Analysis The rebuild of Carlton and Brisbane and their future prospects

[Ron The Bear]

Carlton is back up to 6th oldest, where they were from 2014-16. Brisbane still only 11th, where they were in 1999.

Maybe a COVID hiccup for Carlton, but at this stage I got this wrong. Talk in the paper of Betts, Simpson and Casboult being retired, but they only have half a dozen players older than 27. Might be 2-3 years yet before the Blues are back in contention. Slow developers, or just not that good? Time will tell.

Brisbane has surprised me. They have more over-27's than Carlton but aren't reliant on them. Their 23-and-unders from Andrews down are handy. Not sure they can win this year, but at 13-3 they've given themselves a shot.

 

[btdg]

Carlton is back up to 6th oldest, where they were from 2014-16. Brisbane still only 11th, where they were in 1999.

Maybe a COVID hiccup for Carlton, but at this stage I got this wrong. Talk in the paper of Betts, Simpson and Casboult being retired, but they only have half a dozen players older than 27. Might be 2-3 years yet before the Blues are back in contention. Slow developers, or just not that good? Time will tell.

Brisbane has surprised me. They have more over-27's than Carlton but aren't reliant on them. Their 23-and-unders from Andrews down are handy. Not sure they can win this year, but at 13-3 they've given themselves a shot.

Carlton are only the 6th oldest team if you are stupid enough to use the mean age for a team coming off a rebuild that has a polarised list profile of players in their 30s and early 20s.

As a different measure: look at the number of players in each team at the moment aged 23-29 (ie; in their primes) vs less than 23 (developing) and 30+ (decline)

From round 16 (the most recent round available on AFL tables):

Bulldogs 17 prime, 4 developing, 1 declining
Melbourne 17 prime, 4 developing, 1 declining
West Coast 15 prime, 5 developing, 2 declining
St Kilda 15 prime, 5 developing 2 declining
Essendon 15 prime, 5 developing, 2 declining
North - 12 prime, 7 developing, 3 declining
Port - 12 prime, 6 developing, 4 declining
Geelong - 11 prime, 6 developing, 5 declining

Rebuilding teams:
Sydney 12 prime, 8 developing, 2 declining
Hawthorn 11 prime, 10 developing, 1 decline
Fremantle 11 prime, 9 developing, 1 declining
Adelaide 11 prime, 8 developing, 3 declining
Gold Coast 10 prime, 12 developing

GWS: 11 prime, 6 developing, 5 declining

Brisbane: 10 prime, 9 developing, 3 declining
Carlton: 9 prime, 9 developing, 4 declining

The two teams that are most comparable to Carlton are Brisbane (hence this thread) and GWS (an expansion team, but surprisingly similar to Carlton is a few ways). Both outperfeormed Carlton this year - although GWS have been similarly inconsistent and Brisbane have had a solid home state advantage (and are real outliers across the league).

Note Carlton had the fewest prime aged players of any team in the league. Even teams considered rebuilding have more.

2021 is the real test year for Carlton though. 2015 was when we started rebuilding with a clear strategy of trading out players and stockpiling a bunch of guys who will hit their prime together. And in 2021, you add Weitering, Curnow, McKay, SPS, Setterfield and Fisher to the prime category and remove, say Betts, Simpson from the ‘decline’ category. Suddenly Carlton’s team is 15 prime - 2 decline - 5 developing, which is on par with West Coast and St Kilda.

 

[Ron The Bear]

Carlton are only the 6th oldest team if you are stupid enough to use the mean age for a team coming off a rebuild that has a polarised list profile of players in their 30s and early 20s.

Stupid enough to deal in facts? Yeah that's me. 6th oldest team and 7-9 is a fail. I offered Carlton an out via COVID; suggest you take it.

And in 2021, you add Weitering, Curnow, McKay, SPS, Setterfield and Fisher to the prime category and remove, say Betts, Simpson from the ‘decline’ category. Suddenly Carlton’s team is 15 prime - 2 decline - 5 developing, which is on par with West Coast and St Kilda.

But will their performance be on par with 2020 West Coast and St.Kilda? That's what my post was about. Flags aren't won by building down in age. Carlton's development relative to age is average at very best, below average if you're honest.

Obviously every supporter hopes next year is the one their team takes a leap forward.

 

[an unbiased carlton man]

Stupid enough to deal in facts? Yeah that's me. 6th oldest team and 7-9 is a fail. I offered Carlton an out via COVID; suggest you take it.


But will their performance be on par with 2020 West Coast and St.Kilda? That's what my post was about. Flags aren't won by building down in age. Carlton's development relative to age is average at very best, below average if you're honest.

Obviously every supporter hopes next year is the one their team takes a leap forward.

We will be on par with 2020 St Kilda next year.

Consider our best 22, with those marked with an asterisk as "New" (Players that featured in less than 5 games this year are included, as well as hopeful blow ins)

BP: Marchbank* FB: Jones BP: Newman*
HBF: Docherty CHB: Weitering HBF: Plowman
W: E. Curnow C: Cripps W: Graham* (Rich)
HFF: Martin CHF: C. Curnow* HFF: Cunningham
FP: De Koning FF: McKay FP: Fisher

Followers: Pittonet,Z Wiliams*(GWS), S Walsh

Interchange:
Setterfield, Williamson, Murphy, Gibbons

I think it's realistic that we could obtain Jack Graham and Zac Williams, or at least one. Depending on their decisions of course. If we were to get the both of them, I really see this as a solid best 22.

The forward line is reasonably stacked, the Midfield / Wingers would be stacked. The backline outside Plowman/Williamson would be stacked too. If we couldn't finish at least 6th with that list on the park for the best part of a whole season then I'd be very disappointed. A lot of this hinges on Z Williams/Graham coming to the club of course. Or at least players of a similar ilk. Really, we can't afford not to get Williams. That transforms our center bounce team.

Obviously, we might not get anybody this trade period which would be disastrous. Our list profile is good though, of that best 22 I've highlighted you'd only have Murphy and Ed Curnow over 30 if I'm not mistaken?

 

[chunkylover53]

Stupid enough to deal in facts? Yeah that's me. 6th oldest team and 7-9 is a fail. I offered Carlton an out via COVID; suggest you take it.


But will their performance be on par with 2020 West Coast and St.Kilda? That's what my post was about. Flags aren't won by building down in age. Carlton's development relative to age is average at very best, below average if you're honest.

Obviously every supporter hopes next year is the one their team takes a leap forward.

we've relied less on our older blokes this year imo.

all of simpson, murphy, betts have been pretty average. kreuzer didn't play. casboult was very good early in the year.

last year it was the above guys who carried us to our wins.

we will improve next year with this generation getting pushed out. shouldn't have re-signed murphy.

give us jack graham ya pricks

 

[Ron The Bear]

Obviously, we might not get anybody this trade period which would be disastrous. Our list profile is good though, of that best 22 I've highlighted you'd only have Murphy and Ed Curnow over 30 if I'm not mistaken?

Yeah it's in balance except for the outlier veterans. Murphy should get another year but Curnow remains critical. Jones will tick over in February.

But is it any good? 28yo down (at the start of next season) are Newman, Newnes, Docherty, Plowman, McGovern, Martin, Cripps, Gibbons (R), Lang, Pittonet, Goddard (R), Moore (R), Marchbank. Is that core deep enough to pull Carlton into the top five or six?

PS What does Carlton think a 22yo premiership midfielder who fills a need is worth in a trade?

 

[GROTTO]

Funny, that people like GROTTO suddenly find it pertinent to jump into this thread after the weekend; no happenstance he forms an opinion on this now.

Find it funny youre still salty. Move on. I have.

 

[Gethelred]

Find it funny youre still salty. Move on. I have.

Uh-huh.

I find it funny the degree to which we live in your head, and all for a player who isn't even playing after this year.

Good win from you lot on Sunday. Sholl looks an absolute gem, and you had a number of players play their best ever or year best performances.

 

[GROTTO]

Uh-huh.

I find it funny the degree to which we live in your head, and all for a player who isn't even playing after this year.

Good win from you lot on Sunday. Sholl looks an absolute gem, and you had a number of players play their best ever or year best performances.

Move on. The Crows win is not relevant to this discussion. Nor was its players.

 

[Ron The Bear]

we've relied less on our older blokes this year imo.

all of simpson, murphy, betts have been pretty average. kreuzer didn't play. casboult was very good early in the year.

last year it was the above guys who carried us to our wins.

we will improve next year with this generation getting pushed out. shouldn't have re-signed murphy.

give us jack graham ya pricks

I've never really seen the young blokes at Carlton take the bull by the horns like e.g. Adelaide's have done in the last month. The question is if/when they're going to do it. Who are the next three or four to follow in Weitering's footsteps and become dependable senior players? Walsh, probably. Others show signs but aren't there yet.

 

[an unbiased carlton man]

Yeah it's in balance except for the outlier veterans. Murphy should get another year but Curnow remains critical. Jones will tick over in February.

But is it any good? 28yo down (at the start of next season) are Newman, Newnes, Docherty, Plowman, McGovern, Martin, Cripps, Gibbons (R), Lang, Pittonet, Goddard (R), Moore (R), Marchbank. Is that core deep enough to pull Carlton into the top five or six?

PS What does Carlton think a 22yo premiership midfielder who fills a need is worth in a trade?

Yeah, for sure that list is good enough to pull Carlton into the top 5/6. Lang, Gibbons, Newnes, Goddard and Moore I wouldn't expect to be playing much senior football. Perhaps Gibbons and Newnes. Pittonet is a middle of the pack ruckman but TDK will surpass him eventually.

That's a great question - I really don't know. Obviously, we can't expect to get him for nothing - if we expected that then we couldn't rate him that highly. He plays 9/10 weeks in a team challenging for the flag once again. I'd say an early 2nd rounder would get him over the line - curious to know what Richmond fans would want in return. Truthfully, I haven't seen much of him but I would rate him as a player of similar ability to Setterfield from what I have seen. If Setterfield left, I'm not sure how happy I'd be with an early second rounder for an established player.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Well with Simpson and Kruez gone and Betts likely to hang em up too I think thats gonna wipe off about 2 years avg age and 700 games of experience

Going to be an interesting year for us next year, hopefully it doesnt end in disaster

 

[Ron The Bear]

Yeah, for sure that list is good enough to pull Carlton into the top 5/6. Lang, Gibbons, Newnes, Goddard and Moore I wouldn't expect to be playing much senior football. Perhaps Gibbons and Newnes. Pittonet is a middle of the pack ruckman but TDK will surpass him eventually.

That's a great question - I really don't know. Obviously, we can't expect to get him for nothing - if we expected that then we couldn't rate him that highly. He plays 9/10 weeks in a team challenging for the flag once again. I'd say an early 2nd rounder would get him over the line - curious to know what Richmond fans would want in return. Truthfully, I haven't seen much of him but I would rate him as a player of similar ability to Setterfield from what I have seen. If Setterfield left, I'm not sure how happy I'd be with an early second rounder for an established player.

Haven't watched all Carlton's games but Gibbons has been an improver on what I've seen.

If Graham demanded out I expect a second-rounder would get it done. All previous speculation on Graham has been about him returning to SA. Might cost Carlton extra to keep him in Victoria.

 

[Gethelred]

Move on. The Crows win is not relevant to this discussion. Nor was its players.

Really. Your posting in this thread suggests otherwise.

Feel free to report my posts if you find them irrelevant to the thread topic, if you are that offended.

 

[GROTTO]

Really. Your posting in this thread suggests otherwise.

Feel free to report my posts if you find them irrelevant to the thread topic, if you are that offended.

Its adorable, youre still salty. Anyways, Simpson gone which is awesome news in terms of rebuilding Carlton, next one to go should be Eddie.

Your rebuild is on track, just a few more years to go.

 

[chunkylover53]

I've never really seen the young blokes at Carlton take the bull by the horns like e.g. Adelaide's have done in the last month. The question is if/when they're going to do it. Who are the next three or four to follow in Weitering's footsteps and become dependable senior players? Walsh, probably. Others show signs but aren't there yet.

You haven't really watched much in 2020 then? Weitering has carried our back half of the ground this year, will romp in the BnF.

Walsh and De Koning dragged us over vs. Sydney last week.

Williamson has been influential in all our wins and played almost every game. Fisher kept us in it vs West Coast and was handy in all of his other games. McKay kicked 4 on the weekend and has been pretty damn exciting all year, just shabby in front of goals.

There's 6 youngsters that have drastically improved this year.

Add another overdue 6 next year and we will be laughing.

 

[Gethelred]

Its adorable, youre still salty. Anyways, Simpson gone which is awesome news in terms of rebuilding Carlton, next one to go should be Eddie.

Your rebuild is on track, just a few more years to go.

It's funny you think you've got a gotcha. I thought we'd lose to you lot, given the lead in and your form over the last month. 'Y u so Salti??/' is really the least intelligent reply you can think of?

Our rebuild is fine, if incomplete.

 

[btdg]

Stupid enough to deal in facts? Yeah that's me. 6th oldest team and 7-9 is a fail. I offered Carlton an out via COVID; suggest you take it.


But will their performance be on par with 2020 West Coast and St.Kilda? That's what my post was about. Flags aren't won by building down in age. Carlton's development relative to age is average at very best, below average if you're honest.

Obviously every supporter hopes next year is the one their team takes a leap forward.

Facts are that '6th highest mean' doesn't mean 'oldest team'. Particularly in this case where the mean is skewed upwards by a few outliers as part of a deliberate strategy (keeping players now aged 33-36 and trading out players aged 30-33, to bring in a bunch of players currently aged 22).

7-9 (likley 7-10/41% wins with a percentage of 95%-ish) is also hardly a fail. Last season Carlton went 7-15 (32% wins) and had a percentage of 84.5% for the season. The year before we went 2-20 (10% wins) and had a percentage of 59%. That represents steady improvement. Last season we were happy to avoid teh wooden spoon - this year we were in finals contention until the second last match. By any standard that is improvement.

And while every team thinks they will improve, in Carlton's case, there is reason for optimism, and it is pretty simple: we adopted a strategy of rebuilding via the draft. To this point, the players brought into the team via that strategy have been young. We have 16 players on the list who are 22 or younger and who were drafted in the first or second round of the draft. As of next year, the oldest of them start hitting their prime years (23-29). There's no guarantee of success with those players, but at the very least it gives us time to get it right around them

And partly as a result of our rebuilding strategy, we have as much ammunition as anyone to start bringing in the pieces to be successful around the players we have. We have a huge amount of salary cap space (a combination of old players retiring, large contracts expiring, front-loaded players, and the capacity to pay over the salary cap). We have duplicate young players in important positions (multiple KP forwards, multiple midfielders, etc), and a full set of draft picks to trade if we wish. Again, it's no guarantee of anyone, but it gives a lot of reason to hope.

Next year, you would expect Carlton's performance to be on par with 2020 St Kilda imo. Could Carlton use its cap space and flexibility to make similar off-season moves to St Kilda last year, and then jump to a low top-8 finish? That doesn't seem a particularly large stretch? Even 2020 West Coast is clearly on the table (5th?).

 

[GROTTO]

Well with Simpson and Kruez gone and Betts likely to hang em up too I think thats gonna wipe off about 2 years avg age and 700 games of experience

Going to be an interesting year for us next year, hopefully it doesnt end in disaster

Its the right decision, none of these players will be around when Carlton next push for a Finals 8 position.

You now have the opportunity to get games into kids that these players were taking up.

 

[Ron The Bear]

You haven't really watched much in 2020 then? Weitering has carried our back half of the ground this year, will romp in the BnF.

Walsh and De Koning dragged us over vs. Sydney last week.

Williamson has been influential in all our wins and played almost every game. Fisher kept us in it vs West Coast and was handy in all of his other games. McKay kicked 4 on the weekend and has been pretty damn exciting all year, just shabby in front of goals.

There's 6 youngsters that have drastically improved this year.

Add another overdue 6 next year and we will be laughing.

Yeah Weitering has become a fine player in his own right. Just asking who the next to reach that level will be. Walsh will get there, but he's second-year. There should be others before him.

Williamson/Fisher/McKay/De Koning have polled 10 coaches votes between them. McKay and De Koning look good but might take a while to click as talls. We're still waiting for Curnow to do it consistently.

Carlton has the potential to jump up and I'm not predicting what they'll do next year. Only commenting on progress to date.

 

[GROTTO]

Yeah Weitering has become a fine player in his own right. Just asking who the next to reach that level will be. Walsh will get there, but he's second-year. There should be others before him.

Williamson/Fisher/McKay/De Koning have polled 10 coaches votes between them. McKay and De Koning look good but might take a while to click as talls. We're still waiting for Curnow to do it consistently.

Carlton has the potential to jump up and I'm not predicting what they'll do next year. Only commenting on progress to date.

I dont think its practical for Carlton to carry Mckay, Casboult, Gov and Curnow all at the same time.

Way too tall and immobile. Not to mention unreliable. They actually need to move one of these on and it shouldnt be Casboult.

Gov or Curnow are the ones IMO.

 

[FairKouta]

I've never really seen the young blokes at Carlton take the bull by the horns like e.g. Adelaide's have done in the last month. The question is if/when they're going to do it. Who are the next three or four to follow in Weitering's footsteps and become dependable senior players? Walsh, probably. Others show signs but aren't there yet.

Mckay is kicking goals curnow to come back barring another injury, setters has been solid. Fisher was injured for the majority of the season and has been ok but needs to contribute more.
Cunningham and sps need to step up. If they can’t then unfortunately it will be tough. Dow and Obrien are major concerns and next year will be defining.

Hopefully player development is the top of the agenda. Williamson in defence has had some consistency this year.
TDK has shown he is on the up.
Kpps are sorted.
Need to throw the money at elite mids.

 

[FairKouta]

I dont think its practical for Carlton to carry Mckay, Casboult, Gov and Curnow all at the same time.

Way too tall and immobile. Not to mention unreliable. They actually need to move one of these on and it shouldnt be Casboult.

Gov or Curnow are the ones IMO.

Curnow is the best of the lot.

 

[GROTTO]

Curnow is the best of the lot.

Not if spends the majority of the time on the sidelines.

Talent yes, but if the prognosis is not good for a long future, you may look to get value now.

 

[Ron The Bear]

7-9 (likley 7-10/41% wins with a percentage of 95%-ish) is also hardly a fail. Last season Carlton went 7-15 (32% wins) and had a percentage of 84.5% for the season. The year before we went 2-20 (10% wins) and had a percentage of 59%. That represents steady improvement. Last season we were happy to avoid teh wooden spoon - this year we were in finals contention until the second last match. By any standard that is improvement.

Not saying there's been no improvement. You sacked the coach last year after all.

You can think of the following as percentage above or below par:

2010 +14.9
2011 +34.9
2012 -1.4
2013 -9.3
2014 -39.2
2015 -65.7
2016 -38.9
2017 -41.0
2018 -80.5
2019 -30.3
2020 -17.4

That's nine straight years below par. Next best/worst is North with six. Yes, there has been some improvement, but it's been a slow burn since Silvagni coined the "66-game rebuild" in what? April 2015?

Yes, Carlton have more cause for optimism than supporters of a few other clubs. And that hasn't been the case for a while.