Autopsy Jesse Hogan - Worth 220 Points
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Give him a full pre-season leading into playing the best part of a full season, he'll produce better than 2018.
2018 was his fourth season, coming after a year full of adversity and disruption, where he only played 10 games. He's tracked better than Tom Lynch. He'll be enormous for our set-up if he can get that continuity and they make the Hogan-Lobb-Taberner set-up work. I reckon Longmuir is dead keen for it to work and is pretty confident he can.
2018 was his fourth season, coming after a year full of adversity and disruption, where he only played 10 games. He's tracked better than Tom Lynch. He'll be enormous for our set-up if he can get that continuity and they make the Hogan-Lobb-Taberner set-up work. I reckon Longmuir is dead keen for it to work and is pretty confident he can.
Just hypothetically, lets say Freo are open to trading him. We probably wouldn’t get a top 10 pick for him this year so wouldn’t it be smarter for the club to keep him until his contract runs out? Jesse would be offered a contract elsewhere that would probably warrant a compo pick in the top ten? Or is my knowledge of compo picks way off?
You only get compo picks if they leave via free agency. You're going to get more if you trade while still in contract.
If we take Longmuir's comments during that Ch7 spot on face value, I don't think Freo are looking to trade him anyways.
stanley
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Just looking at the title is very misleading. Actually watch the 47 goals and I would break it down like this. 18 were from free-kicks. 7 from general play. 15 where over the back kicks (that is a structure set-up). About 7 were from leading at the ball or contested marks.
Its the last line we would like to see more of. That is a sign of a good hardworking forward. I'm not saying he is not potentially a good forward but if you break down those goals it doesn't scream a 47 goal contested marking beast that we think of when it comes to Hogan.
He seems (touch wood) to be over the potentially-career-ending-foot-injury. So from this point forward, is he more likely to realize value to Freo by playing for us in the hope he gets back to his pre-2019 form? Or in us making a heavily discounted trade?
Assuming there is nothing off-field going on that isn't public knowledge, I reckon there is more change of us getting good games out him than we would get out of a late 2nd or 3rd rounder that we would get via trade. Unless he plays well into his 30s, he will never be a free agent for us (you need a minimum of 6 years at the same club to become a restricted free agent, and 8 years to become an unrestricted free agent).
So he should be given the chance to perform next year.
We aren't talking about some sneaky small forward who is getting cheapies out the back. This guy was running rings around the opposition's best defender to get those shots at goal. That's exactly what we need from a KPF. Makes everyone score more just like it did at Melbourne.
He's never been that player though. Well, may be in his first year he used to take a lot more contested marks. But throughout most of his career he has been a guy that gets separation from his opponent and does his best work in space.
At Melbourne he very rarely played the stay-at-home-and-take-the-screamer-in-the-hot-spot role. If that is what we wanted, then we recruited the wrong guy. (Or, more to the point are playing the wrong game style.)
Its a good pint but his goals do look to be full of smart footy plays though. Seems to be in the right spots for the right stuff to happen. It's that footy smarts kind of stuff that I think of with Hogan.
We did something similar in the Saints game, but I think that was more due to Fyfe playing lame. I reckon it is a very good strategy ... so long as the deep forward is someone the oppo respects and so are unwilling to leave alone. eg: works with a Fyfe, Tabs, Hogan, etc. Doesn't work as well with a Frederick or Schultz, because the oppo full back will press up and bank on winning the ball at the contest so it doesn't get out the back to the lone FF.
Snuffaluphagus
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I was trying to reconcile elite forward with those goals as well and it took me a while but I think I realise why I thought what he was doing is disappointing and I blame;
A) Freo Coaching
Contrary to what the Freo gameplan of the last 25 years would tell you, a KPF can score goals from ways other than contested marking. They do this through being a smart player with tank and speed to match so they cant get separation. This is greatly helped by having a forwardline that actually works for one another where players make space for eachother to work into AND a midfield that actually tries to hit targets rather than bombing it on their head
B) Tabs
Now, dont get defensive here but Tabs does not have speed and is not that smart a player BUT he is just about the best contested marking KPF in the league. In other words, Tabs is the quint essential Freo forward where he is everything (this year anyway) we expect our KPFs to be because it suits how our gameplan has worked. This is not a slight on Tabs, but how we seem to be conditioned to view our KPFs
Hogan kicks goals in a different way to Tabs when utilised correctly, he even kicks more goals than Tabs, just because he's not a contetsted marking beast (he's no slouch here either, just not Tabs level) doesnt take away from those goals
A) Freo Coaching
Contrary to what the Freo gameplan of the last 25 years would tell you, a KPF can score goals from ways other than contested marking. They do this through being a smart player with tank and speed to match so they cant get separation. This is greatly helped by having a forwardline that actually works for one another where players make space for eachother to work into AND a midfield that actually tries to hit targets rather than bombing it on their head
B) Tabs
Now, dont get defensive here but Tabs does not have speed and is not that smart a player BUT he is just about the best contested marking KPF in the league. In other words, Tabs is the quint essential Freo forward where he is everything (this year anyway) we expect our KPFs to be because it suits how our gameplan has worked. This is not a slight on Tabs, but how we seem to be conditioned to view our KPFs
Hogan kicks goals in a different way to Tabs when utilised correctly, he even kicks more goals than Tabs, just because he's not a contetsted marking beast (he's no slouch here either, just not Tabs level) doesnt take away from those goals
Bank on that, along with the same four to six ads on high rotation trade radio, at least half of which target tradies.But we acknowledge it will be raised a thousand times during the trade period
Tobiko
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Well, This is where The Grabbenator comes in, He can play close to the sticks do his contested marking thing. Hogan can run around and do his thing...And, Lobb make his chicken dinner anyway he can
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An analysis of the interview waveform is very revealing. JL doesn't want to trade Hogan but his subconscious has yet to be convinced of Hogan's determination for success. A big bag of goals this weekend should seal the deal.
Finally some expert analysis!
Bring back Drum
Mundy4Hundy
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I put this up a few weeks ago, not to show how good he is, but to show why he should be playing closer to goals & was being wasted as our lead up forward.
The goals he kicked against North were virtually a snap shot of these goals in this package & chuck him in a Melbourne jumper & add them to this & you wouldn’t know they were from a different season.
It goes to show, given better ball movement up field & an understanding of how Hogan plays, he is actually not far off being the player we were hoping for when recruited.
A few times in the pre season interclub matches they had Walters and Sturt doing the same. I reckon they had ( have) big plans for Sturt.
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Loved the Bennell Highlights at Gold Coast too... absolute gun..... wait up
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I have never really stoped & watched his Melbourne craft.
He is not a pack marking beast or the kick from 50m type.
I thought his foot issues had something to do with him not kicking from long range. But alas he never has..
He is not a pack marking beast or the kick from 50m type.
I thought his foot issues had something to do with him not kicking from long range. But alas he never has..
He plays more like a medium forward and takes a good mark on the lead. If he gets himself up and going is a good complement to Tabs who is really that lead stop and wrestle type forward.
I agree with your assessment fully, except I don’t see it necessarily as a bad thing.
A) kicking it high to the top of the square have been our preferred forward 50 entry style since, umm since..., since....
We kicked it high over the head to Pav, we kicked it high over the head to Kersten, we kicked it high to McCarthy, hell, we kicked (and still do) it high to Walters...
We are just very fortunate that we now have Tabs, Lobb and Fyfe who are outstanding overhead marks.
B) as mentioned above, I think it’s unfair to single out Tabs. Lobb and Fyfe also preferred the high floating ball where they can outreach defenders to take a contested mark.
I’m sure Hogan can also do the same, but it’s just not playing to his strengths.
Our forwards/mids will just have to learn look for and kick it to Hogan when he leads. This will compliment Tabs/Lobb as well, since opposition defenders will need to cover space, instead of just crowding the top of the square, which will make their live much easier.
Having players with different styles will make us harder to defend.
Personally, I find Hawthorne had their most potent forward line when they had Buddy, Roughhead and Hale as their tall forwards. Don’t see why we can’t play 3 tall forwards as well.
Snuffaluphagus
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You're right its unfair to single out Tabs and its not really what I was trying to do (my post was probably worded badly though), more tongue in cheek that he's so good at what he does that its harder to appreciate what Hogan was doing in that video. Raising the idea of Lobb and Fyfe is also a good point. What I'm poorly trying to say is that we are conditioned as Freo supporters to see "good" KPF goals as those taken from a contested mark, but Hogan's goals are just as "good", just in a different way.
sorry if it seem that way, wasn't having a go at you.
May just be a bit frustrated at all the talk offloading Hogan (i know its all just nonsense created by journos, but it did get to me a bit) when he is just picking up.
JLo have done well so far, but our forward entries and scoring is something he definitely needs to look at over preseason.
And i still see Jesse Hogan as part of the solution.
Snuffaluphagus
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I agree, I honestly dont think we win can a flag without Hogan in top form.
Top 4, yes, be the premiers, no.
