AFL 'Bet of the Round' POTY

[GROTTO]

iluvparis NonPhixion


~24 hours to go before you get your 3 bets in. If you dont, I am automatically awarding myself Punter of The Year title.

Im kinda hoping neither of you send me in your bets.




Just on that, if your bet is voided, there is no opportunity to resubmit another bet. Hence pick wisely and be aware of late players potentially being an out.

Its all about strategy and being the most cunning and astute of all punters in this Grand Final.


balmainforever Chism can you please make this thread a sticky if possible just till this time next week? Thanks. The winner deserves to be acknowledged widely on this forum, to achieve punter of the year in AFL is no easy feat esp with all the bs rules I have made ad hoc on the fly.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Gresham AGS $1.91 at SB $2.25 at unibet.

Has kicked at least one goal every match for the past six matches.

 

[mookieb]

Geel -2.5 3rd qtr line UB $1.92. Ranked 3rd vs 14th. Think StK tail off here after a good run.

I thought I posted the above pre-match but forgot to hit enter. Odds are probably near the same, but if not allowed then i'll run with Hawks -3.5 SB $1.90. Think Hawks are clearly the better team, they should play the ground well (similar to the MCG) and with an older team should be refreshed by the break.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Geel -2.5 3rd qtr line UB $1.92. Ranked 3rd vs 14th. Think StK tail off here after a good run.

I thought I posted the above pre-match but forgot to hit enter. Odds are probably near the same, but if not allowed then i'll run with Hawks -3.5 SB $1.90. Think Hawks are clearly the better team, they should play the ground well (similar to the MCG) and with an older team should be refreshed by the break.

Gonna have to take the Hawks line sorry mookieb

 

[JuniorWatch]

Sidebottom o21.5 $1.85 Lads

Pies are down on healthy players. Sidebottom should have a heavier responsibility and more time in the midfield.
He's relatively fresh after the ban. Is 4/6 on the season. Averages 23. Crows midfield...pile of dead bodies etc.
Little scared of the Keays tag because they're well matched, but Keays hasn't done a hard tag since Gaff.

 

[GROTTO]

Stengle AGS $2 SB

Playing as basically the only small forward in the Crows more tallish forward line in conditions that should suit him, I do like his chances here esp given that Murphy is an out for the Crows.

Only 2 games of his career where he hasnt had a shot on goal. Career average is 1.0

Those that dont know him, think of him as "poor man" Eddie Betts. Importantly he is a selfish opportunistic forward and will take the shot if given a chance. You want that kind of mindset when taking goal scorers.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Hellboy101 must like something in tomorrow's game...

BTW:
Can always pass and just get 0%ROI for the round.
Handy if you're away for the weekend (n/a in Vic) or need a punting break

 

[Hellboy101]

Hellboy101 must like something in tomorrow's game...
GWS -19.5 over 125.5 @3.20.
Think GWS come really hard after last week

 

[langdon19]

Geelong vs Port U128.5 BE
These 2 play low scores
Metricon producing low scores
Port (rich game aside) playing defensive footy.
edit 1.88

 

[langdon19]

Can always pass and just get 0%ROI for the round.

Not sure this is ok, can I just pass the rest of the comp and my roi stays the same?
Can we all have 1 or as many pass weeks as we like?

 

[JuniorWatch]

Not sure this is ok, can I just pass the rest of the comp and my roi stays the same?
Can we all have 1 or as many pass weeks as we like?

Just another one of my half-baked idea Langers.
Wanna give people a choice of a break if they need it.
I do like the 1 pass per player idea. Maybe we'll do that.
I don't think anyone would repeatedly pass to keep their ROI just to win. That's taking the piss pretty hard and most of us are too deep in the punt to consider it. But i reckon we'll go with 1 pass per player and maybe can't pass in the last round if you're in front.
But also atm there's no minimum so nothing stopping a leader from posting 1.01 odds. So maybe i should create one.

 

[langdon19]

leader from posting 1.01 odds. So maybe i should create one

Thought there was a 1.80 minimum.
1.01 odds would crash your ROI???
Yeah one pass is a good idea that I would back, I don’t find many bets this year with the strange venues.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Thought there was a 1.80 minimum.
1.01 odds would crash your ROI???
Yeah one pass is a good idea that I would back, I don’t find many bets this year with the strange venues.

Haha oh yeah true.
Ok let's go with 1 pass per member.
Sometimes you just can't find something you love.
I really struggled this week for certainty and it showed with Sidebum. Got a 22 poss on 21.5 line. Coin toss.

 

[Ohh Ok]

Haha oh yeah true.
Ok let's go with 1 pass per member.
Sometimes you just can't find something you love.
I really struggled this week for certainty and it showed with Sidebum. Got a 22 poss on 21.5 line. Coin toss.

Was there a dodgy one in there? Sidey is still in the pending bets for me

Also your OP said $1.80 as minimum.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Was there a dodgy one in there? Sidey is still in the pending bets for me

Also your OP said $1.80 as minimum.

Yeah the $1.80 minimum was there when I was being lazy and just going score the leaderboard based on WIN/LOSS.
Removed that rule when we went to ROI based scoring.

 

[iluvparis]

Not sure this is ok, can I just pass the rest of the comp and my roi stays the same?
Can we all have 1 or as many pass weeks as we like?

Yeah you can't let people pass - must bet every round.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Yeah you can't let people pass - must bet every round.

I love a good poll

 

[Sausage Legs]

Firstly I'd acknowledge 3 leg multis are fraught with danger when talking about a moral bet.
But....
Bris over Kangs
Eags over Hawks
GWS over Swans
1.84 pointsbet.
- These are top 4 contenders playing bottom 4 rabbles.
- The faves have had extra day/s break over the underdogs which is in favour.
- All games are played at venues which favour the fave.
From here on there are teams contending then there are cue in the rack teams. This is an instance of guns playing teams similar to Cameron Lings brother, Struggle Ling.
If it's good enuf for me to load a couple hunge of my hard earnt it's good enuf to take as my freebie selection here. Get in.

 

[JuniorWatch]

Round 11 Results
7 wins, 6 losses. 33% YTD ROI.
The clear standout this week was OhhDeledio with his 3-leg Tigers multi (Riewoldt 1st half AGS, Riewoldt 2+, Ross 15+) at $7.50. That's shot him up to 2nd just behind serial GS sniper NonPhixion who hit again with Josh Battle. Some of us are going to have to start upping the odds in order to catch the leaders.
Impressively 4 members are 4-0. langdon19 all over the total points and Ohh Ok doing it all.
Sadly the Brown-Gowers Award this week goes un-awarded due to the lack of mares.

 

[iluvparis]

Are you aware of the sort function in excel?

 

[JuniorWatch]

Are you aware of the sort function in excel?

I am not but I'll learn it am apply for next week

 

[Ohh Ok]

GWS/Brisbane/Bulldogs/West Coast @ $2.01 (Topsport) - can boost to $2.06 on lads.

Hate to do it, as long terms these aren’t profitable, but this one is lockable. Will add a write up later on.

 

[Sausage Legs]

GWS/Brisbane/Bulldogs/West Coast @ $2.01 (Topsport) - can boost to $2.06 on lads.

Hate to do it, as long terms these aren’t profitable, but this one is lockable. Will add a write up later on.

Exactly what I wanted to do but dogs odds weren't up and I thought the 1.20 about other teams would disappear.

 

[Ohh Ok]

Exactly what I wanted to do but dogs odds weren't up and I thought the 1.20 about other teams would disappear.

Yeh, I was sitting on it hoping they’d hold, but unfortunately shortened a bit on me.

 

[Ohh Ok]

GWS/Brisbane/Bulldogs/West Coast @ $2.01 (Topsport) - can boost to $2.06 on lads.

Hate to do it, as long terms these aren’t profitable, but this one is lockable. Will add a write up later on.

WCE and Brisbane off a day extra break, Bulldogs off two extra. GWS and Sydney both “fresh” off a bye.


-GWS sitting in 8th, building momentum, foot is heavy on the gas and a win will see them firm in their position in the 8. Sydney ultra depleted and starting to give the kids a run. Two teams with different aspirations.


-North another ultra depleted side who seem to have a bit of an unsettled bunch at the moment. Brisbane far too much quality and continue pushing and cementing their spot.


-Bulldogs a must win. Have lost their last 3 against top 4 sides. A must win game to get back in the 8 vs the winless crows.


-WCE playing their home ground and will outclass the Hawks. Lots of competition for a top 4 spot, so plenty to play for.

Essentially backing against the 4 bottoms sides and putting my money with some teams that have a lot more to play for and a reason to win

 

[squeaky1000]

Hoping to start the round off well.
SGM: GWS h2h, Lloyd and Whitfield 20+, Taranto and Hopper 15+ $2.10 SB

As has already been touched on expecting a comfortable win for the Giants, I still don't think they're playing particularly well but doing enough to win and a severe drop in class of opposition against the Swans.
Lloyd and Whitfield have gone 20+ last 6+ games straight and two of the most reliable going around for high numbers week in week out.
Expecting Giants to have a fair bit of the ball and Taranto and Hopper should rack it up, Taranto is well and truly back now and Hopper hasn't gone under 18 in his past 5 games.