Racing Melbourne Cup 2020. * All race day discussion and Tips in here *(no aftertiming)

[balmainforever]

ANY AFTERTIMING WILL GET A CARD.

ANYONE BAGGING WHAT HAPPENED TO AVD GETS A CARD.

 

[iluvparis]

Read this thread every year gents but I don't input as I have nothing of value to add.
Anyhow just saw this so thought I'd share in here.
Your typical Aus Bloodstock horse being crunched

German galloper crunched from $51 into $18 for Melbourne Cup - Australian Bloodstock

australianbloodstock.com.au

Haha legit had to google it when I saw in the sportsbet market this morning - its got none and the $18 is almost bigger poison then when they talked Danceteria into Cox Plate fave last year. Easily beaten by Call The Wind in a very ordinary Kergolay last time out and was rolled at Listed level the start prio.

 

[Jugada]

Possibly the worst go I've seen for one of theirs. Was getting beaten by that Hungarian thing of Cummings

 

[Beardown1023]

Haha legit had to google it when I saw in the sportsbet market this morning - its got none and the $18 is almost bigger poison then when they talked Danceteria into Cox Plate fave last year. Easily beaten by Call The Wind in a very ordinary Kergolay last time out and was rolled at Listed level the start prio.

Exactly the sort of response I've come to expect from you Paris lol and just as I thought also

 

[FFB1]

Haha legit had to google it when I saw in the sportsbet market this morning - its got none and the $18 is almost bigger poison then when they talked Danceteria into Cox Plate fave last year. Easily beaten by Call The Wind in a very ordinary Kergolay last time out and was rolled at Listed level the start prio.

Murrell’s last ditch effort at getting a runner for this year. Looking forward to his preview declaring it one of very few chances.

 

[plays tall 1]

 

[bpg1986]

I’ve been backing Surprise Baby consistently and have it going for a stack.
Like most I didn’t miss its run last year, and when it became apparent that COVID would impact the amount and quality of the internationals raiding I started to step in, and am very happy I did.
However I am somewhat concerned that it’s favourite this weekend as if it wins this is would receive a weight penalty?
Can someone with a better knowledge of things help me understand how this works.
Weights are out next week so:
If it wins this week it will likely get more weight for the cup?
After the weights are released, if it wins a WFA race can it receive a weight penalty? Or only in handicaps?

my understanding of it all would suggest to me they wouldn’t want to be winning the race this week...

 

[plays tall 1]

I’ve been backing Surprise Baby consistently and have it going for a stack.
Like most I didn’t miss its run last year, and when it became apparent that COVID would impact the amount and quality of the internationals raiding I started to step in, and am very happy I did.
However I am somewhat concerned that it’s favourite this weekend as if it wins this is would receive a weight penalty?
Can someone with a better knowledge of things help me understand how this works.
Weights are out next week so:
If it wins this week it will likely get more weight for the cup?
After the weights are released, if it wins a WFA race can it receive a weight penalty? Or only in handicaps?

my understanding of it all would suggest to me they wouldn’t want to be winning the race this week...

Weights come out next week I think, so any performance between then and now could cause Carps to revise it’s weight. The Feehan is a G2 at WFA but not strong so it may not change SB’s weight.

After declaration of weights, I think the only non-handicap races that horses can be penalised for winning are those over 2300m or further.

 

[plays tall 1]

Murrell’s last ditch effort at getting a runner for this year. Looking forward to his preview declaring it one of very few chances.

They look to have a very weak hand this year, weaker than recent years. And Ashrun is no certainty to make the field.

 

[FFB1]

They look to have a very weak hand this year, weaker than recent years. And Ashrun is no certainty to make the field.

whoever put $4k on it* would be nervous.

* if someone actually did, funny how they never ease the prices of anything else.

 

[iluvparis]

They look to have a very weak hand this year, weaker than recent years. And Ashrun is no certainty to make the field.

Yeah they all look worse than normal - which is saying something as they haven't gone with in a bulls roar of getting anywhere near it since Protectionist's milkshake job.

 

[iluvparis]

I’ve been backing Surprise Baby consistently and have it going for a stack.
Like most I didn’t miss its run last year, and when it became apparent that COVID would impact the amount and quality of the internationals raiding I started to step in, and am very happy I did.
However I am somewhat concerned that it’s favourite this weekend as if it wins this is would receive a weight penalty?
Can someone with a better knowledge of things help me understand how this works.
Weights are out next week so:
If it wins this week it will likely get more weight for the cup?
After the weights are released, if it wins a WFA race can it receive a weight penalty? Or only in handicaps?

my understanding of it all would suggest to me they wouldn’t want to be winning the race this week...

I wouldn't worry - the race is soooooooo terrible that he'd have to win by a couple of lengths to get any more weight. He already has the equal highest rating (used to determine the weights) in the race apart from Regal Power - so only way I'd see him getting more weight is if him and Regal Power clear out from the rest and he beats Regal Power a couple of lengths.

 

[bpg1986]

Thanks for the responses, that all makes sense.

It’s a funny system where a win in this average field could cost him weight in the big dance, but he could bolt in in the cox plate and escape a penalty.

Preusker has played it perfectly so far.

I’ll take him on this weekend though, if he was mine a wouldn’t risk it with bigger fish to fry in two months time.

 

[iluvparis]

Regal Power's scratched now so he is the joint highest rated so a win is expected. Unless he goes full Dulcify it shouldn't matter (and then he will be about $4 for the cup anyway so you can juts lay off)

 

[iluvparis]

MASTER O'REILLY looks to frank the DELPHI form when he goes around as hot fave at Down Royal tonight

 

[IKnowtheDog]

MASTER O'REILLY looks to frank the DELPHI form when he goes around as hot fave at Down Royal tonight

Good to see the 2007 Caulfield Cup winner going strong still

 

[HeathySure]

Good to see the 2007 Caulfield Cup winner going strong still

a horse from your past that haunts you!

 

[IKnowtheDog]

a horse from your past that haunts you!

The only good thing about that Saturday was Pies beating Swans in the elimination final

 

[iluvparis]

PRINCE OF ARRAN going around against Enable tonight in the September Stakes at Kempton - the race also contains an Oz Bloodstock no hoper in the form of ALMANIA.

It's rating right now is miles away from getting in so could be a cheeky way to pad its rating if it manages to get within 10 of Enable or something.

 

[plays tall 1]

PARIS POWER RANKINGS

Thought I'd roll some weekly power rankings for a laugh and partially to help my thought process going forward into the race. Looking through the betting markets and jeez its dire out there.

1 - DEPLHI ($36 betfair) - Profiles like the recent 3yos that have dominated this race. Entered under the Freedman training tag so you know he's coming.
2 - SURPRISE BABY ($10.50) - Stevie Wonder couldn't have missed its run last year when it was probably a certainty beaten. A repeat of that has it right in the finish again this year.
3 - SIR DRAGONET ($36) - I think he might be more of a CC/CP type but those types have run well in this before (think Johannes Vermeer). Think he is the most untapped of the 4yos and has a nice SP profile back in the UK.
4 - VERRY ELLEEGANT ($22) - Had a Cup weight last year and went to the CP. Now actually in CP form and they want to come here with a WFA horses weight. Almost top pick with last years weight but it will be a mighty effort for her to win with the impost she will get.
5 - TIGER MOTH ($160) - Almost the pick of the 3yos but can only have him at #5 given I've heard zero about him coming.
6 - PRINCE OF ARRAN ($65) - Modern day Red Cadeaux in that he is dogshit back home but grows a leg out here. Will run well again if he comes.
7 - COLETTE ($95) - Only gets in the list as she was dominant in AJC Oaks and hasn't run yet to show the form is rubbish (it probably is).
8 - DASHING WILLOUGHBY ($42) - Definitely coming but has that crappy profile of winning early season in the UK then looking a plodder once the big boys come out. That profile ususally doesn't stack up.
9 - RUSSIAN CAMELOT ($11) - some of the biggest poi poi you will ever see in every antepost market. Scrapes into top 10 but will be quick to dump him out if he fails first up. Remindes me of the year Puissance De Lune was fave for everything and was quickly found out.
10 - FINCHE ($40) - can't win as we saw with two golden opportunities last year but honest as the day is long and could go top 5 in both.

Confident that Delphi makes the field with a rating of 108?

 

[iluvparis]

Confident that Delphi makes the field with a rating of 108?

Yeah should be straight in this year with that rating as a 3yo

 

[FFB1]

Confident that Delphi makes the field with a rating of 108?

They reckon he'll be sitting around the 30 mark in the OOE, would easily get him in.

 

[iluvparis]

PRINCE OF ARRAN going around against Enable tonight in the September Stakes at Kempton - the race also contains an Oz Bloodstock no hoper in the form of ALMANIA.

It's rating right now is miles away from getting in so could be a cheeky way to pad its rating if it manages to get within 10 of Enable or something.

Prince of Arran decent enough - should run well again this year without winning.

Thankfully the Oz Bloodstock thing went as bad as expected so no false ratings boost to get it up the OOE

 

[frantelle]

Prince of Arran decent enough - should run well again this year without winning.

Thankfully the Oz Bloodstock thing went as bad as expected so no false ratings boost to get it up the OOE

Cheers. Enjoying your MC journaling

 

[iluvparis]

PARIS POWER RANKINGS - A NEW LEADER EMERGES

1 - SURPRISE BABY (Last week #2, Betfair $9.20) - perfect return and lets face it - nothing in Australia right now is going to beat this home if it turns up in form on the day. One more decent run and its close to chips in territory.
2 - DELPHI (LW #1, $36) - Might go around in the English St Leger on Saturday night
3 - SIR DRAGONET (LW #3, $50) - slight Betfair drift this week perhaps suggesting better suited CC and CP
4 - VERRY ELLEEGANT (LW #4, $24) - Humidor's stranglehold over the Cox Plate opens up her Cups double chances
5 - FINCHE (LW #10, $34) - Superb return from this fellow who looks a monty for top 5 in both cups again without winning either
6 - PRINCE OF ARRAN (LW #6, $36) - Nice run well behind Enable over the weekend - rock bottom price now for a horse who like Finche is not good enough to actually win
7 - TIGER MOTH (LW #5, $130) - Might around around in either of the St Legers this weekend. Still radio silence about a trip so drops a couple of placings
8 - DASHING WILLOUGHBY (LW #8, $38) - Remains the standard English plodder that is generally not good enough
9 - RUSSIAN CAMELOT (LW #9, $12.5) - Resumes this week so expect big movement one way or the other
10 - NICKAJACK CAVE (LW ur, $32) - Like an Irish Dashing Willoughby - the kind of profile/plodder that generally doesn't win but remains firm on Betfar (was $60+ when I mentioned he was coming earlier in the thread) and to be honest I had to throw something in

 

[frantelle]

ILP, approximately what is the gap (best estimate) between some of these prospects? Is SB heads and shoulders above Delphi now that it's moved ahead?