Draft Watcher Knightmare 2020 Draft Almanac

[Smythe]

Keep your eye on Sam Banks from Tassie. Won the U/16 medal at the championships last year. Has been playing senior footy for Clarence this season and has looked comfortable. Got 34 possessions yesterday in his school footy GF playing against a few draft hopefuls for this year.
Smooth mover, silky skills both sides of the body and a leader. Only just turned 17. One to watch.

Some of us are already watching

 

[Knightmare]

What do essendon need out of the draft and who are the prospects to fill those eoles especially if they pick within the 5-7 range km

Essendon are dropping in a hurry.

Will Phillips if there is an easy choice as that best midfielder there.

If Phillips isn't there, Finlay Macrae is the best there in my view. If there is an opportunity to move down a few picks to something like a 10-15 pick, Caleb Poulter would be an ideal fit as a tall ball winning mid with some power if Essendon are particularly specific in wanting that taller, ball winning mid.

 

[Swerving Irv]

Essendon are dropping in a hurry.

Will Phillips if there is an easy choice as that best midfielder there.

If Phillips isn't there, Finlay Macrae is the best there in my view. If there is an opportunity to move down a few picks to something like a 10-15 pick, Caleb Poulter would be an ideal fit as a tall ball winning mid with some power if Essendon are particularly specific in wanting that taller, ball winning mid.

G'day KM, would you look to take pick 5 and bank it if you were Essendon or would you try and split it for two picks in the teens and grab the likes of Poulter and Ford? I feel that this year some absolute guns are going to be completely overlooked in the first 10-15 picks.

 

[ADL9798]

Correct me if I’m wrong but with the ladder as it stands, after Fremantle’s points deficit is applied, I believe the Crows second selection (tied to GWS ladder position) sits at #8. Potentially pick #9 assuming bids for Ugle-Hagan & Campbell come in.

I see you currently have Thilthorpe at #6 in your power rankings, what do you think the odds are that he slides through to our second selection?

 

[Knightmare]

G'day KM, would you look to take pick 5 and bank it if you were Essendon or would you try and split it for two picks in the teens and grab the likes of Poulter and Ford? I feel that this year some absolute guns are going to be completely overlooked in the first 10-15 picks.

I'd use the pick and take Will Phillips (assuming he's there). He's the best midfielder in the draft.

Moving down for a Poulter in the 10-15 range would also make sense for Essendon if okay waiting on someone who is likely to need at least a year to develop.

Correct me if I’m wrong but with the ladder as it stands, after Fremantle’s points deficit is applied, I believe the Crows second selection (tied to GWS ladder position) sits at #8. Potentially pick #9 assuming bids for Ugle-Hagan & Campbell come in.

I see you currently have Thilthorpe at #6 in your power rankings, what do you think the odds are that he slides through to our second selection?

It would be a surprise if Thilthorpe doesn't feature inside the top-5. There are others I rate more highly, but as we speak he's one of a few pick 1 contenders.

Fremantle are in deficit so they will be moving back. As things stand, that GWS pick would be ahead of the Fremantle pick. How many selections depends potentially in part on the bidding and how that moves things. They have 265 points to make up which will move them back a few spots.

 

[BigAlpha3]

Simply put, who do freo take in the draft with their first pick.

Considering the pick is likely to be mid teens with bids, deficit etc


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Knightmare]

Simply put, who do freo take in the draft with their first pick.

Considering the pick is likely to be mid teens with bids, deficit etc


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

Finlay Macrae would be a good midfield addition if available. He'd be my pick.

Archie Perkins would make sense if there as another name and has a lot of talent.

Nathan O'Driscoll as a local talent I also see in that range receiving strong consideration. He can fit outside. I imagine he'll be the most widely linked to the Dockers as we move closer to the draft.

 

[adonski]

Greetings KM, who do you see the Dees selecting with their first pick? (Currently Hawthorn's second rounder)

 

[Knightmare]

Greetings KM, who do you see the Dees selecting with their first pick? (Currently Hawthorn's second rounder)

Unless there is a notable slider, Tasmanian Sam Collins could be a fit around that point as a general defender. A plug and play type who can limit his direct opponents influence but also is an excellent intercepter.

 

[Dockeroo]

What do you think of Eddie Ford? Seems to have a lot of upside

 

[danielG]

What do you think of Eddie Ford? Seems to have a lot of upside

KM, is your board your anticipation of how the players will fall on draft night or more in line with players you yourself are judging to be best selections in order?
You break away from the popular consensus which makes for great reading but I am hoping to know what you think might be in order the top 10 picks on draft night (considering team needs etc) ? As a Hawk who would you think would be the number one target for pick 3 assuming that's the pick we take to the draft.. The consensus seems to be Thilthorpe at our pick which would be one that doesn't excite me personally.. I'd prefer we take the best midfielder.

 

[space_cowboy]

Hey KM.

Will you be reviewing the father-son/academy prospects this year?

I'm interesting to know what you think of Kobi George and Deakyn Smith.

 

[Knightmare]

What do you think of Eddie Ford? Seems to have a lot of upside

Strong mark aerially and has hops. Good tackler and really puts the effort into that side of his game. Moves well and has some evasion. Skills good. So there are some tools.

I have Ford around the 30 mark in my own rankings.

Late first - second round is his rough range.

KM, is your board your anticipation of how the players will fall on draft night or more in line with players you yourself are judging to be best selections in order?
You break away from the popular consensus which makes for great reading but I am hoping to know what you think might be in order the top 10 picks on draft night (considering team needs etc) ? As a Hawk who would you think would be the number one target for pick 3 assuming that's the pick we take to the draft.. The consensus seems to be Thilthorpe at our pick which would be one that doesn't excite me personally.. I'd prefer we take the best midfielder.

My power rankings are how I personally rate players and projects how good they will be over their careers.

eg. Henry is viewed as likely to go somewhere around pick 10 but you won't find him inside my top-28 power rankings which I released on YouTube.

Then there are others such as Cardillo who I rate inside my top-25 and he wasn't invited to the National Combine, and is only one of several I rate highly who won't get picked early in the draft.

Hey KM.

Will you be reviewing the father-son/academy prospects this year?

I'm interesting to know what you think of Kobi George and Deakyn Smith.

I may have to do a f/s and academy review perhaps for YouTube in the leadup to the draft. There is enough of them so I'd probably be negligent in not covering them in some capacity at some point.

George and Smith both have wheels.

From my piece on ESPN 4/9/19 I noted of George: "Breaking the lines, demonstrating the speed and agility to get by opponents, winning loose balls and bursting away." They're the things he brings to the table.

Smith similarly has shown his speed in game and also seems good aerially.

Both have some attributes to suggest there should be some interest in them as players with developable traits, without nearly having complete games.

I don't believe either were invited to the national combine, but I do see both of them as possible late/rookie considerations.

 

[space_cowboy]

I may have to do a f/s and academy review perhaps for YouTube in the leadup to the draft. There is enough of them so I'd probably be negligent in not covering them in some capacity at some point.

George and Smith both have wheels.

From my piece on ESPN 4/9/19 I noted of George: "Breaking the lines, demonstrating the speed and agility to get by opponents, winning loose balls and bursting away." They're the things he brings to the table.

Smith similarly has shown his speed in game and also seems good aerially.

Both have some attributes to suggest there should be some interest in them as players with developable traits, without nearly having complete games.

I don't believe either were invited to the national combine, but I do see both of them as possible late/rookie considerations.
[/QUOTE]

Thanks for that, KM. They both sound like just what Melbourne need...

 

[jastra jac]

Hey KM,

What are your thoughts on Jack Carroll? I noticed you don't have him in your power rankings.

 

[CFC_#17]

Hey KM,

What are the chances of Will Papley being picked up and is he any good

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM,

What are your thoughts on Jack Carroll? I noticed you don't have him in your power rankings.

Carroll is in my top-40 and has had a pretty decent season. Good height, good mover, good ball user.

Why is he lower on my board than some other boards?

I like my contested ball winners. Win too low of a % contested, even if you play an outside and I find their games don't translate consistently to AFL level. It's that indicator that correlates most with having a game that translates. That doesn't mean there aren't the likes of Brad Hill who have succeeded despite that, but those exceptions are few and far between.

Hey KM,

What are the chances of Will Papley being picked up and is he any good

My view is Papley is worth a shot. Whether he gets picked I don't know, but I'd consider him late/rookie.

He can provide forward pressure and I see upside to his game, having missing time with injuries.

 

[norf melburn]

Hey KM

What do you think North Melbourne are going to do with their 2 first round picks and the Bombers 2nd round pick?

Do you think Elijah Holland's a risky pick for North Melbourne?

Thanks in advanced!

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM

What do you think North Melbourne are going to do with their 2 first round picks and the Bombers 2nd round pick?

Do you think Elijah Holland's a risky pick for North Melbourne?

Thanks in advanced!

I may be on my own, but I do see Hollands as a risky pick for North Melbourne at 2. Perhaps if Adelaide get pick 2, maybe that's more reasonable, but he's still not my preferred.

I'd be of the opinion that if it's clear Logan McDonald would be gone that I'd look into moving down.

Maybe it's just moving down to that Gold Coast pick and taking Will Phillips and get Phillips and someone else. *Phillips I rate more highly than Hollands but expect will feature a few selections later.

Or maybe it's moving back further in the first round and getting a few picks and/or players.

I'd be exploring options ultimately, not forcing things and getting too concerned if I can't make a deal, but more-so exploring to see if there is an opportunity out there that makes moving pick 2 a winning move. With clubs generally overvaluing first round picks and particularly more-so the higher you get up the board, I could see a club potentially overpaying.

 

[HELMET!]

KM, do you see McDonald (who has been performing strongly) as a star in his prime (55+ goals/year) or as a solid no.1 forward (40-50/year)?

The big forwards in recent years who are top picks that dominate their junior years tend to never reach that height at AFL (Boyd, Schache, Weiderman, McCartney, Wright, Patton). Some of those with obvious external reasons but my point is that the bigger junior forward tends to struggle these days with zoning and bigger opponents.

I know he's dominating a state league as a junior (like hogan) but do you see him capable of working through the zoning and bigger opponents?

If you had to take a guess who of McDonald and JUH would you back to end their career with the higher goal tally?

 

[Knightmare]

KM, do you see McDonald (who has been performing strongly) as a star in his prime (55+ goals/year) or as a solid no.1 forward (40-50/year)?

The big forwards in recent years who are top picks that dominate their junior years tend to never reach that height at AFL (Boyd, Schache, Weiderman, McCartney, Wright, Patton). Some of those with obvious external reasons but my point is that the bigger junior forward tends to struggle these days with zoning and bigger opponents.

I know he's dominating a state league as a junior (like hogan) but do you see him capable of working through the zoning and bigger opponents?

If you had to take a guess who of McDonald and JUH would you back to end their career with the higher goal tally?

McDonald I place in the Jeremy Cameron category. He'll have his 60+ goal years, the way he's projecting, though in the modern game those years won't happen every year.

I've made this bold comment elsewhere, but I'm seeing both McDonald and JUH as having the scope to become the two very best key forwards in the competition. The King's will be that primary competition, but those four I feel will become the premier key forwards in the competition. So that's a narrative to watch down the track once these guys have had their 4 years in the system to know exactly how good they are.

JUH I feel like will have the higher goal tally. JUH close to goal is the closest thing to Buddy as an i50 threat we will see in this next generation. Aerially the only thing that can stop him is if he drops his marks. When isolated 1v1 he's the most dangerous I've seen. JUH I feel like will be that most dynamic goalkicker, while McDonald up the ground I expect will relatively offer more value.

If I was to say any one player could kick more than 80 goals in a season (Fevola was the last in 2009), in the modern game, JUH is that only guy I see those capabilities as being a possibility with.

 

[dinnaz]

McDonald I place in the Jeremy Cameron category. He'll have his 60+ goal years, the way he's projecting, though in the modern game those years won't happen every year.

I've made this bold comment elsewhere, but I'm seeing both McDonald and JUH as having the scope to become the two very best key forwards in the competition. The King's will be that primary competition, but those four I feel will become the premier key forwards in the competition. So that's a narrative to watch down the track once these guys have had their 4 years in the system to know exactly how good they are.

JUH I feel like will have the higher goal tally. JUH close to goal is the closest thing to Buddy as an i50 threat we will see in this next generation. Aerially the only thing that can stop him is if he drops his marks. When isolated 1v1 he's the most dangerous I've seen. JUH I feel like will be that most dynamic goalkicker, while McDonald up the ground I expect will relatively offer more value.

If I was to say any one player could kick more than 80 goals in a season (Fevola was the last in 2009), in the modern game, JUH is that only guy I see those capabilities as being a possibility with.

Josh Kennedy 2016

 

[flipper83]

McDonald I place in the Jeremy Cameron category. He'll have his 60+ goal years, the way he's projecting, though in the modern game those years won't happen every year.

I've made this bold comment elsewhere, but I'm seeing both McDonald and JUH as having the scope to become the two very best key forwards in the competition. The King's will be that primary competition, but those four I feel will become the premier key forwards in the competition. So that's a narrative to watch down the track once these guys have had their 4 years in the system to know exactly how good they are.

JUH I feel like will have the higher goal tally. JUH close to goal is the closest thing to Buddy as an i50 threat we will see in this next generation. Aerially the only thing that can stop him is if he drops his marks. When isolated 1v1 he's the most dangerous I've seen. JUH I feel like will be that most dynamic goalkicker, while McDonald up the ground I expect will relatively offer more value.

If I was to say any one player could kick more than 80 goals in a season (Fevola was the last in 2009), in the modern game, JUH is that only guy I see those capabilities as being a possibility with.

Defenders in the AFL are much more adept at chopping arms, body spoils and blocking jumps then tac cup defenders.
Do you think Jamara will still be able to translate his game to AFL level?

 

[Mojorisin]

McDonald I place in the Jeremy Cameron category. He'll have his 60+ goal years, the way he's projecting, though in the modern game those years won't happen every year.

I've made this bold comment elsewhere, but I'm seeing both McDonald and JUH as having the scope to become the two very best key forwards in the competition. The King's will be that primary competition, but those four I feel will become the premier key forwards in the competition. So that's a narrative to watch down the track once these guys have had their 4 years in the system to know exactly how good they are.

JUH I feel like will have the higher goal tally. JUH close to goal is the closest thing to Buddy as an i50 threat we will see in this next generation. Aerially the only thing that can stop him is if he drops his marks. When isolated 1v1 he's the most dangerous I've seen. JUH I feel like will be that most dynamic goalkicker, while McDonald up the ground I expect will relatively offer more value.

If I was to say any one player could kick more than 80 goals in a season (Fevola was the last in 2009), in the modern game, JUH is that only guy I see those capabilities as being a possibility with.

The thing I see that will possibly make McDonald kick equal to or more goals then marra is that he has a better goal accuracy. Jamarra has been very wasteful in front of goals so far hopefully he has worked on that in the break

 

[Knightmare]

Josh Kennedy 2016

That's why I said more than 80. Kennedy kicked 80.

Defenders in the AFL are much more adept at chopping arms, body spoils and blocking jumps then tac cup defenders.
Do you think Jamara will still be able to translate his game to AFL level?

Jamarra will easily translate. Why so easily? He dominates in a multitude of ways.

If isolated 1v1 he can be the most dangerous in the comp. Aerially he's unstoppable. He'll create separation on the lead. He'll win it at ground level. So he has the tricks.

In general play. Let him run and jump, and it's over. He's launching and getting hands on the ball and either marking or at worst bringing it to ground. Defences would have to at all times try to stop him getting a run or jump at the ball to have any chance at limiting him. And really that's not realistic all game, every game. You have teams needing to provide substantial support to even give opposition key defenders any chance against him.

He's that Buddy level threat i50. Does it differently. Much more of an aerial assault than Buddy, but he dominates i50 in his own right to as high a level as I've seen in the junior ranks, and unlike those others who have dominated impressively doesn't need to be bigger/taller than everyone else to do it which makes it all the more translatable, as at AFL level, you'll get taller and stronger key defenders, meaning to have an impact every week you need multiple ways to hit the scoreboard which JUH has.

The thing I see that will possibly make McDonald kick equal to or more goals then marra is that he has a better goal accuracy. Jamarra has been very wasteful in front of goals so far hopefully he has worked on that in the break

McDonald's conversion is great it's it.

And you're right when compared to Jamarra, conversion is night and day. JUH doesn't cover the distance consistently, let alone kick reliably. That will be a major area of work for him to clean up.