Analysis The rebuild of Carlton and Brisbane and their future prospects

[PetterdHoisted]

We are not perfect by any stretch but I’m not sure how anyone can fault the recruitment of Jack Martin. Had a fantastic first season and still has plenty of improvement left. Filled a position of need. Will be on a reduced contract when we hope to be contending and didn’t cost us any draft capital.

That’s one thing we got spot on IMO.

good get as a player no doubt, but playing dirty to get him may hurt when it comes to future trade deals. Wouldn't expect too many clubs to deal with Carlton in good faith for a while.

Disappointing end to the year for Blues fans I'm sure, when they were pumped up so much and looking so good at one point. I'm on record on here with my prediction they wouldn't play finals this year, it just takes years and years when you are coming out off such a low base imo. For every step forward, like they undoubtedly took this year, there are steps back along the way.

I expect them to take a step back next year and probably finish a couple of rungs lower- simply because the natural improvement from the young ones won't quite cancel the decline in output from the old firm. Still keeping my long standing prediction that they will move up after that and be playing finals around 2023, and get to a prelim in 2025-2026.

basically when Walsh is moving into his prime and Cripps is the elder statesman, that's when their team balance will allow a premiership window open.

 

[Coona Blues]

First thing that needs to happen is to thank Simpson Betts & Murphy for everything and give them a farewell game this week.

We are rebuilding and need to give the future a chance

Teague needs to step up and make the hard decisions

You probably won't answer, but I would love to know if it is just your opinion or perhaps a feel from the young ones internally that they are
"ready" to step up.

 

[Soapy V]

You probably won't answer, but I would love to know if it is just your opinion or perhaps a feel from the young ones internally that they are
"ready" to step up.

Both

 

[Soapy V]

good get as a player no doubt, but playing dirty to get him may hurt when it comes to future trade deals. Wouldn't expect too many clubs to deal with Carlton in good faith for a while.

Disappointing end to the year for Blues fans I'm sure, when they were pumped up so much and looking so good at one point. I'm on record on here with my prediction they wouldn't play finals this year, it just takes years and years when you are coming out off such a low base imo. For every step forward, like they undoubtedly took this year, there are steps back along the way.

I expect them to take a step back next year and probably finish a couple of rungs lower- simply because the natural improvement from the young ones won't quite cancel the decline in output from the old firm. Still keeping my long standing prediction that they will move up after that and be playing finals around 2023, and get to a prelim in 2025-2026.

basically when Walsh is moving into his prime and Cripps is the elder statesman, that's when their team balance will allow a premiership window open.

SOS did deal for Martin and he isn’t there. GCS were offered good deal and knocked it back

If we slip back it will be because of coaching/development not talent. It’s there. Just needs to be fit and focussed and given the chance. Just so important to now give them the opportunity

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

good get as a player no doubt, but playing dirty to get him may hurt when it comes to future trade deals. Wouldn't expect too many clubs to deal with Carlton in good faith for a while.

Disappointing end to the year for Blues fans I'm sure, when they were pumped up so much and looking so good at one point. I'm on record on here with my prediction they wouldn't play finals this year, it just takes years and years when you are coming out off such a low base imo. For every step forward, like they undoubtedly took this year, there are steps back along the way.

I expect them to take a step back next year and probably finish a couple of rungs lower- simply because the natural improvement from the young ones won't quite cancel the decline in output from the old firm. Still keeping my long standing prediction that they will move up after that and be playing finals around 2023, and get to a prelim in 2025-2026.

basically when Walsh is moving into his prime and Cripps is the elder statesman, that's when their team balance will allow a premiership window open.

We offered reasonable compensation for an uncontracted effective 2s player who had requested a trade 2 years in a row.

By all reports we had no problems negotiating with Sydney for Papley, we completed deals with Hawthorn, Essendon and Adelaide, and we even did a live trade with GC. Outside of that, we have a new list manager anyway.

Next year will be much of the same unless we bring in 1 or 2 A graders in their prime to help support Cripps and co. Curnow will be a huge addition and there’s still 4-5 others to come in depending on how the match committee see it. We are apart of that group of sides in the 6-14 bracket where anything could happen. The good news is we are trending upwards and not stagnating like some of those teams. How far we’ll go is up for debate and a lot will rest on this off seasons decisions.

 

[PetterdHoisted]

We offered reasonable compensation for an uncontracted effective 2s player who had requested a trade 2 years in a row.

By all reports we had no problems negotiating with Sydney for Papley, we completed deals with Hawthorn, Essendon and Adelaide, and we even did a live trade with GC. Outside of that, we have a new list manager anyway.

Next year will be much of the same unless we bring in 1 or 2 A graders in their prime to help support Cripps and co. Curnow will be a huge addition and there’s still 4-5 others to come in depending on how the match committee see it. We are apart of that group of sides in the 6-14 bracket where anything could happen. The good news is we are trending upwards and not stagnating like some of those teams. How far we’ll go is up for debate and a lot will rest on this off seasons decisions.

yeah I agree, on the up, but just saying be wary of expectations of smoothly increasing curve. Just looking at Melb and Richmond in terms of coming off rock bottom in 2009.

Keeping Teague, even if there is a backward step, is essential.

KPPs are in place, so I have no doubt they will play regular finals middle of this decade.

 

[MSB ROYS]

Improvement is not linear and there is a good chance that Carlton will finish in the top 8 next year (just need to be more consistent over whole game). People talking about trading Cripps need psychiatric counseling.

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

yeah I agree, on the up, but just saying be wary of expectations of smoothly increasing curve. Just looking at Melb and Richmond in terms of coming off rock bottom in 2009.

Keeping Teague, even if there is a backward step, is essential.

KPPs are in place, so I have no doubt they will play regular finals middle of this decade.

I’m confident there is enough on the list to make finals consistently once they all hit their prime. The bulk of our talent is still relatively young.

Not ready to even think about flags and top 4 yet. Much tougher to break into that category.

 

[InFaganWeTrust]

Both teams are fairly uninspiring, like all teams they have some good talent, I'd say Carlton are a fair bit behind, all 4 of Kreuzer/Murphy/Gibbs/Simpson are almost having career best years, and 2 of them are nearing retirement with Gibbs most likely heading back home at the end of the year, they'll also most likely lose Casboult setting them back even further.

Both Brisbane and Carlton play a gamestyle that cloggs up games, more so trying to limit damage and then counter punch when they can and drag other teams down to there level.

Brisbanes midfield group are in that 27-28-29 age bracket, couple years of good football left and then they'll be left with not much, gun spine with Andrews, McStay Schache and Hipwood, they'll need to find a replacement for Martin in the ruck as he's quality and is very underrated in the broader footballing community.

 

[Joao]

Whilst it is hilarious, at some point Carlton is going to get it right whether it is Teague or another coach. Too much quality in the spine to be bollocks for much longer.

 

[jonnobackpocket]

I think Brisbane are ahead.

 

[iBeng]

I think Brisbane are ahead.

You say that, and I don't disagree, but Carlton flogged us last year and there's every chance they can win this weekend.

 

[La Dispute]

You say that, and I don't disagree, but Carlton flogged us last year and there's every chance they can win this weekend.

I doubt it. We are just going through the motions, and looking keen to just close the season out.

Wouldn’t be at all surprised to see guys like Honey, Cottrell and Philp back in the team and one or two of our few quality players rested.

 

[iBeng]

I doubt it. We are just going through the motions, and looking keen to just close the season out.

Wouldn’t be at all surprised to see guys like Honey, Cottrell and Philp back in the team and one or two of our few quality players rested.

From what Fagans said I don't forsee us resting anyone before the bye so yeah...but then again, we only beat North by the skin of our teeth.

 

[a mayes ing]

You say that, and I don't disagree, but Carlton flogged us last year and there's every chance they can win this weekend.

So what if they do win. All it means is that they were better on the day. People just need to look at the ladder and it clearly shows that we are miles ahead.
Also, for posters saying that they are only 1 year behind - last year we were 2nd on the ladder. I think Carlton are more like 2 or even 3 years behind

 

[jonnobackpocket]

You say that, and I don't disagree, but Carlton flogged us last year and there's every chance they can win this weekend.

They can win by 29 goals this weekend and we still be well and truely ahead of where they are.

 

[iBeng]

Ah s**t, I made the mistake of having an opinion.

Back in my box!

 

[FairKouta]

So what if they do win. All it means is that they were better on the day. People just need to look at the ladder and it clearly shows that we are miles ahead.
Also, for posters saying that they are only 1 year behind - last year we were 2nd on the ladder. I think Carlton are more like 2 or even 3 years behind

You are being generous. Way behind brisbane

 

[jonnobackpocket]

Ah sh*t, I made the mistake of having an opinion.

Back in my box!

I don’t think it was wrong as far as this week, could go either way although I think we will win. Just more if they do doesn’t mean much from an overall point of view.

 

[Rich01]

I’m tipping at least four of SOS retreads leaving the club at the end of the season.

Looking back, his talent identification of recycled players has been well below average.

 

[WWSD]

Add a fit C.Curnow, Marchbank and Fisher in that Carlton team and they’ll be much better overall. Cripps and Docherty were playing injured this year. Those two should be better next year.

Another pre-season for Walsh, Setterfield, De Koning and Cunningham. I don’t think they’ll be that bad. There’s only one thing holding Carlton back, inconsistency.

 

[HBF]

So what if they do win. All it means is that they were better on the day. People just need to look at the ladder and it clearly shows that we are miles ahead.
Also, for posters saying that they are only 1 year behind - last year we were 2nd on the ladder. I think Carlton are more like 2 or even 3 years behind

At the bare minimum we are two years behind the Lions.
If Carlton can improve in a number of areas then I think we are a chance to play finals next year.

 

[jackess]

Add a fit C.Curnow, Marchbank and Fisher in that Carlton team and they’ll be much better overall. Cripps and Docherty were playing injured this year. Those two should be better next year.

Another pre-season for Walsh, Setterfield, De Koning and Cunningham. I don’t think they’ll be that bad. There’s only one thing holding Carlton back, inconsistency.

The playing list probably isn't the issue

 

[Gethelred]

God, this thread is an open sewer.

Brisbane is in the top 4; quite ******* clearly - regardless of where each rebuild started - they're ahead of Carlton. Brisbane also had the advantage throughout their rebuild of having a much deeper set of midfield support; for the majority of their build they've had the likes of Robinson, Beams, Rockliff, Zorko able to run through there, with the quality that has left (Beams and Rockliff) being replaced both internally and by Neale. They've had the luxury of a genuine home ground to grind for wins when they were down, and they've taken the advantage it has gathered in full.

This is not to denigrate their build or their progress; you play the hand you're dealt, and they've played it pretty well.

Carlton, on the other hand, did not have that level of support through the middle of the ground. Cripps, Murphy, Gibbs, Kreuzer; Gibbs ****ed off 3 years ago, leaving us exceptionally bare in terms of contested support, Murphy playing inside a stoppage is shoving a square peg in a round hole, and Kreuzer aside from being borderline AA in 2017 hasn't been on the park. We then proceeded to compound the issue by drafting or trading in at roughly 1 KPP for 1 small every year since until last; this left us vulnerable to injury as we lacked the depth in smalls. And boy, did we get hit by injury in 2018. One of the understated things Brisbane has done extremely well is their ability to keep their players on the park through their first 50 games; they've been uncannily good at it, and this is not something that is luck related. Good management is good management, and it is here as much as anywhere else that they've shone over Carlton. Good injury management and rehab mean increased continuity, and increased familiarity with each other; this has paid off for Brisbane in spades.

The reason comparing the two rebuilds is worthwhile is to look at what worked in either situation and what didn't, making conclusions about how a successful rebuild should look and/or following the progress. But I don't see that when I'm looking in here. I see interteam politics, from traditional rival supporters, that belongs in the Bay or in a team banter thread rather than as part of a serious discussion. Funny, that people like GROTTO suddenly find it pertinent to jump into this thread after the weekend; no happenstance he forms an opinion on this now.

Frankly, I'm unsurprised, given how often main board threads degrade into pissing contests. Still, it's disappointing to say the least.

 

[AndrewShawble]

At the bare minimum we are two years behind the Lions.
If Carlton can improve in a number of areas then I think we are a chance to play finals next year.

Carlton have the list tbh, the messaging and coaching isn’t getting the best out of them.

A fit Curnow will change a lot of things also.