AFL 2020 - AFL Round 9

[NYRB]

With this hectic schedule do you guys think teams could put the cue in the rack earlier to prep for games 4 days later rather than fight to the end?

If so, bigger margins worth considering.

Take the Pies for example. 3 games in 14 days or so and travel cross country. May as well pack it in if down at 3QT and rest stars...

Definitely. if a game is dead or pretty much over, as a coach you would want to minimize risk as much as possible. The saying 'its a marathon not a sprint' this season.

 

[Atavistic]

Yep, but I'm Using Lads
1u Lloyd 2g+ @3.75
0.5u Lloyd 3g+ @12

Even BetEasy has better odds. Sometimes getting in early isn't the best thing to do...

 

[benji21]

Freo vs pies 0-100 points. Both like to hold onto the ball. Can see a good 30 - 35 point scored in the 1st. Then the goals will dry up very quickly.

 

[Robo87]

Aren't Bet365 doing multi-goalscorers anymore? or is it just me? i can only see first and anytime goalscorers for dogs v tigers.
Or are they only putting them up tomorrow?

 

[Ohh Ok]

4u WCE, Lions @ $1.89 (lads)
3u Western Bulldogs +0.5 @ $2 (lads)

 

[Sausage Legs]

4u WCE, Lions @ $1.89 (lads)
3u Western Bulldogs +0.5 @ $2 (lads)

Think lions win anyway but could be a bit small up fwd this week. Both rucks out. Big O prob has to take the duties, and mcstay out too. Just the big stringbean hipwood left. Won't be bombing it in.

 

[md20]

J. Macrae - Most Disposals Group A $2.50 (Lads).

Should be around $1.80/under $2 IMO.
Has been the highest disposal getter in his last two games with 29 & 29 (2nd to L. Hunter in Rd 6 who isnt playing, so could argue last 3 games).
His last two games against Richmond he has recorded 43 & 36, being the highest in those two games.
Also, its his 150th. So get around him.

EDIT: Also liking the look of P. Lipinski - Most Disposals Group B $5 (Lads) in terms of value.
Bont should take this out at $2.40.
Group is made up of Bontempelli, Lipinski, Johannisen, Crozier, Stack, Bolton, Baker, and Higgins.

 

[demon_fanatic]

Which books are you getting Mcrae fixed odds on? Curiously the spread on pointsbet is 24 which is odd as he's gone 26,29,29 past three and Richmond don't tend to tag, normally disposal spreads are 1 or 2 higher than fixed so thought he'd be up at 26 or 27 spread..

 

[demon_fanatic]

Also anyone liking over 115.5 over tab, perfect night but it'll be very Dewy right? Still the dogs game went 97 in absolutely horrible conditions last week and Tigers game 112 kicking 6.14 inaccurate, Vlastuin out hurts too the tigers intercept game and the changes for each team helps scoring imo

 

[NYRB]

I reckon the bookies have got the total match points line about right for this match. It's a 115.5 with TAB and 117.5 at Sportsbet.


This is one that could go either way in my opinion. One thing I will say about Richmonds performance last week, I know they were missing a few players but their performance last week despite the 2 goal loss, it showed to me they had quite good depth in their list.

 

[NYRB]

if i were pricing Tom Lynch for goals this week (assuming no bookie margin), I'd price it:

0 Goals= $14
1 Goal= $3.85
2 Goals= $3.10
3 Goals= $4.85
4 Goals= $10
5 Goals= $26
6+ Goals = $91


He averages 1.8 goals per game against the Western Bulldogs in his career & his last game that he played against them he kicked 0 goals. (His best bag against them is 4 goals) I have 2 goals as favourites merely based on the fact that he averages around that many in his career against them. Can't wait for the day TAB or some bookie allows us to bet on 0 goals or exact goals. But as another forumite mentioned , its unlikely to happen in Australia.

 

[NonPhixion]

Richmond O8.5 goals $2.10 - ladbrokes

The Dogs defence just gives up far too many marks I50, the most in the competition. Richmond are more than good enough to expose this.

 

[iluvparis]

Richmond O8.5 goals $2.10 - ladbrokes

The Dogs defence just gives up far too many marks I50, the most in the competition. Richmond are more than good enough to expose this.

How come no one can seem to actually score against them then? Apart from the Premiership contending blues!

 

[NYRB]

im waiting for the Nathan brown Sportsbet predictions with anticipation.

 

[NonPhixion]

How come no one can seem to actually score against them then? Apart from the Premiership contending blues!

GWS: 4.9
Sydney: 5.9
North: 5.8
Carlton: 16.7
Essendon: 7.9
GC: 6.10 (wet conditions)

You can question some of the opposition they have faced in the last 6 weeks & there is some pretty inaccurate kicking there too.
Happy to be proven wrong tonight & if I am I’ll be the first to admit.

 

[iluvparis]

GWS: 4.9
Sydney: 5.9
North: 5.8
Carlton: 16.7
Essendon: 7.9
GC: 6.10 (wet conditions)

You can question some of the opposition they have faced in the last 6 weeks & there is some pretty inaccurate kicking there too.
Happy to be proven wrong tonight & if I am I’ll be the first to admit.

Maybe they concede lots of marks inside 50 but they are in areas that are difficult to convert from so they are happy to protect the corridor and give up that space?

 

[Ohh Ok]

2.5u English 15+ @ $1.65 (Lads)
1.5u English 20+ @ $3.75 (lads)
1u Dusty AGS @ $1.60 (TAB)
0.6u Dusty 2+ @ $3.75 (TAB)

Don’t feel like there’s a whole lot of value getting around on tonight’s game in the disposal and goal markets, even the last couple game of the round seemed to be a bit tighter and looks to be the same in the other games this round.

Anyways, found English at 15+ for $1.65 which massively trumps the $1.62 sb are offering for 20+, value! In the last 5 weeks he’s gone 22, 22, 17, 22, 9. We can forgive him for the 9 as it was a slip that definitely doesn’t suit the big man. Tonight we get more favourable conditions against the tiges and big Soldo. Should give big Timmy the opportunity to get into the game and help his side around the ground acting as the extra mid. 20+ at $3.75 looks a great price.

Not ultra confident, but a few ins may see dusty push forward, should score tonight which will give us a little free roll

 

[NonPhixion]

Maybe they concede lots of marks inside 50 but they are in areas that are difficult to convert from so they are happy to protect the corridor and give up that space?

You can look at it any way you like they are giving up the most marks i50’s, more than Adelaide. It’s not a good statistic. we will see tonight.

 

[burge13]

You can look at it any way you like they are giving up the most marks i50’s, more than Adelaide. It’s not a good statistic. we will see tonight.

Is there a heatmap available somewhere of where they concede their marks?

Tend to agree with Paris. If many of their marks are wide, it could be a deliberate (and smart) gameplan to just make you shoot from the boundary. I've watched a few dogs games and not sure this is the case though. Be good to know for sure however. Helps us all having more info to assist raw stats

 

[iluvparis]

You can look at it any way you like they are giving up the most marks i50’s, more than Adelaide. It’s not a good statistic. we will see tonight.

Yes but as I said this is not translating into scores at all and you are not betting on the marks i50 market.

 

[NonPhixion]

Maybe they concede lots of marks inside 50 but they are in areas that are difficult to convert from so they are happy to protect the corridor and give up that space?

GC took 7 marks i50 last week.
I just watched the highlights and I counted 4 of them that were very easy marks in good positions, go see for yourself and come back to me

 

[ArielZ]

does anyone know if sportsbet will do disposal over/unders for select players for tonight's game? Feels like they do it for some games and not others

 

[iluvparis]

GC took 7 marks i50 last week.
I just watched the highlights and I counted 4 of them that were very easy marks in good positions, go see for yourself and come back to me

Go look at their scores conceded from the last 6 weeks and come back to me

 

[md20]

SGM $171 ($199 boosted with SB)
Bulldogs 40+
Over 116.5
J. Macrae Most Disp. Group 1
C. Daniel 20+
M. Wallis 2+
S. Lloyd AGS
D. Martin AGS

I feel like I'm on here


On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[NonPhixion]

Go look at their scores conceded from the last 6 weeks and come back to me

You are just ignoring all of my arguments because it suits your agenda