Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

[Asapartyhat]

You're going to accuse Richmond of getting an advantage in a year where they won't get a genuine home advantage in any game and will spend almost all of it in a hub away from home. That's a strange obsession.

It is blatantly obvious that Richmond get an advantage
Just unfairness and favourtism makes me a bit annoyed when it is so blatant and unnessary .Theres no obsession there other than in your mind.If any team had that advantage I would be annoyed.

 

[Seeds]

We didn't get 3 genuine home games at our boutique stadium. For me the draw this year is all over the place, other than Brisbane and GC all teams have been disadvantaged compared to a normal season. I wouldn't be complaining either way.

Just funny how even in a season where Richmond has ZERO games with HGA, people still complain we somehow get the easy run.

who said you got an easy run? no one. but stop complaining that you have had the hardest run cos you havnt.

 

[Seeds]

Gotta love the squiggle. As usual it predicts things to stay almost exactly the same as they currently are and posters think its insightful.

 

[Final Siren]

Gotta love the squiggle. As usual it predicts things to stay almost exactly the same as they currently are and posters think its insightful.

Harsh. I also predicted West Coast to finish 9th this year.

 

[TassieEagle]

I think one of the bigger issues with short breaks is injuries, not necessarily the increased risk but the fact a '2 week hammy' might mean a player missing 4 games.

 

[Spanish_Fly]

who said you got an easy run? no one. but stop complaining that you have had the hardest run cos you havnt.

Have a look at the post directly above yours, complaining we get an advantage with the draw. I've never said we had a hard run, only that apart from Gold Coast and Brisbane everyone else has had a tricky draw.

 

[Final Siren]

It's always a bit of a dodgy question, because it will only be games that were very close, and therefore could have been changed by almost anything.

And even then, once you conclude the venue could have made a difference, you have to figure out whether the venue should have been different. And while I can say with confidence that Hawthorn have had a rough fixture, I can't point to an individual game and say THAT ONE is wrong, because it would have been fine if it had been balanced out by other games.

That said, to answer your question, these are the results Squiggle thinks would have gone the other way at a neutral venue:

• R4 GWS def COL by 2 @ Sydney Showgrounds with 4.7pts of HGA
• R8 BRI def MEL by 4 @ Carrara with 4.5pts of HGA (in a Melbourne home game, too, ouch)
• R11 GCS drew ESS @ Carrara with 3.7pts of HGA to the Suns
• R12 BRI def NOR by 1 @ Carrara with 3.4pts of HGA (a Nth Melbourne home game)

Quite a lot came awfully close. The COL v RIC draw had 0.0 HGA, for example, and a couple of Carlton one-pointers had less than half a point of HGA.

Really this kind of analysis should add up the probabilities that HGA could have made a difference in each game to arrive at a season total.

Brisbane now have three wins within the margin of home advantage! Defeated St Kilda by 2 with 4.6pts of HGA. A legit home game this time, though.

 

[Oneiros]

I'm still in awe that West Coast has fallen behind Carlton in the Squiggle.

This is probably just a rough year for it, since the margins are trending a little more to the extremes, so we're seeing a lot of jarring moves by the Squiggle.

 

[Final Siren]

I'm still in awe that West Coast has fallen behind Carlton in the Squiggle.

This is probably just a rough year for it, since the margins are trending a little more to the extremes, so we're seeing a lot of jarring moves by the Squiggle.

That's definitely not helping. Carlton have kept their opponents to 36 and 27 points the last two weeks, which Squiggle really likes.

West Coast is (still) the one that's really out of whack with the punditry, though. Still only ranked 5th most likely for the flag, and 7th overall on current form.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I'm still in awe that West Coast has fallen behind Carlton in the Squiggle.

This is probably just a rough year for it, since the margins are trending a little more to the extremes, so we're seeing a lot of jarring moves by the Squiggle.

Well we should have beaten you if not for the Umpires so, makes sense.

 

[Oneiros]

That's definitely not helping. Carlton have kept their opponents to 36 and 27 points the last two weeks, which Squiggle really likes.

West Coast is (still) the one that's really out of whack with the punditry, though. Still only ranked 5th most likely for the flag, and 7th overall on current form.

I've never seen so many teams restricted to such tiny scores. Some of these scorelines wouldn't be out of place in an rugby game. I think the Eagles are just far more likely to put the cue in the rack than other teams which artificially deflates the results.

Alternatively, we're just not that good and the punditry is wrong :V

Well we should have beaten you if not for the Umpires so, makes sense.

Interesting contention coming from the team that wouldn't have beaten Fremantle without having it hand-delivered to them by the Umpiring fraternity.

 

[the harry]

Can easily mount the case eagles are over performing. Even against the giants we lost a stack of key indicators.

 

[jsdsgn]

Can easily mount the case eagles are over performing. Even against the giants we lost a stack of key indicators.

I cant see a situation or any makeup of the top 8 where the eagles dont make the GF.
As a WCE fan you might over-analyse because we all do, but trust me, as an opposition fan you guys look unbeatable this year IMO.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

I've never seen so many teams restricted to such tiny scores. Some of these scorelines wouldn't be out of place in an rugby game. I think the Eagles are just far more likely to put the cue in the rack than other teams which artificially deflates the results.

Alternatively, we're just not that good and the punditry is wrong :V


Interesting contention coming from the team that wouldn't have beaten Fremantle without having it hand-delivered to them by the Umpiring fraternity.

Please refer to my comments in the applicable thread about purpoted "hand delivery" each decision was correct, placement and person taking the kick arbitrary and irrelevant. Gibbons would have sealed it from 50. Destined to win that game.

 

[Bulldog Joe]

Please refer to my comments in the applicable thread about purpoted "hand delivery" each decision was correct, placement and person taking the kick arbitrary and irrelevant. Gibbons would have sealed it from 50. Destined to win that game.

While the umpires have quietly conceded that the 2 free kicks to Freo, that brought them back from the wing to defensive 50, for push in the back were adjudicated incorrectly.

You may have noticed that the interpretation changed to downfield frees this week.

 

[Niggles]

Just looking at Richmonds run and it looks ridiculously contrived to ensure they have every chance of a top four finish.

- Eagles play in Perth fly from Perth have a four day break between games before playing Richmond first game in new hub in Queensland.
- Fremantle play in Perth fly from Perth have a five day break play Richmond first game in new hub.Richmond have seven day break and no travel
- Geelong play Richmond after five day break.Richmond have nine day break before that game.
How sh*t do Richmond need to be to lose any of those games given the massive advantage handed to them ?
-

Richmond play a high intensity manic pressure type game style and with short breaks between games compact fixtures a higher attrition rate (injurys) means that style of play is the most compramised.
Longer breaks between games then their opponents and a shorter season definetly helps them imo.

It is blatantly obvious that Richmond get an advantage
Just unfairness and favourtism makes me a bit annoyed when it is so blatant and unnessary .Theres no obsession there other than in your mind.If any team had that advantage I would be annoyed.

No, like most of you out West, you like to have a bit of a sook over Richmond in every thread. It's an obsession for you, and your assparty mates. It's a very insecure trait making you look pretty sad. Your team have had 7 or so games with huge HGA. Tiges have had 0. = not even 1. Get it yet?
P.s. What are your thoughts on big Tommy Lynch playing next round? I suppose that = no more AFL this year for you?

 

[winty]

We didn't get 3 genuine home games at our boutique stadium. For me the draw this year is all over the place, other than Brisbane and GC all teams have been disadvantaged compared to a normal season. I wouldn't be complaining either way.

Yeah, but you had 4 of the first 5 games of the season at the 'G, then 6 of the next 8 in Queensland or NSW.

We had 3 at GMHBA Stadium, correct, but also travelled to Sydney in Round 1, and then when Victorian clubs were forced to move out of the state, we went to Sydney again in Round 6, before travelling to Perth, then Brisbane, then Adelaide, and now back to Brisbane.

 

[Wojcinski]

Can't we just have one thread dedicated to analysis and free from trolling and whinging?

 

[Chief]

Can't we just have one thread dedicated to analysis and free from trolling and whinging?

Hit the report button and mods will sort it out.

 

[LittleG]

Hey FS,
The WC vs Bulldogs game has a major difference in days break prior to the game. 5 days for the Eagles and 9 days for the bulldogs. Is the squiggle set up to notice this large disparity in rest time?
Cheers LG

 

[Spanish_Fly]

Yeah, but you had 4 of the first 5 games of the season at the 'G, then 6 of the next 8 in Queensland or NSW.

We had 3 at GMHBA Stadium, correct, but also travelled to Sydney in Round 1, and then when Victorian clubs were forced to move out of the state, we went to Sydney again in Round 6, before travelling to Perth, then Brisbane, then Adelaide, and now back to Brisbane.

As I said before it all works itself out, and apart from GC and Brisbane everyone else has ended up with a pretty crappy draw, hence why I'm not sure why some posters keep carping on about Richmond's draw as if we've been handed some kind of favour.

Geelong had to go to Perth, but had the advantage of 3 genuine home games at KP at the start of the season, swings and roundabouts.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

You would think more days' break gives an on-field advantage, but there isn't good statistical evidence for it.

Here are a couple of good articles by people going hunting for the supposed effect of a shorter break and coming up empty:

https://www.statsinsider.com.au/afl...ter-turnarounds-really-disadvantage-afl-teams

https://www.afl.com.au/news/86913/the-stats-files-will-a-sixday-break-hurt-pies-gws

As the Stats Insider piece mentions, the real story here is the Killer Bye, which honestly seems to be a real thing. Byes are terrible for teams. And not just ones in blue and white hoops.

But an extra one or two days' break doesn't seem to make any detectable difference. At best, there's a particular window where teams might do better if they have exactly 2-3 more days rest than their opponents, but not more and not less. But even then it's pretty suspect.

Therefore I ignore days' break as a factor, even though obviously people often talk about it like it's a proven thing.

The issue with this view is that once you start getting into factors of consistent 4- and 5-day breaks, that's nothing you can analyse with past data.

Anecdotally, with how important high performance strength and conditioning is to teams (taking a large part of football department spend), days break should make a difference. I'd argue that through a mixture of using that spending for recovery and things like management and team changes, a lot of the difference is quelled. Essentially, comparing differences in day breaks statistically if we could control for it would allow for better analysis, but clubs clearly don't prepare the same way with different day breaks - making more changes or over-emphasising recovery in a given week that might harm them in the longer-term. Beyond one-day breaks, If we simply had more total data points for five-day breaks v seven-day breaks (which are rare) I'm convinced we'd see it have a difference as well.

 

[iluvparis]

I've never seen so many teams restricted to such tiny scores. Some of these scorelines wouldn't be out of place in an rugby game. I think the Eagles are just far more likely to put the cue in the rack than other teams which artificially deflates the results.

Supporters of teams who the squiggle doesn't rate make this claim EVERY year (the best year was when it never rated Freo when they finished top). Squiggle is generally proven to be correct - as FS always says - putting your foot down and belting bad teams is a sign you are a good side.

 

[iluvparis]

The issue with this view is that once you start getting into factors of consistent 4- and 5-day breaks, that's nothing you can analyse with past data.

Anecdotally, with how important high performance strength and conditioning is to teams (taking a large part of football department spend), days break should make a difference. I'd argue that through a mixture of using that spending for recovery and things like management and team changes, a lot of the difference is quelled. Essentially, comparing differences in day breaks statistically if we could control for it would allow for better analysis, but clubs clearly don't prepare the same way with different day breaks - making more changes or over-emphasising recovery in a given week that might harm them in the longer-term. Beyond one-day breaks, If we simply had more total data points for five-day breaks v seven-day breaks (which are rare) I'm convinced we'd see it have a difference as well.

That's the beauty of squiggle - anecdotally it makes sense to humans but there is actually nothing in the data to support that anecdote.

 

[iluvparis]

Hey FS,
The WC vs Bulldogs game has a major difference in days break prior to the game. 5 days for the Eagles and 9 days for the bulldogs. Is the squiggle set up to notice this large disparity in rest time?
Cheers LG

FS explained a few pages back while difference in days between games played is actually a bit of a myth and has little empirical support.