Strategy Aggressive reset

[the big lebowski]

Dude - Ferbs comes from the blind optimism camp - that no North player could ever lose form; that BBB could never only average 1 goal a game in a season; that other teams can never improve more than us....

And then invariably when we are 3/4's of the way through a season the standard excuse gets trotted out like clockwork ...we are really a top 6 team but we are just having bad luck this season....

I was once like that.

I see the truth now. Ignorance was bliss.

 

[Tas]

Now ... I know it's not the same thing as what you were thinking of but we have two first round picks this year. In 2018 we drafted Thomas, Scott and Taylor.

I believe he meant 3 midfielders in addition to what we have.

I think we need two, I may be naive, but I think we will get Kelly as a free agent at the end of next year so that fills one vacancy, he will only be 26 in 2021 so I think he will have 5-6 years after 2021 and he should be able to carry a significant load as soon as we get him. Even though Kelly is a shadow of the player he was last time we went after him, I think he still has a lot of elite attributes and I am a lot happier to just need to part with cash to get him instead of draft picks as well.

We may already have the equivalent of three first round midfield talents right there. We can still achieve what you were after, to a degree, if you give the license that Scott are Taylor are potential first round picks that we got to the club any way we could. Plus two first round picks this year and we potentially get five of those type of players.

I still have high expectation of Thomas, Scott, Taylor and W.Walker but to get everyone we have already to be an elite midfielder would require lotto-like luck.

Each team has around 10 core midfielders, some play in the guts, wings, forward flanks and the others on the pine. I guarantee you at least half of the prospects we have now will at best hold the bottom half of that group of ten if the are still at the club in 3-5 years time.

If you are building for future success you have to factor in the failure rate and you want to push talented players who aren't quite good enough into lesser but important roles for success.

Pies have Pendlebury, Sidebottom, Beams, DeGoey, Stephenson, Adams, etc and their midfield isn't good enough. Geelong had Dangerfield, Ablett, Selwood, Kelly, Duncan, Guthrie, etc and they weren't good enough.

West Coast eagles won the flag in 2006 with a potato like Lynch at full forward because they had Judd, Cousins, Kerr, Fletcher, Embley, etc.

Maybe we got Taylor anyway, with an earlier pick (tho I doubt it) but we probably wouldn't have. So we may have missed him. For Bailey Smith ... Probably worth missing him, but you are the one who got thinking this way after the Saints game when you put up a picture of draft year Nat Fyfe when we were all raving at how good Taylor was.

Ziebell looks like a mini Carey early in his career, it didn't quite pan out as fans hoped. Not everyone makes it to the level we hope they will. They may just end up really good 20-30 goal half forwards who can be thrown into the middle/wings. It still makes them valuable, but you still need that core elite midfield to have a hope. If all we have is a prayer and it doesn't work out we will be back here in another decade going for third time lucky.

Taylor won us that game I reckon. There were a bunch of crucial contests he halved or won that made the difference around either side of half time. It wasn't just his commitment and determination, it was his footy smarts. His ability to read the game, understand the importance of that contest and commit wholeheartedly to it - that was the difference between us IMO.

Kieran Harper kicked 25.18 and 9 goal assists in his second year with us in a similar role, it doesn't always work out.

The point I am making is simply this:

We may not have been that much better off if we got one gun before TT and then for whatever reason missed Taylor. You can't assume he would still be there if the draft is that radically different.

Any change to the draft could have adjusted the order players went, most clubs had ample opportunity to take him later in the second round or third round before us, he was obviously lower on their radar than where we valued him. Taking player X or Y may have pushed him up the order somewhat, it may not have. Who knows how long he would have remained available had we not taken him where we did.

The point is we got really poor value out of our draft pick, because we thought of it as a free hit, because that is what the club called it. Whether we try and push it up before an expected bid on Thomas or we trade it down so we have a larger pool of 2nd/3rd round picks to choose from, both would have been a lot better than what we ended up doing. We know this because they sacked the people who made that decision.

 

[ChoppyGun]

I was once like that.

I see the truth now. Ignorance was bliss.

Ferball is as measured as anyone on here. No point being miserable.

We have issues to address. No doubt. Some of us saying for years to avoid, but it is what it is now.

Plenty of great signs last weekend and hopefully more against the Pies.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Ferball is as measured as anyone on here.

You have (supposedly) been here for a grand total of 32 days and have the entire forum analysed & categorized?

 

[koshari]

You have (supposedly) been here for a grand total of 32 days and have the entire forum analysed & categorized?

Hes worked you out.

 

[LB2Snake]

I like ferball , for what it’s worth.

But I also quite enjoy Snake_Baker and his analysis on the game.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Hes worked you out.

.............and apparently everybody else that posts here.

alt. account swine.

 

[Snake_Baker]

I like ferball , for what it’s worth.

But I also quite enjoy Snake_Baker and his analysis on the game.

ferball is harmless..........and I'm........apparently............a (disturbed) genius.

Sorry, but it's not my call, that's what all the tests reckon.

 

[Horace]

Probably the same thing as last year. A finish between 7th and 12th

Really?

So just assuming we had managed to get 4 players we went hard for in recent trading periods, and, also assuming we had the same injury list as we did last week, you don't think this team might have got across the line last week and in some games in previous weeks?

Backs: McKay Walker Vickers-Willis
Half Backs: Atley Durdin McDonald
Centres: Kelly Martin Gaff
Half Forwards: Higgins Larkey Anderson
Forwards: Mahony Xerri Zurharr
Rucks: Goldstein Davies-Uniake
Rover: Simpkin

I/C: Williams Dumont Scott Murphy

Unavailable through injury: De Goey, Tarrant, Cunnington, Ziebell, Brown, Garner, Jacobs and 65 others.

That team would have surely managed one more goal and knocked over Brisbane and in addition won several more games this year to be right in the hunt.

Imagine last year if those same four players, Kelly, Martin, Gaff and De Goey had have been playing for us.

As to injuries and their impact. Our best player, BennyC has been absent for basically 10 of the 12 games this year. In the Age a few weeks back they published some statistics, which showed that Cunnington's absence on our win/loss ratio is greater than that of any other player's impact on any club in the AFL.

The fact is that you never replace your best player with your second best player when the number 1 goes down. You replace him with someone who arguably is outside your best 22. That is a huge impact on any team.

 

[Psicosis]

Really?

So just assuming we had managed to get 4 players we went hard for in recent trading periods, and, also assuming we had the same injury list as we did last week, you don't think this team might have got across the line last week and in some games in previous weeks?

Backs: McKay Walker Vickers-Willis
Half Backs: Atley Durdin McDonald
Centres: Kelly Martin Gaff
Half Forwards: Higgins Larkey Anderson
Forwards: Mahony Xerri Zurharr
Rucks: Goldstein Davies-Uniake
Rover: Simpkin

I/C: Williams Dumont Scott Murphy

Unavailable through injury: De Goey, Tarrant, Cunnington, Ziebell, Brown, Garner, Jacobs and 65 others.

That team would have surely managed one more goal and knocked over Brisbane and in addition won several more games this year to be right in the hunt.

Imagine last year if those same four players, Kelly, Martin, Gaff and De Goey had have been playing for us.

As to injuries and their impact. Our best player, BennyC has been absent for basically 10 of the 12 games this year. In the Age a few weeks back they published some statistics, which showed that Cunnington's absence on our win/loss ratio is greater than that of any other player's impact on any club in the AFL.

The fact is that you never replace your best player with your second best player when the number 1 goes down. You replace him with someone who arguably is outside your best 22. That is a huge impact on any team.

Just don't think this "What if?" scenario is really relevant Horace. We didn't get Kelly, Gaff, Martin &/or JDG. You add 4 A graders to any side in the comp and you're going to improve, but it's an unrealistic hypothetical.

This kind of hypothesizing fuels the nuffy view on this board that we are closer then we actually are. In 2020 we sit 17th, sure we have had injuries (as have most clubs), but we are still way off & should not be looking at short-cuts this time as it does not work.

 

[the big lebowski]

Really?

So just assuming we had managed to get 4 players we went hard for in recent trading periods, and, also assuming we had the same injury list as we did last week, you don't think this team might have got across the line last week and in some games in previous weeks?

Backs: McKay Walker Vickers-Willis
Half Backs: Atley Durdin McDonald
Centres: Kelly Martin Gaff
Half Forwards: Higgins Larkey Anderson
Forwards: Mahony Xerri Zurharr
Rucks: Goldstein Davies-Uniake
Rover: Simpkin

I/C: Williams Dumont Scott Murphy

Unavailable through injury: De Goey, Tarrant, Cunnington, Ziebell, Brown, Garner, Jacobs and 65 others.

That team would have surely managed one more goal and knocked over Brisbane and in addition won several more games this year to be right in the hunt.

Imagine last year if those same four players, Kelly, Martin, Gaff and De Goey had have been playing for us.

As to injuries and their impact. Our best player, BennyC has been absent for basically 10 of the 12 games this year. In the Age a few weeks back they published some statistics, which showed that Cunnington's absence on our win/loss ratio is greater than that of any other player's impact on any club in the AFL.

The fact is that you never replace your best player with your second best player when the number 1 goes down. You replace him with someone who arguably is outside your best 22. That is a huge impact on any team.

My comment was on the excuse of injury.

Discussing where we would finish on the ladder based all the players that have rejected north over the years is as useful as **** on a bull. Aside from the fact that not all of them would be in the same team, they all rejected our club. Might as wel add Heeney, Papley, Howard, etc as well.

 

[Passmore]

Really?

So just assuming we had managed to get 4 players we went hard for in recent trading periods, and, also assuming we had the same injury list as we did last week, you don't think this team might have got across the line last week and in some games in previous weeks?

Backs: McKay Walker Vickers-Willis
Half Backs: Atley Durdin McDonald
Centres: Kelly Martin Gaff
Half Forwards: Higgins Larkey Anderson
Forwards: Mahony Xerri Zurharr
Rucks: Goldstein Davies-Uniake
Rover: Simpkin

I/C: Williams Dumont Scott Murphy

Unavailable through injury: De Goey, Tarrant, Cunnington, Ziebell, Brown, Garner, Jacobs and 65 others.

That team would have surely managed one more goal and knocked over Brisbane and in addition won several more games this year to be right in the hunt.

Imagine last year if those same four players, Kelly, Martin, Gaff and De Goey had have been playing for us.

As to injuries and their impact. Our best player, BennyC has been absent for basically 10 of the 12 games this year. In the Age a few weeks back they published some statistics, which showed that Cunnington's absence on our win/loss ratio is greater than that of any other player's impact on any club in the AFL.

The fact is that you never replace your best player with your second best player when the number 1 goes down. You replace him with someone who arguably is outside your best 22. That is a huge impact on any team.

If we get Kelly and Martin, you can scratch Gaff, De Goey and Davies-Unaicke from the team.

 

[Horace]

Just don't think this "What if?" scenario is really relevant Horace. We didn't get Kelly, Gaff, Martin &/or JDG. You add 4 A graders to any side in the comp and you're going to improve, but it's an unrealistic hypothetical.

This kind of hypothesizing fuels the nuffy view on this board that we are closer then we actually are. In 2020 we sit 17th, sure we have had injuries (as have most clubs), but we are still way off & should not be looking at short-cuts this time as it does not work.

My original post in this recent thread bump, was to do with "the wisdom of hindsight". In it I said, " Who knows what might have happened if our big trade plays had have come off, not to mention, this year, had Cunnington and others not got injured."

It is so easy to be wise after the event. At the time we went hard in those trade periods when those potential trades were in play. Just about all of us were salivating at the prospect of getting one or more of those players. This board nearly imploded especially when Gaff turned us down.

Now posters are saying we should never have gone down that track and instead gone to the draft.

Well we ended up mainly going to the draft and although some of the the boys we have picked up in the last two to three years are showing promise, it is too early to judge them and even more importantly, expect them to be winning games of football for us. That's where our injuries (and form in the case of Brown) play such a major role. A lesser injury list; and ours last week was the worst if I'm not mistaken; means there are more senior players out on the ground to help the young boys develop and play better football.

 

[the big lebowski]

My original post in this recent thread bump, was to do with "the wisdom of hindsight". In it I said, " Who knows what might have happened if our big trade plays had have come off, not to mention, this year, had Cunnington and others not got injured."

It is so easy to be wise after the event. At the time we went hard in those trade periods when those potential trades were in play. Just about all of us were salivating at the prospect of getting one or more of those players. This board nearly imploded especially when Gaff turned us down.

Now posters are saying we should never have gone down that track and instead gone to the draft.

But we didn’t do either. We neither landed big name players nor did we hit the draft hard. After we missed on kelly and Martin, we had the perfect chance to start a draft focused rebuild. We didn’t. In fact we gave away a high end draft pick for 2 guys that have been dropped.

Middling draft picks, middling recruits, middling performance.

 

[Horace]

But we didn’t do either. We neither landed big name players nor did we hit the draft hard. After we missed on kelly and Martin, we had the perfect chance to start a draft focused rebuild. We didn’t. In fact we gave away a high end draft pick for 2 guys that have been dropped.

Middling draft picks, middling recruits, middling performance.

Well there you go again. Wise in hindsight. Proved my point perfectly. Any chance you might show some foresight and give us the winning tattslotto numbers tomorrow night?

 

[the big lebowski]

Well there you go again. Wise in hindsight. Proved my point perfectly. Any chance you might show some foresight and give us the winning tattslotto numbers tomorrow night?

Well for starters, no, I said in 2018 that we were shooting ourselves in the foot re draft position in a super draft. See my posts ( and others) after we beat the swans in the Mason Wood game.

But that’s irrelevant anyway. I’m not sure I understand your argument. You seem to place no weight on results or outcomes but heaps on hypotheticals.

They fact is no decent players want to come to north.

The fact is during our “rebuild” we have had 1 top 5 pick.

The fact is we currently sit second last on the ladder, 4 years into our rebuild.

The fact is we rely on players at, near or over 30.

The fact is that we just fired a coach that said we need a rebuild.

The fact is that our current coach seemed to say the same 2 weeks ago, now isn’t so sure.

But you and others seem to take personal offence when we criticise the club for the way the last 3 years (and probably the previous 10 too) have been handled. You seem to want to only look at hypothetical, best case scenarios rather than the cold hard depressing facts in front of you.

 

[shintemaster]

I like ferball , for what it’s worth.

But I also quite enjoy Snake_Baker and his analysis on the game.

******* nepoptism though based on your username!

 

[Horace]

Well for starters, no, I said in 2018 that we were shooting ourselves in the foot re draft position in a super draft. See my posts ( and others) after we beat the swans in the Mason Wood game.

But that’s irrelevant anyway. I’m not sure I understand your argument. You seem to place no weight on results or outcomes but heaps on hypotheticals.

They fact is no decent players want to come to north.

The fact is during our “rebuild” we have had 1 top 5 pick.

The fact is we currently sit second last on the ladder, 4 years into our rebuild.

The fact is we rely on players at, near or over 30.

The fact is that we just fired a coach that said we need a rebuild.

The fact is that our current coach seemed to say the same 2 weeks ago, now isn’t so sure.

But you and others seem to take personal offence when we criticise the club for the way the last 3 years (and probably the previous 10 too) have been handled. You seem to want to only look at hypothetical, best case scenarios rather than the cold hard depressing facts in front of you.

Try hindsight.

 

[the big lebowski]

Try hindsight.

So you’re saying no one could have predicted the s**t position we’d be in without the fullness of time revealing it?

 

[Snake_Baker]

tbl, many of your "facts" appear to be foreign or loaded to me mate.

hey fact is no decent players want to come to north.

1) "Decent" is a relative concept.
2) "Decent players" don't go to other clubs either. In fact the current reigning premiers have managed to attract a grand total of 1.

The fact is during our “rebuild” we have had 1 top 5 pick.

How many did West Coast have in their 2016 premiership team?

The fact is we currently sit second last on the ladder, 4 years into our rebuild.

3.5 years and this is not unusual. Injury has also had a major impact on this season, as has experimentation.

The fact is we rely on players at, near or over 30.

We went within a kick of beating the 2nd place side with 2 x 32 year old players and 0 x 28-31 year old players.

The fact is that we just fired a coach that said we need a rebuild.

Which, apparently, is one of the reasons he was sacked.

The fact is that our current coach seemed to say the same 2 weeks ago, now isn’t so sure.

"Fact" and "seemed to say" do not belong in the same sentence.

Sorry mate, I like you & I rate you, but you are being irrationally morose about this.

 

[Tas]

Well there you go again. Wise in hindsight. Proved my point perfectly. Any chance you might show some foresight and give us the winning tattslotto numbers tomorrow night?

The only way to judge recruitment and development is with the benefit of hindsight, it is how clubs evaluate performance and we can't ignore the fact we sacked a lot of people who were involved in the recruitment process.

I think our club developed a neurosis about not landing any big fish, even though we got close a number of times, so we got to the point Polec was considered a win. The landscape from when we first chased players was very different to what it was by the time we got Polec.

To some extent, I think the club has been naive and has been prone to being seduced by what they want to hear rather than have a good understand of where we are at and what needs to be done. We were seduced by Laidley's powerpoint presentation, prospective coaches were telling us we needed to rebuild and Scott pitch was what they wanted to hear so much they ended the process there, we left two time premiership coach Hardwick in the lobby without even give him an interview. After 9 years of mediocrity, Brad goes to the board and says we need a complete rebuild, they almost sacked him on the spot. Now we have Shaw, because he got some wins during the honeymoon period, our "process" was to offer 3 high profile coaches with links to our club who were already contracted the job, we ended up giving Shaw the job without interviewing anyone else.

The reality is our club hasn't been prepared to do the hard work or what is required since back in the 80s when the club had a youth development program when the zones finally ended.

My concern is less about who we hire and how good or bad they are at their job, because that can be addressed. If our problem is the board and their inability to do their football related role well then we are in strife if the decision makers are making bad decisions.

Ultimately, we keep needing these reviews of our failures due to a failure of leadership to put us on the right path. If we continue as a failure at this level, we will just continue to make bad decisions.

 

[the big lebowski]

tbl, many of your "facts" appear to be foreign or loaded to me mate.



1) "Decent" is a relative concept.
2) "Decent players" don't go to other clubs either. In fact the current reigning premiers have managed to attract a grand total of 1.



How many did West Coast have in their 2016 premiership team?




3.5 years and this is not unusual. Injury has also had a major impact on this season, as has experimentation.



We went within a kick of beating the 2nd place side with 2 x 32 year old players and 0 x 28-31 year old players.



Which, apparently, is one of the reasons he was sacked.



"Fact" and "seemed to say" do not belong in the same sentence.

Sorry mate, I like you & I rate you, but you are being irrationally morose about this.

Thank you! I like and rate myself as well.

I don’t understand how you are so (seemingly) cynical with everything else (society, virtue signaling, the huddle, everything the club does other than list management etc) but so blindly optimistic about the state of our 2nd last team that hasn’t played finals since 2016.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Thank you! I like and rate myself as well.

I don’t understand how you are so (seemingly) cynical with everything else (society, virtue signaling, the huddle, everything the club does other than list management etc) but so blindly optimistic about the state of our 2nd last team that hasn’t played finals since 2016.

It probably has something to do with them each being different subjects.

 

[Horace]

So you’re saying no one could have predicted the sh*t position we’d be in without the fullness of time revealing it?

Of course that is what I am saying.

 

[the big lebowski]

Of course that is what I am saying.

Yet I and others around here predicted just this in 2017, 2018 and 2019. And we are just plebs on the interwebz.

The most frustrating part of this is saying at the time that we are doing the wrong thing, fast forwarding 2,3 years into the future, being proved correct, then hearing no one could have predicted that.