List Mgmt. 2020 Trade Thread.....

[LuvtheKangas]

Having good quality depth players is a good thing, and we should keep a few of them on. Plus it would add to the pressure on the best 22 guys to make sure they keep performing.

Sure, but if it's going to be 8 players chopped, we can't keep all of Daw, EVW, Garner and Pittard. I'd like to keep them all, but can't see how we do it.

 

[Kangaroo Cat]

Having good quality depth players is a good thing, and we should keep a few of them on. Plus it would add to the pressure on the best 22 guys to make sure they keep performing.

With our injury rates it would be extremely short sighted not to

 

[New_Roo]

Having good quality depth players is a good thing, and we should keep a few of them on. Plus it would add to the pressure on the best 22 guys to make sure they keep performing.

Yes I'd keep vw, seen enough and happy for him to be depth for injuries and suspensions as can play the small or tall


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[Star]

I understand the want to keep players we have grown to love. I admire the loyalty of supporters.

BUT, without change, we're going to be in the same position in 12 months. Possibly worse.

My own opinion is I would rather have a DFA or a speculative (especially this year) #50 draft pick than an average 24-28yo that is unlikely to improve after ample opportunity.

 

[sbdan]

Carlton are still linked to so many deals. The draft season has been their finals season for 20+ years.

 

[Star]

Carlton are still linked to so many deals. The draft season has been their finals season for 20+ years.

Given the number of close games they lost, never-mind the fact that they have given up 5-goal runs in 17 or Teagues 27 games, they should have played finals

 

[big_e]

Sure, but if it's going to be 8 players chopped, we can't keep all of Daw, EVW, Garner and Pittard. I'd like to keep them all, but can't see how we do it.

Well, I think Daw and Garner goes from that list. Pittard may see the writing on the wall and seek a trade out, and Ed would be a relatively cheap option. I think Ed's a really smart footballer who has had injuries due to bad luck rather than having the same soft-tissue injury over and over again, for instance.

But if it was someone else who stayed and EVW was cut, it wouldn't hurt so much - it's more a general principle that depth players are nothing to be sneezed at.

My own opinion is I would rather have a DFA or a speculative (especially this year) #50 draft pick than an average 24-28yo that is unlikely to improve after ample opportunity.

I get the attraction of a speculative late pick but the reality is that not many of those work. I posted something in the draft thread the other day which showed there is an almost perfectly linear relationship between where a player is drafted and how many games they play. Speculative picks I think are fine when you are going well - Richmond taking on Marlion Pickett is the classic case - but in our situation, I think having good quality depth players helps our rebuild, not hurts it.

 

[7577969923]

Well, I think Daw and Garner goes from that list. Pittard may see the writing on the wall and seek a trade out, and Ed would be a relatively cheap option. I think Ed's a really smart footballer who has had injuries due to bad luck rather than having the same soft-tissue injury over and over again, for instance.

But if it was someone else who stayed and EVW was cut, it wouldn't hurt so much - it's more a general principle that depth players are nothing to be sneezed at.


I get the attraction of a speculative late pick but the reality is that not many of those work. I posted something in the draft thread the other day which showed there is an almost perfectly linear relationship between where a player is drafted and how many games they play. Speculative picks I think are fine when you are going well - Richmond taking on Marlion Pickett is the classic case - but in our situation, I think having good quality depth players helps our rebuild, not hurts it.

Richmond's speculative picks weren't based on talent. I think most recruiters knew Picket and Stack had AFL ability. They were speculating that their system and culture could manage the other baggage and issues that came with them.

 

[Joshen]

Seems a bit perverse that we talk up DFAs as potential good depth players and simultaneously consider EVW at risk of losing his list spot.

 

[Shinboner1]

I understand the want to keep players we have grown to love. I admire the loyalty of supporters.

BUT, without change, we're going to be in the same position in 12 months. Possibly worse.

My own opinion is I would rather have a DFA or a speculative (especially this year) #50 draft pick than an average 24-28yo that is unlikely to improve after ample opportunity.

I feel the same way. Everyone has their favourites and its going to be sad for them to go but you have to make changes for the team overall to get better.

 

[Star]

I get the attraction of a speculative late pick but the reality is that not many of those work.

#62 Kyron Hayden
#72 Tristan Xerri
#73 Nick Larkey
#47 Ben Brown

All of these guys are Best 22 Round 1 next year

There is an almost perfectly linear relationship between where a player is drafted and how many games they play

I agree. I do however think that clubs will retain and play high draft picks because they are, well... high draft picks.

I think having good quality depth players helps our rebuild, not hurts it.

"Good quality" yes but not as I wrote "average 24-28yo unlikely to improve after ample opportunity".

 

[Shinboner1]

Seems a bit perverse that we talk up DFAs as potential good depth players and simultaneously consider EVW at risk of losing his list spot.

Sadly I'm not sure if he'll be around in 2021.
An almost 25yr old with sub 25 games experience in a side where list spots are gold.
I love the guy and wish him all the best but would hate him to just get stuck in the reserves again and almost be a rookie level experienced player when he does come in for an injured player.
Glad I dont have to make the decisions Brady and Co have to.

 

[7577969923]

#62 Kyron Hayden
#72 Tristan Xerri
#73 Nick Larkey
#47 Ben Brown

All of these guys are Best 22 Round 1 next year



I agree. I do however think that clubs will retain and play high draft picks because they are, well... high draft picks.



"Good quality" yes but not as I wrote "average 24-28yo unlikely to improve after ample opportunity".

Unlikely.

 

[Star]

Also...

I think with no U18 competition in Vic this year, history will show many gems picked higher in this draft.

 

[Star]

Unlikely.

I'll grant you that but the fact that he has won a contract extension and a high draft pick such as Durdin is getting the chop shows they exist

 

[7577969923]

I'll grant you that but the fact that he has won a contract extension and a high draft pick such as Durdin is getting the chop shows they exist

For sure. I think Xerri is still very much a work in progress and potentially will need to bide his time until Goldy is done. I don't think he has enough strings to his bow to play as back up ruckman because he doesn't really give you anything else.

 

[Star]

For sure. I think Xerri is still very much a work in progress and potentially will need to bide his time until Goldy is done. I don't think he has enough strings to his bow to play as back up ruckman because he doesn't really give you anything else.

I reckon he is not quite there as a ruck and not quite nimble for KPP but he is a prick and I love that about him. Players like that tend to find a niche.

 

[Caracas]

Like everyone else on here, I really haven’t a clue what’s been going on inside Ryce’s head since about R5. On the plus side, he’s been throwing players round, trying them out and playing them in different positions. On the minus side, he’s been throwing players round, playing them in different positions - effectively tanking, in my view. In the pre-season, he played Majak in defence, apparently priming him for the season there. When Daw finally returned from injury, he was only played up forward - a position he had proven to be unable to hold down in the past. Daw spent a few minutes in defence in his first game back and appeared more comfortable, from what I could ascertain. Therefore, it would be a bit strange to just cut Maj loose on the basis of his forward work. That’s why I believe he’ll get an extra year.


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[King Corey]

Also...

I think with no U18 competition in Vic this year, history will show many gems picked higher in this draft.

That's an interesting take hadn't looked at it like that.

Could be a good year to draft across many rounds from that perspective.

 

[7577969923]

Like everyone else on here, I really haven’t a clue what’s been going on inside Ryce’s head since about R5. On the plus side, he’s been throwing players round, trying them out and playing them in different positions. On the minus side, he’s been throwing players round, playing them in different positions - effectively tanking, in my view. In the pre-season, he played Majak in defence, apparently priming him for the season there. When Daw finally returned from injury, he was only played up forward - a position he had proven to be unable to hold down in the past. Daw spent a few minutes in defence in his first game back and appeared more comfortable, from what I could ascertain. Therefore, it would be a bit strange to just cut Maj loose on the basis of his forward work. That’s why I believe he’ll get an extra year.


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I think Maj is an excellent relief ruckman too. That will be more in demand next year if they revert to full-length quarters. He offers more either forward or back than Xerri as well. I also have no idea what Ryce and Brady are thinking but suspect you may be correct.

 

[Star]

When Daw finally returned from injury, he was only played up forward - a position he had proven to be unable to hold down in the past. Daw spent a few minutes in defence in his first game back and appeared more comfortable, from what I could ascertain. Therefore, it would be a bit strange to just cut Maj loose on the basis of his forward work. That’s why I believe he’ll get an extra year.

On the basis that he was used as a 'stop gap' measure up forward during Brown and Larkey's injuries, I agree he will be unlucky to be delisted. In much the same way, I hope Bonar's time up back was for educational/development purposes not the role to judge his career by.

 

[7577969923]

On the basis that he was used as a 'stop gap' measure up forward during Brown and Larkey's injuries, I agree he will be unlucky to be delisted. In much the same way, I hope Bonar's time up back was for educational/development purposes not the role to judge his career by.

Again no inside knowledge at all but I suspect there will be at least one player at North who will be very unlucky to be told their services are no longer required. Might be one or two who will be very lucky to get another 12 months, but I see that as less likely.

 

[BoomerRoo]

#62 Kyron Hayden
#72 Tristan Xerri
#73 Nick Larkey
#47 Ben Brown

All of these guys are Best 22 Round 1 next year

You could be right, but there’s also the possibility of at least 2 of those guys not on our list 2021


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[Star]

You could be right, but there’s also the possibility of at least 2 of those guys not on our list 2021

It's not my point. If BB is elsewhere, he will still be a Best 22 picked up late in a draft

Who are the others you're referring to?

 

[big_e]

#62 Kyron Hayden
#72 Tristan Xerri
#73 Nick Larkey
#47 Ben Brown

All of these guys are Best 22 Round 1 next year



I agree. I do however think that clubs will retain and play high draft picks because they are, well... high draft picks.



"Good quality" yes but not as I wrote "average 24-28yo unlikely to improve after ample opportunity".

Fewer than half of all players taken after pick 20 play 50 games or more. See my post below.

We should take comfort from the fact that two top ten picks will net us a very, very good player. Here's some stats on draft picks (data from 1993-2018)

https://www.draftguru.com.au/analysis/pick-value-comparison/all-time-medians

View attachment 962019
View attachment 962020

Players taken in the third round or later in recent years (and leaving 2019 out of it because it is too soon to judge):

Curtis Taylor - yes
Scott - yes
Crocker - not yet
McKenzie - gone
Hayden - yes
Wilksinson - gone
Xerri - maybe
Hartung - gone
Murphy - maybe
Narrier - gone
Larkey - yes
Zurhaar - yes
Junker - gone
Matthew Taylor - gone
Wagner - gone
Mountford - gone
Ray - gone
Preuss - gone
Fordham - gone
Max Warren - gone
Nahas - gone but was good


If we are looking for someone to be the 44th player on our list, then fine, I don't mind it. But smaller lists will mean we have fewer spots to give these speculative picks a go.