Analysis What list is in the worst state?

[HairyO]

Sam frost still being on an AFL list in 4 years time seems a stretch, even JOM really with his injury history.

21 games in 2018. 21 games in 2019. And the games he missed this year were from a cheek injury and a hand injury.

 

[RedFury]

De Koening ill grant you is a likely type and Weitering is a neat player but not great ( he'll play 200 games but hes a bit vanilla)

Curnow and Mackay are inconsistent.

Murphy and Ed curnow are playing in the mid

Cripps look injured.

Dow walsh sps havent come on at all.

Your assessments were pretty much on the mark (bar slight underrating of Weitering) and I agree Dow and SPS have been disappointing but you then went and undid all your good work with that howler on Walsh. Has gone from strength to strength after a slow start this year and will be strongly contending for his first B&F this year.

 

[Former Decathlete]

worpels 21 years old He’s a good young player

Let me assure you Hawthorn will move up the table before Carlton.

0% chance of that.

 

[Former Decathlete]

Hawks and Bombers clearly the worst.

Dont be fooled by the Pies either.

Once Pendlebury retires they will fall in a huge hole.

Same goes for Dangerfield/Hawkins and Geelong.

 

[RAPPA]

Hawks and Bombers clearly the worst.

Dont be fooled by the Pies either.

Once Pendlebury retires they will fall in a huge hole.

Same goes for Dangerfield and Geelong.

Geelong at least look to have decent players around Danger to offset the loss.

No one comes close to Pendles’ quality at the pies. They can place De Goey in the centre but they’ll cut their nose to spite their face coz their forward line is atrocious. That said, they’ve conceded the fewest points this year of all teams, so kicking a huge score isn’t so much a priority.

 

[hoddo22]

The problem is your improved performance has come from your old timers ( Murphy E curnow into the mids) so the growth and exposure for your young uns isnt there.

My biggest problem with Mckay and C.Curnow is that they havent torn a game up.

I also think Martins exposure to the GC may hold him back from being the player the Blues want.

Weitering, i know theres a view of him being good to great, but I have him as a serviceable 200 game No.1 pick not a world beater.

As for Walsh- If he sticks to the dinky 15-25m kicks (which he executes well) he'll play 200 games but I dont see the wow factor. I compared him to Rhys Palmer ( who had a similarily great 1st season who didnt stay at that level)

I can see how you rate your list higher than the other 4 clubs you've listed however.

Are you aware of the complete smashings that Weitering has given to the likes of Lynch, Cameron, Brown etc? He rarely loses a contest. Hardly vanilla.

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[The Blue Baggers]

De Koening ill grant you is a likely type and Weitering is a neat player but not great ( he'll play 200 games but hes a bit vanilla)

Curnow and Mackay are inconsistent.

Murphy and Ed curnow are playing in the mid

Cripps look injured.

Dow walsh sps havent come on at all.

Walsh ... what games have you been watching...... will be in top 2 with Weitering in the B&F ... not bad for a 2nd year player after winning the Rising Star in his 1st .... not sure he could do more !!

 

[Fadge]

Hawks and Bombers clearly the worst.

Dont be fooled by the Pies either.

Once Pendlebury retires they will fall in a huge hole.

Same goes for Dangerfield/Hawkins and Geelong.

The power of wishful thinking...

 

[Saint]

Yep, I too would back a team that has won 4 of the past dozen flags to contend again before another team that is halfway through their fourth failed rebuild in two decades.

Imagine how stupid you would look if a Carlton supporter said something like this in 1995 about Brisbane?

Or a Melbourne supporter shooting his lip in 1965.

Past performance is not a great indicator of future performance.

 

[LordLucifer]

De Koening ill grant you is a likely type and Weitering is a neat player but not great ( he'll play 200 games but hes a bit vanilla)

Curnow and Mackay are inconsistent.

Murphy and Ed curnow are playing in the mid

Cripps look injured.

Dow walsh sps havent come on at all.

De Koning should develop into a very good player, Weitering is in AA form & Walsh is in everything every week.

As for the rest of your assessments, you are spot on.

The Blues are flying under the radar a bit here, the list has a lot of young players who are expected to become damaging types yet they are stalling or not kicking on to the next level. I'm more than a little concerned that there will be a greater number not make the grade than originally thought.

Having said that, looking at the other clubs, Essendon is in the horrors as is Hawthorn & North. Those pointing the finger at Adelaide are ignoring that they have some very good young guys coming through who should set them up for a return to the other end of the ladder in a few years time.

 

[CakeEater]

Are you aware of the complete smashings that Weitering has given to the likes of Lynch, Cameron, Brown etc? He rarely loses a contest. Hardly vanilla.

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I suppose im judging him getting beaten up by Tabs plus the attempt to make him the next Adam Hunter.

Having 60% of the teams goals kicked on you and beaten at the contest all game doesnt inspire anything more than a vanilla assessment.

Ill accept hes exceptionally important to team structure, but doesnt do much in my eyes to elevate more than that.

 

[Saint]

As bad as this years been, hawthorn still has a core group of 7-8 players that will still be there in 3-4 years that you can build an elite team around.
Omeara
Wingard
Mitchell
Worpel
Sicily (injured but will be back at some stage)
Impey
Frost
Scrimshaw
Hardwick

then you have Gunston shiels Breust who will help guide the team whilst still playing well.I don’t take anything out of this year other than needing to move a few older guys on which stratts and poppy retiring there’s two but Henderson and Frawley should go as well. Teams can bounce back up recruit 2-3 quality players over a pre season don’t have to be elite but add to the team.

That's not so much a "core group" as the middle of a decent list (Mitchell excepted), missing all the top-end talent. With the exception of Worpel, you couldn't expect much natural improvement from any of them. Keeping in mind, those guys are all there right now and the Hawks finished 3rd last.

Line that up against Hawthorn's triple premiership core of Hodge, Roughy, Franklin, Mitchell, Lewis, Gibson, Rioli, Lake/Frawley and you'll see how far removed Hawthorn are from that kind of success with their current list.

 

[CakeEater]

Walsh ... what games have you been watching...... will be in top 2 with Weitering in the B&F ... not bad for a 2nd year player after winning the Rising Star in his 1st .... not sure he could do more !!

Re Walsh.

Did SFa in the Adelaide game
Did not much in the others

Hes on par for a Rhys Palmer style career unless he gets more strings to his bow ( 30m spot up kicks pick up 15-25 every game) and he'll play 200 games which is great for a no.1 pick ( injuries permitting) but im not picking up best player in comp vibes or top echelon of players vibes from him.

 

[Fadge]

Imagine how stupid you would look if a Carlton supporter said something like this in 1995 about Brisbane?

Or a Melbourne supporter shooting his lip in 1965.

Past performance is not a great indicator of future performance.

Past performance is at least as good an indicator as anything else.

Finals Series have been dominated by a handful of teams in thr modern era.

I'm willing to back in a business who have proven they have what it takes to build a team to contend for a flag in the modern era, over and over again (such as Hawthorn, Geelong, Collingwood, Sydney, West Coast) and bank on the perennial cellar dwellers to continue to fail with their rebuilds (Melbourne, Carlton, Essendon) and are yet to contend for a flag this century.

 

[FairKouta]

Re Walsh.

Did SFa in the Adelaide game
Did not much in the others

Hes on par for a Rhys Palmer style career unless he gets more strings to his bow ( 30m spot up kicks pick up 15-25 every game) and he'll play 200 games which is great for a no.1 pick ( injuries permitting) but im not picking up best player in comp vibes or top echelon of players vibes from him.

Kane is that you .

 

[hoddo22]

I suppose im judging him getting beaten up by Tabs plus the attempt to make him the next Adam Hunter.

Having 60% of the teams goals kicked on you and beaten at the contest all game doesnt inspire anything more than a vanilla assessment.

Ill accept hes exceptionally important to team structure, but doesnt do much in my eyes to elevate more than that.

So you're basing this on his one occasion where he had his colours lowered and a failed attempt up forward from three years ago? He'll be in the all Australian squad. Maybe not team but the squad.

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[Saint]

Past performance is at least as good an indicator as anything else.

Finals Series have been dominated by a handful of teams in thr modern era.

I'm willing to back in a business who have proven they have what it takes to build a team to contend for a flag in the modern era, over and over again (such as Hawthorn, Geelong, Collingwood, Sydney, West Coast) and bank on the perennial cellar dwellers to continue to fail with their rebuilds (Melbourne, Carlton, Essendon) and are yet to contend for a flag this century.

Short memory

Dominance comes in waves. Brisbane dominated, then were terrible, now better again. Port a pretty similar pattern. Richmond from 2002 to 2012 were as bad as anyone can be and look at them now.

Hawthorn have built one team that contended for multiple flags. For the 5 years from 2002 to 2006 Hawthorn's performance was as bad a 5 years as anyone else in the modern era. Then 10 years of success built off the down-period draft.

Hawthorn will be out of the finals for the second year in a row and looking at their list, at least the next 3 years so another down patch period. They might do well enough with draft picks to have another dominant era, or they might end up like Essendon/Saints/Melbourne/Freo/Adelaide and not quite get to the mark with that crop.

Sydney, Geelong and Hawthorn had sustained success, but Sydney's and Hawthorn's is over, Geelong won't be far behind.

 

[Fadge]

Short memory

Dominance comes in waves. Brisbane dominated, then were terrible, now better again. Port a pretty similar pattern. Richmond from 2002 to 2012 were as bad as anyone can be and look at them now.

Hawthorn have built one team that contended for multiple flags. For the 5 years from 2002 to 2006 Hawthorn's performance was as bad a 5 years as anyone else in the modern era. Then 10 years of success built off the down-period draft.

Hawthorn will be out of the finals for the second year in a row and looking at their list, at least the next 3 years so another down patch period. They might do well enough with draft picks to have another dominant era, or they might end up like Essendon/Saints/Melbourne/Freo/Adelaide and not quite get to the mark with that crop.

Sydney, Geelong and Hawthorn had sustained success, but Sydney's and Hawthorn's is over, Geelong won't be far behind.

You've quoted a few exceptions, whereas I referenced 'rules'.

I like my theory better, but appreciate your thoughts.

To put it another way, I'd be willing to offer the following bet to any of my acquaintances:
1. You pick for me any team from West Coast, Collingwood, Hawthorn, Sydney or Geelong.
2. You pick any team from Melbourne, Essendon, Carlton and I'll throw in North Melbourne.

And I'll bet you as much as you like that the team you pick for me will will a flag before the team you pick for yourself.

 

[Freomaniac]

Hawthorn’s list is a mess. Easily the worst in the competition now when you take into account both the present and future. The natural result of stupid recruiting decisions, I don’t know what they expected.

North’s list is way underrated because they have had a shocking amount of injuries. I don’t think their list is top end by any means but it wouldn’t be far below average if they got a good run at it.

Crows obviously made some decisions to clear out competitive players who weren’t quite good enough to get it done v the best, but you can see a future with their list, especially as you add some free agents, trades and more high draft picks.

Port is an interesting one. They were in huge danger of becoming too old with no next generation but started to correct that from the 2018 draft. I feel they have too many average players and too many old players to get anywhere in this years finals but they have addressed this with some really strong trading and drafting for the future. They will be delighted to have won so many games this year given some big issues with their list, notably the lack of a gun key defender.

Cats another club like Hawks love recruiting players in the second half of their careers and their best players are old. They lack genuine rucks, damaging forwards, and backs with penetrating run. Generally not drafted brilliantly in the last 8-10 years and whilst clearly their results show their list cannot be near the worst state in the comp, I personally think it is a lot worse than it appears.

I quite like Freo’s list but they have been smashed by injuries to key defenders. If they get their best team on the park they look to have a decent structure and age profile.

Interesting thoughts you put up.

I agree with your view on the Hawks. They have a lot of 30 year olds and Burgoyne is like 38 and is given a chance to go again in 2021. Hawks have pick 3. They can take it to the draft or trade it for 2-3 decent picks to get some much needed young players.

Norths list isnt the worst. But they will have a top 3 pick and demons 1st rounder. They at least need to Produce a gun key forward and an Elite mid. Again, they have the 2 1st rounders to do that.

Crows list isnt that bad, just shot with confidence in the 1st 10 games of this season. The 2 biggest positives the crows have got in this draft is at Least the SANFL at least played a full 14 game season compared to the 8 game WAFL and Cancelled VFL. Also they have like picks 1, 11, 20 and 29. the number 1 pick is Riley Tilthorpe. He is from west Adelaide. A 200 cm, 100kg ruck forward. I saw him play on friday night as I went to see my Beloved South Adelaide take on West Adelaide at Wests home ground at Richmond oval.

Port is interesting as they got young guys in Duursma, Rozee and Drew. On the other end of the age list, Boak and Gray and Westoff ar at the near end of their careers. suprised they finished top 4 with a short backline.

Cats have topped up on experienced players. They need some kids in this draft. Fortunately they have 3 1st rounders.

Freos list after that 2016-19, 4 year rebuild under Ross Lyon has slowly improved the side. Yes, Alex Pearce, Joel Hamling and Griffin Logue, freos 3 best tall defenders have been injured and remarkably have been half decent. If Freo have a minimal injury run, they will make finals next season. I am hoping freo gets a 3-4 year finals run before the likes of Fyfe, Walters, Lobb, Hamling and Hill retire.

 

[Mr_Moogle]

Adelaide for sure. They are so far from being a good side again that you cant even see the light at the end of the tunnel atm. I couldnt even name you 1 young gun under 23 on their list. Maybe Fogarty, but that's still a big maybe right now.

Wtf is this post? We've won our last 3 games on the back of good performances from our youngsters and we're absolutely loaded with draft picks. I'd rather be a Crows fan than barrack for North or Hawthorn right now. I can tell you don't know what you're talking about too because you rate Fogarty when out of all our younger guys, he's probably had the weakest performances. The best youngsters at Adelaide are Schoenberg and Sholl. Fogarty would be close to the trade/delist pile if he doesn't pull his finger out soon.

 

[kid_a]

Essendon strike me as a team in no mans land going forward. List is too good for a rebuild but not good enough to top up to push deep into finals

Yep, going nowhere.
Have been treading water for a few years now and can only see that continuing over the next 2 years

 

[Freomaniac]

Wtf is this post? We've won our last 3 games on the back of good performances from our youngsters and we're absolutely loaded with draft picks. I'd rather be a Crows fan than barrack for North or Hawthorn right now. I can tell you don't know what you're talking about too because you rate Fogarty when out of all our younger guys, he's probably had the weakest performances. The best youngsters at Adelaide are Schoenberg and Sholl. Fogarty would be close to the trade/delist pile if he doesn't pull his finger out soon.

Yeah I am curious on what the crows will do with picks 1, 11, 20 and 29.

Smart move is to use all 4 on Locals in the SANFL to be honest

 

[Mr_Moogle]

Yeah I am curious on what the crows will do with picks 1, 11, 20 and 29.

Smart move is to use all 4 on Locals in the SANFL to be honest

We tend to draft on talent. Always happy to snag a local but only if they are the best player at our pick. Drafting lesser players because you're scared the better ones will be a flight risk, is a sure fire way to dilute the talent at your club.

 

[Underarm]

Bombers might not be the worst, but at least Hawks, Swans, North and Adelaide know where they are at.

 

[PhatBoy]

Hawks and Bombers clearly the worst.

Dont be fooled by the Pies either.

Once Pendlebury retires they will fall in a huge hole.

Same goes for Dangerfield/Hawkins and Geelong.

You may be right. There's no way for me to prove otherwise, and none of us actually KNOW the future. But from the moment Gary Ablett announced he'd signed with Gold Coast, we've been told that we are going to fall in a huge hole.
First it was with Ablett leaving.
Then it was the retirement of Scarlett, Milburn, Joel Corey and Ling and Ottens. then it was how we were going to score without Mooney there as a focal point. Then it was what we will do when Chapman and Johnson are too old. When Bartel goes. When the support cast of Stokes and Kelly goes. Then when our defensive fulcrum in Enright retires. What we'd do without key defenders like Lonergan, Taylor when he goes. As recently as last year, it was 'what's going to happen with Tim Kelly leaving?'

Well it is a decade later, we've missed the finals once - with a record that would have put us in the finals in 8 of the last 10 seasons - and people are still saying it. Yes at some point it will be true.

But I would have thought that after at least 6-7 'critical moments' where everyone has said 'No, this is DEFINITELY the end of the road' that people would have been a little more reluctant to pull the trigger on us.