Is the MCG a big advantage on Grand Final Day for Victorians against Interstate Sides? /Are Interstaters advantaged during the home and away season?

[Billy ray]

if its a vic team v a non-vic team grand final, both grand final clubs should spend the thurs and friday nights in hotels in melbourne - they do if two non-victorian teams (eg syd v west coast in mid 2000s)

if its two Vic teams v eachother, then both sets of teams can stay at home as no point.

surely noone can argue against that?

 

[RichLeMonde]

Dude .. prove these things don't effect the players. Lol

I believe Fremantle have an unfair advantage because they have special psychic powers. The onus of proof is on you to prove that they don’t because it is just obviously, self-evidently true, and I don’t have to provide any positive evidence. Am I doing it right?

 

[RichLeMonde]

if its a vic team v a non-vic team grand final, both grand final clubs should spend the thurs and friday nights in hotels in melbourne - they do if two non-victorian teams (eg syd v west coast in mid 2000s)

if its two Vic teams v eachother, then both sets of teams can stay at home as no point.

surely noone can argue against that?

No one could argue against it if there was any evidence that sleeping in a hotel had a demonstrable effect on team performance. Might wait for that evidence before getting behind this idea tho.

 

[kranky al]

You guys seem to take it as a given that playing at the G on GF day is a big advantage for tenants. Given the crowd neutrality on Gf day, and given that the week is disrupted for both clubs due to Brownlow, GF parade etc, what do you believe creates such an advantage?

Sleeping in your own bed vs a hotel?

Ground dimensions?

Psychological benefit of familiarity with the ground?

Physical effects of not flying at the start of the week?

The onus is on you guys to prove these things have an effect, especially given that we are talking about professional athletes who are well used to all of the above. Given the exactly 50% record of interstate teams vs Vics in GFs, I’d say you’ve got away to go.

so basically all these other sports around the world from premier league to bundesliga - from gridiron to nba - a league to sheffield shield. the world cups of soccer, cricket, rugby league, union etc etc

that all have some way of allowing for hga. whether that be highest seed gets the gf or the extra game at home in a series or moving the gf every year/ series.


are wasting their time.

 

[Final Siren]

You guys seem to take it as a given that playing at the G on GF day is a big advantage for tenants. Given the crowd neutrality on Gf day, and given that the week is disrupted for both clubs due to Brownlow, GF parade etc, what do you believe creates such an advantage?

Sleeping in your own bed vs a hotel?

Ground dimensions?

Psychological benefit of familiarity with the ground?

Physical effects of not flying at the start of the week?

The onus is on you guys to prove these things have an effect, especially given that we are talking about professional athletes who are well used to all of the above. Given the exactly 50% record of interstate teams vs Vics in GFs, I’d say you’ve got away to go.

The way it seems to work is you start by figuring out which measure your team was disadvantaged in, then assume that is a powerful factor affecting the outcome of all matches.

The measure can be anything!
- free kicks
- suspensions
- injuries
- days break
- travel before match
- travel after match
- accumulated travel over a season
- location of pillow on night before games (home vs hotel)
- games played at home ground
- dimensions of home ground
- timing of byes
- opponents' timing of byes
- COLA
- targeted rule changes
- AFL punishments for drug code breaches
- anything oh god anything but actual team performance

 

[kranky al]

Seems you are fixated on our 2017 run.

Would you think the same about the Eagles this year if they saluted?

Outside of Optus you have beaten 13, 15, 16, 18 and the Saints.

And lost to four of the five clubs that are in the eight that you played away from your home ground.

yeah if qld got covid badly and they moved the finals to optus id say we were kissed on the dick by a fairy.

so far we havnt shown much away from home. to then postulate after winning a gf at home, that we would have won anywhere would be utter bullshit.

we have shown zero signs of beating quality opposition away - the chances of us suddenly getting magical powers in a gf are laughable.

mate we know when we are challenging for a gf because we beat good teams away.

 

[RichLeMonde]

so basically all these other sports around the world from premier league to bundesliga - from gridiron to nba - a league to sheffield shield. the world cups of soccer, cricket, rugby league, union etc etc

that all have some way of allowing for hga. whether that be highest seed gets the gf or the extra game at home in a series or moving the gf every year/ series.


are wasting their time.

I think we're talking about 2 different things.

Yes, all those sports/leagues choose to reward the highest seed by giving them a particular advantage in a GF/Finals series (playing at home including one-sided crowded support).

The AFL doesn't do that - it seeks to neutralise the crowd advantage on GF day by having the same ticketing arrangements for both teams, and it also prioritises maximising attendance, rather than rewarding finishing top of the table.

You could make an argument that the AFL should reward the highest finishing team with a home ground GF with a one-sided crowd, I suppose. I think there are good reasons not to do that though. There is evidence that umpires are affected by one-sided crowds and pay more free kicks (penalties/fouls in other sports), which creates a HGA that is actively unfair. So I think there's good reason for the AFL GF to have an evenly split crowd. If that is the case, then it doesn't matter too much where it is played. If they had big enough stadiums around Australia, I wouldn't have a problem with rotating the venue. If the crowd was split evenly, I certainly wouldn't have a whinge about it being unfair if my team played in a GF in WA or SA, as if staying in a hotel or flying for a few hours a week beforehand would somehow cripple my team and rob it of a fair chance to win.

 

[Billy ray]

No one could argue against it if there was any evidence that sleeping in a hotel had a demonstrable effect on team performance. Might wait for that evidence before getting behind this idea tho.

how do you get evidence for this?

 

[Coach_Required]

It's an advantage for a Vic team to play the Grand Final at the G, you cant deny it. However its much harder for the Vic teams to get themselves into a position to grab that advantage. You really need to be a dominate side to take full advantage of that.

Non Vic teams have a much greater home ground advantage during the season, if they are good enough they will win the majority of their home matches 11 or 12 games, they only need to win 1 or 2 more to make finals. If they can pinch a few away wins along the way they set themselves up for top 4.

Top 4 is where its at, you make top 4 in a normal season and you are almost there, same for Vic teams I think what you find at the moment in recent seasons a lot of the Vic teams are really poor so the good Vic teams are getting an advantage. E.G, Carlton, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Essendon have really struggled at stages.

I believe when teams fail to capitalize on their winning periods its an easy cop out to just blame fixtures, last year for example West Coast had top 4 in the bag but somehow lost a home game to Hawthorn which pushed them to 5th. That loss really stuffed their hopes of going back to back. In 2018 they finished top 4 got those 2 home finals and it made it easier to make the Grand Final which helped them win the flag, they were a good enough side to then beat Collingwood at the G and thoroughly deserved it.

No Grand Final is easy to win, teams still have to be very good to win a flag and sometimes you need a bit of luck especially with injuries.

 

[bh90210fan]

It's an advantage for a Vic team to play the Grand Final at the G, you cant deny it. However its much harder for the Vic teams to get themselves into a position to grab that advantage. You really need to be a dominate side to take full advantage of that.

Non Vic teams have a much greater home ground advantage during the season, if they are good enough they will win the majority of their home matches 11 or 12 games, they only need to win 1 or 2 more to make finals. If they can pinch a few away wins along the way they set themselves up for top 4.

Top 4 is where its at, you make top 4 in a normal season and you are almost there, same for Vic teams I think what you find at the moment in recent seasons a lot of the Vic teams are really poor so the good Vic teams are getting an advantage. E.G, Carlton, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Essendon have really struggled at stages.

I believe when teams fail to capitalize on their winning periods its an easy cop out to just blame fixtures, last year for example West Coast had top 4 in the bag but somehow lost a home game to Hawthorn which pushed them to 5th. That loss really stuffed their hopes of going back to back. In 2018 they finished top 4 got those 2 home finals and it made it easier to make the Grand Final which helped them win the flag, they were a good enough side to then beat Collingwood at the G and thoroughly deserved it.

No Grand Final is easy to win, teams still have to be very good to win a flag and sometimes you need a bit of luck especially with injuries.

Top 4 doesn’t cut it though. Non Victorian teams need to finish top 2 to guarantee 2 home finals before traveling to Melbourne.

 

[RichLeMonde]

how do you get evidence for this?

I suppose if you were trying to approach it scientifically you would try to control all variables except one - the hotel sleep. So you would do it in a controlled environment (not AFL games), where you had 2 groups (home sleepers and hotel sleepers), who were otherwise similar, and measured their athletic and skill performance on standardised tests the day after their sleep. You could do a 'sleep study', which measures the quality and amount of sleep, but you would also have to prove that decreased sleep quality actually affected performance, which is not an automatic given. If you tried to measure it in actual AFL players you would need to measure actual performance-relevant outcomes - like, I don't know, distance covered, goal-kicking accuracy, disposal efficiency. Given that all of those things are highly confounded by other variables (like the quality of the oppo, whether it was raining, etc), you would need to get a huge amount of data so that all those other factors evened out. That would probably take years. So I think a controlled study would probably be more realistic.

 

[Run n Spread]

What seems to escape people is finals are not home and away. Tickets are allocated evenly.
e.g. If Geelong were to play Collingwood/Richmond @ KP at least 50% would be opposition fans.
So crowd is taken out to a degree. Then you have travel issues/ground dimensions.

If a side has to travel weeks on end then fatigue can catch them (GWS last year) otherwise WCE (2018) it is just a flight for the first time in a few weeks. (WCE out ran Collingwood in 2018)

Some advantage is provided by familiarity.

Not all that much imo. Guess we will see this year. I actually think Brisbane will go out in straight sets but if they did make a Granny not sure it will be as big advantage as a home and away. Half the crowd if they play Collingwood/Richmond would be opposition due to their massive supporter bases.

One issue is Perth teams Eastern sea board. But that is more just do the sheer difficulty of getting there.

 

[Coach_Required]

Top 4 doesn’t cut it though. Non Victorian teams need to finish top 2 to guarantee 2 home finals before traveling to Melbourne.

Isnt that the same for all clubs though?

 

[Billy ray]

I suppose if you were trying to approach it scientifically you would try to control all variables except one - the hotel sleep. So you would do it in a controlled environment (not AFL games), where you had 2 groups (home sleepers and hotel sleepers), who were otherwise similar, and measured their athletic and skill performance on standardised tests the day after their sleep. You could do a 'sleep study', which measures the quality and amount of sleep, but you would also have to prove that decreased sleep quality actually affected performance, which is not an automatic given. If you tried to measure it in actual AFL players you would need to measure actual performance-relevant outcomes - like, I don't know, distance covered, goal-kicking accuracy, disposal efficiency. Given that all of those things are highly confounded by other variables (like the quality of the oppo, whether it was raining, etc), you would need to get a huge amount of data so that all those other factors evened out. That would probably take years. So I think a controlled study would probably be more realistic.

yeh, or you just do it as having both teams in the same environment for a neutral game is ideal

 

[RichLeMonde]

It's an advantage for a Vic team to play the Grand Final at the G, you cant deny it.

That's the thing though. The argument for the advantage always boils down to : 'it's obvious. It's self-evident. You can't deny it. Everyone knows it'. Sorry, but that doesn't cut it. All those statements just mean that the person saying them believes that they're true. Where's the actual evidence? It's not like Vic teams have a lop-sided win count in GFs against non-Vics.

 

[RichLeMonde]

yeh, or you just do it as having both teams in the same environment for a neutral game is ideal

Yeah, you're right in the sense that no one could object that it would be somehow unfair to put both teams in hotels. It just seems like a bit of a waste of money and would take up hotel beds that interstate fans might want!

 

[Coach_Required]

That's the thing though. The argument for the advantage always boils down to : 'it's obvious. It's self-evident. You can't deny it. Everyone knows it'. Sorry, but that doesn't cut it. All those statements just mean that the person saying them believes that they're true. Where's the actual evidence? It's not like Vic teams have a lop-sided win count in GFs against non-Vics.

So if we had to play a Grand Final in Adelaide in a normal season against one of their teams you wouldn't think there is an advantage?

 

[Billy ray]

Yeah, you're right in the sense that no one could object that it would be somehow unfair to put both teams in hotels. It just seems like a bit of a waste of money and would take up hotel beds that interstate fans might want!

given the amount of money the afl waste in a normal year, just do it for the sake of what $10k or $20k or even $50k?
agree about hotel beds taking away from fans - good point
tho these days fans can use airbnbs etc

 

[RichLeMonde]

So if we had to play a Grand Final in Adelaide in a normal season against one of their teams you wouldn't think there is an advantage?

If the ticketing was the same as for a normal GF, and both teams' fans were well represented and there wasn't a one-sided crowd influencing the umpires, no I wouldn't.

I actually think this season has the potential for the most unfair GF ever, if Port finish top but end up playing Brisbane in the GF at the Gabba and with a completley one-sided Brisbane crowd. From the research that I've read on this (yes, I get *n bored at work), it's one-sided crowds influencing umpires/refs that are the main driver of HGA.

 

[bh90210fan]

Isnt that the same for all clubs though?

Well, Melbourne clubs don’t have to travel for a grand final obviously and MCG tenants are likely to be gifted hga during a finals series. Big difference

 

[RichLeMonde]

Well, Melbourne clubs don’t have to travel for a grand final obviously and MCG tenants are likely to be gifted hga during a finals series. Big difference

Yeah but you're ignoring that if a Vic team finishes top 2 we can easily play a home prelim against another team on their home deck (also our home deck). Do you think Richmond (finishing top of the ladder) were advantaged playing Collingwood at the MCG in a prelim in 2018, compared to if WC were in our shoes playing Collingwood at Optus?

I think you're right about top 2 being the key for non-Vics. Interstate teams have the advantage in first 3 weeks of finals over Vics if they finish top 2, since they can't have the scenario that Richmond had in 2018 (unless 2 Perth/Adelaide/Sydney teams finish top 4). Vics can have an advantage over instates in the first 3 weeks of finals if they finish 3-4 though (for example, Collingwood, finishing 3rd, benefited from playing Richmond at our shared home ground, whereas an interstate team finishing 3-4 obviously can't get that advantage).

 

[Coach_Required]

Well, Melbourne clubs don’t have to travel for a grand final obviously and MCG tenants are likely to be gifted hga during a finals series. Big difference

but you were just talking about finals in your previous post not the Grand Final?

You do realize home Vic Clubs have to share seating allocations right? A Richmond v Collingwood/Essendon/Hawthorn/Carlton/Melbourne final isn't just Richmond supporters because it's our "Home" game yeah? Or are you just talking about the times when Richmond / Collingwood etc play Geelong in which 30 odd thousand cats fans still attend?

 

[bh90210fan]

Yeah but you're ignoring that if a Vic team finishes top 2 we can easily play a home prelim against another team on their home deck (also our home deck). Do you think Richmond (finishing top of the ladder) were advantaged playing Collingwood at the MCG in a prelim in 2018, compared to if WC were in our shoes playing Collingwood at Optus?

I think you're right about top 2 being the key for non-Vics. Interstate teams have the advantage in first 3 weeks of finals over Vics if they finish top 2, since they can't have the scenario that Richmond had in 2018 (unless 2 Perth/Adelaide/Sydney teams finish top 4). Vics can have an advantage over instates in the first 3 weeks of finals if they finish 3-4 though (for example, Collingwood, finishing 3rd, benefited from playing Richmond at our shared home ground, whereas an interstate team finishing 3-4 obviously can't get that advantage).

You were advantaged by only having to navigate neutral games all the way to a premiership. Top 2 for us still means winning on the other side of the country. Ill concede that a non Victorian side is likelier to make a gf if they finish top 2, but a mcg tenant is more likely to win one. And top 2 is a pretty big mountain to climb, we don’t get gifted advantages in finals, it’s top 2 or bust for non Vics

 

[bh90210fan]

but you were just talking about finals in your previous post not the Grand Final?

You do realize home Vic Clubs have to share seating allocations right? A Richmond v Collingwood/Essendon/Hawthorn/Carlton/Melbourne final isn't just Richmond supporters because it's our "Home" game yeah? Or are you just talking about the times when Richmond / Collingwood etc play Geelong in which 30 odd thousand cats fans still attend?

I did mention traveling to Melbourne in my earlier post, obviously referring to the grand final. You’ve gone on a tangent with crowds here, I realise a final between 2 mcg tenants are nuetral games, not sure what you’re on about

 

[Coach_Required]

I did mention traveling to Melbourne in my earlier post, obviously referring to the grand final. You’ve gone on a tangent with crowds here, I realise a final between 2 mcg tenants are nuetral games, not sure what you’re on about

It's not just MCG tenants though, Dogs, Saints fans all can attend MCG finals matches. That's my point a Non Vic team home final advantages that side far more than a home Vic final against other Vic teams which you are blatantly disregarding as a non issue.