I truly believe the large amount of benefits finishing last outweigh any negatives from our first spoon. Especially this year. Major benefits:
- Clearly pick 1 - we choose whoever we like. The best available player in the talent pool.
- Pick 2 - if Crouch leaves gives us the option to optimise and controlling favoured selection outcomes (eg say one M/F and one KPP)
- Leverage power of 1 and 2, to get draft concessions potentially from Bullies by not bidding on JUH
- Leverage pick 2 threat to Swans to aim for a pick swap of Crows pick 2 and 2nd round pick (either this year or next) for Swans pick 4 and 1st sound 2021
- PSD threat when negotiating possible multiple deals in the off-season (think GCS screwing us over with Greenwood last year). Linked already to Hately and Caldwell this is a negotiating tactic that can be used more than once if played correctly.
- Gives us pick 19 (before distortions) and possibly (probably) pick 20 with Atkins to GCS. These are VERY valuable picks. Look at previous years and what Brissie gave up to get the first selection in the second round last year to Power who did well in leveraging this.
A number of above points - Swans potential first selection in 2021 and also pick 19 and 20 trading onwards for 2021 picks helps provide deep value picks in a midfield rich draft containing Horne (and I believe) a few other SA M/F's next year but will leave further commentary to the draft experts.
Will be very disappointed to not finish 18th for the above reasons. All I care about in that 3-5 years from now is having a flag capable squad. There is NO doubt finishing 18th and the many advantages helps speed up the process, especially as recent form may point to us not being one of the very bottom teams next year (Kangas, Hawks, Swans all seemingly now worse prospects in 2021) so we may not finish with a very high end draft pick next year.
Email below to Senior Management (CEO, COO etc), Directors, List Managers and all Coaches the other night spells it all out in further detail. All such employees and Directors acutely aware of the benefits as outlined above. I was jokingly told ' I must have been 'bugging their office' with the detail below
Interested in other fans thoughts here?
Evening Ladies & Gents
Below is a 7 pillar strategy, involving one-off competitive advantages available to the AFC in 2020, needing to be very strongly leveraged in my view. We have been screwed over time and time again by the AFL and other clubs in numerous ways – time for karma to catch up
I would appreciate 5 mins of your time to read the below.
The club has been through a lot and ALL of the below looks at moving forward, leveraging some unique advantages this year. I am sure theres much other off-field stuff also being done (assistants etc) – the below is purely from a draft and trade strategy and I would like to think you are 100% over every point already.
Key strategies
Otherwise #1 on Hamishs and Justins preference. With Himmelbergs recent ascension if that means we go Vic country midfielder (Hollands) instead I leave that to our experts who have consistently nailed the draft overall in the last 10-13 years with the help of Matty Rendell – any chance we can give him a gig again reporting to Hamish?
Realistically with the above AND having gained high value picks for next years draft we could end up with Hollands (#1), Thilthorpe (#4, or #2 if no trade), another speedy mid or 2 with picks gained from GWS first round this year and possibly Bullies first rounder as per above. Plus we bring Hately home and incentivise Caldwells (both contenders for first pick in 2018 when we picked Jones I would have thought and commanding salaries GWS cant easily match 280-400k per year) with $ and their previous strong relationship with Nicksy (deal probably involves giving GWS back their first this year and us maybe chucking in a second rounder somewhere). And then we have our NGA/FS that we choose – Edwards (?), Borlase and the seemingly exciting Newchurch who hopefully has been tanking his defensive pressure in recent weeks.
With seemingly some obvious outs - Gibbs, Atkins, Knight, Poholke, Wilson, Davis, B Crouch (?) and even wonder if a 29 yo B Smith who we all love but would be tempted for a top 15 type pick from a contender.. Lots of genuine elite talent brought in which after never bottoming out is what we now clearly need.
All the best and thanks for spending the time reading
- Clearly pick 1 - we choose whoever we like. The best available player in the talent pool.
- Pick 2 - if Crouch leaves gives us the option to optimise and controlling favoured selection outcomes (eg say one M/F and one KPP)
- Leverage power of 1 and 2, to get draft concessions potentially from Bullies by not bidding on JUH
- Leverage pick 2 threat to Swans to aim for a pick swap of Crows pick 2 and 2nd round pick (either this year or next) for Swans pick 4 and 1st sound 2021
- PSD threat when negotiating possible multiple deals in the off-season (think GCS screwing us over with Greenwood last year). Linked already to Hately and Caldwell this is a negotiating tactic that can be used more than once if played correctly.
- Gives us pick 19 (before distortions) and possibly (probably) pick 20 with Atkins to GCS. These are VERY valuable picks. Look at previous years and what Brissie gave up to get the first selection in the second round last year to Power who did well in leveraging this.
A number of above points - Swans potential first selection in 2021 and also pick 19 and 20 trading onwards for 2021 picks helps provide deep value picks in a midfield rich draft containing Horne (and I believe) a few other SA M/F's next year but will leave further commentary to the draft experts.
Will be very disappointed to not finish 18th for the above reasons. All I care about in that 3-5 years from now is having a flag capable squad. There is NO doubt finishing 18th and the many advantages helps speed up the process, especially as recent form may point to us not being one of the very bottom teams next year (Kangas, Hawks, Swans all seemingly now worse prospects in 2021) so we may not finish with a very high end draft pick next year.
Email below to Senior Management (CEO, COO etc), Directors, List Managers and all Coaches the other night spells it all out in further detail. All such employees and Directors acutely aware of the benefits as outlined above. I was jokingly told ' I must have been 'bugging their office' with the detail below
Interested in other fans thoughts here?
Evening Ladies & Gents
Below is a 7 pillar strategy, involving one-off competitive advantages available to the AFC in 2020, needing to be very strongly leveraged in my view. We have been screwed over time and time again by the AFL and other clubs in numerous ways – time for karma to catch up
I would appreciate 5 mins of your time to read the below.
The club has been through a lot and ALL of the below looks at moving forward, leveraging some unique advantages this year. I am sure theres much other off-field stuff also being done (assistants etc) – the below is purely from a draft and trade strategy and I would like to think you are 100% over every point already.
Key strategies
- Ensure we finish bottom (which clearly is likely but not yet fait accompli) – the benefits far outweigh the negatives as outlined below. As a passionate fan all I care about is future success. Finishing 17 or 18 this year makes not an iota of difference. The below strategies are prefaced based on finishing bottom. Failure to do so, severely compromises most of the following.
- Pick 2 for B Crouch (assumes the AFL can confirm this prior to finalising the matter). Pick 2 and the leverage it involves far EXCEEDS the value of pick 2 itself. If pick 2 not available for BC, must be tempting to keep him. Re Atkins – if he really is getting 450-500k for 4-5 years from GC then that gives us pick 20 (in pure terms) – a great result for us and he is clearly gone.
- Use the threat of PSD for obtaining required players for UNDERS (see H Greenwood to GC last year). This threat can be used on MULTIPLE occasions if leveraged correctly. As a minimum pick up one required player (Hately or Caldwell for example if needed through this means). We should now have salary cap room to start to compete for such players that we haven’t had in recent years. We are traditionally portrayed as being ‘Mr Nice Guy’ in the AFL – time to change this perception to our advantage?
- Pick 1 – threaten to use on JUH unless Bullies come to the table with a mutually advantageous trade to share the points (Crows to own majority of points benefit) if we DON’T bid on JUH with either pick one or 2 (623 points after ‘NGA ‘discount’ saved if JUH is bid on pick 3 at earliest instead of pick 1). We completely control this outcome. We all know they screwed us with the A Keath trade last year so take ’no prisoners’ please. They come to the party or we bid #1 on JUH.
Otherwise #1 on Hamishs and Justins preference. With Himmelbergs recent ascension if that means we go Vic country midfielder (Hollands) instead I leave that to our experts who have consistently nailed the draft overall in the last 10-13 years with the help of Matty Rendell – any chance we can give him a gig again reporting to Hamish?
- Pick 2 – now this is the interesting one for me. Assuming we want another KPP and equally happy with Thilthorpe (rather than Mc Donald or another KPD in Barras ) then it seems likely Thilthorpe may go 4-6. We need to convince Swans we are going to BID on Swans academy player Campbell here (who personally looks like a top 2 midfielder to me anyway). We need Swans to TRADE their very likely current PICK 4 as they now play Lions and Cats (pick 4 in ‘pure’ terms, before distortions kick in), and we in return give them PICK 2 to get either Phillips, Mc Donald or Barras AND their own Gun Academy player). What would the trade look like….We have last years similar GWS trade as a template. Crows give up pick 2 and a second round pick 2021 (or one of our second rounders this year) for Swans pick 4 AND the Swans first pick next year. Clearly the Swans are in rebuild mode, Buddy cooked and along with Kangas and Hawks (and probably ourselves) look likely bottom 4-5 teams next year.
- If we end up with both pick 19 and 20 (Atkins) as per previous years these picks are VERY valuable to start the 2nd round of drafting (especially if held over 2 nights again – not sure if draft over 2 nights again, or at least an extended break between rounds one and two if held the same night?) Our feral friends down the road at Alberton leveraged pick 19 brilliantly last year and we can do the same – keep at least ONE if not BOTH until trade night to get into next years draft to gain maximum benefit for teams scrambling to pick up a player that unexpectedly slipped from first round.
- Position ourselves again for deep drafting in the midfield rich 2021 draft, including Souths Jason Horne. SA’s best pure midfielder for well over a decade? Trading with Swans as per above and/or using pick 19/20 to roll into a lucrative 2021 draft pick will help enable this,
Realistically with the above AND having gained high value picks for next years draft we could end up with Hollands (#1), Thilthorpe (#4, or #2 if no trade), another speedy mid or 2 with picks gained from GWS first round this year and possibly Bullies first rounder as per above. Plus we bring Hately home and incentivise Caldwells (both contenders for first pick in 2018 when we picked Jones I would have thought and commanding salaries GWS cant easily match 280-400k per year) with $ and their previous strong relationship with Nicksy (deal probably involves giving GWS back their first this year and us maybe chucking in a second rounder somewhere). And then we have our NGA/FS that we choose – Edwards (?), Borlase and the seemingly exciting Newchurch who hopefully has been tanking his defensive pressure in recent weeks.
With seemingly some obvious outs - Gibbs, Atkins, Knight, Poholke, Wilson, Davis, B Crouch (?) and even wonder if a 29 yo B Smith who we all love but would be tempted for a top 15 type pick from a contender.. Lots of genuine elite talent brought in which after never bottoming out is what we now clearly need.
All the best and thanks for spending the time reading
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