AFL 2020 - AFL Round 5

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Am I the only person who thinks the Suns should be favourites in this one?

Geelong are mediocre. And they have just lost their AA defender in Tom Stewart. He tends to lead them for marks and metres gained.

Who've they replaced him with? Harry Taylor. He was a genuine superstar back in his day, but he's 34 years old now.

For that reason alone Geelong should be nowhere near $1.20 favourites.

You don't take an elite marking / rebounding defender out of a modern AFL team without it seriously hurting. Just ask Collingwood.

(By the way, I was on Ess -15.5 last night, largely for the same reason. That final minute killed me. Maybe I'm on tilt, take my post with a grain of salt).

Do you believe in sports psychology? Geelong have gone w-l-w-l since the middle of last year.

No jokes, the streak goes back to Rd 12 last year. And they won last week...

Want more? Look up who Gold Coast belted in their first preseason match this year. That's right, Geelong: 122 to 54.

Geelong's best player that night was Atkins, and he is going to be spending this match with Stewart on the sidelines due to injury.

Sexton kicked six that night, and in his most recent H&A match against Geelong he kicked 3.2. I'm on him for 2g+, 3g+ and 4g+.

I'm also on Rowell for 2g+ and 3g+. He has been kicking goals as a midfielder and if Geelong tag him, he might do even more damage as a forward.

I'm also on Gold Coast ftw @ 4.75 (betfair), 40+ @ 41 (SB), and 60+ @ 326 (SB).

I'd be more more cautious if there were a crowd to celebrate the Cat milestones but the empty theatre might work against them if things get tough.

Just imagine being there as your club's GOAT, son of the other GOAT, loses his 350th to the club he left you for, and then left again.

In front of an empty stadium which you know you will have to vacate for a few weeks due to the virus thing.

If the Gold Coast hit the scoreboard early then the handbags will be out in full force, lads.

And the umpires are having a huge influence on matches lately. I don't like it but it is the reality.

Who are they more likely to favour at AFL House? The strategic franchise and good news story, or the bloke who trashed their brand by walking out?

I'm on the umpires to help bury Geelong in what will go down as an all-time upset classic down at the Cattery.

Gold Coast by plenty. Sexton and Rowell to score several apiece.

Scott to be looking over his contract to make sure it has a full payout clause so he gets his money for '21 and '22 when the axe falls.

And if I'm wrong, if Geelong win, and I lose all 10U I've put on this match, then I'm done punting for a while. At least a month off for me.

You can take that to the bank.
 
mouncey2franklin said:
Am I the only person who thinks the Suns should be favourites in this one?

Geelong are mediocre. And they have just lost their AA defender in Tom Stewart. He tends to lead them for marks and metres gained.

Who've they replaced him with? Harry Taylor. He was a genuine superstar back in his day, but he's 34 years old now.

For that reason alone Geelong should be nowhere near $1.20 favourites.

You don't take an elite marking / rebounding defender out of a modern AFL team without it seriously hurting. Just ask Collingwood.

(By the way, I was on Ess -15.5 last night, largely for the same reason. That final minute killed me. Maybe I'm on tilt, take my post with a grain of salt).

Do you believe in sports psychology? Geelong have gone w-l-w-l since the middle of last year.

No jokes, the streak goes back to Rd 12 last year. And they won last week...

Want more? Look up who Gold Coast belted in their first preseason match this year. That's right, Geelong: 122 to 54.

Geelong's best player that night was Atkins, and he is going to be spending this match with Stewart on the sidelines due to injury.

Sexton kicked six that night, and in his most recent H&A match against Geelong he kicked 3.2. I'm on him for 2g+, 3g+ and 4g+.

I'm also on Rowell for 2g+ and 3g+. He has been kicking goals as a midfielder and if Geelong tag him, he might do even more damage as a forward.

I'm also on Gold Coast ftw @ 4.75 (betfair), 40+ @ 41 (SB), and 60+ @ 326 (SB).

I'd more more cautious if there were a crowd to celebrate the Cat milestones but the empty theatre might work against them if things get tough.

Just imagine being there as your club's GOAT, son of the other GOAT, loses his 350th to the club he left you for, and then left again.

In front of an empty stadium which you know you will have to vacate for a few weeks due to the virus thing.

If the Gold Coast hit the scoreboard early then the handbags will be out in full force, lads.

And the umpires are having a huge influence on matches lately. I don't like it but it is the reality.

Who are they more likely to favour at AFL House? The strategic franchise and good news story, or the bloke who trashed their brand by walking out?

I'm on the umpires to help bury Geelong in what will go down as an all-time upset classic down at the Cattery.

Gold Coast by plenty. Sexton and Rowell to score several apiece.

Scott to be looking over his contract to make sure it has a full payout clause so he gets his money for '21 and '22 when the axe falls.

And if I'm wrong, if Geelong win, then I'm done punting for a while. I might come back in a month or two.

You can take that to the bank.
Click to expand...

you always have some interesting posts here, I don't doubt you though because ive seen you hit massive bets before. Im also on Sexton 2+, 3+ & 4+, odds were too good to refuse
 

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mouncey2franklin said:
Am I the only person who thinks the Suns should be favourites in this one?

Geelong are mediocre. And they have just lost their AA defender in Tom Stewart. He tends to lead them for marks and metres gained.

Who've they replaced him with? Harry Taylor. He was a genuine superstar back in his day, but he's 34 years old now.

For that reason alone Geelong should be nowhere near $1.20 favourites.

You don't take an elite marking / rebounding defender out of a modern AFL team without it seriously hurting. Just ask Collingwood.

(By the way, I was on Ess -15.5 last night, largely for the same reason. That final minute killed me. Maybe I'm on tilt, take my post with a grain of salt).

Do you believe in sports psychology? Geelong have gone w-l-w-l since the middle of last year.

No jokes, the streak goes back to Rd 12 last year. And they won last week...

Want more? Look up who Gold Coast belted in their first preseason match this year. That's right, Geelong: 122 to 54.

Geelong's best player that night was Atkins, and he is going to be spending this match with Stewart on the sidelines due to injury.

Sexton kicked six that night, and in his most recent H&A match against Geelong he kicked 3.2. I'm on him for 2g+, 3g+ and 4g+.

I'm also on Rowell for 2g+ and 3g+. He has been kicking goals as a midfielder and if Geelong tag him, he might do even more damage as a forward.

I'm also on Gold Coast ftw @ 4.75 (betfair), 40+ @ 41 (SB), and 60+ @ 326 (SB).

I'd be more more cautious if there were a crowd to celebrate the Cat milestones but the empty theatre might work against them if things get tough.

Just imagine being there as your club's GOAT, son of the other GOAT, loses his 350th to the club he left you for, and then left again.

In front of an empty stadium which you know you will have to vacate for a few weeks due to the virus thing.

If the Gold Coast hit the scoreboard early then the handbags will be out in full force, lads.

And the umpires are having a huge influence on matches lately. I don't like it but it is the reality.

Who are they more likely to favour at AFL House? The strategic franchise and good news story, or the bloke who trashed their brand by walking out?

I'm on the umpires to help bury Geelong in what will go down as an all-time upset classic down at the Cattery.

Gold Coast by plenty. Sexton and Rowell to score several apiece.

Scott to be looking over his contract to make sure it has a full payout clause so he gets his money for '21 and '22 when the axe falls.

And if I'm wrong, if Geelong win, and I lose all 10U I've put on this match, then I'm done punting for a while. At least a month off for me.

You can take that to the bank.
Click to expand...
I thought it was almost an even 50/50 split, I couldn't help but throw down $20 on the Suns to win by 40+ I don't think they will win by that much but that's insane odds
 
Harbrow having a shocker, coughed up the first two goals and just before quarter time his attempt at an inside 50 was amateur hour.

Rowell off the ground with an injury five minutes into the game.

A couple of lucky bounces the Cats' way led to goals. A howler of an umpiring decision stole a Suns shot on goal.

Meanwhile Witts getting manhandled in the ruck.

And my boys are only three goals down. I'm not giving up hope yet, lads.
 
Scores pretty well level at half time. I maintain that if the Suns had a decent first quarter they would have smashed the Cats.

Instead they had a shocker and now it'll be a good outcome just to walk away with the win, especially a man down.

But they're in it. A good third quarter and then the handbags will come to the fore.
 
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