AFL 'Bet of the Round' POTY

[GROTTO]

iluvparis NonPhixion


~24 hours to go before you get your 3 bets in. If you dont, I am automatically awarding myself Punter of The Year title.

Im kinda hoping neither of you send me in your bets.




Just on that, if your bet is voided, there is no opportunity to resubmit another bet. Hence pick wisely and be aware of late players potentially being an out.

Its all about strategy and being the most cunning and astute of all punters in this Grand Final.


balmainforever Chism can you please make this thread a sticky if possible just till this time next week? Thanks. The winner deserves to be acknowledged widely on this forum, to achieve punter of the year in AFL is no easy feat esp with all the bs rules I have made ad hoc on the fly.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Brodie Smith u20.5 $1.88BE

Smith is the Crow's most important ball mover and North are a tagging team. If he stays at HB he'll get Pittard. If he moves through the middle, Anderson or McDonald. North are a good clearance side even without Cunnington and the Crows are the worst in the league by far (even the bombers managed 11 in a row last week). So even with the captaincy and more mid mins this week, i still think he's going to struggle. He is 2/8 so far in 2020 on this marker.

 

[langdon19]

Nothing I like this week, teams playing each other on strange venues takes away data. I generally bet totals.
saints into WC $1.98 boosted at SB

 

[Benjo_]

Brodie Smith u20.5 $1.88BE

Smith is the Crow's most important ball mover and North are a tagging team. If he stays at HB he'll get Pittard. If he moves through the middle, Anderson or McDonald. North are a good clearance side even without Cunnington and the Crows are the worst in the league by far (even the bombers managed 11 in a row last week). So even with the captaincy and more mid mins this week, i still think he's going to struggle. He is 2/8 so far in 2020 on this marker.

Yeh love this bet. On the topic of taggers, I'm also a big fan of Lloyd under 25.5 on SB. Should be a certainty to attract a tag from Geary (tagged Johanissen, Smith and Doch in recent weeks).

Also considered Tim Kelly (Guthrie tag) and Luke Parker (Steele tag) unders, although I'm not sure if those two will tag due their brilliant current form as a ball winning mid for their respective teams.

 

[langdon19]

wrong thread?

After what the hawks have done to him I think you should multi them up and give them to him.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Looks like a favourite's round to me. Can't see Sydney, Essendon, Geelong or Fremantle winning given form or in particular industries. Might just go for a double with St Kilda and Brisbane at $1.98 TAB.

I think Ess hits the wall here. Scrounging out narrow wins against weak opposition with a weal line up given injuries. Distinct lack of key forwards means Andrews should dominate.

1u NM H2H
1u NM -10.5

Lets keep the favs rolling with 1u on StK H2H and 1.5u StK -14.5.

mookieb, The idea on this thread is that you post 1 bet, your best bet, per round.
I've already taken your first one so don't post any more please. Delete the second and third posts please.
Thanks

 

[JuniorWatch]

GROTTO and Hellboy101 still to come

 

[GROTTO]

Eagles -14.5 @$1.90

Short turnaround for the Cats/hit by injuries/Eagles at genuine home should be too strong.

Expect the game to be tight for 2-3 quarters, with the Eagles to kick away as the game progresses.

 

[mookieb]

mookieb, The idea on this thread is that you post 1 bet, your best bet, per round.
I've already taken your first one so don't post any more please. Delete the second and third posts please.
Thanks

Oops that's my bad. I thought it was the normal Round 9 thread for a couple of those posts. Take my first bet no probs.

 

[Hellboy101]

Peeryman 15+, GWS and WC win @ 2.7 sportsbet

 

[JuniorWatch]

Well that's more like it. 10/14 winners this week, taking the group ROI to 30%.
We're starting to see some expertise in specific areas. Ohh Ok on the H2H's, NonPhixion with the GS markets. langdon19 and Sausage Legs both 2-0 as well. Hellboy101 took out the biggest priced winner with his 3 leg multi.
The 'not AFL standard Billy Gowers clanger of the week award' this week goes to mouncey2franklin for tipping Josh Walker AGS when he spent the entire game in the backline. In saying that I had a 0.5u on AGS as well so you weren't alone. All worth it for the Majak moment.



Next round starts tomorrow so get your thinking caps on.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Getting in before the forecast rain thurs-fri.
Mitch Georgiades anytime goal scorer into GWS to beat Don's. 2.77. Bet 365

 

[Ohh Ok]

Geelong SU, Melbourne SU @ $2.07 (365)

Like backing superior teams coming off of a loss.

Bit of a let down spot for North after a big win. Geelong are 1-2 since starting hub life, and should be aided by the return of Narkle and Selwood. Rough loss to the eagles after leading most of the match, will be looking to bounce back. Much better side than North. Really important that they get the job done here and prove that they can handle the hub life which will be their reality for the foreseeable future.

Melbourne get two extra days break vs the crows which will be massively valuable. They’ll be looking to bounce back after a close loss vs Lions and a bit of a reality check vs Port. They’ll still fancy themselves as a final contender, so giving the crows a touch up is a great spot for them.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Geelong SU, Melbourne SU @ $2.07 (365)

Like backing superior teams coming off of a loss.

Bit of a let down spot for North after a big win. Geelong are 1-2 since starting hub life, and should be aided by the return of Narkle and Selwood. Rough loss to the eagles after leading most of the match, will be looking to bounce back. Much better side than North. Really important that they get the job done here and prove that they can handle the hub life which will be their reality for the foreseeable future.

Melbourne get two extra days break vs the crows which will be massively valuable. They’ll be looking to bounce back after a close loss vs Lions and a bit of a reality check vs Port. They’ll still fancy themselves as a final contender, so giving the crows a touch up is a great spot for them.

Gawn in doubt

 

[GROTTO]

Port v Dogs Bont AGS $2.20 SB

 

[GROTTO]

Gawn in doubt

Maybe.

But the Adelaide Football Club is in doubt too.

 

[squeaky1000]

Saints, GWS H2H multi $2.40 bet365

Suns have been very impressive this year but have started to show signs of tiring the last two weeks for mine, particularly on the weekend with some of their younger players and face a short turn around to Thursday night. On the flipside Saints are flying at the moment but shouldn't be getting ahead of themselves given the games they've dropped, and get an extra day of rest.
Giants playing far from their best footy atm but have still managed to get it done the last two weeks and more games into Taranto and Williams should bode well. Greene obviously a massive out but think they can get the job done still, Essendon are really battling and I just struggle to see where enough goals can come from in their forward line to put up a match winning score.

 

[langdon19]

Port vs Dogs U119.5 $1.90 PB
Got it at 115, not in my betting zone but hoping for a tight tussle with increased pressure on shots.

 

[iluvparis]

Richmond SU @ $2 (TAB)

 

[mookieb]

Richmond SU @ $2 (TAB)

Not just directed at you ILP, but can we add reasoning to each selection so we can get an idea behind the rationale for the pick?

 

[JuniorWatch]

Not just directed at you ILP, but can we add reasoning to each selection so we can get an idea behind the rationale for the pick?

Yeah that would great. I wrote that up in the OP. Would be good to know how people on here analyse the markets in order to come up with their bets so we can all learn different angles to come at it. Realise the footy is coming thick and fast atm so people might not have time though.

 

[GROTTO]

Not just directed at you ILP, but can we add reasoning to each selection so we can get an idea behind the rationale for the pick?

Yeah that would great. I wrote that up in the OP. Would be good to know how people on here analyse the markets in order to come up with their bets so we can all learn different angles to come at it. Realise the footy is coming thick and fast atm so people might not have time though.

Apologies, I did post in the betting thread, why I thought Bont was a good bet for AGS, not this one.

 

[langdon19]

junior what is the prize?

 

[JuniorWatch]

junior what is the prize?

Says the guy who just went 3 in a row
I think the prize is probably mad respect and also all of the money #1 made on the way to getting there.
Btw, would be good to know your reasoning as well about why you choose certain totals to bet on. But also if you don't want to give away your secrets, that's fine too.

 

[Sausage Legs]

Getting in before the forecast rain thurs-fri.
Mitch Georgiades anytime goal scorer into GWS to beat Don's. 2.77. Bet 365

Yeah had my first loser Tonite. Both legs were crunched in. Was the first time in his 4 game career failed to sausage up. Got his dukes on it in enough contests but didn't clunk many. Finally had a ping 30 out directly on front from a set shot and sprayed it. Still think was a good bet and would take the odds again. Just not Tonite.

 

[langdon19]

Btw, would be good to know your reasoning as well about why you choose certain totals to bet on. But also if you don't want to give away your secrets, that's fine too.

Mate it’s a hard year for me as my model looks at the teams on and off their home grounds. Port at AO was one of the few games I can actually model this round. Rich and Bris at Metricon tomorrow night has never happened before, very hard to cap. I thought I summed it up that a bit of increased pressure from two teams going for the 8 would see a few sprayed shots and the total fall under the 120, (I capped at 115). I don’t have kayo or free to air so did not get to watch but it seemEd a few misses got the bet home.
Loved the U52 for the dogs as well, Port concede 46 or so points at home and dogs score 50 at AO. Thought the U120 was a bit safer so went with that.