Discussion Remaining Fixture

[plugger66]

Great to get the 4 points. 8 wins banked. 10 Has been mooted as the number to make the finals - that would probably rely on %.
Melbourne shaping as a defining game - for us and them.
Lions, Demons, Hawks, Eagles and Giants remain.
Win 3 and we are in.

Does anyone know if there is a bye between Rd.18 and the first week of finals?

9 might be relying on percentage. 10 is the biggest certainty to make finals since black cavier ran around.

 

[One 2 Roo]

9 might be relying on percentage. 10 is the biggest certainty to make finals since black cavier ran around.

Hope you are right mate.

Any idea on the bye after Rd.18? Ive been searching high and low, and can't find confirmation.

 

[plugger66]

Hope you are right mate.

Any idea on the bye after Rd.18? Ive been searching high and low, and can't find confirmation.

No confirmation yet by the afl. I suppose it depends where the finals are and the quarantine stuff. I’d probably hope not as we have one just a couple of weeks early.

 

[plugger66]

Actually just had a look at who plays who for the rest of the year and taking into account I never get 9 winners but I’d suggest if we beat gws and that is our only other win which I doubt as we have the hawks but 9 wins is just about certain to get in. Is there anyway these days that you can do a predictor.

 

[gringo2011]

Actually just had a look at who plays who for the rest of the year and taking into account I never get 9 winners but I’d suggest if we beat gws and that is our only other win which I doubt as we have the hawks but 9 wins is just about certain to get in. Is there anyway these days that you can do a predictor.

Squiggle AFL Ladder Predictor

Squiggle, the home of computer-aided AFL footy tipping, offers a handy ladder predictor tool.

predictor.squiggle.com.au

 

[Diehard Saint]

Gerard Whateley - “St. Kilda strategically played a dab hand, clearly prioritising two matches.“

Obviously taking from that that we realistically expected a loss against the Cats and managed the list accordingly for the Suns and Bombers. Which actually is what a few on here suggested. Playing Ryder, Jones and Ross for that game may still not have given us a win - much better to rest them for games we are most likely to win and get enough of these in the bag for finals.

 

[stfan]

Gerard Whateley - “St. Kilda strategically played a dab hand, clearly prioritising two matches.“

Obviously taking from that that we realistically expected a loss against the Cats and managed the list accordingly for the Suns and Bombers. Which actually is what a few on here suggested. Playing Ryder, Jones and Ross for that game may still not have given us a win - much better to rest them for games we are most likely to win and get enough of these in the bag for finals.

Well all three were certainly at their best for the Dons game.

Our remaining fixture is much easier to manage, often with a rest advantage, and our one short break we are equal our opponent WCE in disadvantage.


If by the time we play WCE our finals berth is still under threat while we know that we have a 2 day rest advantage in playing GWS in the last round, there may also be at least 3 games in Round 17 that may have a huge bearing on our ladder position including GWS vs Dees. So that means we will be in the dark about our fate when we play and so cannot decide to do last minute rests, which other teams later in that round will have the knowledge to do.

So if in Round 17 our finals berth is not locked in before we play WCE I would not be surprised to see Ryder rested, as a Ryder/Marshall combo may be vital to win over GWS with their talent laden midfield.

We would also want Ryder at his best for the finals.

 

[BrutThough]

Well all three were certainly at their best for the Dons game.

Our remaining fixture is much easier to manage, often with a rest advantage, and our one short break we are equal our opponent WCE in disadvantage.


If by the time we play WCE our finals berth is still under threat while we know that we have a 2 day rest advantage in playing GWS in the last round, there may also be at least 3 games in Round 17 that may have a huge bearing on our ladder position including GWS vs Dees. So that means we will be in the dark about our fate when we play and so cannot decide to do last minute rests, which other teams later in that round will have the knowledge to do.

So if in Round 17 our finals berth is not locked in before we play WCE I would not be surprised to see Ryder rested, as a Ryder/Marshall combo may be vital to win over GWS with their talent laden midfield.

We would also want Ryder at his best for the finals.

Worth noting with West Coast, they only had 6 players fit and available to play in a scratch match this weekend.

And with their condensed schedule going 4 day break, 4 days, 5 days, 4 days, they might not have the luxury to resting players in this period which is good for us who apart from that one break, has a very normal break schedule.

We need every small advantage we can get.

 

[puppy_dog7]

this is the final ladder I came up with, I had us beating brisbane this week, but even if we lose that one we still finish 5th. Hopefully we don’t lose to Melb as well. Although in the scheme of things it doesn’t really matter, we’ll play either GWS Richmond or Melb in first week of finals.

 

[bird_man]

Does anyone know if those $50 pledge memberships would allow you to get finals tickets?

Thinking of getting my young bloke one (hes a Dogs supporter) and heading up for a final if we can make it.

George?

 

[bird_man]

this is the final ladder I came up with, I had us beating brisbane this week, but even if we lose that one we still finish 5th. Hopefully we don’t lose to Melb as well. Although in the scheme of things it doesn’t really matter, we’ll play either GWS Richmond or Melb in first week of finals.

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You are confident.

Basically we need to beat Hawthorn and one of Brisbane, GWS or Melbourne.

All tough games.

 

[puppy_dog7]

You are confident.

Basically we need to beat Hawthorn and one of Brisbane, GWS or Melbourne.

All tough games.

Gotta be confident. I’m worried about the GWS one. Purely because it’s the final round. If we played them this week I reckon we’d have them. I think if we can halve the midfield battle against Melbourne our defence can easily match up on their forward line, and conversely our forward line will be hard for their defence to match up on, so should beat them on the outside.
Brisbane coming off a big loss to Richmond and poor game against North. I think if their goal kicking accuracy or lack thereof continues we should be able to get them. Although Charlie Cameron worries me.

 

[plugger66]

this is the final ladder I came up with, I had us beating brisbane this week, but even if we lose that one we still finish 5th. Hopefully we don’t lose to Melb as well. Although in the scheme of things it doesn’t really matter, we’ll play either GWS Richmond or Melb in first week of finals.

View attachment 937931

I had us 7th with 10 wins but like I’ve said before I never get 9 winners a week. Given us one 50/50 game out of two and a win against the hawks. Loses to lions and wce. Love a top 4 spot but don’t think we are good enough. If all finals are in Queensland then 5th to 8th doesn’t matter unless you get Brisbane the following week.

 

[George]

Does anyone know if those $50 pledge memberships would allow you to get finals tickets?

Thinking of getting my young bloke one (hes a Dogs supporter) and heading up for a final if we can make it.

George?

No idea on finals unfortunately. Might be first in first served this year as there would be a capacity limit.

 

[George]

5 wins interstate this year, and 3 of those against teams that are actually based in the state we beat them in (Port and Adelaide in SA, Gold Coast in QLD)

 

[bird_man]

5 wins interstate this year, and 3 of those against teams that are actually based in the state we beat them in (Port and Adelaide in SA, Gold Coast in QLD)

That's a massive step in the right direction considering we haven't beaten a side outside of GC interstate for almost 3 years

 

[mighty_sainters]

I can’t believe we only have 5 games to go.

Need to win against Melbourne more so then any other game.

 

[Hayes4PM]

Hawthorn and GWS should be wins, if we can’t at least win those or 1 of the other 3 we’re probably not finishing the year in a way to challenge any team in finals.

GWS are lost at sea, Hawthorn coming to terms with a rebuild and just lost Sicily. Like our GC and Essendon games, we just need to get a win doesn’t matter that much if it’s dominant or scraping by. We just need to put to bed the 2nd half fade out business we’ve shown a few times this year.

 

[George]

4 games to go.

R14 v Melbourne
R15 bye
R16 v Hawthorn
R17 v West Coast
R18 v GWS

Earliest we can mathematically clinch a finals spot is R16 v Hawthorn. This would happen if;

St.Kilda - Win next 2
Melbourne - Lose 2 of next 3 (St.Kilda, Sydney, Fremantle)
Carlton - Lose 2 of next 3 (Collingwood, GWS, Sydney)
GWS - Lose 2 of next 3 (Fremantle, Carlton, Adelaide)
Essendon - Lose 1 of next 3 (Hawthorn, West Coast, Geelong)
Fremantle - Lose 1 of next 3 (GWS, Richmond, Melbourne)

This weekend (Round 14) we should be rooting for the following;

St.Kilda v Melbourne
Carlton v Collingwood
Fremantle v GWS
Hawthorn v Essendon

Rest of the games don't matter.

 

[TheEnsign]

Unless several minor miracles occur it looks like we're going to be playing GWS for the last spot in the 8 come R18. At least we should get a FTA game out of it.

 

[puppy_dog7]

No matter how many times i do the ladder predictor it comes down to the GWS game to determine if we make the 8 now. I'm trying not to be a pessimist, but following this club for long enough has me of the opinion we'll choke at the final hurdle.

What's worse then not making finals is going to be all the media kicking the boots in if we do fail. We basically had a spot locked up 2 weeks ago. To miss from here, will see the same old mentally fragile, weak, pretender headlines bandied about. People on here will say the same old "Well, if we looked at the start of the year we'd be happy with this result. Much better then previous years."
But that's BS. We have had a massive chance to get some much needed finals experience in a compromised year that would do wonders for confidence. If we fail again at the final hurdle, it may well just have a negative effect on the group.

 

[mighty_sainters]

No matter how many times i do the ladder predictor it comes down to the GWS game to determine if we make the 8 now. I'm trying not to be a pessimist, but following this club for long enough has me of the opinion we'll choke at the final hurdle.

What's worse then not making finals is going to be all the media kicking the boots in if we do fail. We basically had a spot locked up 2 weeks ago. To miss from here, will see the same old mentally fragile, weak, pretender headlines bandied about. People on here will say the same old "Well, if we looked at the start of the year we'd be happy with this result. Much better then previous years."
But that's BS. We have had a massive chance to get some much needed finals experience in a compromised year that would do wonders for confidence. If we fail again at the final hurdle, it may well just have a negative effect on the group.

Pessimistic side of me totally agrees with you, optimistic side also agrees with you. I’m broken.

One bit of optimism I have is heavily reliant on playing 12 games at Marvel Stadium next season. Once we get back there we will be a different unit, so I tell myself.

 

[jwikked]

I think we’ll make it. Hawthorn are shit this year and GWS aren’t that good either.
West Coast will crush us, but whatever.

 

[puppy_dog7]

I think we’ll make it. Hawthorn are sh*t this year and GWS aren’t that good either.
West Coast will crush us, but whatever.

Well also, if Melbourne do the typical Melbourne and drop a game they should win against Syd/Freo/Ess then that may well save us

 

[TheEnsign]

I think we’ll make it. Hawthorn are sh*t this year and GWS aren’t that good either.
West Coast will crush us, but whatever.

WC will be such an interesting game. I agree that they'll win, but it will be their 3rd game in ten days, whereas we will have had a 'normal' fixture of breaks since the Bris game. Plus the play Dons and Dogs and you'd think each of those would be desperate and perhaps scrappy games since each of those sides still have a chance at the 8.