Preview Round 5, Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide

[Jivlain]

Brisbane Lions vs Port Adelaide - Saturday 4/7/2020, 7:40pm (Brisbane time) at the Gabba

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Last time we played
Round 17, 2019. Port Adelaide forgot to play football and decided instead to focus all of their attention on tagging and scragging Lachie Neale. They did restrain Neale to 24 disposals and a single Brownlow vote but in the meantime Brisbane booted the first seven goals, with Jarryd Lyons running riot through the midfield and Charlie Cameron kicking four goals.

King Charles?

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Charlie Dixon is currently leading the Coleman race with 11 goals. Can parliament, led by speaker Harris Andrews, restrain him? We've prevented any tall forward from kicking a bag this year, with none booting more than two goals against us so far. We also kept Charlie to a single goal in our last matchup.

We also have a claimant to the throne. Can Charlie Cameron lead a Glorious Revolution and edge ahead?

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The Butcher's Bill
For all the success the Fagan-Noble regime has brought to the Gabba, one thing that's not really happened so far is developing a habit of ruthlessly putting an opponent to the sword. We've only won two games by more than 10 goals - against Carlton and a fatigued Gold Coast. Butchery has, by comparison, defined Port's season to date, currently sitting pretty on a percentage of 236.3%.

Of course, had we had our goal radar switched on last week against Adelaide, this would be a bit different.

3 wins, 120.5% (LWWW)

4 wins, 236.3% (WWWW)
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Changes
We will lose skipper Zorko with a calf complaint. We have an exciting range of young midfielders to choose from to replace him, or could go for the experience of Bundy Christensen. Stef has been recovering from a hamstring and may return for Smith. Port looks set to go in unchanged.

Weather
Sunny.


Prediction
This is a difficult one to predict. What with #hublife, both sides have faced the bottom three sides in the competition over the last three week (though those ladder positions are exacerbated by sharing a hub with the competition-leading Port, Brisbane, and a Rowell-inspired Gold Coast). It's a difficult call, but I think the true kings of the jungle will prevail.

 

[Ironmonger]

Good preview.

Super excited about this one. We want big games against great teams this year to build the resilience in our team. Port are playing the best footy in the league right now, and we'll need everyone at their best to beat them.

 

[Elixuh]

Nice preview, should be a really entertaining game.

 

[luthor]

Great preview

Dixon is a threat but we have an All Australian defender who I am confident will rise to the occasion and keep the beast in check.

I'm actually more worried about their smaller forwards like Rozee, Motlop and Gray.

It's typically those types that have worried us in the past.

Tough match to predict.

Both sides have weapons in attack and can score quickly.

Despite the fact that Port have a superior scoring record against our mutual hub opponents, it's been partly due to them getting the Suns before they were "good" and also due to our dreadful conversion rate.

Port 50 Goals 34 behinds in 4 matches

Lions 41 Goals 48 behinds in 4 matches

So we've actually had 5 more scoring shots than them .

As long as we can fix our goal kicking yips, I'm reasonably confident we can get away with the choccies

Lions by 8 points in a close one

 

[Nunez]

What impact will15k + Lions fans have?

Time to be the 23rd man my friends. BRAB to lead the chants.

 

[lionshine]

Could be a Grand Final preview. I'd be so excited for a GF v Port.

 

[BRAB]

Could be the last game I get to watch live for a while (assuming I get lucky in the ballot again) so I'll be making an effort to just enjoy a quality game of football and not stress out too much.

Port have looked very good this year. Will be interesting to see if we can keep up with them.

 

[snooplions]

Could be a Grand Final preview. I'd be so excited for a GF v Port.

War-time flashbacks to 2004 GF. I cried so hard. Like ugly cried. Am fully committed to doing that again for a shot at being premiers.

 

[Dylan12]

I'm actually more worried about their smaller forwards like Rozee, Motlop and Gray.

It's typically those types that have worried us in the past.

I have a similar concern.

The more I think of it, the more I worry that their pace will worry our defenders that play on small(s) which comprises Rich, Birchall, Lester and Starcevich. I also don't rate Ah Chee and am concerned that his lack of knowledge of our game plan (its possibly something else) is still creating issues each game. I think I'd like an Answerth in for either a Birchall or Ah Chee this week.

 

[The Zork]

Mids without Zorko I think is about even. Plenty of grunt on both sides with quality rotations.

Tall forwards I’d give them the advantage at the minute.
Small forwards both sides pretty dangerous I’d call it even or maybe advantage marginally to us.

Home ground may give us a couple shots on goal advantage - whether we take advantage of those shots could be the difference.

Should be a close game. Wouldn’t surprise me if they jump us and we have to peg them back.

 

[briztoon]

Mids without Zorko I think is about even. Plenty of grunt on both sides with quality rotations.

Tall forwards I’d give them the advantage at the minute.
Small forwards both sides pretty dangerous I’d call it even or maybe advantage marginally to us.

Home ground may give us a couple shots on goal advantage - whether we take advantage of those shots could be the difference.

Should be a close game. Wouldn’t surprise me if they jump us and we have to peg them back.

One stat for the rebooted season I heard today, is that every team leading by 7 points or more at quarter time, has won the game.

The only asterix is that said information came from David King.

 

[Nunez]

One thing worth noting is we've generated more scoring shots this season than Port have - obviously that is skewed a little due to our plethora of behinds on the weekend, but if we scored at an AFL average level our % would be a lot closer to Port than it currently is.

We may well lose, but ultimately I don't think we should fear Port Adelaide - our best will get it done. The question is - can we play at our best?

 

[FLVanLandingham]

The pettiness in me wants Dixon to be absolutely smothered by Andrews just so the media shut up about him. I hope that weather forecast stays..the game did dry up later in our last match, but I'm still waiting for a beautiful footy day

Hopefully our 3rd qtr slump and kicking woes can fire us up, Lions by 38. McCarthy and Big O to score 3 each, Neale and McCluggage to score 1.0 and 2.1 respectively.

 

[Dylan12]

The only asterix is that said information came from David King.

Who was fed the information directly from Champion Dara.

 

[GremioPower]

Great preview

Dixon is a threat but we have an All Australian defender who I am confident will rise to the occasion and keep the beast in check.

I'm actually more worried about their smaller forwards like Rozee, Motlop and Gray.

It's typically those types that have worried us in the past.

Tough match to predict.

Both sides have weapons in attack and can score quickly.

Despite the fact that Port have a superior scoring record against our mutual hub opponents, it's been partly due to them getting the Suns before they were "good" and also due to our dreadful conversion rate.

Port 50 Goals 34 behinds in 4 matches

Lions 41 Goals 48 behinds in 4 matches

So we've actually had 5 more scoring shots than them .

As long as we can fix our goal kicking yips, I'm reasonably confident we can get away with the choccies

Lions by 8 points in a close one

One needs to look also at the "Scoring Against." Overall, we have had a better game than you against Freo; you have had a better game than us against the Crows (but for accuracy); and the matches v. WC were similar.

Attached, the numbers on the common opponents.

 

[dlanod]

One stat for the rebooted season I heard today, is that every team leading by 7 points or more at quarter time, has won the game.

The only asterix is that said information came from David King.

The telecast on the weekend said the first team to 60 has won every game this season (right about when we stalled at 53 or 54 in the third quarter).

Having a look at the results, while this is true it's also because a lot of teams haven't even scored 60 points in their games at all.

 

[jjami15]

For this game I am not looking at the win/losses or % as we’ve basically played against the same teams. Of these they’re propping up the ladder. My indicator is who has looked ‘on’ and sadly it isn’t us. If we are to win I believe we will need a considerable jump in focus and ‘team’ football.

 

[3KZ is Football]

We need to treat this game like a FINAL and play accordingly. We were bundled out in straight sets last season, despite having two home finals and we can’t let that happen again. We need to turn up an play our best football for four quarters and we can’t afford to have passengers on the field. Anything less and we lose.

 

[DERRINALPHIL]

I hope our two key forwards both take more contested marks than McCarthy. Is it too much to hope for a match winning bag from them?

Port were so unreliable last year. The fluctuations, week to week, became rather amusing (not to Port fans). They had plenty of good wins and so let's see what they bring to the table.

Berry in and Stef if fit will replace Archie. I would like Bundy bur Fages rarely changes his hierarchy.

Has anyone any news on getting tickets to the Collingwood game? I would also be prepared to go to Sydney. What's happening with those tickets?

 

[Fagenslions36]

I’m pretty sure there is a bloke who doesn’t need to worry about pace it’s starcevich . He has plenty .

I have a similar concern.

The more I think of it, the more I worry that their pace will worry our defenders that play on small(s) which comprises Rich, Birchall, Lester and Starcevich. I also don't rate Ah Chee and am concerned that his lack of knowledge of our game plan (its possibly something else) is still creating issues each game. I think I'd like an Answerth in for either a Birchall or Ah Chee this week.

 

[Dalions]

I hope our two key forwards both take more contested marks than McCarthy. Is it too much to hope for a match winning bag from them?

Port were so unreliable last year. The fluctuations, week to week, became rather amusing (not to Port fans). They had plenty of good wins and so let's see what they bring to the table.

Berry in and Stef if fit will replace Archie. I would like Bundy bur Fages rarely changes his hierarchy.

Has anyone any news on getting tickets to the Collingwood game? I would also be prepared to go to Sydney. What's happening with those tickets?

It will more than likely be another slippery and dewy game on Saturday night.
So it may be a bit more of a small mans game again, similar to the last couple.

 

[Mighty Lions]

It will more than likely be another slippery and dewy game on Saturday night.
So it may be a bit more of a small mans game again, similar to the last couple.

It will always be a small mans game while we continue to play the style of footy we play.

 

[jackess]

It will always be a small mans game while we continue to play the style of footy we play.

I'd argue the complete opposite given we move the ball so slowly and kick to packs often. I think this is the main reason we play 2 rucks every week so we have another tall target around the ground.

 

[Nunez]

I'd argue the complete opposite given we move the ball so slowly and kick to packs often. I think this is the main reason we play 2 rucks every week so we have another tall target around the ground.

I think he's referring to our inside 50 tactics.

 

[jackess]

I think he's referring to our inside 50 tactics.

It might be conducive to smalls kicking more goals but still relys heavily on the talls creating contests.