Analysis 2020 Onwards - Where to from here?

[jathanas]

We won’t get a fresh start until Eddie goes.

We are probably 5 years off and a few consecutive bottom 4 finishes until we get some momentum behind that.

Until then it’s just stop gaps.

That's a very sobering outlook but a likely scenario if the powers that be remain as they are and continue to live in denial.

The core of our list is good enough that we don't need to bottom out.

 

[stormskye]

We won’t get a fresh start until Eddie goes.

We are probably 5 years off and a few consecutive bottom 4 finishes until we get some momentum behind that.

Until then it’s just stop gaps.

this is the problem, we are still looking at 2018, it was an outlier, much like Dogs of 2016, but Bucks won’t make changes or accept we are far off because he wants to coach, and needs t scrape into finals playing dead wood. 10 years nxt year for no success. Name a coach that gets that long? Especially one that inherited a Literal flag list....

Shaw has dropped all his dead wood last wkend and accepts where north are at. We need to do the same.

let’s be clear, the Dayne Beams trade has set us back so much, and is just typical of our trade and drafting history, Wells anyone?

Out: recruiters- we continue drafting the same low skill, slow plodders. Look at the people rich have found, we never find the same. We have no pace, no crummers, no KPF. All low skill slow who can’t kick 30m.

Pendles, Howe, sidey: 2-3 years left, Who’s replacing them? We won’t win a flag in the next 2 years, can we maybe squeeze 3 years out of them? Start changes now so they are there for 2022 and a reinvigorated list to end their careers.

changes: delist/trade(For nothing)
Brown (vfl player), Thomas, Phillips, wills, reid, Varcoe, Dunn, Cox, sharenberg, broomhead, Greenwood, will be more.

Magden needs to stay for depth, hes serviceable and Certaintly not our issue.

Play this year and make decisions on NOW: applebee, Langdon.

Play: Murphy, Rantall, Bianco rest of year.

Now, players that need new positions?

sidey: plays forward to prolong his body

Hoskin elliot? Can he play wing? Merge into a defender? I think he has a skill set still, an we need to be bold with him.

Cameron: Can he play defence? Does he have the skill set? He’s not a KPF, maybe we can turn him to defence In off season? Pull a jones from Carlton.He stays for Ruckdepth anyways.


We have to finish low this year and next, get picks, cement out list so the bottom 8 players of 22 are not passsengers. Week in week out our top players give their all, and the bottom 8 passengers make it impossible. We need KPF, skilled inside mid, and SPEED.

with reef and daicos, we can trade futures.

Anyone looking at teams ability to kick accurately and our inability to score at all, can see our setup is laughable.

And for the love of god, stop HANDBALLING

 

[Roverjg]

If we could appoint Longmuir now, would you take him? I would have him over Clarko but that's a personal view. I can see why Clarko would appeal.

I would be happy for Longmuir as coach for a multitude of reasons. He has done a long apprenticeship, as has Caracella. WCE raved about him as an Assistant coach. Kennedy and Darling have openly stated Longmuir greatly assisted in them being the players they are today. At the Pies he was credited with creating their cohesive backline. Players have stated he is a great communicator and he is excellent at developing players.

The are all great assets but to me the icing on the cake is he is not a past player.

My biggest issue with the appointment of Bucks is that he had never been anywhere but the Pies. When he retired he spent one year coaching the Victorian U16 development squad for 8 weeks. He brought in Harv's who many have described as similar to Bucks in his thinking.

Our last two premiership coaches were non-Collingwood people as will our next.

I do not think Mitchell has had enough exposure to be coach.

 

[jathanas]

Out: recruiters- we continue drafting the same low skill, slow plodders. Look at the people rich have found, we never find the same. We have no pace, no crummers, no KPF. All low skill slow who can’t kick 30m.

We need to improve on the recruiting front but let's be fair we have brought in good young talent e.g. Stevo as well as handy types like Checkers.

Wells proved to be a dud deal for us (great guy and sublime skills when ON) and Mayne could be judged as 50/50 at best.

I agree that Brown (vfl player), Thomas, Phillips, wills, reid, Varcoe, Dunn, Cox, sharenberg, broomhead, Greenwood all need to be reviewed.

I think the Beams deal is what has really hurt us going forward and from what I understand the blame for that was not solely on the recruiters.

 

[barrackers]

Agree - and having spent sometime contrasting our 2018 performances to 2020, I’ve come to the conclusion that the GF result was incorrecty assessed.
The coaching group probably concluded that the game plan was too taxing, causing an eventual fade out that cost us the game.
When it fact, had there not been a poor umpiring decision, we would have won the flag and the game plan vindicated.

While it’s clear that in 2020 game plan flexibility to play fast and slow is needed, as Geel have proven in wins over fast teams like BNE, Saints and PA, this has been a pre-season modification, while retaining the basics.

That is exactly what we needed to do post 2018 - maintain the fast game and develop the slow game as Plan B, rather than make the slow game Plan A.

We also incorrectly assessed where our list was at thinking we were just a midfielder away. Hence recruiting Beams.

While the tigs hand has somewhat been forced due a tight cap and minimal injuries meaning less opportunities they've moved on a lot of their middle core role players. Langdon had a sensational 2018 final series as a stopgap chb, however he was never a chb long term and should have encouraged to take the Sydney offer. Similarly Wills and GC last year. Not sure whether the interest was there, but we also should have looked to trade the likes of Thomas after a quiet 2019 while he still had value.

 

[stormskye]

We need to improve on the recruiting front but let's be fair we have brought in good young talent e.g. Stevo as well as handy types like Checkers.

Wells proved to be a dud deal for us (great guy and sublime skills when ON) and Mayne could be judged as 50/50 at best.

I agree that Brown (vfl player), Thomas, Phillips, wills, reid, Varcoe, Dunn, Cox, sharenberg, broomhead, Greenwood all need to be reviewed.

I think the Beams deal is what has really hurt us going forward and from what I understand the blame for that was not solely on the recruiters.

checkers was a good find yes I agree but we’ve just, stagnated. Need changes at the recruiting lvl. Beams, Jesus...

 

[Roverjg]

Where to form here?? More of the same I'm afraid. The Great Dictator wont fall on his sword, and despite what he has said publicly, he will never sack Buckley.

We are stuck with the current situation until someone decides to challenge Eddie and we can actually vote him out. Until then, we will wallow in mediocrity, trying to convince ourselves we are a power club.

The Hawks have won 9 premierships in the past 36 years (Premiership every 4 years - not counting Runners-up), but a lot of posters on here do not like them because they appear ruthless. Howevr, they are just prepared to make the tough decisions.

Yet we appear happy with our 2 premierships in 62 years. Our current glory period are the 5 GF's we played from 1977 to 1981.

Ed counter's any argument about Collingwood's mediocrity on-field with we are the largest club and richest club in the AFL. Neither are true. Sounds like Donald trump that if one peddles crap long along, enough people will believe it.

 

[AndrewShawble]

Some aggression at the trade table wouldn’t hurt.

Tarrant, Shaw, Beams (when he left and not by choice), Wellingham, Dawes

All traded out and yielded good longer term players or a good pick in that draft.

 

[Roverjg]

checkers was a good find yes I agree but we’ve just, stagnated. Need changes at the recruiting lvl. Beams, Jesus...

Unfortunately Checkers is being used as our KPF and he is not a KPF. He realistically should be our 3rd tall. I think his poor season which is reflective of our forward line is due to the poor game plan and ball movement.

 

[AndrewShawble]

Unfortunately Checkers is being used as our KPF and he is not a KPF. He realistically should be our 3rd tall. I think his poor season which is reflective of our forward line is due to the poor game plan and ball movement.

Yep, can you imagine his as the 3rd tall? He’d be a nightmare matchup for other clubs.

He’s asked to play about his height and weight every single week.

 

[ExcitementMachine]

Tragic is that we had a great list projecting upwards in 2015 IMO but poor trades and list management since will see us decline over the next few years and another mini rebuild. Maynard Moore and Degoey was a HUGE coup that you can build premierships around that but it will be a few years you would think from here when we challenge and we really need the kids from recent drafts to come on. Stephenson has been horrid this season and is a big concern. The Beams trade speaks for itself. Please can we find the next Ben/Max King? Lets take advantage of Reef and Nick Daicos in upcoming drafts and get two first rounders in our hand.

Thankfully the kids of future generations might loathe Richmond - we have been up for a long time and have threatened dynasties in 2010/11 whilst Essendon/Richmond/Cartlon have been complete basket cases for the majority of that time. Eddie wants every club to be a rival. Everyone's 'up' for us. Every week we hear the opposition pressure ratings are 'off the charts'. This is the very obvious reason why we have had a horrid run of injuries year in year out IMO. Thankfully over the next few years while we rebuild we might get a better run with injury.

 

[stormskye]

Unfortunately Checkers is being used as our KPF and he is not a KPF. He realistically should be our 3rd tall. I think his poor season which is reflective of our forward line is due to the poor game plan and ball movement.

He’s been down, but I don’t blame him. Our system is beyond flawed. He’s also still highest goal kicker despite playing out of position.

 

[jathanas]

Unfortunately Checkers is being used as our KPF and he is not a KPF. He realistically should be our 3rd tall. I think his poor season which is reflective of our forward line is due to the poor game plan and ball movement.

Agreed, we're throwing him under a bus.

Checkers would be too nice to ever admit this as he is grateful just to have the opportunity to play AFL. Love him, I wish the club could bottle his gratitude and attitude.

 

[barrackers]

Going forward we need to use 2020 as a chance to get further games into youth, trial new positions and give opportunities to Broomhead, Cox, Appleby and Scharenberg to see if they can earn another contract.

Tyler Brown, Rantall, Keane, Murphy and Lynch need to be given a run of games. Perhaps Tohill and Wilson on a wing too. Kelly says he’s an outside chance for a couple of games late,

I’d give Maynard, Noble, Crisp and Quaynor more midfield minutes. Obviously not at the same time. To offset this I’d play Phillips at halfback. Elliott I’d also persist with inside the centre square. Moore is sensational at chb, however we’re simply not scoring enough goals, give him a few games forward.

Madgen isn’t going to be a star, but he’s building confidence with increased games. Give him the rest of 2020 in the seniors and find out what his best footy looks like.

It’s clear we don’t see Scharenberg in our AFL backline, so give him a chance forward. Ditto Appleby who’s already been recast in the VFL.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

We need to improve on the recruiting front but let's be fair we have brought in good young talent e.g. Stevo as well as handy types like Checkers.

Wells proved to be a dud deal for us (great guy and sublime skills when ON) and Mayne could be judged as 50/50 at best.

I agree that Brown (vfl player), Thomas, Phillips, wills, reid, Varcoe, Dunn, Cox, sharenberg, broomhead, Greenwood all need to be reviewed.

I think the Beams deal is what has really hurt us going forward and from what I understand the blame for that was not solely on the recruiters.

Its actually a pretty simple equation.

Reid Broomhead Greenwod Dunn Varcoe Mayne and Beams are no-brainers . Thats seven delistings/retirements without even trying. Most of them shouldnt have even been on our list this year.

You can easily get another two or three exits from Thomas Wills Cox Scharenberg.....possibly some of them might even have a bit of trade value.

Bang... thats ten outs easily done and it wouldnt even scratch the surface.

We need to keep Stephenson DeGoey and Sier. That in itself is interesting given their off field and personal issues they seem to carry with them .

Moore has to be re-signed and we need to commit to getting games into Murphy Ruscoe Rantall Noble Appleby Bianco Kelly Atu Keane Quaynor and T Brown for the future. Personally I'd persist with Cal Brown.

The bigger problem will be replacing ten outs n a single offseason with no under 18's or VFL to assess prospects. That means getting players we need (especially talls)_ will be harder than its ever been.

 

[jathanas]

100%. We need to coach the rest of the year with eyes towards 2021.

Going forward we need to use 2020 as a chance to get further games into youth, trial new positions and give opportunities to Broomhead, Cox, Appleby and Scharenberg to see if can earn another contract.

Tyler Brown, Rantall, Keane and Lynch need to be given a run of games. Perhaps Tohill and Wilson on a wing too.

I’d give Maynard, Noble, Crisp and Quaynor more midfield minutes. Obviously not at the same time. To offset this I’d play Phillips at halfback. Elliott I’d also persist with inside the centre square. Moore is sensational at chb, however we’re simply not scoring enough goals, give him a few games forward.

It’s clear we don’t see Scharenberg in our AFL backline, so give him a chance forward. Ditto Appleby who’s already been recast in the VFL.

 

[Roverjg]

I agree with the kpf needs, but I feel that the skill sets we have targeted over many years have created a list that is devoid of flare and creativity. Maybe it’s a product of the coaching brand which prefers grunt and discipline? Maybe that’s the only choice?
We have not had an X factor indigenous type since Leon (Let’s exclude Wells, and I don’t regard Varcoe in that space).
It’s why I’d keep Stephenson in The side regardless of form as the player closest to this skill set. Elliott And Treloar have both lost their X factor due to injuries. WHE lost some zip.
Our stock types have no flare at all (Brown, Mayne, Thomas, Phillips, Varcoe, etc) and I think is why we struggle to generate scores and have created such a defensive and effort based game plan. Also why DeGoey is worth more to Collingwood than almost any other team.
Would you say we have any ‘creative’ defenders ? Maynard and Noble may be the closest. Mids - only Side, Pendles, maybe Daicos, none of whom have Tim Kelly/ Brad Hill style leg speed. It’s all one pace endurance types with limited skill.
So I’d like to see this gap addressed in our recruiting strategy along with the obvious kpf problem, because I also believe game plan reflects the strengths of the talent you have available.

We do have a lot of the same of players. If we had a decent game plan which fitted to our players capabilities I don't think the types of players would matter. However we are trying to play a keep possession game plan which requires good kicking skills. None of the players you mentioned above have that.

In 2002, we had a lot of players with average disposal skills such as Freeborn, Holland, Betheras, McKee, Licuria, Cloke, Presti and McGough. However, we had a game plan that was based on playing a role. It took us to within a kick of a premiership, ala 2018 when our game plan was changed. Now we have reverted back to the 2017 game plan.

So the question is... Is the issue our players or the game plan?

 

[TradeDraft]

It probably won’t be that early, but we need Reef McIness to be our second pick at the table, with our first being an athletic key tall, or a burst midfielder. Keep in mind our first next year is 99% likely to go on an average-paced mid (albeit with exceptional skills).

Then do we Trade Up IF Possible in the Draft?

 

[jathanas]

Its actually a pretty simple equation.

....

The bigger problem will be replacing ten outs n a single offseason with no under 18's or VFL to assess prospects. That means getting players we need (especially talls)_ will be harder than its ever been.

Great post Timmy. It highlights how big the recruiting challenge will be for the club.

How do we address the many gaps in the list that you have identified? We want the talent that is brought in to have legitimate upside and for next year we have to make those decisions on very little information compared to years of the past.

 

[Harry O]

John Noble’s dad is one of the better coaching options out there ala Chris Fagan. But we can’t really have him as coach with his son in team

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Then do we Trade Up IF Possible in the Draft?

Not sure how we can trade up in the draft with the long list of dead wood we need to delist first. Unless we want to et rid of one our few decent players..........

We might have to just grab that tall e need at the trade table or pick him up later in the draft. Or maybe we try Moore as a forward. And pin our hopes on Kelly.

 

[Peter Sidorkiewicz]

Some aggression at the trade table wouldn’t hurt.

Tarrant, Shaw, Beams (when he left and not by choice), Wellingham, Dawes

All traded out and yielded good longer term players or a good pick in that draft.

No. That's the last thing we need. We are poor traders.

Its time to address our list deficiencies through the draft not at the trade table.

 

[Black_White]

We missed the boat.
Clarkson is yesterday’s man.
Ratten was the one.

 

[Matt_352]

Interested to hear people's thoughts on Blake Caracella as an option for head coach?

I think we let a golden option slip when we extended Bucks instead of picking up Ratten.

 

[barrackers]

Reid Broomhead Greenwod Dunn Varcoe Mayne and Beams are no-brainers . Thats seven delistings/retirements without even trying. Most of them shouldnt have even been on our list this year.

I wouldn’t have Greenwood as a certainty. He was our best small defender before his knee and if he can recapture that form it gives us flexibility to play Crisp or Maynard further afield.

The reduced game length appears to have hurt endurance runners like Mayne and Phillips. With a host of others to retire/delist is the sixth or seventh player selected going to give us more? Perhaps spread it out across a couple of seasons. Mayne always gives his all and worst case he’d be terrific teaching our youth what’s required in the VFL.