Analysis What list is in the worst state?

[pulpdriver]

GWS, as they are an Essendon on steroids. They have re-signed the coach that hasn't been able to get them over the line. And now their backline is a mess, they are still trying to play two decrepit ruckman based on who is less sore each week, and the only bloke in the forward line that doesn't have a pea heart has busted hamstrings. Not going to win a flag but going to try until Cameron, Kelly, Green, Haynes retire.

I can think of at least four lists I'd less rather have than Giants. Hate blaming the coach but I bet if Clarkson was coaching a group of such talent they'd be unstoppable.

 

[juss]

I reckon the Hawks, a number of older, passed it, former champs, a few traded discards/injury prone player and very little promising youth make up their best 22. Outside of that there's very little.

Adelaide arent much better.

 

[HBF]

Fair enough. I know he’s been mentioned in dispatches as trade bait, honestly if we targeted Cameron and came up short I wouldn’t be shattered if we picked him up, assuming he could shrug those issues

I think Collingwood are very interested in Brown.

 

[Wosh]

Please keep the discussion civil and on topic about the current state of lists only. No injury trolling, no dragging up old issues, no pointless arguing.
Cheers.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

North is the worst by a stretch. They have publicly stated that their 4 untouchables are Cunnington, Goldstein, Higgins and Ziebell.

Two of these blokes are 32, 2 are 30 next year.

So ok Ima gunna be nice here.

1. North have a couple of promising young players. They will struggle to keep them because they have thrown pots of AFL dosh at players who are role fillers at best.
2. Carlton has entirely messed up its list with poor buys and draft selections.
3. Worsfold in his presser yesterday pointed to a lot of problems at the Dons. Has a ltd role player as captain, tries short cuts to buy their way out of trouble. It has not worked.

The Hawks are not in a great position but can be expected to improve their list in the off season.

 

[no. 4]

In terms of furtherest away from a flag given their list profile, I would say Hawthorn. However, they have 4 flags in the bank from the past 12 years so I wouldn't care if I was a Hawks fan.
In terms of a team in no mans land, I would say Essendon. They have a lot of players in their prime but are only good enough to challenge for 8th. Parish shows promise and if Daniher hangs around and gets back to his best then there will be some improvement internally. However, I don't see a premiership contender in Essendon unless they make some tough calls.

 

[RudyBlue]

So ok Ima gunna be nice here.

1. North have a couple of promising young players. They will struggle to keep them because they have thrown pots of AFL dosh at players who are role fillers at best.
2. Carlton has entirely messed up its list with poor buys and draft selections.
3. Worsfold in his presser yesterday pointed to a lot of problems at the Dons. Has a ltd role player as captain, tries short cuts to buy their way out of trouble. It has not worked.

The Hawks are not in a great position but can be expected to improve their list in the off season.

I hate it when you drink

 

[FairKouta]

So ok Ima gunna be nice here.

1. North have a couple of promising young players. They will struggle to keep them because they have thrown pots of AFL dosh at players who are role fillers at best.
2. Carlton has entirely messed up its list with poor buys and draft selections.
3. Worsfold in his presser yesterday pointed to a lot of problems at the Dons. Has a ltd role player as captain, tries short cuts to buy their way out of trouble. It has not worked.

The Hawks are not in a great position but can be expected to improve their list in the off season.

It’s funny i seem to think we are an elite mid and small forward away from being on our way.

 

[Freomaniac]

hawks, dons, roos, crows

Sounds About right....

Remarkably I see som light at the end of the crows tunnell.... They will end up with pick 1, Gws 1st rounder in which if they finish 9th or 10th will be pick 10-12 ish. they also have picks 20 and 29 too. and 2 picks in the 40s.

There is some solid promising SANFL talent this year. Some 18-20 years olds recruited from their local SANFL will help them a fair it in 2021.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

We're in struggle town.

Blue = was A-grade, now old but still contributing
Purple = was A-grade, now old, not even contributing any more
Red = gone by 2022
Orange = maybe has a future
Green = definitely has a future

None of Goldstein, Higgins, Tarrant, Ziebell, Cunnington, or Jacobs are likely to be playing good footy, by 2022.

In fact I doubt we'll see any of them on an AFL list by 2023, and several of them will be gone by 2022.

Brown may have some good footy left in him, turns 28 this year. But the new game ('modern footy') may have passed him by.

Polec turns 29 this year and still has a few years of good footy in him, if in the right side. Is that side North? I doubt it.

From the top 10 of our 2019 Best and Fairest, that only leaves two players:

Jasper Pittard (29 this year and unlikely to be here in 2022) and Trent Dumont (25 this year).

That's right, from our top 10 B&F last year, nine will either not be here, or not have much left, by 2022.

Unbelievable stuff.

Then throw in other players who simply aren't much chop at AFL level:

Mason Wood, Aaron Hall, Jamie Macmillan, Jed Anderson, Dom Tyson, Kayne Turner... it just gets worse and worse.

Then there's a guy who might be legit good but can't get on the park: Garner.

The North list is a horror show and half of the posters on the North board seem blissfully ignorant of this fact.

Now onto the upside:

Dumont is a decent player, good footy IQ, will never be a match winner but could easily play an important role in a good team.

McDonald (25yo) has had an excellent year, can shut down quality forwards, getting better with ball in hand as he gets older.

Nick Larkey (22yo) is a brilliant footballer, maybe too small for #1 forward but would be an excellent #2 KPF.

Ed Vickers Willis (24yo) is a gun defender, terrible luck with injuries but if he overcomes that, has a solid future ahead.

Bailey Scott can seriously play. LDU looks the goods. Simpkin could be a top 10 star of the comp. All youngsters.

Josh Walker has been a steal this season, several years left in him.

Not sure about Thomas, seems flakey AF; Will Walker appears a likely type up forward, we'll see what happens.

Zurhaar might become something, still raw.

Daw is 29, may have a few years of top flight footy ahead of him, maybe not. If we're being honest, probably not.

Other than that, the shelf is just about empty, guys.

We'll need to smash this draft and next year's draft before we're ready to launch again.

This is unless we have a dream run with injuries in 2021 in which case we could sneak a finals run.

Like wringing the last drops of top footy out of the older brigade.

The older brigade were all terrific footballers, A-graders in their day. Maybe everything can come together next year.

More likely we lose a few players (like everyone else) early in the season, cracks appear, and we go for the draft again.

 

[Yojimbo]

The Disposal Matrix: Adelaide versus North Melbourne (Names withheld to protect the innocent)

Rank 1-100: Adelaide x 3, North Melbourne x 6.
Rank 101-200: Adelaide x 7, North Melbourne x 6.
Rank 201-300: Adelaide x 5, North Melbourne x 2.
Rank 301-400: Adelaide x 3, North Melbourne x 7.
Rank 400+: Adelaide x 4, North Melbourne x 1.

Obviously stopped at player number 22, compare to Port Adelaide: 3,10,7,2 and the difference is quite subtle (without the names).

 

[CakeEater]

Carlton.

Their kids havent come on and all of their spine are older players ( Weitering, Jones murphy, curnow levi) which means that they look to have hit their ceiling.

I dont see where their growth will come from.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Carlton.

Their kids havent come on and all of their spine are older players ( Weitering, Jones murphy, curnow levi) which means that they look to have hit their ceiling.

I dont see where their growth will come from.

 

[Jkdyer]

Essington by far the worst list, club and coaching panel

 

[Saint]

It's out of us, North and Hawthorn. Adelaide have bottomed and have some good young guys in their team.

If we lose Daniher, our spine's got one, maybe two good years in it, then Hooker and Hurley are gone and we're a long way back. We've got some good young mids coming through, but they'll be peaking just as our Key Positions are arriving over the hill. I reckon we needed to be finals this year. Maybe next, but if we lose Daniher we'll be in lots of trouble.

Hawthorn don't have a spine at all, really and the rest of their team was patched together to keep the team successful, but they've fallen too far behind. They've got a bunch of premiership stars that they couldn't let go while they had trade value mixed with a lot of half-injured recruits like O'Meara and Patton and now Mitchell. Hopefully Mitchell and Sicily can return to former glory, but that's not going to be enough to replace the declines in their other senior players like Breust, Burgoyne, McEvoy, Frawley and their retirees.

North are just ordinary across the park. Used to rely too much on Ben Brown and Cunnington and got no output from them this year.

Will anyone in those three teams make the All Australian team this year? There would be one or two possibles but none are probables. Throw Adelaide into that list. It's pretty rare that teams at the bottom wouldn't have one or two standouts in the mix in important positions.

 

[Gohawthorn13]

I actually like Adelaide’s list going forward. Lots of unheralded quality young players, and enough mid-range players to use as collateral if they need to. Also Tom Doedee who’s IMO the most underrated player in the league. Definitely not a conventional train wreck 18th placed team.

North’s list has talented young guns but is pretty directionless under Shaw. Not the worst.

Probably out of Hawthorn and Essendon. Both not going anywhere in a hurry despite signing a bunch of players over the past few years. Essendon‘s better because of McGrath, Ridley and Draper. Hawthorn really only have Day and Scrimshaw as decent young players going forward.

worpels 21 years old He’s a good young player

I actually like Adelaide’s list going forward. Lots of unheralded quality young players, and enough mid-range players to use as collateral if they need to. Also Tom Doedee who’s IMO the most underrated player in the league. Definitely not a conventional train wreck 18th placed team.

North’s list has talented young guns but is pretty directionless under Shaw. Not the worst.

Probably out of Hawthorn and Essendon. Both not going anywhere in a hurry despite signing a bunch of players over the past few years. Essendon‘s better because of McGrath, Ridley and Draper. Hawthorn really only have Day and Scrimshaw as decent young players going forward.

Let me assure you Hawthorn will move up the table before Carlton.

 

[Gohawthorn13]

As bad as this years been, hawthorn still has a core group of 7-8 players that will still be there in 3-4 years that you can build an elite team around.
Omeara
Wingard
Mitchell
Worpel
Sicily (injured but will be back at some stage)
Impey
Frost
Scrimshaw
Hardwick

then you have Gunston shiels Breust who will help guide the team whilst still playing well.I don’t take anything out of this year other than needing to move a few older guys on which stratts and poppy retiring there’s two but Henderson and Frawley should go as well. Teams can bounce back up recruit 2-3 quality players over a pre season don’t have to be elite but add to the team.

 

[FairKouta]

worpels 21 years old He’s a good young player

Let me assure you Hawthorn will move up the table before Carlton.

Lol

 

[Shadow89]

Northawn Crombers

 

[Tbonefreo]

Rawlings did say that yes but Id say he meant he meant they’re untouchable in the context of wanting those 4 to be the senior heads they want around for the rebuild... Can’t just throw 18-25 year olds to the wolves in a rebuild with no senior experienced players in each part of the ground. Besides Cunnington (if healthy) none have any trade value of worth to a rebuilding side. Value lies in what they can pass on to the next crop.

I agree with you we are in for 2-4 rough years but I doubt the new admin are under any illusions about how our list needs a rebuild and a major culling come seasons end. Personally hoping for at least 8 delistings and a trade out or two

Yeah that is what I thought he meant. No way anyone will pull a Melbourne again

 

[Fadge]

Let me assure you Hawthorn will move up the table before Carlton.

Yep, I too would back a team that has won 4 of the past dozen flags to contend again before another team that is halfway through their fourth failed rebuild in two decades.

 

[Wojcinski]

In order;

1. Hawthorn
2. North
3. Essendon
4. Adelaide

 

[ferrisb]

Carlton's kids havent come on and all of their spine are older players ( Weitering, Jones murphy, curnow levi) which means that they look to have hit their ceiling. I dont see where their growth will come from.

I am happy to take criticism of Carlton's list, but I think the spine is the least of our problems...

FB: Jones (29)
CHB: Weitering (22)
Ruck: De Koening (21) / Mid: Cripps (25)
CHF: Curnow (23)
FF: McKay (22)

I dare say that would be one of the better 'youth spines' in the league

We definitely need more mids and quality smalls tho.

 

[Toump Ass]

As bad as this years been, hawthorn still has a core group of 7-8 players that will still be there in 3-4 years that you can build an elite team around.
Omeara
Wingard
Mitchell
Worpel
Sicily (injured but will be back at some stage)
Impey
Frost
Scrimshaw
Hardwick

then you have Gunston shiels Breust who will help guide the team whilst still playing well.I don’t take anything out of this year other than needing to move a few older guys on which stratts and poppy retiring there’s two but Henderson and Frawley should go as well. Teams can bounce back up recruit 2-3 quality players over a pre season don’t have to be elite but add to the team.

Christ what an uninspiring list that is.

In four years Tom Mitchell and Sam Frost will both be 30+ and clogging up the "One Year Two Many" thread like half your current list is.

Can't see a genuine star amongst that lot.

 

[Pykie]

s.

North are just ordinary across the park. Used to rely too much on Ben Brown and Cunnington and got no output from them this year.

Will anyone in those three teams make the All Australian team this year? There would be one or two possibles but none are probables. Throw Adelaide into that list. It's pretty rare that teams at the bottom wouldn't have one or two standouts in the mix in important positions.

* really?

I wonder why that would be?