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Austoraisetheurn said:
Exactly right.

We soon find out who are the lightweights when the blow torch has been applied.

I regularly wager 4 figure sums on outcomes. I move markets. I alter outcomes.

You need to remove your emotions to succeed in this game.

It does come at a cost.

Are you prepared to pay the price?
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Thanks Allan Jeans.
So weather looks a bit dodgy next test and Stokes is out for the series. This will be the best odds we get for England for the whole series. Get on!
 
EDFL follower said:
Thanks Allan Jeans.
So weather looks a bit dodgy next test and Stokes is out for the series. This will be the best odds we get for England for the whole series. Get on!
Click to expand...

I don't often bet on H2H match markets. Perhaps I will get on if certain sides/grounds have a huge bat 1st/bat 2nd difference in results and the market underrates the influence on the price being offered.

However, what ultimately matters is the price your opinion can get from the bookies. That determines whether the bet is a goer.

We arent in the business of trying to predict winners or losers, we are in the business of sniping at wrong prices offered by the bookmaker on an event occurring.

If the bookies are good at their job, then there won't be a bet to place.
 
EDFL follower said:
Thanks Allan Jeans.
So weather looks a bit dodgy next test and Stokes is out for the series. This will be the best odds we get for England for the whole series. Get on!
Click to expand...

Indeed. Good spot. But as I have banged on about at nauseum. The price is what counts. Nothing else!

I am loathe to ever back Pakistan in a H2H contest. But give me the right price, and I may be loathe to part with my illicit gains.

Let's have a look at some markets and see if we can find any inefficient markets
 

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Chris Woakes is an interesting cricketer.

I personally don't rate him as a bowler, but he nabs wickets in English conditions against subcontinental teams. Against India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka ( in England) he has taken 3 or more wickets on 9 occasions out of 13 innings (1st innings only - doesnt include 3rd or 4th innings).

He has a superb record against Pakistan.

To take over 2.5 wickets @ 2.35 is a no brainer bet with TopSport.

This is a bet you should take. If you dont, you have no business being a gambler. Stick to slot machines. Rookies.
 
Austoraisetheurn said:
I don't often bet on H2H match markets. Perhaps I will get on if certain sides/grounds have a huge bat 1st/bat 2nd difference in results and the market underrates the influence on the price being offered.

However, what ultimately matters is the price your opinion can get from the bookies. That determines whether the bet is a goer.

We arent in the business of trying to predict winners or losers, we are in the business of sniping at wrong prices offered by the bookmaker on an event occurring.

If the bookies are good at their job, then there won't be a bet to place.
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You do realise that the bookies don't set the price. That is done by the public - the punters. They get it wrong in nearly every test match!
You are 100% correct that price is the most important factor.
England playing at home are better than even money against a team that couldn't defend a 100 run lead on the first innings just because Stokes is out and there are a few showers forecast. They are definitely overs!!
 
EDFL follower said:
You do realise that the bookies don't set the price. That is done by the public - the punters. They get it wrong in nearly every test match!
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I'm not sure the is a correct statement in any of those three sentences.
 
EDFL follower said:
You do realise that the bookies don't set the price. That is done by the public - the punters. They get it wrong in nearly every test match!
You are 100% correct that price is the most important factor.
England playing at home are better than even money against a team that couldn't defend a 100 run lead on the first innings just because Stokes is out and there are a few showers forecast. They are definitely overs!!
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Bookmakers frame the original markets when they release them to us plebs. Bookmakers anchor the market with their original prices offered, indeed, if a weight of money moves the markets then the bookies adjust their price, ultimately they have to manage their risk like anyone else.

But to argue that the markets offered by the bookies are totally determined by punters is a bit of a stretch.

I have also added 2 bets to my portfolio.....in the long run i have lost money betting this market, so that is me being straight and upfront. Unlike many that populate this board.

Be that as it may....let's go to work.

Azhar Ali Caught No @ $2.34 with TopSport....i have also added a small bet for him to be out LBW @ $4.00 in the first innings, once again with the lads at ToppySport.

England seem to target Ali's stumps searching for LBWs and Bowled....20 dismissals in England for ALI v England. 9 of those have been LBW. Fair price should be $2.22, not 4.

Similarly, Ali to be out Not Caught has cashed 14/20. Fair price should be $1.42, not $2.34.

As I said, I have lost money long term betting these markets, however, I cant not get involved when the above data is so glaring.
 
Austoraisetheurn said:
Bookmakers frame the original markets when they release them to us plebs. Bookmakers anchor the market with their original prices offered, indeed, if a weight of money moves the markets then the bookies adjust their price, ultimately they have to manage their risk like anyone else.

But to argue that the markets offered by the bookies are totally determined by punters is a bit of a stretch.

I have also added 2 bets to my portfolio.....in the long run i have lost money betting this market, so that is me being straight and upfront. Unlike many that populate this board.

Be that as it may....let's go to work.

Azhar Ali Caught No @ $2.34 with TopSport....i have also added a small bet for him to be out LBW @ $4.00 in the first innings, once again with the lads at ToppySport.

England seem to target Ali's stumps searching for LBWs and Bowled....20 dismissals in England for ALI v England. 9 of those have been LBW. Fair price should be $2.22, not 4.

Similarly, Ali to be out Not Caught has cashed 14/20. Fair price should be $1.42, not $2.34.

As I said, I have lost money long term betting these markets, however, I cant not get involved when the above data is so glaring.
Click to expand...

Bookmakers follow Betfair which is set by the punters. Across thousands of sports it is extremely unusual for any bookmaker to give better odds than Betfair. To be honest anyone who is a serious punter would rarely if ever use a bookmaker. Betfair is the place to bet. I’m not talking about the exotic markets that you seem to like. I’m talking about where the real money is - Match odds. It’s quite easy to prove. Go find any sport where you can get better odds with a bookmaker than you can on Betfair then all you have to do is back it with them and lay it on Betfair. Good luck finding one because it almost never happens!
 
EDFL follower said:
Bookmakers follow Betfair which is set by the punters. Across thousands of sports it is extremely unusual for any bookmaker to give better odds than Betfair. To be honest anyone who is a serious punter would rarely if ever use a bookmaker. Betfair is the place to bet. I’m not talking about the exotic markets that you seem to like. I’m talking about where the real money is - Match odds. It’s quite easy to prove. Go find any sport where you can get better odds with a bookmaker than you can on Betfair then all you have to do is back it with them and lay it on Betfair. Good luck finding one because it almost never happens!
Click to expand...

Mate. I am a serious punter. I dont like trading cricket matches or any sports. The odd occasion I have hedged a H2H result on betfair.

Generally speaking, I find my punting to be best when I make decisions when my emotions are settled. Trading is not for me, good luck to those who can do it.

I love the exotics and I keep detailed records of my bets.

To be described as an amateur punter is nothing short of a disgrace.
 
Austoraisetheurn said:
Mate. I am a serious punter. I dont like trading cricket matches or any sports. The odd occasion I have hedged a H2H result on betfair.

Generally speaking, I find my punting to be best when I make decisions when my emotions are settled. Trading is not for me, good luck to those who can do it.

I love the exotics and I keep detailed records of my bets.

To be described as an amateur punter is nothing short of a disgrace.
Click to expand...
I dont trade either.
And if u love the exotics that’s great and u seem to have a good system for them which is great. The only problem with that is that you can never win any real money betting on exotics. I don’t do exotics but I’m sure that they would cap your bet size to prevent you from winning too much. You can bet as much as you want on Betfair. Already well over a million dollars matched on tomorrow’s test and will probably end up over 100 million so if u can find an edge in the match odds market you can make serious money!
 
EDFL follower said:
I dont trade either.
And if u love the exotics that’s great and u seem to have a good system for them which is great. The only problem with that is that you can never win any real money betting on exotics. I don’t do exotics but I’m sure that they would cap your bet size to prevent you from winning too much. You can bet as much as you want on Betfair. Already well over a million dollars matched on tomorrow’s test and will probably end up over 100 million so if u can find an edge in the match odds market you can make serious money!
Click to expand...

Fair points. I see my gambling more as a hobby then income stream, however, i am not shy of some large 4 figure bets if i get in a mood.

Laying the draw is an angle one could come at with this match tomorrow between England and Pakistan.

I dont trade, but if i did, id be drawing up a plan on how I see a match going once the toss has taken place. And then looking at areas where i could enter if there was a bit of value.

I also thinking using technical analysis on the betfair graph to identify areas of resistance and/or support is also underrated; much like a stock or forex trader.

Combining the fundamental analysis with some technical analysis could be quite lucrative if done correctly. However, like most speculation, managing human emotions is 90% of the battle. Technical analysis is not to predict where the price would go, but rather to get in an area where there is a good risk/reward profile.

For example, if England win the toss and bat, then the statistics show that the draw has happened 1/25 occasions in the last 10 years in England when England have won the toss and had a hit first (England at home). Here would be a good chance to lay the draw, but ONLY, once the price had reached an area that represents value. Id personally wait for the draw to come into 2.20ish and then lay that price as hard as i could. If the price just blows out and never reaches 2.20...then let it go. Have a plan and stick to it.

One has to be patient in this game.

That would be my plan of attack if the toss went my way.

If not, then id look to bet else where.
 
Austoraisetheurn said:
Fair points. I see my gambling more as a hobby then income stream, however, i am not shy of some large 4 figure bets if i get in a mood.

Laying the draw is an angle one could come at with this match tomorrow between England and Pakistan.

I dont trade, but if i did, id be drawing up a plan on how I see a match going once the toss has taken place. And then looking at areas where i could enter if there was a bit of value.

I also thinking using technical analysis on the betfair graph to identify areas of resistance and/or support is also underrated; much like a stock or forex trader.

Combining the fundamental analysis with some technical analysis could be quite lucrative if done correctly. However, like most speculation, managing human emotions is 90% of the battle. Technical analysis is not to predict where the price would go, but rather to get in an area where there is a good risk/reward profile.

For example, if England win the toss and bat, then the statistics show that the draw has happened 1/25 occasions in the last 10 years in England when England have won the toss and had a hit first (England at home). Here would be a good chance to lay the draw, but ONLY, once the price had reached an area that represents value. Id personally wait for the draw to come into 2.20ish and then lay that price as hard as i could. If the price just blows out and never reaches 2.20...then let it go. Have a plan and stick to it.

One has to be patient in this game.

That would be my plan of attack if the toss went my way.

If not, then id look to bet else where.
Click to expand...
Lay the draw in all test cricket matches over the last few years has give a 7percent ROI. Nothing too great but better than 99.9 percent of punters are returning!
 
EDFL follower said:
Lay the draw in all test cricket matches over the last few years has give a 7percent ROI. Nothing too great but better than 99.9 percent of punters are returning!
Click to expand...

That is if you take the prices at the off. Id at least wait for the toss and then use stats and trends to try and get as factors converging to get that bet home.

Nothing like scoring a good win and a good pash in the same night.

Im off the market for the time being lads with a lass that took me to the footy last sat night.

The lions got home. She wanted me to stay the night and no prizes for what took place after the final siren.

The urn was well and truly raised.
 

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EDFL follower said:
I dont trade either.
And if u love the exotics that’s great and u seem to have a good system for them which is great. The only problem with that is that you can never win any real money betting on exotics. I don’t do exotics but I’m sure that they would cap your bet size to prevent you from winning too much. You can bet as much as you want on Betfair. Already well over a million dollars matched on tomorrow’s test and will probably end up over 100 million so if u can find an edge in the match odds market you can make serious money!
Click to expand...

Currently I can't even get set for $20 if I want to back either team in the Dogs-Adelaide game.

Your call about bookies never trading above BF prices is also totally wrong - someone pointed out even just last night that the TAB were $6 Essendon in play when Betfair was $5.50.
 
Austoraisetheurn said:
That is if you take the prices at the off. Id at least wait for the toss and then use stats and trends to try and get as factors converging to get that bet home.

Nothing like scoring a good win and a good pash in the same night.

Im off the market for the time being lads with a lass that took me to the footy last sat night.

The lions got home. She wanted me to stay the night and no prizes for what took place after the final siren.

The urn was well and truly raised.
Click to expand...
this is the saddest news i have ever heard
 
iluvparis said:
Currently I can't even get set for $20 if I want to back either team in the Dogs-Adelaide game.

Your call about bookies never trading above BF prices is also totally wrong - someone pointed out even just last night that the TAB were $6 Essendon in play when Betfair was $5.50.
Click to expand...
I was referring to before an event starts. If it happens in play often which I highly doubt then you can make yourself some easy money!
 
My poor record in the dismissal market continues. Think it is time to all but write off that market. My records show it is by far my worst performing market.

Contrastingly, 6s and 4s under/over for individual players is my best performing.
 
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