How do we come back from this?

[Niximus]

I don't suspect the AFL will be happy about our situation at all. If our crowds start dropping (they already appear to be) they will be very concerned given our normal attendance figures.

No, they won't.

They didn't care when Port had tarps and The Crows' attendance won't even slip that far. They'll prefer it even, more justification to give prime slots to Vic teams.

The year the Crows' coach was murdered, winning a final was drowned out by a Vic club complaining that they were robbed.
2 years later to be in a GF, winning would have been the type of story they make movies about and yet it was entirely the Richmond show.You barely rated a mention.

If you're expecting the AFL to intervene or care on any level, you're in for some severe disappointment...

 

[jenny61_99]

Rendell didn't deserve to be sacked but WHO made the decision? Trigg. Who condoned it? Chapman.

Bullshit. The AFL made the call. We didn't have the balls to say no.

 

[davos44]

Footy isn't a linear graph of performance, just because you played well one week, doesn't mean you will repeat it the next and vice versa.

We had a bad loss against a side who seem to like playing us lately, Melbourne beat Hawthorn by plenty and then a few days later play like the biggest rabble known to man.

We have had 2 agonising close losses this year, mixed with some adequate showings against some better sides like:

Brisbane
West Coast
St Kilda

Most Crows supporters are sick of finishing 6-12 and the club trading their good draft picks for magic beans like Gibbs, Carey and Ronnie Burns which will hopefully win us a flag. I sure am.

This is going to be a 2-3 year period of pain and suffering, in that time our recruiting has to be spot on. I can tell you I would rather put up with this and have a golden era in the mid to late 2020's than finish 8th 11th 5th 3rd and 12th over the same period.

Relax, enjoy watching some kids develop and the best we can hope for is to ruin Ports top 4/8 chances along the way.

 

[Mr_Moogle]

Without changes at board level, there is no coming back from this. The question should be, how do we replace our administration? Members have no way to remove them democratically. The only avenue left is to vote with our wallets. It's a shame that we need to use tough love but I see no other way. As long as members stay loyal to the club, nothing will change.

 

[Redline]

We will get better as we can't really get any worse. The challenge will be when we start to win a few games that we don't over react and start giving out contract extensions. We have to play the long game.

 

[GreyCrow]

Relax, enjoy watching some kids develop

That would be nice. Let me know when we pick them

 

[Rankine2Rachele]

That would be nice. Let me know when we pick them

Probably when the polar ice caps have completely melted.

 

[chrisso crow]

No, they won't.

They didn't care when Port had tarps and The Crows' attendance won't even slip that far. They'll prefer it even, more justification to give prime slots to Vic teams.

The year the Crows' coach was murdered, winning a final was drowned out by a Vic club complaining that they were robbed.
2 years later to be in a GF, winning would have been the type of story they make movies about and yet it was entirely the Richmond show.You barely rated a mention.

If you're expecting the AFL to intervene or care on any level, you're in for some severe disappointment...

But they did intervene with Port, that's how Kochie got on board.

I'm not suggesting anything will happen this year, but they will intervene should this s**t show continue further down the track.

 

[chrisso crow]

Footy isn't a linear graph of performance, just because you played well one week, doesn't mean you will repeat it the next and vice versa.

We had a bad loss against a side who seem to like playing us lately, Melbourne beat Hawthorn by plenty and then a few days later play like the biggest rabble known to man.

We have had 2 agonising close losses this year, mixed with some adequate showings against some better sides like:

Brisbane
West Coast
St Kilda

Most Crows supporters are sick of finishing 6-12 and the club trading their good draft picks for magic beans like Gibbs, Carey and Ronnie Burns which will hopefully win us a flag. I sure am.

This is going to be a 2-3 year period of pain and suffering, in that time our recruiting has to be spot on. I can tell you I would rather put up with this and have a golden era in the mid to late 2020's than finish 8th 11th 5th 3rd and 12th over the same period.

Relax, enjoy watching some kids develop and the best we can hope for is to ruin Ports top 4/8 chances along the way.

The only issue being there is no guarantee of a 'golden era' that you speak of.

I'm sure Carlton supporters thought the same 10 or so years ago when they hit the bottom of the ladder for the first time...........and they're still going.

 

[TRP1996]

We have had 2 agonising close losses this year, mixed with some adequate showings against some better sides like:

Brisbane
West Coast
St Kilda

Calling a game in which we had 11 scoring shots to 33 'adequate' is a bit of a stretch, no?

 

[CrowsB4hoes]

They say winning covers all sins, and so it was proven between 2015 & 2017.

But the opposite is also true. All of our failures of the last 2 years, this year and ongoing will be put in the "rebuilding" bucket. The club can get away with murder because there are no expectations. I have heard nothing from the club to say what the standards are the next 3 seasons. Clearly the performance of the senior players have not been up to standard. How are we going to bring in a bunch of teenagers to develop into our next premiership side if the list they grow and learn from contains Atkins, Knight, Mackay - perennial losers. That's why Carlton, Melbourne, Fremantle have all been in the cycle of loserdom. Once the stink of failure is on you, it doesn't go away until you have a shake up, like Lions did bringing Fagan and Hodge in. You know, winners.

Unfortunately everything coming out of the club sounds like they think you get a few kids, put some games into them and by the time they have 100 games, they'll be rockstars.

That's why we need to bring in winners. The major factor of any future appointment - do they come from a culture of winning. It's why Clarko's assistants have all gone on to big things. They learnt how to win.

Hurn. Edwards. Puopolo. Bring these guys in as either playing or non-playing roles. They aren't there to win games of football themselves. They are there to look around the place, compare it to their teams that won flags, and say "what the * are you guys doing?"

 

[davos44]

The only issue being there is no guarantee of a 'golden era' that you speak of.

I'm sure Carlton supporters thought the same 10 or so years ago when they hit the bottom of the ladder for the first time...........and they're still going.

As I said, if we nail our recruitment we will be fine. Having picks 1, 13ish, 20 and 30 this year helps bring in some top level talent to at least give us a shot at creating a great side.

Carlton and Melbourne bottomed out right when GWS and Gold Coast took the bulk of best talent in the league at that time.

We have "picked" a good period to be rubbish at the very least.

 

[Bob Neil]

Here's some stats that provide context to the challenge of rebuilding a club from the bottom 4.

If you look at the period 2000-2019 that is 20 completed seasons...therefore there are 80 'teams' (i.e. a combo of the club & season such as ADE2012 or WB2005) that have finished in the bottom 4 across that period. That is a decent sample set from which to make some generalisations.

Of the 18 clubs there is only one - Geelong - that hasn't had a bottom 4 finish in that timeframe...so virtually everyone has 'had a turn'.

Of the 80 teams to finish bottom 4 there were 30 examples of them then making the top 4 within a 5 year timeframe (e.g. us going from 14th in 2011 which was bottom 4 in a 17-team comp to 3rd in 2012). That is a 37.5% probability and therefore a very reasonable goal of any club that is going down the rebuilding path as we are.

Interestingly the Bulldogs (5x bottom 4) and West Coast (4x) have each 'bounced back' into the top 4 within 5 years 100% of the time in contrast to Carlton (9x) and Brisbane (8x) who have yet to 'bounce back' at all (reasonable chance the Lions do that this year)...and Melbourne who have only bounced back once in eight times.

Of those 30 teams who did bounce back to make the top 4 within 5 years, 12 of them made a grand final and five of them won a flag so it is definitely possible to do this if all goes to plan but clearly the odds are low.

 

[Brasher]

Here's some stats that provide context to the challenge of rebuilding a club from the bottom 4.

If you look at the period 2000-2019 that is 20 completed seasons...therefore there are 80 'teams' (i.e. a combo of the club & season such as ADE2012 or WB2005) that have finished in the bottom 4 across that period. That is a decent sample set from which to make some generalisations.

Of the 18 clubs there is only one - Geelong - that hasn't had a bottom 4 finish in that timeframe...so virtually everyone has 'had a turn'.

Of the 80 teams to finish bottom 4 there were 30 examples of them then making the top 4 within a 5 year timeframe (e.g. us going from 14th in 2011 which was bottom 4 in a 17-team comp to 3rd in 2012). That is a 37.5% probability and therefore a very reasonable goal of any club that is going down the rebuilding path as we are.

Interestingly the Bulldogs (5x bottom 4) and West Coast (4x) have each 'bounced back' into the top 4 within 5 years 100% of the time in contrast to Carlton (9x) and Brisbane (8x) who have yet to 'bounce back' at all (reasonable chance the Lions do that this year)...and Melbourne who have only bounced back once in eight times.

Of those 30 teams who did bounce back to make the top 4 within 5 years, 12 of them made a grand final and five of them won a flag so it is definitely possible to do this if all goes to plan but clearly the odds are low.

Good work...I take a slightly diffferent outcome to your conclusion in that rather than the 37.5% bounce back statistic, there seems to be two camps....the perennial underachiever (Carlton, Melbourne, Brisbane) or the bottom out quickly in order to get a good rebound (WC, WB). Which camp are the Crows? I think we have to look at the reason for the fall to determine which direction we will head from here.

 

[chrisso crow]

As I said, if we nail our recruitment we will be fine. Having picks 1, 13ish, 20 and 30 this year helps bring in some top level talent to at least give us a shot at creating a great side.

Carlton and Melbourne bottomed out right when GWS and Gold Coast took the bulk of best talent in the league at that time.

We have "picked" a good period to be rubbish at the very least.

Top draft picks don't guarantee top end footballers. There's a big list of players selected at the top end who didn't make the grade at AFL level for one reason or another.

Are any of the Vic draftee's even playing anywhere this year?

 

[Dangerousfield]

This year is what it is now, next year 2021 can't be any better because next years list probably won't be any better, first year players rarely make a difference and no decent players are moving to us in this comatosed state of club affairs. Lets assume 2022 will be a little better.

So focus on 2023 as the first season we could realistically be moving up. What players on our current list will be best 18/22 in 2023? When you do the exercise it is frightening how few of our current players feature in 2023 and shows how much we need to nail every single draft pick from now. We also don't need any more defections home, worried about McAsey here.

The task facing us to rebuild is immense, I really fear what lies ahead.

 

[Jarman3]

Well first step is for a total clean out.

Hope everyone on here is prepared to go to the AGM. It is the one time you do get to voice your opinion. If you aren’t prepared to go then shut the fu** up and stop whinging.

Mind you, watch the f***ers try and do a Zoom AGM or abandon it totally. Wouldn’t put it past them.

We can go to the AGM and speak our piece and it won't make a rat's of difference because we can't vote out the board, and they all know it. They don't care what we have to say because they're the experts, remember?

You can stand up at the AGM to say your piece and 7 out of 9 members of the board can flip you the bird, climb up on the table and take a synchronized dump on it while you're speaking and there's not a damn thing any of us can do about it.

Until we, as members, have the power to hold the board accountable, they will continue to hold us in contempt.

 

[Ozzie]

Bullshit. The AFL made the call. We didn't have the balls to say no.

Jenny read on a bit that's exactly what I said in another post.

 

[kirky]

We can go to the AGM and speak our piece and it won't make a rat's of difference because we can't vote out the board, and they all know it. They don't care what we have to say because they're the experts, remember?

You can stand up at the AGM to say your piece and 7 out of 9 members of the board can flip you the bird, climb up on the table and take a synchronized dump on it while you're speaking and there's not a damn thing any of us can do about it.

Until we, as members, have the power to hold the board accountable, they will continue to hold us in contempt.

I’m fully aware but stay away does even less. If you say got 200 in a room all dissatisfied they would sense and act one would hope. Strength is in numbers.

 

[Vhaluus]

I’m fully aware but stay away does even less. If you say got 200 in a room all dissatisfied they would sense and act one would hope. Strength is in numbers.

They might just tell you to go support a different club again...

 

[kirky]

They might just tell you to go support a different club again...

Seriously, nothing gets solved sitting on ones arse at home whinging and complaining. No point not paying your membership ticket, there is always someone waiting to replace you.

A physical presence gets noticed.

 

[Niximus]

Here's some stats that provide context to the challenge of rebuilding a club from the bottom 4.

If you look at the period 2000-2019 that is 20 completed seasons...therefore there are 80 'teams' (i.e. a combo of the club & season such as ADE2012 or WB2005) that have finished in the bottom 4 across that period. That is a decent sample set from which to make some generalisations.

If you want to see what company the AFC keeps, have a look at the teams that finished top 2 in that time and how far they were removed from their closest flag (before or after). I did a while ago and just had a look to update.

Infinite [1] - Fremantle (15)
43 Years [1] - St Kilda (09)
19 Years [1] - Adelaide (17)
16 Years [1] - Brisbane (19)
14 Years [1] - Adelaide (12)
8 Years [1] - Adelaide (06)
7 Years [2] - Adelaide (05), Collingwood (03)
6 Years [1] - Geelong (17)
5 Years [1] - Geelong (16), Carlton (00)
4 Years [1] - Sydney (16)
3 Years [2] - West Coast (15), Port (07)
2 Years [3] - Sydney (14), Geelong (13), Port (02)
1 Year [9] - Richmond (18), Hawthorn (12), Collingwood (11), Geelong (10), Geelong (8), West Coast (05), Brisbane (04), Port (03), Essendon (01)
0 Years [14] - Richmond (19), West Coast (18), Hawthorn (14), Hawthorn (13), Geelong, (11), Collingwood (10), Geelong (09), Hawthorn (08), Geelong (07), West Coast (06), Port (04), Brisbane (02), Brisbane (01), Essendon (00)

Of the 40 teams who finished top 2 in that time 23 either won a flag that year, or in one of the years either side of it.
Only 8 were 7 years or more removed from a flag, half of those were Adelaide. A Brisbane flag this year (or any in the next 6) and they jump out of that 16 years spot and it's 4/7 of the worst.

It shows that most clubs when they go through a period where they are one of the 'good teams', will usually earn a flag somewhere in there. It might not be the year they finish top 2, but that period of success earns them a flag at some point in there. With one really obvious stand out exception.

If St Kilda get one before 2028 and Fremantle before 2034 the Crows could be sitting top of this chart.

 

[davos44]

Top draft picks don't guarantee top end footballers. There's a big list of players selected at the top end who didn't make the grade at AFL level for one reason or another.

Are any of the Vic draftee's even playing anywhere this year?

Of course, that's why I said it gives us a shot, instead of having to rely on the likes of Sloane, Tippet, Jenkins, Atkins etc who were lower (higher number) draft picks. They are good support players, but not your primary guns, we got lucky with Sloane but around 1 or 2 A graders he would be amazing.

 

[mort0089]

This year is what it is now, next year 2021 can't be any better because next years list probably won't be any better, first year players rarely make a difference and no decent players are moving to us in this comatosed state of club affairs. Lets assume 2022 will be a little better.

So focus on 2023 as the first season we could realistically be moving up. What players on our current list will be best 18/22 in 2023? When you do the exercise it is frightening how few of our current players feature in 2023 and shows how much we need to nail every single draft pick from now. We also don't need any more defections home, worried about McAsey here.

The task facing us to rebuild is immense, I really fear what lies ahead.

Yep, we are in for a decade of pain.

 

[Niximus]

If you want to see what company the AFC keeps, have a look at the teams that finished top 2 in that time and how far they were removed from their closest flag (before or after). I did a while ago and just had a look to update.

So, to add to this. Based on these results, if you finished top 2 your chance to win the flag was
That year - 35%
1 year removed - 57.5%

Amount of top 2 finishes 2000-2019
Geelong - 8
Adelaide - 4
Brisbane - 4
Hawthorn - 4
Port Adelaide - 4
West Coast - 4
Collingwood - 3
Essendon - 2
Richmond - 2
Sydney - 2
Carlton - 1
Fremantle - 1
St Kilda - 1

So just on the probility of winning the flag the same year as being top 2 (35%), with 4 chances there was an 82.15% chance that one of 05, 06, 12, or 17 would have resulted in a flag. If you expand it to one year either side and it's a 57.5% chance on 05, 06, 12, and 17 being within one year of a flag, the probability of NOT winning a flag in any of those years is 3.26%.