AFL 2020 - AFL Round 8

[andwhenitcomes]

So true. Im 1 from 7 (it should have been 1 out of 8- as i forgot to place the bet for Carlton v Roos before the kick off) following his tips but being the superstitious person that I am, as soon as I place the multi on nathan browns multi, i place my own bet against his.

...You're backing both results?

 

[NYRB]

...You're backing both results?

I wouldn't say back I both results, often I find his tips: 2 of the 3 are usually good reasons, just trying to look for the one weakness of his 3rd leg to oppose against. Brown's multi from my memory range from around $3.50 to $9, so I try to integrate my 3rd leg in there.

 

[mac23]

Actually, it's the opposite. The best result for sportsbet is that brown's multis actually get up. More mug punters buying in, punting and eventually losing. Betting agencies more than happy for their promotional products to salute. It creates hype and more losing customers.

The KFC analogy is absolutely ridiculous and makes it obvious you have no idea what you're talking about.

Spare me, if Browny was building hype with winners I’m sure SB could generate better results than 1 win in the last 9 by NYRB’s count.
KFC analogy was clearly just a bit of humour, lighten up mate.

 

[NYRB]

This is a bit unrelated to previous posts but *ing BetEasy have capped me on betting on Total Points. Has this happened to anyone else?

Only allowed me to place a bet of the size of around $2XX.00 at around even money.............

I wouldn't call myself an expert on 'Points scoring' in AFL, its more of a gut feeling and based on some basic stats.

(PS: id just be a bit wary of using them)

 

[TryAnHit]

This is a bit unrelated to previous posts but *ing BetEasy have capped me on betting on Total Points. Has this happened to anyone else?

Only allowed me to place a bet of the size of around $2XX.00 at around even money.............

I wouldn't call myself an expert on 'Points scoring' in AFL, its more of a gut feeling and based on some basic stats.

(PS: id just be a bit wary of using them)

If the total move your way no matter what unit size you bet you will get restricted.

I have been banned at every shop with my accounts closed at some... not even restricted just shut down

 

[demon_fanatic]

Looking a bit ahead to Monday and really like Dangerfield around the 21 disposal line,no selwood now he will basically be full time mid and fwd instead of bench most time if he needs a rest, racked up 32 on same ground vs a much more possession heavvy team in Pies, think I'll take him and Mengola for disposals as his line only be around 18-19. Dockers don't rack up big numbers

 

[Robo87]

1u Ess 20-39 @4.80 BE boost
1u Zaharakis ags @2.35 BE boost

possibly himmelberg spends sometime either up forward or down back or a bit of both as a tall?-
1u himmelberg ags @1.91 sb
0.5u himmelberg 2g+@6 sb
0.3u himmelberg 3g+@23 sb
roughies--
0.5u seedsman ags @ 4 BE
0.2u seedsman 2g+ @21 BE
0.5u ROB ags @10 BE (hes due for a goal)
0.1u ROB 2g+ @41 BE

 

[Bucking Bronco]

Not sure if this bet is going to cash, but okay value:

Ben Keays, a prolific ball winner as a junior who was played almost exclusively as a forward at the Lions has been playing through the midfield all year for the Crows and with Sloane out last week registered 23 disposals. With the Crouch brothers departure imminent they also may be shunted out of the middle to an extent to give added exposure to "the future".

Paying $2 at SB to go 15+, and $5 and $26 to go 20+ and 25+ respectively at TAB.

 

[Drapatch]

Got rolled with Steele

SB paid out the bet as he finished on 22 (bet was > 21.5), Hour later my account is in minus as they have reversed the payout.

looked on afl his disposals is now back to 21. Spewing!!

do I have any leg to stand on and complain as they already paid out?

 

[NYRB]

Nathan Brown SGM WCE V Collingwood and his reasoning:

Line: Collingwood (+5.5 head start- think its going to be close)
Total Match Points: Under 113.5 pts (tough hard low scoring conditions)
20+ Disposals: Pendlebury (he has had 20 or more , every game this year)

Thats paying $5.00

There you go , i placed a bet on that, go the jinx.



Personally, don't agree with Browny on the total match points line. West Coast matches are far higher scoring at Perth Stadium in comparison to matches to games played in the East Coast. Looking at the weather forecast, rain should be minimal throughout the day from 2-5pm. (AWST). I'm also quitely confident West Coast can do the job at home but the Pies won this corresponding game by a point last year.

My SGM, which is a 4 leg multi- to counter Browny would be:

20+ Disposals: Pendlebury (like the reasoning as mentioned from Brown above- seems to step it up for the big games)
Total Match Points: Over 113.5 pts (for reasons above)
Anytime Goalscorer: Jake Waterman (Pies two best defenders will go to Darling and Kennedy )
Anytime Goalscorer: Mihocek (without De Goey, he will get a few chances at goal and will be the focal point up forward)

My multi is paying $7.25 , which has been boosted to $8 on the Powerplay. GL all

 

[NYRB]

in terms of goalscoring, 4 bets stood out straight away for me

1) Jake Waterman 2+ @ 6.50, 3+ @ $31, 4+ @ $101. Has kicked a couple against Swans and Dockers in the past 2 weeks.

2) Dom Sheed 2+ @ 15, 3+ @ $101. Seems to save his best games for Collingwood and plays better than normal against them.

3) Will Hoskin Elliott 2+ @ $7, 3+ @ $26, 4+ @ $101. Without De goey, you would imagine a small forward has to step up, Hoskin Elliott fits this role perfectly. He will get a few extra shots on goal especially if given time in the forward line.

4) Taylor Adams 2+ @ 14, 3+ @ $101. Don't think these are shabby odds, did remember he kicked a goal against the Eagles in the 2018 Grand Final.

 

[NYRB]

Also decided to do a couple of SGM goal scorer multi for:

5 units on Waterman AGS, Hoskin Elliott AGS @ $4.20
1 unit on Waterman 2+, Hoskin Elliott 2+ @$49.25

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

Not sure if this bet is going to cash, but okay value:

Ben Keays, a prolific ball winner as a junior who was played almost exclusively as a forward at the Lions has been playing through the midfield all year for the Crows and with Sloane out last week registered 23 disposals. With the Crouch brothers departure imminent they also may be shunted out of the middle to an extent to give added exposure to "the future".

Paying $2 at SB to go 15+, and $5 and $26 to go 20+ and 25+ respectively at TAB.

I like this one, put him in my SGM. He’s certainly not the same player when he was at the Lions, never rated him.

15+ disposals
Laird
Brodie Smith
Keays
McGrath
Saad
Merrett
Mckenna
@9.20 SB boosted

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

Just in relation to the Melb Bris game this evening, I’m on the GC and it has been non stop heavy rain for about 12 hours. There was a period around 3-4am where it was the heaviest rain I’ve ever seen tbh. I’ve got tickets so I’m hoping it stops by mid afternoon.

 

[NYRB]

Not sure if this bet is going to cash, but okay value:

Ben Keays, a prolific ball winner as a junior who was played almost exclusively as a forward at the Lions has been playing through the midfield all year for the Crows and with Sloane out last week registered 23 disposals. With the Crouch brothers departure imminent they also may be shunted out of the middle to an extent to give added exposure to "the future".

Paying $2 at SB to go 15+, and $5 and $26 to go 20+ and 25+ respectively at TAB.

I’ve tailed you. I’m pretty hopeless at picking disposals. Did notice Keays pick up 23 disposals last week against the Saints . Dare I say it The Crouch Brothers usually get the best taggers which could leave Keays open.

 

[GROTTO]

If the total move your way no matter what unit size you bet you will get restricted.

I have been banned at every shop with my accounts closed at some... not even restricted just shut down

Same accounts closed with BetEasy and Ladbrokes.

 

[Sausage Legs]

I’ve tailed you. I’m pretty hopeless at picking disposals. Did notice Keays pick up 23 disposals last week against the Saints . Dare I say it The Crouch Brothers usually get the best taggers which could leave Keays open.

The crouch brothers don't get tagged cos they're not damaging. Keays does tag himself at times, but so do people like Jack Steele who can still rack them.
I normally only stick to 2 leg multis cos don't get promos, but today.
Laverde ags
dev Smith ags
Himmelberg ags
Keays 15 touches
17.75 sb

 

[Ohh Ok]

2.5u Merrett Under 21.5 disposals @ $1.87 (365)

3/5 has gone unders this season. Think he cops the Keays tag today. Has shown he is very suceptible to the tag in recent years.

 

[NonPhixion]

Gaff O23.5 $1.85 - Lads

Im all over this line. covered 5/7, his average is brought down a lot by the fact he only gathered 12 two weeks ago against Adelaide, not sure if he was tagged there or what happened. But Collingwood never tag anybody, Gaff will be allowed time and space to rack them up. Gathered 32 & 35 in the two games against Collingwood last year. Line should be atleast 25.5

 

[thecatattack]

Brad Close is a shout for AGS on Monday.

The only bookie I can find that has him is LB though and he's 2.75 on there.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Eags v pies
Cripps and mihocek snag 3.20 sb
Don't mind gaff 23.5 touches and shuey 20.5 over for both. 365

 

[Hellboy101]

Up and down weekend so far.

SGM: Keays 15+, ESS win, Laverde AGS @5
SGM: Phillips 15+, Adams 20+, WHE AGS @5.5
Both SB

Essendon win into u125 for pies/ eagles @2.66 Tab

Liking Danger most disposals tomorrow as well

 

[squeaky1000]

B Crouch under 84.5 fantasy - under this 5/7 this year
Merrett under 83.5 - under 4/6 and potential Keays tag
SGM: M Crouch 20+, Parish, Saad 15+ $1.88
SGM: M Crouch 20+, Laird, B Smith, D Smith, Parish 15+ $4.20

 

[Ohh Ok]

2.5u Smith 15+, McGrath 15+, Parish 15+ @ $2.10 (sb)
1u Jones 15+ (sb)

Smith a bit inflated due to last week’s tag. Should be freed up to grab his 15. McGrath Full time mid this year and parish increased time due to injuries. Will be boosted if Merrett gets the tag.

Crows love Jones, they keep persuing with him and shows some positive signs. Seems a real confidence player, hoping the crows can bring it to Essendon today. He’s a good chance against a weaker midfield especially if he has a few good touches early.

 

[0utsider]

Not sure if this bet is going to cash, but okay value:

Ben Keays, a prolific ball winner as a junior who was played almost exclusively as a forward at the Lions has been playing through the midfield all year for the Crows and with Sloane out last week registered 23 disposals. With the Crouch brothers departure imminent they also may be shunted out of the middle to an extent to give added exposure to "the future".

Paying $2 at SB to go 15+, and $5 and $26 to go 20+ and 25+ respectively at TAB.

Great shout. SB offering lower odds but still I’ve gone
1u Keays 15+ @2
.5u Keays 20+ @4.50
.25u Keays 25+ @14

Also got
1u ROB 15+ @2.30
.5u ROB 20+ @6

Was feeling more confident on ROB before seeing Phillips was out but still not overly worried about Bellchambers giving him a hard day.