Corona virus, Port and the AFL. Part 2.

[pastmyprimus]

With the positive test from the protest march in Vic, I think it's becoming more certain that Vic clubs will need to go to an interstate hub. Marshall and McGowan won't be opening up their borders to Victoria any time soon.

 

[Capital Power]

With the positive test from the protest march in Vic, I think it's becoming more certain that Vic clubs will need to go to an interstate hub. Marshall and McGowan won't be opening up their borders to Victoria any time soon.

I wish we could close ours. I've stopped going out again .

 

[PowerBaz]

Gotta love the PM...... Charge them if the protest again !





But previously lets delay the corwd gathering so I can go to church the Hillson conference with all my friends....

 

[Lawnchair Larry]

A while back wondered about the “sawtooth” on the top of the daily reports of confirmed cases of Covid19.
Turns out it is not unique to Aust.
A good example is Japan and I measured the instantaneous slopes of the “per Day”data to get the “per Day per Day” (acceleration/ deceleration curve) for that country.

I tried a technique called Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) on the acceleration-deceleration curve (LHS plot). This is equivalent to taking a complex sound wave and separating it into individual frequencies. It tries to interpret the complex pattern of the “per Day per Day” data as the addition of sine waves of defined frequency and amplitude. I am more interested in the distance in days between peak maxima or peak minima than frequency – “Periodicity” of the individual frequency components - related as [1/frequency]. It converts “Cycles per Day” to “Days per Cycle”. The amplitude of the output will reflect the relative significance of the outputs. Here’s what happens to the “per Day per Day” data after the FFT of Japan:

I have marked the quoted incubation period of 5.1 days on the LHS plot, but without much conviction. It may or may not have implications for the incubation period assessment.
I kind of get that there might be a relationship between the acceleration/ deceleration of confirmed cases and incubation period, but it does not quite gel. If it were related then there is the possibility that there is more than one incubation period. Genetic differentiation? Virus modification?
Basically this is speculation, but interesting.
For all I know it could be a matter related to data collection.
Here is Japan overlain with world data evaluated using the identical method. There are strong similarities.

Australia and France are less well defined but show similarities to each other. They seem to emphasise lower periodicities in comparison to the world assessment.

This is pretty deep water.

 

[pastmyprimus]

I wish we could close ours. I've stopped going out again ☹.

As a South Australian who moved to Vic, I'm keen to get back to SA for a holiday. But I can understand why Marshall keeps the borders closed. Once you achieve elimination you don't want to give it up lightly.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Marshall speaking to the media. Waiting to see if the reporter who suggested we should have some compassion with the Crows breach says the same about Ollie

 

[Jonts]

Uh oh

This is why the showdown is limited to only 2000 fans.

 

[Interstater]

This is why the showdown is limited to only 2000 fans.

 

[Palpatine_Power]

Haven't read the thread. Ollie isn't picked this this week and was relatively shitty about it. Doubt the interview was an honest 'mistake'.

 

[OneGreatClub]

A while back wondered about the “sawtooth” on the top of the daily reports of confirmed cases of Covid19.
Turns out it is not unique to Aust.
A good example is Japan and I measured the instantaneous slopes of the “per Day”data to get the “per Day per Day” (acceleration/ deceleration curve) for that country.
View attachment 890220
I tried a technique called Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) on the acceleration-deceleration curve (LHS plot). This is equivalent to taking a complex sound wave and separating it into individual frequencies. It tries to interpret the complex pattern of the “per Day per Day” data as the addition of sine waves of defined frequency and amplitude. I am more interested in the distance in days between peak maxima or peak minima than frequency – “Periodicity” of the individual frequency components - related as [1/frequency]. It converts “Cycles per Day” to “Days per Cycle”. The amplitude of the output will reflect the relative significance of the outputs. Here’s what happens to the “per Day per Day” data after the FFT of Japan:
View attachment 890222
I have marked the quoted incubation period of 5.1 days on the LHS plot, but without much conviction. It may or may not have implications for the incubation period assessment.
I kind of get that there might be a relationship between the acceleration/ deceleration of confirmed cases and incubation period, but it does not quite gel. If it were related then there is the possibility that there is more than one incubation period. Genetic differentiation? Virus modification?
Basically this is speculation, but interesting.
For all I know it could be a matter related to data collection.
Here is Japan overlain with world data evaluated using the identical method. There are strong similarities.
View attachment 890229
Australia and France are less well defined but show similarities to each other. They seem to emphasise lower periodicities in comparison to the world assessment.
View attachment 890231
This is pretty deep water.

Yep you lost me

 

[manureid]

Haven't read the thread. Ollie isn't picked this this week and was relatively shitty about it. Doubt the interview was an honest 'mistake'.

Inside info?

 

[Coobk001]

This is why the showdown is limited to only 2000 fans.

Is it?

Has Melbourne had 50 days with only 2 cases? With a prolonged downward curve even before that?

The reason we are limited to 2000 is because our government is moving at snails pace and being way to risk adverse, at a time when the risk is so miniscule that it is not worth the cost to the economy and to life in SA. Ultimately there is no Corona virus in SA, 70,000 tests have been conducted in the last 50 days, no community transmission has occured in that time and only 1 case came over the border and didn't affect any contacts, and 1 dormant isolated case was detected.

There is no reason within SA for us not to release a lot of restrictions and have a way bigger crowd.


WA have had far less success with Corona, and yet they are already open for groups of 100, with 300 total in venues! It's crazy that we are so far behind them. SA is such a friggin nanny state.

 

[Coobk001]

Haven't read the thread. Ollie isn't picked this this week and was relatively shitty about it. Doubt the interview was an honest 'mistake'.

The Chris Davies presser seems to indicate we have picked him, but it'll be up to the AFL to decide if he is suspended or not.

 

[Adz2332]

ess player banned for a match.... covid protocols

Ollie will get at least one

 

[Arsene Wenger]

Will get one week. Dont think he was going to be selected anyway.

 

[manureid]

Lol. If that happens then makes a joke out of the whole Crows break of protocols punishment. And Theo may not have got the info he wanted from social media trawling, but got a win in the end.

 

[RossFC]

At least Boak and Rockliff won't be moved out of position.

 

[OneGreatClub]

Is it?

Has Melbourne had 50 days with only 2 cases? With a prolonged downward curve even before that?

The reason we are limited to 2000 is because our government is moving at snails pace and being way to risk adverse, at a time when the risk is so miniscule that it is not worth the cost to the economy and to life in SA. Ultimately there is no Corona virus in SA, 70,000 tests have been conducted in the last 50 days, no community transmission has occured in that time and only 1 case came over the border and didn't affect any contacts, and 1 dormant isolated case was detected.

There is no reason within SA for us not to release a lot of restrictions and have a way bigger crowd.


WA have had far less success with Corona, and yet they are already open for groups of 100, with 300 total in venues! It's crazy that we are so far behind them. SA is such a friggin nanny state.

Stfu I love SA

 

[Del80659]

Haven't read the thread. Ollie isn't picked this this week and was relatively shitty about it. Doubt the interview was an honest 'mistake'.

so its just a smokescreen. it always is. we should've known considering it came from channel 7. to have a wider perspective we know he's just being managed through this year before going "home"

 

[Coobk001]

Will get one week. Dont think he was going to be selected anyway.

Surely the latter part couldn't be true. No one's played in 11 weeks so he's as well prepared as everyone else, and he's our VC. If he's fit in this scenario he should be playing. If he actually wasn't going to be selected that's a huge worry for us and him that we have a VC who's not in our best 22 anymore.

 

[Chewy316]

At least Boak and Rockliff won't be moved out of position.

Exactly. Both are more consistent in their roles than Ollie as well. Also means that Houston can be the 3rd primary on baller which complements the inside grunt we already have.

 

[Interstater]

Surely the latter part couldn't be true. No one's played in 11 weeks so he's as well prepared as everyone else, and he's our VC. If he's fit in this scenario he should be playing. If he actually wasn't going to be selected that's a huge worry for us and him that we have a VC who's not in our best 22 anymore.

I look at it the other way, if he can't make the side that's a good sign.
I don't care if he is a VC or not, merit based selection with an eye on balance is appropriate.

 

[Adz2332]

so its just a smokescreen. it always is. we should've known considering it came from channel 7. to have a wider perspective we know he's just being managed through this year before going "home"

and his currency keeps going down down down

 

[bomberclifford]

You do realise that most of Port's admin have been stood down?

Oh Heck let's just blame this stuff up on Ken and KT as well!

Or maybe, just maybe, the club and its supporters have a right to expect 25 year old highly paid adults to do what they are fricken told and take responsibility for their own actions?

ok Mr Ranty Pants

 

[raptalia]

I have just listened to an ABC interview with one of the protestors planning the rally in Sydney tomorrow. He represented the Refugee Action Coalition mob that appears to be following the BLM band wagon. He spoke in broken English but made the point that he felt there was no better time to protest than now and he displayed absolutely no regard for the danger. It was as if COVID-19 did not exist.

What happened to 'we are all in this together' ?