List Mgmt. 2020 Draft

Live Draft Tracker

ScrappyDo

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 29, 2018
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Thanks to ferrisb for this excellent work.

UPDATE (26-Oct) - Have added in two more phantoms (now 11) and highlighted extra Academy/FS picks.

Hi all, I got bored at work so I decided to look at a number of phantom drafts and amalgamate them into a 'consensus ranking'.

I'm not sure this deserves its own thread, but my efforts last year generated some healthy discussion. Also, I think the exercise is especially useful this year as the lack of u18 form and exposure means rankings are likely to be more variable than usual.

1604612721665.png


Notes:
  • I used 11 phantoms in total (10 'power rankings', 1 mock draft)
  • Some phantoms had as few as 20 selections, some had as many as 50
  • Numbers in brackets show the range (min-max) they were picked across the phantoms
  • Players ranked on 1) How many phantoms they made THEN 2) Avg selection #
  • * means selected in only 1 phantom
  • Orange are academy/FS. Not sure I got them all (5-Oct: have updated as per feedback in this thread. thanks all)
List numbers analysis here:

 
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ScrappyDo

Norm Smith Medallist
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I guess if there's no season, Saints get pick 5 this year then...
That's my guess too.
Throw in smaller lists and a very compromised draft of questionable quality, l can see us taking maybe 1 draftee this year. Can't see us taking our 1st to the draft either..
 
Probably not the worst year to have traded out all of our late picks.
I feel they'll just not count this year and it'll be next year.

This year will be fresh in other words. Don't know how that'll go with the speciality picks though. Debt?
 
Oct 2, 2010
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I feel they'll just not count this year and it'll be next year.

This year will be fresh in other words. Don't know how that'll go with the speciality picks though. Debt?
Not sure what they will do, if we even have a draft.

Not honouring any of the traded draft picks in this years draft could also cause a bit of backlash from the clubs who traded into the first round this year.

But with the list sizes likely being slashed, clubs probably won't be taking as many players in the drafts anyway so not having late picks doesnt hurt as much in that scenario either.
 

ScrappyDo

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 29, 2018
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I can't see the sense in dramatically cutting list sizes, and to be honest l can't see the clubs going for it due to the impact on list strategies (Dmac).

They could probably cleave off
2-4 list spots by raising the draft age, but far better just to cut a deal with the AFLPA and reduce the cap and all contracts by %15
After tax it's not a big deal for anyone.
 

Keg on legs

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Maybe this is an option:

This year they just have a first round, one pick each per club. How they decide that is dependent on whether or not we re start this year and get some sort of reflective finishing order.

Then, any future picks that have been traded from last year carry over to 2021 draft

Not sure if that would work but just spitballing
 
Maybe this is an option:

This year they just have a first round, one pick each per club. How they decide that is dependent on whether or not we re start this year and get some sort of reflective finishing order.

Then, any future picks that have been traded from last year carry over to 2021 draft

Not sure if that would work but just spitballing

as long as the Dogs don’t get Ugle Hagen or what ever his name is I’m cool.
 

Keg on legs

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as long as the Dogs don’t get Ugle Hagen or what ever his name is I’m cool.

They'll get him, and probably for unders too. Other clubs seem hesitant to make clubs pay a fair premium for academy and father sons.

Maybe bulldogs do a GWS and look to move up the order to nab someone before the bid comes for Ugle.
 

ScrappyDo

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 29, 2018
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Maybe this is an option:

This year they just have a first round, one pick each per club. How they decide that is dependent on whether or not we re start this year and get some sort of reflective finishing order.

Then, any future picks that have been traded from last year carry over to 2021 draft

Not sure if that would work but just spitballing
Why not just run the draft as per normal?
Those who traded future picks are in no way disadvantaged, as they opted out anyway and have taken the value for it already in last year's draft.
There's no losers from going ahead with it.
 

Keg on legs

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Why not just run the draft as per normal?
Those who traded future picks are in no way disadvantaged, as they opted out anyway and have taken the value for it already in last year's draft.
There's no losers from going ahead with it.

I don't disagree but I'm not sure the clubs are keen with no exposed form this year. Either way, it's all speculative at this stage until we know what unfolds for the u18s this year
 

ScrappyDo

Norm Smith Medallist
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I don't disagree but I'm not sure the clubs are keen with no exposed form this year. Either way, it's all speculative at this stage until we know what unfolds for the u18s this year
Yes l can see the recruitment guys feeling the heat.
Though l still imagine there will be opportunity to hold the state carnivals and draft combines, and the players within the top 30 odd would all be known to every club already.
I can only see it being canceled if the league slash list sizes.
It would be a major bonehead move, but these are strange times..
 
To me there’s no need for permanent changes because of a one year problem. I’m sure at some stage they’ll be able to play even just a few games and then the recruiters will just have to make decisions based off that. They’ve been watching these kids for a year or two anyway.
 
May 29, 2012
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They'll need to let teams pick up academy and F/S picks, and there'll need to be at least a first round. You can't just leave the 18yr olds hanging over this (without a chance to earn a wage remember).

I think they'll do a first round as normal, then they'll have another round where it's almost entirely a bidding system using the picks you have this year, and any you don't use, you get as bonus picks in 2021 (maybe at end of the round they're due in, rather than based on position in 2020 or 2021).
 
May 29, 2012
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Controversial but I also think they might cancel the cap next year so that the teams who want to pay more to players to top up salary lost, can do so.
I suspect list sizes might be variable too. Let's be realistic Collingwood could delist 7 players but continue to pay them under their VFL side, where I don't think there's a hard cap? Whereas Saints couldn't.
Why not just let teams have an extended rookie list, but beyond player 34 everyone's on a really basic salary but then a significant AFL pay-per-game bonus...
 

ScrappyDo

Norm Smith Medallist
Mar 29, 2018
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Maybe if they cancelled this season, they could use the 2019 picks again. We would have pick 6, providing we dont give it away again.
Pick 5 if GC don't get another PP.
The most likely outcome imo.

Unfortunately by the looks of it there's probably 1, possibly 2 academy selections in the top 5 which will push us out a bit..

It's also not a good draft for mids.
The top kid Hollands has done an ACL, the next Phillip(s) is smallish and already physically developed, the biggest one is with GC academy, then there's one with the Pies and one with Sydney.
They're all playing in the game in the OP.
Every time l looked one of them up because they did something good, it was academy, FS, academy, academy... Bloody disappointing...

I think we'll trade our first pick again. There'll be a few clubs wanting an upgrade. .
 
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