and would not be in favour of it), I think it will play into our hands. It will give us an extended pre-season basically. This would be advantageous for the younger players especially, who we often say we want to see after a few pre-seasons. Well, they're getting their chance here. In a sense it could help fast-track some of them. It also gives us a chance to have players like Buddy fully fit without the added pressure of potentially rushing him back.

If the season is cancelled, or the AFL manages nothing more than an eight-match fixture later in the season, I think that would be more costly for us. We're a very young side and what these boys need is experience. They need senior minutes. They need the lessons of losing and the infectiousness (no pun intended) of winning. They need to work on their chemistry with each other. The mosquito fleet of Papley, Gray and Ronke need games together to improve their dynamic. The next generation midfielders of Florent and Rowbottom need games together to work out how each other play, and Parker & Kennedy need games with them for that same reason. Naismith needs games with all those midfielders to build that connection (though he looked pretty good right off the bat last week). Brand needs games with Aliir and Rampe and Mills to become a cohesive back six. None of those things will happen if there's no season, or a significantly reduced season, in 2020. Would set the team back a bit IMO.
 
puke said:
Hi swans family,

I’ve been searching trying to find a figure for asymptomatic. I finally found a source with detailed study which commented that it’s modelling and many others in confirmation seem to suggest the asymptomatic percentage is 59-60%. If you recall the figure of asymptomatic on that cruise ship was 46.5% but that was with higher age demographic so 60% sounds right with full population demographic. This figure is very important because it then enables us to use existing data on reported cases to extrapolate the remainder herewith


Asymptomatic. 60%
Reported 40%
Serious & critical 2.1%
Death 1.08%

I would suggest that virtually all asymptomatic are under 65. Over 80% of those that die are over 65.

Over 65. 0.864%
Under 65. 0.216%

I hope you find this useful.

Your ‘Swans opposition statistician analyst’

Puke

It seems to me that this information is available but is intentionally being withheld. I suspect that is because the mortality of the virus is an important motivator to population behaviour. Fear of death will motivate social distancing which is an important determinant of virus progression and control.

I’m 62 and fit the category of 1 in 462 chance of death so I’m going to
P A R T Y.....on my own of course

Such a high percentage for asymptomatic has 3 important effects.

- herd immunity will occur more rapidly as the numbers of infected and with immunity is greater than thought

- there is greater chance of innocent transmission with 60% not knowing they have the virus

- the R0 number for the number of people one person infects is likely higher than the quoted figure of 2.5 instead being 6. Given that flu is 1.5 that is a massive R0. If the R0 hadn’t factored asymptomatic (as I suspect to date it hasnt) then the transmission will be extremely difficult to stop absent vaccine. it’s highly likely the vast majority of world population will become infected.
Click to expand...
Have you always been into conspiracy or is this a new thing?

Not judging, just wondering... ;)
 
caesar88 said:
It’s gonna be interesting to see how Joe Biden will do getting the US economy back on track. He was part of an administration that brought America out of a recession, but he’s a bit past it IMO and this is a disaster on a far bigger scale.
Click to expand...
I'd really like to know why you think he is 'past' it?
 
Kirkswan said:
I'd really like to know why you think he is 'past' it?
Click to expand...

His campaign message that he is the guy who can get things done across the aisle (which is itself an archaic view given how completely partisan the Republican party has become). His inability to get through a single televised segment without an incoherent sentence or gaffe. It's far from a major flaw, but I think it does point to the fact that age is catching up with him, and rather quickly (compare his public speaking even just four years ago to now), I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility to imagine that it could continue to catch up with him within the next four years, three of which he'd spend in the White House, as commander in chief and the leader of the free world.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

The King! said:
hes also almost 80
Click to expand...

Which I was trying to get at in a more gentle way :p

The King! said:
it will return afl will make sure of it
Click to expand...

I am thinking that way as well, though I don't think this will be much different by June. I could see the AFL getting the all-clear in July for a season starting up again in August, but I think it will end up a rubbish reduced season. Eight games or something.
 
caesar88 said:
Which I was trying to get at in a more gentle way :p



I am thinking that way as well, though I don't think this will be much different by June. I could see the AFL getting the all-clear in July for a season starting up again in August, but I think it will end up a rubbish reduced season. Eight games or something.
Click to expand...


i think it will go to december and mean shorter pre season next year

depends if people stay off the *en beach i guess
 
caesar88 said:
His campaign message that he is the guy who can get things done across the aisle (which is itself an archaic view given how completely partisan the Republican party has become). His inability to get through a single televised segment without an incoherent sentence or gaffe. It's far from a major flaw, but I think it does point to the fact that age is catching up with him, and rather quickly (compare his public speaking even just four years ago to now), I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility to imagine that it could continue to catch up with him within the next four years, three of which he'd spend in the White House, as commander in chief and the leader of the free world.
Click to expand...
Wow! I had no idea he was that old... okay, he probably is past it!

I think the USA is no longer the lead of the free world, not even by default...

The position currently stands vacant... I'm thinking someone will step up to the plate in about 8 - 9 months time.
 
Kirkswan said:
Wow! I had no idea he was that old... okay, he probably is past it!

I think the USA is no longer the lead of the free world, not even by default...

The position currently stands vacant... I'm thinking someone will step up to the plate in about 8 - 9 months time.
Click to expand...

Bear in mind I'm sure there are some very capable 80 year olds who could do the job bloody well. Just not sure Biden is one of them. I still think he'd make a good president if he has the right cabinet around him. If he picks the wrong cabinet... well, just look at Bush Jr.

Agree with your last two points, though I'm not holding my breath waiting for someone to lead the free world and lead it well. It's slightly disconcerting the decline of the great leader and the rise of the fascist/populist/general dumbass leader over the last decade.
 
caesar88 said:
Bear in mind I'm sure there are some very capable 80 year olds who could do the job bloody well. Just not sure Biden is one of them. I still think he'd make a good president if he has the right cabinet around him. If he picks the wrong cabinet... well, just look at Bush Jr.

Agree with your last two points, though I'm not holding my breath waiting for someone to lead the free world and lead it well. It's slightly disconcerting the decline of the great leader and the rise of the fascist/populist/general dumbass leader over the last decade.
Click to expand...
the USA is too big with too many people at the top (the president and congress), which makes unwieldy and cumbersome, and most of all difficult to effect change. Until that changes their leaders will be unable to lead...

Nool Carpenna said:
Reagan was first elected as an 80yo and served 2 terms.
Biden looks pretty spritely for his age but just seems to lack conviction to me
Click to expand...
The problem with being over 80 is not cognitive capacity...

it's that any significant illness significantly depletes your reserves, which leaves you vulnerable to the next significant illness, and so on...

So a heavy cold or a bad case of the flu can end up being the beginning of the end... regardless of well you are, this is the process... sometimes it can be weeks, sometimes months, sometimes years...

But regardless, once the process begins, your health becomes your primary focus, so it's really not an ideal time to run for president, but no reason not to be part of the cabinet, as you can easily be replaced if needs be.

As always, just my opinion.
 
caesar88 said:
Agree with your last two points, though I'm not holding my breath waiting for someone to lead the free world and lead it well. It's slightly disconcerting the decline of the great leader and the rise of the fascist/populist/general dumbass leader over the last decade.
Click to expand...
Not sure there's many dumbasses going around who are worth 3 billion.
 
wilsonmatic said:
Not sure there's many dumbasses going around who are worth 3 billion.
Click to expand...
You're probably right, but as my mum would say, he's the exception that proves the rule!
 
Kirkswan said:
Have you always been into conspiracy or is this a new thing?

Not judging, just wondering... ;)
Click to expand...

Don’t think it qualifies as conspiracy theory. They are facts. The information is available - I found it. Fact. It’s not been used. .Fact. Why wouldn’t it be used? The logical reason I’ve outlined and probably what I would do if I were in control too. Reasonable conjecture.

Do I think Hilary Clinton is a lizard alien in disguise. No though there is some similarity.
 
puke said:
Don’t think it qualifies as conspiracy theory. They are facts. The information is available - I found it. Fact. It’s not been used. .Fact. Why wouldn’t it be used? The logical reason I’ve outlined and probably what I would do if I were in control too. Reasonable conjecture.
Click to expand...

The Govt never tells us everything, apart from anything else they simply don't have the time... they'd need 3-4 someones talking 24/7 to tell us everything they do, and who the hell would be interested?

Yes the information is available, and if you want it you can get it... why should they spoon feed you?

The reason I mistakenly jumped to the conspiracy theory idea was that you appeared to believe that it had been hidden from us...

Sorry... hope you weren't offended!

Do I think Hilary Clinton is a lizard alien in disguise. No though there is some similarity.
Click to expand...
Lol! I don't believe in aliens, but some relation to lizards... strong possibility!
 
Nool Carpenna said:
Reagan was first elected as an 80yo and served 2 terms.
Biden looks pretty spritely for his age but just seems to lack conviction to me
Click to expand...

Reagan was elected as a 70 year old. By the time he left office he was the same age that Biden will be when he enters it. Reagan's cognitive functions were also diminishing during his second term. So not sure he is the best point of reference for Biden.

I agree though that Biden lacks conviction, which is why I could easily see him being easily led by his cabinet. Which is fine if you are an Eisenhower with a sound and stable cabinet around you, but quite literally deadly if you are a Bush with the likes of Cheney & Rumsfeld around you.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Remove this Banner Ad

Back
Top