balmainforever
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AFL 2020 - AFL Round 2
- Thread starter balmainforever
- Start date
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- Mar 27, 2018
- 7,215
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- Collingwood
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- Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
never bet with emotion but Collingwood @2.45 is a nice price in a genuine 50/50 game
- Dec 2, 2017
- 29,292
- 17,860
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- Collingwood
Tough slate of games first up
Pies at a +20.5 line, into Port and Geelong looks the go for me
Pies at a +20.5 line, into Port and Geelong looks the go for me
- Sep 17, 2014
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Triple ur coin, all strait out to win.
Bris to beat freo
Port over Crows
Eags over GC
GWS to roll Kangs.
Get it done.
Bris to beat freo
Port over Crows
Eags over GC
GWS to roll Kangs.
Get it done.
That looks pretty solid
- Sep 17, 2014
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This Sportsbet multi is only 2.66 but pointsbet is 3 bucks.
4 leg multis are never solid.
Agreed, good value.
The Lions vs Freo looks safe, around $1.33 isn't anything to get too excited about though, it's probably slight value for their actual chances.
Eagles will win, but at $1.13 not worth touching in the unknown circumstances.
Collingwood looks okay as long as they stay above $2.40
Melbourne are $1.60 on Betfair to beat Carlton, I reckon the Dees are being underrated here, will have to check the teams named but I'm expecting a much better 2020 from Melbourne than last year.
The Hawks looked good in round 1, if they get close to $3 they might be worth a play, or take the + line as those games have a history of being close.
Tough round given so much uncertainty on the return, different venues, no crowds, different training parameters. Better to sit out to get a view on how teams have returned?
Eagles will win, but at $1.13 not worth touching in the unknown circumstances.
Collingwood looks okay as long as they stay above $2.40
Melbourne are $1.60 on Betfair to beat Carlton, I reckon the Dees are being underrated here, will have to check the teams named but I'm expecting a much better 2020 from Melbourne than last year.
The Hawks looked good in round 1, if they get close to $3 they might be worth a play, or take the + line as those games have a history of being close.
Tough round given so much uncertainty on the return, different venues, no crowds, different training parameters. Better to sit out to get a view on how teams have returned?
- Mar 27, 2018
- 7,215
- 18,870
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
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- Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Goal scorer markets up on SB.
im getting ahead of myself
Jack Martin represents value to me
2+ $3.75
3+ $11
Also like this SGM: WC win, Darling AGS, Ainsworth AGS $3.60
Keen to make some good bank this year.
im getting ahead of myself
Jack Martin represents value to me
2+ $3.75
3+ $11
Also like this SGM: WC win, Darling AGS, Ainsworth AGS $3.60
Keen to make some good bank this year.
- Jun 13, 2016
- 2,334
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- Essendon
Niiice.
Can't see as much value as Round 1, but a few Marshally things i like are:
Todd Marshall 2+ $4, 3+ $11 (port should win easily and he kicked 2.2 in Round 1)
Rowan Marshall 2+ $13, 3+ $81 (didn't work out for me in Round 1, but will still play 40-50% fwd against a team that always struggles against multiple talls. Value there considering market is based on him playing full time ruck).
Hopefully there are some positional change murmurings to create some value.
Can't see as much value as Round 1, but a few Marshally things i like are:
Todd Marshall 2+ $4, 3+ $11 (port should win easily and he kicked 2.2 in Round 1)
Rowan Marshall 2+ $13, 3+ $81 (didn't work out for me in Round 1, but will still play 40-50% fwd against a team that always struggles against multiple talls. Value there considering market is based on him playing full time ruck).
Hopefully there are some positional change murmurings to create some value.
- Sep 17, 2014
- 1,152
- 1,292
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Me same game multis. All anytime goal scorers.
Cats v Hawks. Ablett, Miers, Mitch Lewis - 4.33 - Tim O'Brien 2 bucks if forward too.
Syd v Ess. Devon Smith, Will Hayward - 4.50. Laverde 1.90 and Devon Smith 2.40 both look overs
Gws v Kangs. Zac Langdon, Greene, Larkey - 3.60
GC v Eags. Sexton, Kelly - 2.50
Pear v Cows. Rozee, Lachy Murphy - 2.75
Carl v Melb. Jack Martin, Mitch Brown - 2.80
Bris v Freo. McLuggage, Rayner - 3.10
StK v Dogs. Lonie, Bont - 2.80. Also like Dean Kent at 2.25 by himself.
Coll v Rich - Tiges list not up yet.
Mainly 2 leggers, trying not to get too greedy.
Cats v Hawks. Ablett, Miers, Mitch Lewis - 4.33 - Tim O'Brien 2 bucks if forward too.
Syd v Ess. Devon Smith, Will Hayward - 4.50. Laverde 1.90 and Devon Smith 2.40 both look overs
Gws v Kangs. Zac Langdon, Greene, Larkey - 3.60
GC v Eags. Sexton, Kelly - 2.50
Pear v Cows. Rozee, Lachy Murphy - 2.75
Carl v Melb. Jack Martin, Mitch Brown - 2.80
Bris v Freo. McLuggage, Rayner - 3.10
StK v Dogs. Lonie, Bont - 2.80. Also like Dean Kent at 2.25 by himself.
Coll v Rich - Tiges list not up yet.
Mainly 2 leggers, trying not to get too greedy.
- Mar 27, 2018
- 7,215
- 18,870
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
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- Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
What a shout.
Rowan smashed into $3.25 & $9!
Can already cash out for a 3U profit... but why would we do that haha
- Jun 13, 2016
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Todd taken into $2.88 for 2+ (from $4) and $7.50 3+ (from $11) as well.
You asked for it...
Edit:
The hit on Rowan i think will be because training reports from the saints board say he's training with the forward group atm.
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Red Dog Styles
Club Legend
While i agree port should win this. people forget how close showdowns get even when one team is more expected to win coming into the showdown. 32/47 showdowns have been decided by 28pts or less. 24/47 decided by 20pts or less.
im thinking of jumping on the port margin 1-39 @1.91 just because there's no port fans to cheer port on when they do start winning the game..
(Id also be interested to know the number of times the underdog of the day has won the showdown / covered the line.)
- Mar 27, 2018
- 7,215
- 18,870
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
Coll/Rich Pinnacle Total:
O/U: 139.5 - $1.892
Coll:
O: 65.5 - $1.847
U: 65.5 - $1.862
Rich:
O/U: 73.5 - $1.854
Tight lines, but probably what we can expect in coming days for totals
O/U: 139.5 - $1.892
Coll:
O: 65.5 - $1.847
U: 65.5 - $1.862
Rich:
O/U: 73.5 - $1.854
Tight lines, but probably what we can expect in coming days for totals
- Dec 2, 2017
- 29,292
- 17,860
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
Both will be playing explosive forward lines who are quick and score aplenty
That’s easily going over for my liking, barring s**t weather
With little data to speak of ,the shorter game Totals are a tough call . In Coll V Rich past 5 matches the total has gone under the expected
- Jun 13, 2016
- 2,334
- 20,538
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- Essendon
Match Unders Double:
BL/Freo u131.5 (pouring all week up there)
Ess/Swans u136.5 (low skilled teams both with big outs in the fwd lines, possibly wet)
$3.64 b365.
Also expecting a general rustiness across the league resulting in lower scores but like these 2 in particular.
BL/Freo u131.5 (pouring all week up there)
Ess/Swans u136.5 (low skilled teams both with big outs in the fwd lines, possibly wet)
$3.64 b365.
Also expecting a general rustiness across the league resulting in lower scores but like these 2 in particular.
- Jun 13, 2016
- 2,334
- 20,538
- AFL Club
- Essendon
Also early SGM Ess/Syd:
u136.5
AGS: Townsend, Hayward
$8 SB
u136.5
AGS: Townsend, Hayward
$8 SB
squeaky1000
Team Captain
- Apr 30, 2018
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Early plays
2.5 units multi Lions, Eagles, Giants H2H $2.05
3.5 units GWS -19.5 $1.91
1 unit Port H2H $1.50
0.2 units multi Pies +7.5, Lions H2H, Port -13.5, Eagles H2H, GWS -19.5, Bombers H2H, Dogs H2H $31
2.5 units multi Lions, Eagles, Giants H2H $2.05
3.5 units GWS -19.5 $1.91
1 unit Port H2H $1.50
0.2 units multi Pies +7.5, Lions H2H, Port -13.5, Eagles H2H, GWS -19.5, Bombers H2H, Dogs H2H $31
- Mar 27, 2018
- 7,215
- 18,870
- AFL Club
- Collingwood
- Other Teams
- Cleveland Browns, Tony Ferguson
playing around with cross game goal kickers.
I like this
Mihocek, Townsend & J.Cripps AGS $4.21 SB
I like this
Mihocek, Townsend & J.Cripps AGS $4.21 SB
Red Dog Styles
Club Legend
Great advice, please keep it coming, have always admired your analysis, not always betting but have loved seeing your picks through
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