List Mgmt. 2020 List Management: Contracts, Trading, Drafting, Academy

[Shadow89]

to get you have to give

nothing is for free and no reason for Geelong to feel a sense of entitlement

Tom Lynch.

 

[GWS Goose]

In my view, Perryman is a pretty big price to pay for a Ruckman. We have put the work into getting him experience, he is now a consistent performer, I really hope we keep him.
Of all our off contract players, I thought Perryman would be the most likely to re-sign

 

[Gigantic]

Perryman is also very popular at the club so a Nankervis type probably just won't be enough for them to let him go

 

[Pres]

In my view, Perryman is a pretty big price to pay for a Ruckman. We have put the work into getting him experience, he is now a consistent performer, I really hope we keep him.
Of all our off contract players, I thought Perryman would be the most likely to re-sign

Also I think that, all being equal the club should look to try and retain as many of the players that have come out of the zone as possible: Williams, Perryman, Hopper, Green, Cumming, Himmelberg, Stein. Even Finlayson.

In these days of homogeneous teams it helps with community reach and gives the club a bit more identity somehow I think.

 

[Andre the Giant]

Perryman is pretty slow. I'd be surprised if he suits the manic Richmond high speed game plan.

Perryman suits any team, he’s just a gun footballer and if he isn’t a priority to re-sign McCartney is having a laugh.

 

[GWS Goose]

Perryman suits any team, he’s just a gun footballer and if he isn’t a priority to re-sign McCartney is having a laugh.

He'll be wanted, for sure and certain. The question is more about what you can afford.

 

[Giant Pete]

I reckon we’ll lose Corr, Hately and Williams.

 

[PMBangers]

I reckon we’ll lose Corr, Hately and Williams.

I could live with that being the extent of our exodus, realistically think Caldwell is more chance to leave than stay now, some decent coin being offered

 

[Giant Pete]

I could live with that being the extent of our exodus, realistically think Caldwell is more chance to leave than stay now, some decent coin being offered

That would give us two second rounders and a first rounder.
Btw I’ve given up on this season.
We’ll lose a few, but we have Ash to cover Williams... he’s a ripper. Cumming will be really good too.
The media will rip into them and they’ll come into the season with the least expectation they’ve had for ages.

 

[PMBangers]

That would give us two second rounders and a first rounder.
Btw I’ve given up on this season.
We’ll lose a few, but we have Ash to cover Williams... he’s a ripper. Cumming will be really good too.
The media will rip into them and they’ll come into the season with the least expectation they’ve had for ages.

Nice irony with the media saying they expect us to be s**t this year after the grand final loss, then seem surprised we're doing s**t tbh

 

[THE_GUN]

A Ruck target I'd love to go for is Bailey Williams from WCE, rated him in his draft year and don't think he's getting ahead at WCE anytime soon, whereas he'd be best 22 for us pretty quickly. Soldo or Nankervis as well might be gettable targets as well, and have the added benefit of that inside Richmond culture (could have a BEllis effect)

I certainly think 1 will definitely be available with Richmond signing Mate Colina today as a Cat B rookie
We currently have Soldo , Nankervis , Chol , Callum Coleman-Jones on the list. If I was a GWS supporter as far as young talent i would go for CCJ as he is just about ready but if you wanted a ready to go 2x premiership ruckman thats Mummy like Nankervis would be that player

Really, Mumford has done amazingly well. He retired, and came back a year later!

But someone under 28 would be nice.
I guess it's a small pond.

Mummy mrk 2 - Toby Nankervis

 

[Giant Strides]

I certainly think 1 will definitely be available with Richmond signing Mate Colina today as a Cat B rookie
We currently have Soldo , Nankervis , Chol , Callum Coleman-Jones on the list. If I was a GWS supporter as far as young talent i would go for CCJ as he is just about ready but if you wanted a ready to go 2x premiership ruckman thats Mummy like Nankervis would be that player



Mummy mrk 2 - Toby Nankervis

You'd think that has all changed after last night. If Soldo misses most of next year, along with CCJ suspended for several weeks at the start of the year, I doubt Nank will be released.

But yes, in theory, he was probably the most likely guy that suited us.

 

[Callums_Guns]

You'd think that has all changed after last night. If Soldo misses most of last year, along with CCJ suspended for several weeks at the start of the year, I doubt Nank will be released.

But yes, in theory, he was probably the most likely guy that suited us.

Be interesting with some of the players that will be on the move if they try and make a play for Peter Wright or Draper

 

[Giant Strides]

Be interesting with some of the players that will be on the move if they try and make a play for Peter Wright

I don't understand why they would - I really don't rate 2MP. But if they do, then yes you'd have to presume that would push out Nank. I really don't understand why they would so that, other than they have a belief that Nank doesn't fit their style of play (but then I would have thought that neither did 2MP).

I am just concerned, though, that whoever we get there will still be an underperformance and we'll continue to carry on about ruck woes. Unless we got Nic Nat, Gawn or Grundy, I think we'd continue to have a bit of an inferiority complex.

And after saying all that, we still haven't given Flynn or Briggs a run in first grade to see what they might be able to do!

 

[Giant Pete]

Piss Mumford off... he gave away two free kicks tonight that lead directly to opposition goals..... when we had the ******* ball!!
Piss Jacobs off too.
Shaw’s done.
I don’t reckon we use DeBoer much going forward.
My side:
Ash Davis Haynes
Williams Taylor Corr
Whitfield Cogs Kelly
Daniels Cameron Greene
Lloyd HH Hill
Briggs Hopper Taranto

Finlayson Green Perryman Ward

Close: Caldwell, Buckley, Idun, Hately, Flynn, Cumming, Riccardi, XOH, Keeffe, DeBoer
Obviously we’ll lose a couple but you get my drift.

 

[PMBangers]

Please please please, if we end up with some first round picks, aggressively target Zach Reid, Denver Grainger-Barrass, Nikolas Cox (all tall defenders) and Oliver Henry, Jack Carroll or Eddie Ford, would make us look better instantly

 

[Pres]

Piss Mumford off... he gave away two free kicks tonight that lead directly to opposition goals..... when we had the ******* ball!!
Piss Jacobs off too.
Shaw’s done.
I don’t reckon we use DeBoer much going forward.
My side:
Ash Davis Haynes
Williams Taylor Corr
Whitfield Cogs Kelly
Daniels Cameron Greene
Lloyd HH Hill
Briggs Hopper Taranto

Finlayson Green Perryman Ward

Close: Caldwell, Buckley, Idun, Hately, Flynn, Cumming, Riccardi, XOH, Keeffe, DeBoer
Obviously we’ll lose a couple but you get my drift.

Surely all of Corr, Caldwell and Hately are departing at season's end?

 

[Giant Pete]

Surely all of Corr, Caldwell and Hately are departing at season's end?

Did you read the end of my post?

 

[BarryAglett]

To change the subject; Jack Buckley looks handy and will help cover a player loss through salary cap.

 

[Giant Strides]

So, some general thoughts forming as we stumble towards the end of our season:

• We obviously don't know what's happening with list sizes and TPP (which is IMHO an unbelievably unprofessional situation from AFL House), but I'm assuming that it will end up something like 38 main list plus a small rookie list (maybe 2 Cat As + perhaps some Cat Bs). So it's difficult to make too many prognostications, but a small cull from our current list size, which is likely to come fairly naturally from retirements and those leaving. The $ situation will mean that we will keep some shittier players such as Sam Reid on cheaper deals.

• I think our forward list is actually in a good place - acknowledging that they haven't necessarily performed this year. But in terms of talls, Jezza (if he stays, which I suspect he will), Riccardi, HH would be what I think will go forward, with Buckley (who looked OK in the Demons game without actually playing forward much). TOJ could stay if he accepted a big pay cut from his reputed salary, otherwise likely to be traded for some draft access. Sproule could stay as a cheap forward option. That probably leaves us looking for another cheap tall option to develop as a project in NEAFL.

• Brent Daniels & Bobby Hill have shown this year they've got what it takes to cut it in first grade IMHO, and along with Greene should be our go-to small/medium forwards in future. Lloyd is a cheap, hard-working foil, and the last couple of weeks have demonstrated his value to the side as a role player. Langdon has been disappointingly poor this year - I'd have no problems in cutting him but don't see us getting anything of value for him, so alternatively, keep him as a cheap, still-young back-up, and hope he can regain his 2018 form. So, maybe one draftee in this line to develop, but not really a priority in my view.

• Our defence is a bit of a mess IMHO. In Davis, Corr, Taylor & Haynes we have - on paper - a very good and age-balanced set. But (a) they haven't performed to that level this year when together, and (b) we have again suffered from a massive disruption through a mounting injury toll, and our backups - Keeffe, Stein, Idun & Buntine - are at best limited or developing. Last year I was an advocate of getting Josh Walker in and not keeping Keeffe. While Keeffe has actually been better than I expected this year, he's still limited. I don't know what's going on with Stein - he's taking a spot on the roster (albeit rookie list) but even with Corr out couldn't get ahead of Idun to come in. Buntine, if included as a tall, has been unused, and I remain surprised that he was extended, except perhaps that he's cheap. Like PMBangers, I would advocate bringing in a young tall - such as Nik Cox or Zach Reid if we can get a high enough draft pick from departures (DGB would seem to be out of reach, and I'm not convinced he's the right type of KPD for our needs). If we lose Corr, there's a list spot for such a youngster.

• I assume that Shaw will retire, although he continues to show sparks of why he's been such an outstanding player - for example, last week's soccer goalie save. (Some of the younger players need to show that resolve.)If Williams leaves, which seems more likely, then I think our medium defence - especially the counter-attacking elements - will be very weak. Ash is a guy we'll need to rely on, so I'm puzzled by dropping him this week (perhaps a rest for short turnarounds was required, but why omitted rather than managed?). Kennedy is ageing, Cumming I'm unconvinced by, Reid should be purely break-glass-for-emergencies, and Callum Brown is not ready. We will need to use Whitfield in that backline, but that just papers over the cracks. We need speed, with someone like Lachlan Jones or Joel Western - but they're both unavailable as other academy types. Given our existing problems down back, lack of developing options on the list, and our lack of draft capital, I'm seeing that will continue next year.

• Our midfield - on paper - is very strong, but hugely underperformed this year. Cogs & Ward coming back from injuries, plus the early season Taranto injury left them all a bit short for this year IMHO. Hopper underperformed, Kelly was enigmatic again - some really good weeks, some injuries, and some underperformances. Tom Green showed in the Demons match that he shouldn't be dropped again, and just needs to be stuck in the guts and allowed to develop naturally. MdB is getting to the point of being a role player - play him if a tag is required and not if there isn't. Perryman we need to hold onto for his natural footballing instincts. Some of the young backups - Caldwell, Hately and O'Halloran - were underwhelming. Unsure if it was lack of confidence (or arrogance/displeasure) at not being picked first up, interstate dislocation, lack of NEAFL games, COVID disruption, or talent not as strong as expected, but none locked themselves a place in the best 22. All of those 3 may look for other opportunities in home states - extremely disappointing for us, and we won't get value for losing them.

• Ruck again is a massive issue. Jacobs did not solve our problem at all. As someone noted in the Demons game thread, while his stats might be better than Mumford's, the team actually performs worse when he's playing. Mumford plays some good elements, but is poor in others - especially in giving away too many free kicks. I don't know what we're going to do - probably something that still doesn't solve the problem. Personally, I'd get rid of both and if we could get Nankervis do so, but the problem we have is two young, developing rucks, of whom we have no idea if they're any good.

So, likely outs: Shaw, Mumford, Sheridan (retired/delisted), Finlayson, Corr, Williams, Hately, maybe Caldwell, maybe O'Halloran, hopefully not Perryman (FA/trade). I'd like to hold onto O'Halloran and see if we can use him off the backline, and Caldwell too. If not, though, we need to extract maximum price for them - especially Caldwell who will likely develop into a gun in more conducive surroundings (i.e. home state, no COVID).

Jezza & Kelly the other possible departures, with enormous ramifications to the list if they do (in terms of releasing $ to keep others).

 

[Giant Strides]

Scenario time, following on from my last post.

Assumptions:

• We finish 10th, so nominally pick #9 (to Adelaide), #27 (with points penalty moves to #38) & #45 - before any FA compo is applied
• List is cut to 38 Main List + 2 Cat A rookies (or just a straight 40 ML) + 2 Cat B rookies (Callum Brown & Jack Buckley are our current Cat B rookies, I'm unsure if Jack will need to move up given the current situation)
• Mummy & Heater retire as expected, we cut Sheridan as a start
• Williams leaves to whoever pays him most, and we get a first round compo pick, #10 (before any other FA compos such as Brad Crouch) or FS/NGA selections on the night
• Corr goes to Norths, nets an end of first round compo pick (#20, before any others) or second round (#29)
• Caldwell, Hately & Finlayson leave: let's assume a mid to late first rounder for Caldwell (e.g. Saints, Norths, Geelong) [ignore anything later they might want in return], second rounders for the other 2
• We keep Jezza, Harry Perryman, Xavier O'Halloran & Dan Lloyd.
• That leaves us with: 32 ML players, 3 Cat A rookies (Reid, Stein, Sproule), 2 Cat B players & roughly pick #10, a mid/late 1st rounder, 3 x 2nd rounders, 2 x third rounders (moved back by at least two spots from #38 & #45)

Questions:

• What assumptions do you disagree with, and why or what's the alternative view?
• Do we trade for anyone? (e.g. a ruckman such as Nankervis, and what does that cost us?)
• Under that scenario, we have 5 spots available and 5 decent picks in the first and second rounds plus two third round picks: so do we cut deeper - Langdon, Cumming or one or more of the Cat A rookies instead of promoting one as we'd need to do under my assumptions?
• Do we try to trade picks up for an earlier shot?
• If we stick with those picks, who are we roughly targeting? (e.g. 1st rounder on KPD Cox or Reid, mid/late 1st rounder then on Archie Perkins or Eddie Ford, second rounders on running backs/wingman types Jack Carroll, Brayden Cook)
• If we look to trade up, who are we looking to target?

It looks like another busy off-season for GWS when I'd hoped (again!) it would be quiet. Interested in people's early thoughts even within the vacuum of list/TPP information.

 

[gee whiz giant]

Scenario time, following on from my last post.
What assumptions do you disagree with, and why or what's the alternative view?

My feeling overall is that there's too much churn. Too much change & disruption.
Are we known only as the team with all the high draft picks? Is that going to be it?
Each year using last years draft picks as currency for the next, devalued at that.

If Hately is worth a second round pick now, why'd we pick him so high. Was his selection criteria wrong?
They cited that going for 'quality' character was paramount, young leaders at their school blah, blah,

The overall picture is we now have an age spread, and in any other team, draft top-ups keep that spread consistent.
I can't answer any more because a better coaching profile is even more important.

2020. Lost; Nicks & McConnel early. Hayes, Miller, McVeigh late. Campbell dismissed.
Now that is churn.

 

[Giant Strides]

My feeling overall is that there's too much churn. Too much change & disruption.
Are we known only as the team with all the high draft picks? Is that going to be it?
Each year using last years draft picks as currency for the next, devalued at that.

100% agree with that. I've said it for a number of years that if we just keep turning over a significant number of players each year, we'd be forever stop-starting with our depth. Better to have fewer but better quality selections.

However, I get the problem - that it's easier said than done. As we retain 'good' players, their value grows, and we run into list TPP problems. It will eventually normalise, but at the moment we're still managing the effects of the original set-up.

If Hately is worth a second round pick now, why'd we pick him so high. Was his selection criteria wrong?
They cited that going for 'quality' character was paramount, young leaders at their school blah, blah,

Have we got things wrong? Well, if early picks leave after just two years, I'd say so. Caruso and his team have done a good job overall since SOS left, but they have not been perfect. This year it's a combination of factors - early draftees' expectations of immediately playing first grade, not being willing to earn their place, this year I think the added stress of COVID lockdowns and disruptions while away from home, some over-estimation of their motivations certainly (and Bonar & Setterfield before that).

I can't answer any more because a better coaching profile is even more important.
2020. Lost; Nicks & McConnel early. Hayes, Miller, McVeigh late. Campbell dismissed.
Now that is churn.

I agree that the coaching roundabout has and will hurt us. But we're going to trade and draft irrespective of what happens with the coaching staff - although that might be the bigger impact towards success or failure.

Cheers.

 

[dlanod]

If Hately is worth a second round pick now, why'd we pick him so high. Was his selection criteria wrong?

That's not how it works. A pick depreciates the moment it stops being a pick and becomes a player unless that player is an instant star. There's a variety of reasons why:

1. A pick is useful to any club, a particular player only some. Doubly so if they are picky about where they go.
2. There is a deeper pool of actual players than picks and limitations on what can be traded for the high end, so all players are graded on a curve from "two first round picks" down.
3. By the end of a player's first year, let alone first contract, it becomes a lot less about potential and a lot more about form.

 

[PMBangers]

What assumptions do you disagree with, and why or what's the alternative view?

The only one I think is too ambitious is Corr getting Band 2, I predicted Band 3 considering I'd assume he'd only be getting 400k a year for 3 years, but Band 2 and I'd be happy as larry

Do we trade for anyone? (e.g. a ruckman such as Nankervis, and what does that cost us?)

I REALLY wanted to target Soldo pre friday night, Nank I'd be cautious of, seems to have a lot of injury problems and is he just too similar to what we've had previously in Mumford and have now in Briggs? The advantage of Nank would be that he can be an option forward when resting, but I look at other guys in the league like a Ladhams or a Wright that can win more ruck taps, one of Ladhams or Nank I'd be happy with tbh.
I'd also look at Richmond youngster Fraser Turner, good winger who I thought we'd look at in the 2018 draft

If we stick with those picks, who are we roughly targeting? (e.g. 1st rounder on KPD Cox or Reid, mid/late 1st rounder then on Archie Perkins or Eddie Ford, second rounders on running backs/wingman types Jack Carroll, Brayden Cook)

I was going to reply to your other post so it's good you asked this directly. DGB/ Thilthorpe are dreams, not that they'll fall that far but those are two I really like for us. Around 10? Lachlan Jones (#10 in my rankings) bid first off, then Oliver Henry (#11), Nik Cox (#12) or Zach Reid (#17) are 3 around that mark I really think make our youth look twice as good (or Campbell if he's somehow not been bid on by then), Henry gives me Sicily vibes as a defender and Breust vibes as a forward.
Mid/ late first, Ford (#14) or Carroll (#13) , both can play the mid/fwd split well, with Ford being a more athletic explosive type and Carroll being more McCluggage like as a composed game reader, either fit, I'd probably say Carroll suits us more with the Wing role going into the future
Early seconds, Gulden would be great, classic kid getting under rated because of height (same as Freo boy Western), and then take whatever we didn't grab with our first in terms of KPP or Medium utility/ backline players, Callow and Walker, both from Tassie, peak my interest here

If we look to trade up, who are we looking to target?

Thilthorpe, DGB, Hollands or McDonald would all give us a reason to smile

 

[Giant Pete]

Caruso and the recruiting team have done a fantastic job. From Sam Taylor to Brent Daniels and Bobby Hill. Trading up to get Taranto. Everything they have done in the draft has been A grade.
Their only blunder has been in the mature ruck department. Why we didn’t go for someone like Preuss baffles me.

I feel strongly that Hately and Corr are gone. That should get us two second rounders. If Williams goes that should end up being a first rounder. We don’t have a strong need for young players. We are well stocked for depth in every area, except rucks in their prime. It’d be good to use that to trade in a mature ruck - with Mummy gone. Maybe even pay out sauce with most of his money. He won’t be of any use.
I’d love to see Briggs or Flynn get a crack this week against the Saints.