Draft Watcher Knightmare 2020 Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

I feel like the problem with Cavara is that he's a midfielder who turned himself into a forward to get drafted. I'm not sure his forward craft, skills or defensive pressure are good enough to be a dedicated forward player at AFL level. I'm hoping Weightman is a bit better in this regard but haven't seen him play yet.

Cavarra was originally a midfielder in the junior ranks and a prolific one at that. For VFL play to get drafted he transitioned to become more a forward as AFL clubs mostly want those sub 175cm types to be forwards as their games are then more compatible for AFL play.

Cavarra will need a stretch of games for the theory to be tested.

Weightman should get games at some point. He's quick but pressure is more okay than good. Likewise his ground level work, reasonably good but another category Cavarra has him. It's more his leaping and overhead stuff where he has separation on Cavarra. If Weightman wants to become a long term piece it's his pressure and ground level stuff that will make or break him as those weapons he'll need to fine tune into his greatest strengths.

I'd be giving both a stretch of 5-6 games at some point. Cavarra to see what he can do and whether he's one to persist with and Weightman to give him a taste of the standard and where he needs to get to.

 

[Knightmare]

Do you think adelaide would bid on JUH at 1? If dogs finish top 6 can they afford to match?

Adelaide in my view should bid on JUH at 1. Whether they do or not, I can't say I'm in the know yet, nor would I expect anyone else in the media to at this point in time.

Dogs could finish top-4 and I don't see why they wouldn't match bids. They can always trade to get extra points regardless of how high they finish, with the other option being a deficit for the next year if they can't. He's a player they absolutely need, but also who fits and would be a great get for the Dogs.

 

[Cadillac]

Adelaide in my view should bid on JUH at 1. Whether they do or not, I can't say I'm in the know yet, nor would I expect anyone else in the media to at this point in time.

Dogs could finish top-4 and I don't see why they wouldn't match bids. They can always trade to get extra points regardless of how high they finish, with the other option being a deficit for the next year if they can't. He's a player they absolutely need, but also who fits and would be a great get for the Dogs.

In regards to JUH, do you think he could have the same amount of dominance at AFL level as what the King twins have shown? Even though he’s only 194cms at the moment? I would love for him to grow to 197 cms so he has that extra reach. Is there a chance he still may grow ? I just think at his current height it will be easier to defend than a Max or Ben King. What are your thoughts?

 

[Knightmare]

In regards to JUH, do you think he could have the same amount of dominance at AFL level as what the King twins have shown? Even though he’s only 194cms at the moment? I would love for him to grow to 197 cms so he has that extra reach. Is there a chance he still may grow ? I just think at his current height it will be easier to defend than a Max or Ben King. What are your thoughts?

JUH I feel will be more dominant. Other than Lukosius, there isn't another KPP I'd want ahead of JUH if I'm looking for the long term.

He's the best I've seen i50 from the junior ranks.

The King's can both be exceptional as such difficult to stop targets near goal but JUH has more tricks.

JUH is a guy where if he elevates, there is no way to defend him. You just have to hope his hands aren't clean and he drops the mark (which he sometimes did last year - does he have small hands? I can't say I get hand measurements but wish I did because it's a difference maker when looking at scope as a marking target!). He's also at ground level exceptional and on another level completely to the King's.

JUH is the guy isolated 1v1 i50 who feels like he wins more contests than anyone other than maybe Buddy. Give him the chance to lead or leap at the ball, or if it goes to ground. Any of those scenarios he's taking advantage of opposition defenders. And having that diversity of ways to take advantage of defenders is what really makes guy dangerous and separates those dominant ones.

The King's a bit like Patton/Boyd before them overhead and 1v1 are entirely too good for the junior ranks. It doesn't mean they're not able to do other things, but they're the areas they dominate guys. So if you get enough length and strength on them and they can have their influence limited. JUH I don't see what you can match him with that takes away all those strings in his bow. To stop him from jumping and leading you really need to pack the space in front of him and even then a lot of the time he'll elevate and take the mark anyway. I look at that combination of being so special aerially but then also exceptional at ground level for a KPP being what puts him ahead of the rest.

 

[Mojorisin]

JUH I feel will be more dominant. Other than Lukosius, there isn't another KPP I'd want ahead of JUH if I'm looking for the long term.

He's the best I've seen i50 from the junior ranks.

The King's can both be exceptional as such difficult to stop targets near goal but JUH has more tricks.

JUH is a guy where if he elevates, there is no way to defend him. You just have to hope his hands aren't clean and he drops the mark (which he sometimes did last year - does he have small hands? I can't say I get hand measurements but wish I did because it's a difference maker when looking at scope as a marking target!). He's also at ground level exceptional and on another level completely to the King's.

JUH is the guy isolated 1v1 i50 who feels like he wins more contests than anyone other than maybe Buddy. Give him the chance to lead or leap at the ball, or if it goes to ground. Any of those scenarios he's taking advantage of opposition defenders. And having that diversity of ways to take advantage of defenders is what really makes guy dangerous and separates those dominant ones.

The King's a bit like Patton/Boyd before them overhead and 1v1 are entirely too good for the junior ranks. It doesn't mean they're not able to do other things, but they're the areas they dominate guys. So if you get enough length and strength on them and they can have their influence limited. JUH I don't see what you can match him with that takes away all those strings in his bow. To stop him from jumping and leading you really need to pack the space in front of him and even then a lot of the time he'll elevate and take the mark anyway. I look at that combination of being so special aerially but then also exceptional at ground level for a KPP being what puts him ahead of the rest.

Could you see him having an impact as quickly as the king brothers have?

 

[Knightmare]

Could you see him having an impact as quickly as the king brothers have?

I expect so. Naughton and JUH would be the two targets with JUH the one I'd use closest to goal from season one if it were up to me. And he has the attributes to cause problems. I favour JUH to Josh Bruce and Josh Schache and would prioritise getting games into him in an ideal world.

JUH last year was more dominant than the King brothers were as underagers. So I'd be expecting as impact an immediate if not a little better.

 

[Jazny]

Callow was good on the weekend for North Launceston, taking a few good contested marks and kicking this goal from outside 50:


Patrick Walker (no. 48) and Sam Collins (49) also played if you are bored enough and want to watch the game. Walker named in the bests, used the ball pretty well. Collins was good but played more a lockdown role.

 

[PMBangers]

Callow was good on the weekend for North Launceston, taking a few good contested marks and kicking this goal from outside 50:


Patrick Walker (no. 48) and Sam Collins (49) also played if you are bored enough and want to watch the game. Walker named in the bests, used the ball pretty well. Collins was good but played more a lockdown role.

Davis one of the bests in the Clarence v Lauderdale game as well despite the loss, Menzie with a sneaky 2 in that N Launceston v N Hobart. Only TSL so hard to know how seriously we take these results but all 5 looked good

 

[Jazny]

Davis one of the bests in the Clarence v Lauderdale game as well despite the loss, Menzie with a sneaky 2 in that N Launceston v N Hobart. Only TSL so hard to know how seriously we take these results but all 5 looked good

Can only really compare them to how well other players that got drafted from the TSL did. They dont really dominate, being named in the bests consistently is a good sign There are still some very good players in the TSL. Sam Banks (bottom age) also named in the bests. He looks like he has grown a couple of centimetres this year too and will probably be our highest draft pick next year.

 

[PMBangers]

Can only really compare them to how well other players that got drafted from the TSL did. They dont really dominate, being named in the bests consistently is a good sign There are still some very good players in the TSL. Sam Banks (bottom age) also named in the bests. He looks like he has grown a couple of centimetres this year too and will probably be our highest draft pick next year.

Hesitant on Banks calls early, still feel burnt after my staunch support of Mitch O'Neill after his bottom age form

 

[Jazny]

Hesitant on Banks calls early, still feel burnt after my staunch support of Mitch O'Neill after his bottom age form

Thats probably smart lol, lots of people got burned on O'Neill If Walker doesn't get drafted, I guess it will be my turn to get a little burned this year It's too early to make big calls. Some players dont improve on their bottom age year (see O'Neill).

 

[Mojorisin]

What are your thoughts on poulter?

 

[Davo-27]

Hesitant on Banks calls early, still feel burnt after my staunch support of Mitch O'Neill after his bottom age form

Yea I made a mistake going big on ONeill in the pre-season of 2019, it took a few games in 2019 to realise he was too tentative at the contest, but many people on here make predictions and then change their mind on further viewing, I'm not going to beat myself up for making a couple of errors when I believe I make dozens of good calls per year, I think the community on bigfooty has a good record, I would say in some cases better than some afl recruiting teams and worse than some.

 

[PMBangers]

Yea I made a mistake going big on ONeill in the pre-season of 2019, it took a few games in 2019 to realise he was too tentative at the contest, but many people on here make predictions and then change their mind on further viewing, I'm not going to beat myself up for making a couple of errors when I believe I make dozens of good calls per year, I think the community on bigfooty has a good record, I would say in some cases better than some afl recruiting teams and worse than some.

You're giving me far too much credit saying the community has a good record. I still stan by Mitch, I'm not gonna drop hope on a winger for being below par at contested footy

 

[SXT15]

Knightmare I am a long time fan, first time poster on this thread. Love your work and efforts, thank you firstly. This year will be an awesome test of recruiters across all the league, and I trust your eye more than
most.

I have a question (well more of a validation of my thoughts to be honest). My Brisbane Lions. I believe our list is in great shape currently, both for the now and the next 5 years projected. I’d like to run a few list moves past you though,

We have ours and Ports first rounders this year. I strongly believe we need a Marking, Natural Forward the most out of all positions. Hipwood, Mcstay (and Ballenden, Fullarton and Skinner) are all athletes over natural forwards who can clunk the ball and have innate goal sense. Mcstay is probably the most natural out of that group. We are clearly locking in Hipwood in the team, who has got upside but also quite low footy iq. My proposal is that we trade both our firsts for someone like Oscar Allen (WCE). Would you, a) agree with my assessment about our forward line, and our lack of a real natural tall, mid size forward, and b) would you go for a Oscar / Tim Membrey type? The caveat is I think Connor McFadyen has real potential (he’s just done his ACL though), projects to be a gun, natural third tall forward for us.

The other trade I would be open to, would be to offload Witherden & Cedric Cox for future 2nd & 3rd rounders. If we could get multiple top 30 picks in next years draft, I’m assuming that would be a pretty powerful position to be in with the overflow of talent into 2021? We have plenty of depth to cover for Witho & Coxy, both would have value at the table in my opinion

 

[Mofra]

KM, probably a difficult question but there are usually quick crumbing x factor type small forwards somewhere who slip to the rookie draft (often hid in country WA / NT). Are there any you have been watching for the 2020 crop?

 

[philthy05]

Knightmare I am a long time fan, first time poster on this thread. Love your work and efforts, thank you firstly. This year will be an awesome test of recruiters across all the league, and I trust your eye more than
most.

I have a question (well more of a validation of my thoughts to be honest). My Brisbane Lions. I believe our list is in great shape currently, both for the now and the next 5 years projected. I’d like to run a few list moves past you though,

We have ours and Ports first rounders this year. I strongly believe we need a Marking, Natural Forward the most out of all positions. Hipwood, Mcstay (and Ballenden, Fullarton and Skinner) are all athletes over natural forwards who can clunk the ball and have innate goal sense. Mcstay is probably the most natural out of that group. We are clearly locking in Hipwood in the team, who has got upside but also quite low footy iq. My proposal is that we trade both our firsts for someone like Oscar Allen (WCE). Would you, a) agree with my assessment about our forward line, and our lack of a real natural tall, mid size forward, and b) would you go for a Oscar / Tim Membrey type? The caveat is I think Connor McFadyen has real potential (he’s just done his ACL though), projects to be a gun, natural third tall forward for us.

The other trade I would be open to, would be to offload Witherden & Cedric Cox for future 2nd & 3rd rounders. If we could get multiple top 30 picks in next years draft, I’m assuming that would be a pretty powerful position to be in with the overflow of talent into 2021? We have plenty of depth to cover for Witho & Coxy, both would have value at the table in my opinion

why would a contracted Wa born key forward playing at a successful club move across the country?

You might as well add rozee, rankine and max king to the deal, it would be no less unrealistic.

 

[Boristown]

In regards to JUH, do you think he could have the same amount of dominance at AFL level as what the King twins have shown? Even though he’s only 194cms at the moment? I would love for him to grow to 197 cms so he has that extra reach. Is there a chance he still may grow ? I just think at his current height it will be easier to defend than a Max or Ben King. What are your thoughts?

I might be on my own here on BF but I know that some in the recruiting ranks feel similarly...

After seeing quite a bit of vision (that isnt publicly available) I don't think JUH ever reaches the heights of the King brothers and that he'll be another in a long line of young KPF prospects that showed plenty in his underage year but fails to take the leap to the next level.

Has massive bust potential, IMO

 

[Cadillac]

I might be on my own here on BF but I know that some in the recruiting ranks feel similarly...

After seeing quite a bit of vision (that isnt publicly available) I don't think JUH ever reaches the heights of the King brothers and that he'll be another in a long line of young KPF prospects that showed plenty in his underage year but fails to take the leap to the next level.

Has massive bust potential, IMO

Interesting point mate. And it’s a valid question. It seems like the strike rate for bust potential at the position is higher than any other position on the ground. What I think works in his favour is the fact he was dominating as a 17 year old at a size much smaller than that of Patton, Boyd, Wright all were who ended up as busts. You could say that those guys dominated because they were already 200+cms and were so much bigger than their opponents. Where as Jamarra is an average height KPF with an undersized frame dominating in a variety of ways including on a lead, contested marking and also at ground level. Where those other guys were only dominant in the one area. What are your thoughts on that?

 

[Crow till I die]

I might be on my own here on BF but I know that some in the recruiting ranks feel similarly...

After seeing quite a bit of vision (that isnt publicly available) I don't think JUH ever reaches the heights of the King brothers and that he'll be another in a long line of young KPF prospects that showed plenty in his underage year but fails to take the leap to the next level.

Has massive bust potential, IMO

As a crows fan I have a vested interest so if you had pick 1 to use this year - who would you take based on the limited evidence of form to date?

 

[briztoon]

I might be on my own here on BF but I know that some in the recruiting ranks feel similarly...

After seeing quite a bit of vision (that isnt publicly available) I don't think JUH ever reaches the heights of the King brothers and that he'll be another in a long line of young KPF prospects that showed plenty in his underage year but fails to take the leap to the next level.

Has massive bust potential, IMO

Curious what this vision is?

 

[Boristown]

Interesting point mate. And it’s a valid question. It seems like the strike rate for bust potential at the position is higher than any other position on the ground. What I think works in his favour is the fact he was dominating as a 17 year old at a size much smaller than that of Patton, Boyd, Wright all were who ended up as busts. You could say that those guys dominated because they were already 200+cms and were so much bigger than their opponents. Where as Jamarra is an average height KPF with an undersized frame dominating in a variety of ways including on a lead, contested marking and also at ground level. Where those other guys were only dominant in the one area. What are your thoughts on that?

I would rate JUH as average at ground level, and despite being compared to Buddy, doesn't hold a candle to his agility and ball handling skills when it hits the deck. Remember he only kicked a few of his goals that way last year. The rest were generally pretty straight forward lead and mark type goals, being fed by one of the best midfields ever produced at u/18 level (Rowell, Anderson & Phillips). Any decent KPF would have racked up monster stats with that type of service. He was rarely double teamed and when he was, such as the NAB Cup GF, he struggled to have any impact.

Knowing your own team, do you think he'll have the luxury of an open forward line and silver service delivery at the Bulldogs?

Basically, my thoughts are he has a very impressive highlights reel where he jumped on the head of a few undersized defenders and dined out on the hard work of his midfielders. Very little tackling or defensive mindset, field kicking questionable (he turned over almost every single kick in the All-Stars game). Some big red flags, IMO and while that might be an unpopular opinion on here, I know I'm not the only one who thinks it.

 

[CaptainMurphy]

Cavarra can play both midfield and forward, but with the sheer depth of quality numbers there is no way Cavarra should be considered for a midfield spot realistically. He's not nearly Bont/Macrae/Dunkley/Smith.

Up forward though, that's where I see a possible role for him where he can pressure, crumb, has the speed and can win his own ball. That's really all that's needed in the role.

Lowson isn't the ball winner Cavarra is and doesn't have the same midfield capabilities but is of the two the more dangerous around goal and more threatening overhead, while sharing similar pressure and ground level capabilities.

We need the finisher though. So often the ball spends a lot of time around our goal and nobody finishes it off. Sounds like you don't see Cavarra as that guy.

 

[Knightmare]

What are your thoughts on poulter?

Not sure I've seen him in action.

Sounds like he's been hitting the scoreboard and has started the season positively.

Would like to see full games of him playing before commenting.

Knightmare I am a long time fan, first time poster on this thread. Love your work and efforts, thank you firstly. This year will be an awesome test of recruiters across all the league, and I trust your eye more than
most.

I have a question (well more of a validation of my thoughts to be honest). My Brisbane Lions. I believe our list is in great shape currently, both for the now and the next 5 years projected. I’d like to run a few list moves past you though,

We have ours and Ports first rounders this year. I strongly believe we need a Marking, Natural Forward the most out of all positions. Hipwood, Mcstay (and Ballenden, Fullarton and Skinner) are all athletes over natural forwards who can clunk the ball and have innate goal sense. Mcstay is probably the most natural out of that group. We are clearly locking in Hipwood in the team, who has got upside but also quite low footy iq. My proposal is that we trade both our firsts for someone like Oscar Allen (WCE). Would you, a) agree with my assessment about our forward line, and our lack of a real natural tall, mid size forward, and b) would you go for a Oscar / Tim Membrey type? The caveat is I think Connor McFadyen has real potential (he’s just done his ACL though), projects to be a gun, natural third tall forward for us.

The other trade I would be open to, would be to offload Witherden & Cedric Cox for future 2nd & 3rd rounders. If we could get multiple top 30 picks in next years draft, I’m assuming that would be a pretty powerful position to be in with the overflow of talent into 2021? We have plenty of depth to cover for Witho & Coxy, both would have value at the table in my opinion

I agree completely with you on Brisbane's key forwards and I've been saying it for years that every key position player on Brisbane's list I view as a key defender. Hipwood, Ballenden etc, put them in defence and that's where I see them playing their best footy.

Hipwood will be persisted with as a key forward and is one of two who will be used. Ballenden I still give a chance to develop but I do like what he does more in defence.

An Oscar Allen would be a great get if he can be added. Not sure WCE would give him up though. Membrey is similarly good but again probably not available.

Jaidyn Stephenson is an interesting one who doesn't feel as high up the pecking order for Collingwood as he probably should based on what he has done to date. He's not quite a KPP, but can still be a sort of go-to option i50 and cause problems more-so with his speed at his height. I'd be asking what Collingwood would want for him.

The key forward I have my eyes most closely on is Ben Brown - given he's having a below average season but is so durable and has been so consistent for a number of years. I think he has more good footy in him.

Fremantle have a few who should be available. They don't need Hogan, Taberner, McCarthy and Cox all on the same team. One of them could be had and added.

Sam Reid from Sydney is another I'd ask the question about and enquire into the asking price.

Witherden and Cox are two to offer up. As outside best 22 guys though they're only going to attract so much, even if a Witherden would be best 22 on most other teams. Brisbane will need to be aggressive in offering fringe types and picks if not a few best 22 types to improve list balance in spots lacking.

KM, probably a difficult question but there are usually quick crumbing x factor type small forwards somewhere who slip to the rookie draft (often hid in country WA / NT). Are there any you have been watching for the 2020 crop?

Adelaide NGA Tariek Newchurch best fits that description and is that main guy fitting that description.

Errol Gulden is another able crumber but Sydney Academy.

Best non Academy crumber probably is Bailey Laurie who 2nd-3rd round will be a consideration. He's a fwd/mid. Quick and good at ground level but not extremely freakish.

U18 Champs had that gone ahead we may have seen a few more candidates emerge, but they're the guys going off 2019 play.

I might be on my own here on BF but I know that some in the recruiting ranks feel similarly...

After seeing quite a bit of vision (that isnt publicly available) I don't think JUH ever reaches the heights of the King brothers and that he'll be another in a long line of young KPF prospects that showed plenty in his underage year but fails to take the leap to the next level.

Has massive bust potential, IMO

I'm on the other side of the picture.

Though where my word of caution is comes more in the intangibles categories.

Specifically with regard to his relationship with teammates. I don't see teammates getting all that excited for him when he does something special and I don't really notice teammates gravitating towards him either. There is a kind of selfish vibe you see with him some games where it's all about him and he's the focal point. Though a lot of the time really rightly he is that focal point because he is that good that you'd be crazy not to.

That kind of relationship side of the game and just seeing how he and teammates respond to eachother was an aspect with JUH I was going to watch for this year out on the field. But alas, no games to see how any of that is developing.

We need the finisher though. So often the ball spends a lot of time around our goal and nobody finishes it off. Sounds like you don't see Cavarra as that guy.

I don't see Cavarra as a big goal kicker. At AFL level he'd be a 25-30 goal a year guy per 22 games to give my estimate. He's definitely not a 2 a game guy. He's more someone you put there for ground level ball winning and pressure for balance reasons.

 

[GROTTO]

Adelaide in my view should bid on JUH at 1. Whether they do or not, I can't say I'm in the know yet, nor would I expect anyone else in the media to at this point in time.

Dogs could finish top-4 and I don't see why they wouldn't match bids. They can always trade to get extra points regardless of how high they finish, with the other option being a deficit for the next year if they can't. He's a player they absolutely need, but also who fits and would be a great get for the Dogs.

Crows will IMO.

It will give them a safety net if whoever they end up with doesnt pan out as Number 1 pick, they can always lay to claim they went for JUH with Pick 1.