Coronavirus/COVID-19

[wayniac]

I’m interested to know what data you think the gummint wants that they don’t already have.

Intersecting data that they don't have yet.

In the UK miners strike Thatcher instituted a law that forbid groups of 4 or more men meeting or travelling together. It was to break the flying pickets that were trying to get to the scab mine sites.

Retrospective fines for meeting ? Thatcher would have loved this surveillance technology. With a compliant police force, you can stamp on liberty at the stroke of a pen.

Speeding tickets issued from whizzing past a camera are not a great timely deterrent, as evidenced by how people accidentally get caught out. If you are pulled over at the time, you will probably slow down for the rest of the trip. Not long before we get elapsed time cameras, like the UK. Not something we vote for or get a choice on.

 

[dogwatch]

Looking at the numbers - both national and global - I don't think there's anywhere else in the world I'd rather be during this crisis than in Australia. Our results so far have exceeded most people's expectations of just a month ago, even surprising our own governments who were (wisely) preparing for a much wider spread of the disease. The danger isn't over by any means and the wariness of a second wave is justified. There is a strong chance that there is still a small amount of residual infection undetected out there in the community.

Nonetheless there is now an appropriate level of discussion of how, when and by how much we can ease restrictions. CMO Brendan Murphy was quoted this morning as saying that two weeks without new cases would place us in a strong position for partial easing off but he acknowledged that some states (eg SA, NT) might already be better placed than others (presumably including NSW, Vic, Tas).

I had a look at the worldometer stats and apart from the dubious numbers reported by China there's no major country in the world that is anywhere close to two weeks without new cases. Even here in Australia we have had only two days without new cases somewhere in the country since the end of February. Those days were 6 March and 23 April. In South Korea which has a similar case profile to ours (but looks to be 3-4 weeks ahead on the curve) they have managed to get cases down to very low numbers like ours but have been unable to stop sporadic new ones popping up each day, averaging about 10 a day for the last week. That's great progress, especially for a country of 50 million people but it demonstrates how hard it is to eliminate. The implications for only gradually easing off should be obvious.

The following three charts are directly from the worldometer site.

Australia (pop 25m+)


NZ (pop 4.8m+)

South Korea (pop 51m+)

You can see how there is a very long tail of daily new cases in South Korea, even though very small in number.

Naturally caution should be exercised in using any "cases" stats because the real number of cases is probably under-reported (mainly due to non-detection) in every country. Some countries would be massively under-reporting, others like Australia and NZ are probably within 20% of the true number.

Another interesting stat derived from the worldometer tables is the death rate per 1m population. From the media coverage you would think the USA is up near the top but in fact it just makes the top 10 (for this exercise I used a minimum of 4 million population as the cut-off). The 9 countries above it are all western European countries + Sweden.

Again deaths have probably been under-reported in every country with a high death toll so these figures won't be pinpoint accurate, but it gives a reasonable indication of which countries have been hardest hit.



Put another way it means one in every 1607 persons in Belgium has died of the disease. Scary numbers.

South Korea (4.7) sits 46th on that table. NZ (3.9) sits 52nd and Australia (3.3) sits in 57th, just above China (3.2). Japan (2.9) is 60th and Singapore (2.4) is 63rd.

There are 127 countries with 4 million or more people. It's hard to know how accurate the reporting is in third world and developing countries in the bottom half of that table but it's great news if they are genuinely able to keep their death rates down.

 

[Arkangel]

Good stuff. I'll go back and see if I can get through after hours. A couple of points, though. The graph shows
(a) an increase in 2015 & 2016, your table shows a decrease.
(b) a breakdown of emissions into categories, one of which is the energy industry. The figures in your table look to be closer to that sector, looks to be about 1/3 of overall emissions, rather than overall. Standing back, the overall reduction looks to be more pronounced than energy industry reduction.

Yep, those values in the table are exclusively the emissions from the energy sector (that seemed most relevant to me).

With regard to accessing the article, it’s worth noting I’m outside Australia, so that may be a factor (e.g., if the NBER makes their content freely available in some countries but not others).

 

[LittleG]

I know most will not happy with this post but you call it the way you see it. For those who do not like it is just an opinion based on what is current situation. Trump and many other leaders would get a zero for the way they handled this. Dictator Dan and most of the Aussie leaders would get a high score for their handling of the virus. Now Dan is losing points for just being pig headed/stubborn for not even considering to relax some things like other states. The AFL would be a better position to look at a recommencement if he did. Some might call him a GOLF spelt backwards.

The same Dan who threatened to go it alone with the lockdown and shamed the other states into action. That Dictator Dan?



Note:
I think he got the golf and fishing restrictions wrong.

 

[LittleG]

Yep, those values in the table are exclusively the emissions from the energy sector (that seemed most relevant to me).

With regard to accessing the article, it’s worth noting I’m outside Australia, so that may be a factor (e.g., if the NBER makes their content freely available in some countries but not others).

You can google it and go to the Berkeley article which is free.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

I know most will not be happy with this post but you call it the way you see it. For those who do not like it is just an opinion based on what is the current situation. Trump and many other leaders would get a zero for the way they handled this. Dictator Dan and most of the Aussie leaders would get a high score for their handling of the virus. Now Dan is losing points for just being pig headed/stubborn for not even considering to relax some things like other states. The AFL would be a better position to look at a recommencement if he did. Some might call him a GOLF spelt backwards.

Andrews has been the standout state leader throughout the Covid19 period. Some countries have seen a spike in Covid cases after easing restrictions so it makes sense to take precaution. I’m tipping if he did ease restrictions and we saw a spike, you’d be in to him about going too early lifting restrictions. I think you need to stop reading the Herald Sun, OD. Unless that’s the only reading material in that closet?

 

[ScragCity]

From the ABC and really interesting. Science is a passion of mine. So much you can learn and discover. This is about the Coronavirus with some interesting images:

'Quite terrifying': Australian scientists recall first sightings of the coronavirus

'Quite terrifying': Australian scientists recall first sightings of the coronavirus

To eyeball the virus is to know its shape and structure and begin to decipher its genomic mission, a vital first step in understanding how to neutralise it.

www.abc.net.au

Great article. The images of cells infected with virus were unnerving.

 

[ScragCity]

I know most will not be happy with this post but you call it the way you see it. For those who do not like it is just an opinion based on what is the current situation. Trump and many other leaders would get a zero for the way they handled this. Dictator Dan and most of the Aussie leaders would get a high score for their handling of the virus. Now Dan is losing points for just being pig headed/stubborn for not even considering to relax some things like other states. The AFL would be a better position to look at a recommencement if he did. Some might call him a GOLF spelt backwards.

Sorry OD, but I'm pretty sure you're the one who is "pig headed" due to the fact that you're so sure that you know what is in everyone's best interest. If you were a bit less sure of yourself you'd stop to consider the possibility that caution might be the best route forward despite your overwhelming impatience to go play golf. Andrews has earned my respect by sticking to the restrictions and not catering to the impatient and entitled portion of the population who can't think about bigger picture issues because they are so self-absorbed.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Sorry OD, but I'm pretty sure you're the one who is "pig headed" due to the fact that you're so sure that you know what is in everyone's best interest. If you were a bit less sure of yourself you'd stop to consider the possibility that caution might be the best route forward despite your overwhelming impatience to go play golf. Andrews has earned my respect by sticking to the restrictions and not catering to the impatient and entitled portion of the population who can't think about bigger picture issues because they are so self-absorbed.

So all the other state leaders are wrong, he cannot even consider making a change a few days earlier so it is legal to visit your mother on mothers day. That is pig headed to me.

 

[cecil]

So all the other state leaders are wrong, he cannot even consider making a change a few days earlier so it is legal to visit your mother on mothers day. That is pig headed to me.

Or we can test 100000 people who exhibit any amount of symptoms (even a cold) across the next two weeks to get a clearer picture of total case numbers in the community and make a much more informed decision. It's smart, not pigheaded.

 

[ScragCity]

So all the other state leaders are wrong, he cannot even consider making a change a few days earlier so it is legal to visit your mother on mothers day. That is pig headed to me.

We won't know who was right or wrong until we see the consequences of each state's decisions. It's also stupid to compare the policies of different states who have different situations. Victoria has a lot more cases than SA or WA or NT so it would make sense for us to be more cautious. NSW have decided to be a lot less cautious than us which provides us an opportunity to watch how it turns out for them before we rush to action. The benefits of opening up two weeks early are minimal and yet the risks are great.

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Or we can test 100000 people who exhibit any amount of symptoms (even a cold) across the next two weeks to get a clearer picture of total case numbers in the community and make a much more informed decision. It's smart, not pigheaded.

So you agree with Dan all the other states have got it wrong and they are going to have a second wave because their restrictions have been to loose and he is going to be Victoria's savior.

 

[dogwatch]

So you agree with Dan all the other states have got it wrong and they are going to have a second wave because their restrictions have been to loose and he is going to be Victoria's savior.

Sorry OD but as I see it that's just a petulant response that appears to be a deliberate misrepresentation of the points other posters have made, ignoring the nuances as well (e.g. different states have different circumstances). Either that, or I've over estimated your comprehension ability.

Yes, some posts are outright disagreeing with you, some other posts are saying let's wait and see how it pans out. It's fair enough for us all to hold different views, yours included. However it's not fair to misrepresent what others are saying.

 

[Norm De Guerre]

So all the other state leaders are wrong, he cannot even consider making a change a few days earlier so it is legal to visit your mother on mothers day. That is pig headed to me.

Will you be first in line to congratulate him if the course that he has set for the state proves to be the correct one? Somehow I really doubt you would be.

Time will tell if the path that Victoria has chosen is the correct one. However, the history of pandemics tells us that a cautious approach is the best one. Are you familiar with the US experience during the Spanish flu of 1918 and the consequences of getting back to normal too soon? As for the here and now. I will happily continue to forgo all leisure activities or (in your latest semantical shifting of the goal posts ) not go to see my mother for a few extra weeks if thats in my and my families best interest. Who's to say that you, me or anybody else who visits their mother on mothers day isn't currently an asymptomatic carrier of COVID-19 and that along with the flowers you also transit the virus to her? Happy mothers day mum, good luck with the virus one of us just gave you.

 

[Mattdougie]

Self isolation is finished now

There are more and more people on the road everyday even though kids aren’t at school and Bunnings is beyond a joke.

I haven’t had an issue with the iso but if 1282837 Indians can go to Bunnings Hoppers Crossing for no reason at all then it’s bullshit no one can play golf or fish or even have a small group over to catch up.

The lines at Bunnings at 1pm Anzac Day were absolutely ridiculous

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Sorry OD but as I see it that's just a petulant response that appears to be a deliberate misrepresentation of the points other posters have made, ignoring the nuances as well (e.g. different states have different circumstances). Either that, or I've over estimated your comprehension ability.

Yes, some posts are outright disagreeing with you, some other posts are saying let's wait and see how it pans out. It's fair enough for us all to hold different views, yours included. However it's not fair to misrepresent what others are saying.

As said in my original post I did not expect anyone to agree with me. However It seems anyone who has different view to the popular Bulldogs big footy views is just wrong plain wrong to express them. I been told to get out the country by Scrag City, I am petulant according to you plus other demeaning comments. I am might be dumb but I am not stupid. I know the majority of bulldog supporters are going to be strong labour supporters and anyone that has a negative comment about Dan is not going to be popular. For the record, I have no political allegiance either way and can say Bob Hawke was the best leader this country has ever had in my time by the length of the Flemington straight.

I have not misrepresented what people have said I merely have a different opinion by questioning the current restrictions imposed by Dan the Man.

I will not be posting again on this topic and cannot wait for footy gets back and being able to post an opinion on footy without getting attacked by everybody.

.

 

[ScragCity]

Is anyone else seriously questioning the viability of a hub system to restart the AFL?

Consider how many players have young families they'd not be willing to leave. For us that would be probably almost half our squad. If it did actually get off the ground it would probably look like an under 25 competition. I just can't see players being willing to subject themselves to 20 weeks away from home, living in isolation after they've just taken a massive pay cut already. What's the incentive for them to do it? There's no chance they are contractually obliged to do anything like this.
Even the players without children of their own obviously have family they won't want to abandon in the midst of a pandemic.

 

[ringa5]

Is anyone else seriously questioning the viability of a hub system to restart the AFL?

Consider how many players have young families they'd not be willing to leave. For us that would be probably almost half our squad. If it did actually get off the ground it would probably look like an under 25 competition. I just can't see players being willing to subject themselves to 20 weeks away from home, living in isolation after they've just taken a massive pay cut already. What's the incentive for them to do it? There's no chance they are contractually obliged to do anything like this.
Even the players without children of their own obviously have family they won't want to abandon in the midst of a pandemic.

Yes it should be up to the individual..
The season has become irrelevant now.IMO.
A State carnival with players that don't mind being isolated from their families makes more sense.

 

[Mattdougie]

As said in my original post I did not expect anyone to agree with me. However It seems anyone who has different view to the popular Bulldogs big footy views is just wrong plain wrong to express them. I been told to get out the country by Scrag City, I am petulant according to you plus other demeaning comments. I am might be dumb but I am not stupid. I know the majority of bulldog supporters are going to be strong labour supporters and anyone that has a negative comment about Dan is not going to be popular. For the record, I have no political allegiance either way and can say Bob Hawke was the best leader this country has ever had in my time by the length of the Flemington straight.

I have not misrepresented what people have said I merely have a different opinion by questioning the current restrictions imposed by Dan the Man.

I will not be posting again on this topic and cannot wait for footy gets back and being able to post an opinion on footy without getting attacked by everybody.

.

Welcome to my world mate

 

[Sharkey66]

Is anyone else seriously questioning the viability of a hub system to restart the AFL?

Consider how many players have young families they'd not be willing to leave. For us that would be probably almost half our squad. If it did actually get off the ground it would probably look like an under 25 competition. I just can't see players being willing to subject themselves to 20 weeks away from home, living in isolation after they've just taken a massive pay cut already. What's the incentive for them to do it? There's no chance they are contractually obliged to do anything like this.
Even the players without children of their own obviously have family they won't want to abandon in the midst of a pandemic.

As the rugby players have shown, as well as Hunter and the Adelaide player, they can't be trusted to follow the restrictions now, how can they be trusted to follow restrictions in the hub situation.
And those players ate just the ones that have been caught out.

 

[King Harold]

As said in my original post I did not expect anyone to agree with me. However It seems anyone who has different view to the popular Bulldogs big footy views is just wrong plain wrong to express them. I been told to get out the country by Scrag City, I am petulant according to you plus other demeaning comments. I am might be dumb but I am not stupid. I know the majority of bulldog supporters are going to be strong labour supporters and anyone that has a negative comment about Dan is not going to be popular. For the record, I have no political allegiance either way and can say Bob Hawke was the best leader this country has ever had in my time by the length of the Flemington straight.

I have not misrepresented what people have said I merely have a different opinion by questioning the current restrictions imposed by Dan the Man.

I will not be posting again on this topic and cannot wait for footy gets back and being able to post an opinion on footy without getting attacked by everybody.

The irony in your post here is you are basically accusing others of being “ barrackers “
exactly what you appear to be ?

Ive read through your posts , you have a dislike for Andrews , which is fine .
I am totally ambivalent to state governments / Andrews , but by any measure he seems to have done a pretty good job in this crisis. Is it perfect , probably not ?
Your stated problems with him seem pretty petty in context of how serious this all is.

.

 

[maddog37]

Welcome to my world mate

Are you ok diddums?? Poor little bugger.

 

[Norm De Guerre]

As said in my original post I did not expect anyone to agree with me. However It seems anyone who has different view to the popular Bulldogs big footy views is just wrong plain wrong to express them. I been told to get out the country by Scrag City, I am petulant according to you plus other demeaning comments. I am might be dumb but I am not stupid. I know the majority of bulldog supporters are going to be strong labour supporters and anyone that has a negative comment about Dan is not going to be popular. For the record, I have no political allegiance either way and can say Bob Hawke was the best leader this country has ever had in my time by the length of the Flemington straight.

I have not misrepresented what people have said I merely have a different opinion by questioning the current restrictions imposed by Dan the Man.

I will not be posting again on this topic and cannot wait for footy gets back and being able to post an opinion on footy without getting attacked by everybody.

You've posted a number of opinions that by your own admission would not be popular and got called on it.

If you Lead with the chin, then you can expect somebody to take a poke at it. Thats how message boards work.

Personally, I couldn't care less which personality or party is running the states response to the pandemic, what I care about is that he or she has the best interest of people of this state as their number one concern. If that means having an ultra cautious reopening of the economy and loosening of social restrictions, so be it. For the most part Im happy enough with how the federal government has handled things and if Micheal Obrien was the current premier and was running the similar playbook as the Andrews government I'd post my support of him as well.

 

[Sharpiesadog]

Yes it should be up to the individual..
The season has become irrelevant now.IMO.
A State carnival with players that don't mind being isolated from their families makes more sense.

I know an assistant coach with a club in Melbourne. His year 10 is struggling, his other kids are ok and his wife is a teacher who is working extra hard at the moment to keep doing her job.

Had a chat with her yesterday and the hub idea is a real issue for them due to their concern re their year 10 lad.

I would imagine there may be similar issues at essential staff at all clubs, many of whom are older and therefore more likely than younger players to have families. It's not just the players who need to be consulted about this.

 

[dogwatch]

I know an assistant coach with a club in Melbourne. His year 10 is struggling, his other kids are ok and his wife is a teacher who is working extra hard at the moment to keep doing her job.

Had a chat with her yesterday and the hub idea is a real issue for them due to their concern re their year 10 lad.

I would imagine there may be similar issues at essential staff at all clubs, many of whom are older and therefore more likely than younger players to have families. It's not just the players who need to be consulted about this.

It's a real dilemma. The players are copping a significant pay cut already and other staff have been stood down indefinitely. Naturally they want that to end but the pay cut will be greater and the stand downs go on longer if they don't get back to playing. Like a lot of the fallout elsewhere during the pandemic the impact is not spread evenly. Older players and staff with family are going to feel it more.

So you have to wonder - is a 20-week work shift in an isolation hub away from home the only option?

We can't count on restrictions getting lifted even further as the season progresses but of course that's a possibility. Even if they did ease restrictions the AFL would be reluctant to change course radically half way through the process. It could raise all sorts of further problems.

Playing 4-5 matches at a time in cycles of four-weeks-on and one-week-off might help, but it's not a whole lot better and it may exacerbate some of the health risks they are trying to minimise by having isolation hubs.

If they allow players to opt out for compassionate reasons (as I think they must) and those opt-outs reach 15-20% they might as well just call it an exhibition season. Sure, we'd all like to win every competition we enter but it would be a pretty shallow boast to say "we won the flag in 2020" if it was so compromised.