List Mgmt. 2020 Trade Thread.....

[Harris 10]

Also...

I think with no U18 competition in Vic this year, history will show many gems picked higher in this draft.

Had this exact discussion the other day, so many times we hear about a kid or kids who come on late and shoot up the order. With this in mind I hope we take a punt and select a lot of Vic kids with our later picks in the draft.

 

[Tas]

I'm not sure whether I'm on the right thread to post this. All threads seem to blur into one another, at this hour of the night and at the pace they run at.

Anyway, I've seen quite a few posts where people are suggesting extravagant numbers of delistings, some of the order of 25% or more.

I very much doubt this will happen though because the AFL seems to be saying that the reduction in list sizes will be gradual. I'm guessing around 40 will be the number for 2021 plus some rookies.

List sizes are currently 38-40 seniors + 6-4 Cat A rookies + 3 Cat B rookies

They are unlikely to change Cat B rookies as it will largely impact NSW and QLD clubs. 40 isn't any kind of reduction, "expert opinion" believes it will be 38 seniors + 2 Cat A rookies. That being said, the list size and structure is part of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the AFL can't change it at a whim, they would need to re-negotiate the CBA and to date the AFLPA has said they do not see a compelling reason to reduce list size, I am guessing the AFL would need to grease the wheel.

So not too many potentially reasonable players will be cut from other clubs and worth a look.

Yeah, no club is going to cut a best 22 player just because of list size reductions, however, some clubs have had salary cap pressure and list size squeeze problems before any reductions to either list size or TPP. There may be some opportunities to take advantage of that, but I doubt it will result in significant change for our club. Perhaps Corr is one such fall-out, who knows.

In addition, in my opinion, this is not the year to be investing heavily in the draft. The likelihood of some major draft fails, is greater than usual, because the main crop of players eligible in Victoria, haven't had a chance to display their wares, in the most critical year in which to judge them.

You could also make the argument that this year is a perfect storm to invest heavily in this draft. A lot of the higher prospects have been tracked since they were 12-14 years old, there is a much greater body of evidence than just how well they performed in their final year. Hollands did his ACL and wouldn't have played regardless, it still wouldn't have stopped him going very high this year.

There are a lot of Academy and F/S options this year that are expected to go relatively high, we will probably see a number of second and third round picks consumed to pay for these players, this will elevate the remaining picks behind them. Also, with potential list reductions some clubs have asked the AFL to ignore the 3 player minimum for this draft, having space on our list could potentially give us the opportunity to look at some really good prospects for 2 years and see if any stand out.

There are some really promising Vic mids who should have been around the 2nd to 3rd round who might have to spend another year in the NAB due to a lack of draftees taken this year, we could potentially make out like bandits simply by having the opportunity to have a look at 2-3 extra kids, the list space isn't at a premium as it is for clubs who believe they are contending.

I hope the knife doesn't cut too far and instead we stick with the majority of our list. In my opinion this is equally not the year to make too many harsh judgments on our existing list, because of the extraordinary circumstances everyone has had to endure, coupled with our truly shocking injury list. Just my opinion.

If Rawlings doesn't see a player as being part of our future or important for the development of the team then I do not think they will survive, 2020 is a bad year to come out of contract. We have 24 players out of contract, we have re-signed 2, we extended Scott and Josh Walker triggered an extension to 2021.

That leaves: Bonar, Brown, Jacobs, Taylor, EVW, Macmillan, Pittard, Anderson, Crocker, Turner, Hayden, Hosie, Daw, Williams, Wood, McGuinness, Ahern, Durdin, Garner, Murphy, Xerri and Will Walker.

Jacobs is cooked and Wood looks like he is done. Pittard unable to get a game doesn't look promising for him, especially if there are legs to the Corr rumour and to me that is odd because Pittard was one of our better one-on-one defenders, he was just dubious with ball in hand. That is similar to Williams, good at shutting down dangerous smalls, not a great kick.

We have injury prone guys, Jacobs, Garner, Walker, Bonar has joined that list. They have talent but can they stay on the park?

A few are in the wilderness; Ahern, Durdin, Pittard, Wood, Murphy, these guys are struggling to get games when fit.

There are a lot of players I really like who have some dubious durability question marks on them atm, I hope they survive but who knows.

Club is going to put a line through a number of these players and I think there are going to be supporters disappointed or surprised at some people who are let go. You could probably get rid of ten people and it wouldn't impact our best 22, that is part of our problem, when we lose a few core players to injury we do not have a second tier that steps up.

I think we have a number of players who would be thanking baby Jesus for the fortunate timing of being contracted for 2021 otherwise there would be a more substantial basis for a deeper cut.

 

[Star]

Fewer than half of all players taken after pick 20 play 50 games or more. See my post below.

Without knowing the answer, I would hazard that our club has done better than others after pick 20.

I also think the 2020 Draft will be an outlier with Nab League, APS, AGS, ACC Football and there will be better prospects than before after pick 20. Conversely, there could be a few that go higher than they should based on exposed underage or interstate form

 

[Heaps of fun]

Had this exact discussion the other day, so many times we hear about a kid or kids who come on late and shoot up the order. With this in mind I hope we take a punt and select a lot of Vic kids with our later picks in the draft.

Could turn out to be a very good year to cut deep.

 

[DesertRoo]

trade brown, throw $$ in front of j.cameron.. take gws spine..

 

[Rad Roo]

trade brown, throw $$ in front of j.cameron.. take gws spine..

No, we after 2m pete

 

[DuckYeah]

A list size of 40 means that we're guaranteed at least nine players delisted, with probably about two to three players who won't be getting a contract put in front of them until after the trade period.

McGuinness is in his own category, as the rulings over category b rookies will decide his fate and I think he'll either be delisted or kept "outside" the list. I think he is a great prospect, but too speculative to keep in these conditions.

The other eight to be delisted would be Jacobs, Hosie, Wood, Daw, Williams, Murphy, Durdin and Ahern. Garner and Pittard would both be made to sweat it out over trade week; if Williams or Saad is lured across then that's Pittard's time here over. Garner may be saved by us having literally no better option; Garner wins a battle against taking pick 57 to the draft, but if it's a highly rated free agent then he loses out.

If it's a 38+2 instead then Crocker and Garner would be the names I'd look at moving to the rookie list. We can also assume that if Brown or Polec are traded then they replace themselves on the list, either with another high draft pick or a veteran player.

I think OOC players that are not part of the future will be booted.. if a wuality half back joins the club, then Murph will stay and macmillan will go. Its an obvious one.. you’d keep the younger bloke than keep the older one. Murph is depth. Soooo.. that pokes a decent hole in who is staying.. we are going for youth and leaders. Untouchables vs OOC over rated spuds..

i wouldnt want MacMillan leading my dog

 

[7577969923]

No, we after 2m pete

Which would you prefer at the club though? 2MP, wh can't get a game for The Suns, or the reigning Coleman Medalist?

 

[Rad Roo]

Which would you prefer at the club though? 2MP, wh can't get a game for The Suns, or the reigning Coleman Medalist?

At 24, a much more physical version than brown, will suit us fine. Is a more suitable version of Brown to us. Brown would be far better at a team like brisbane or collingwood as he would thrive if given better delivery. Wright is much more suited to us with his stronger physique and our currently less than elite forward entries. In other word, our team atm does not need a top key forward but just someone to bring the ball to the groud.

 

[7577969923]

At 24, a much more physical version than brown, will suit us fine.

Never come anywhere near the output that Brown has. It is purely hypothetical but Cameron is a major talent and you would take him every day over Wright.

 

[DesertRoo]

No, we after 2m pete

Who’s 2 million dollar Pete?
sounds like a playa..

 

[Rad Roo]

Never come anywhere near the output that Brown has. It is purely hypothetical but Cameron is a major talent and you would take him every day over Wright.

For second rounder, take him in an instant. Wright is more robust and much better fit for us at least over the next season or two.

 

[giantroo]

4 Port players delisted


The Power confirmed on Thursday that Joe Atley, Wylie Buzza, Tobin Cox and Riley Grundy wouldn't be offered contracts for 2021.

Martin Frederick and Jake Patmore have also been informed they won't be considered for AFL selection for the rest of the season and will await their fate away from the club.

Power outage: Four delisted immediately, two more in limbo

www.afl.com.au

 

[DesertRoo]

Never come anywhere near the output that Brown has. It is purely hypothetical but Cameron is a major talent and you would take him every day over Wright.

Cameron and Larkey would be a good combo for years... and years

 

[Event Horizon]

Could turn out to be a very good year to cut deep.

Also not the best year to have two top 10 picks

 

[sbdan]

List sizes are currently 38-40 seniors + 6-4 Cat A rookies + 3 Cat B rookies

They are unlikely to change Cat B rookies as it will largely impact NSW and QLD clubs. 40 isn't any kind of reduction, "expert opinion" believes it will be 38 seniors + 2 Cat A rookies. That being said, the list size and structure is part of the Collective Bargaining Agreement, the AFL can't change it at a whim, they would need to re-negotiate the CBA and to date the AFLPA has said they do not see a compelling reason to reduce list size, I am guessing the AFL would need to grease the wheel.



Yeah, no club is going to cut a best 22 player just because of list size reductions, however, some clubs have had salary cap pressure and list size squeeze problems before any reductions to either list size or TPP. There may be some opportunities to take advantage of that, but I doubt it will result in significant change for our club. Perhaps Corr is one such fall-out, who knows.



You could also make the argument that this year is a perfect storm to invest heavily in this draft. A lot of the higher prospects have been tracked since they were 12-14 years old, there is a much greater body of evidence than just how well they performed in their final year. Hollands did his ACL and wouldn't have played regardless, it still wouldn't have stopped him going very high this year.

There are a lot of Academy and F/S options this year that are expected to go relatively high, we will probably see a number of second and third round picks consumed to pay for these players, this will elevate the remaining picks behind them. Also, with potential list reductions some clubs have asked the AFL to ignore the 3 player minimum for this draft, having space on our list could potentially give us the opportunity to look at some really good prospects for 2 years and see if any stand out.

There are some really promising Vic mids who should have been around the 2nd to 3rd round who might have to spend another year in the NAB due to a lack of draftees taken this year, we could potentially make out like bandits simply by having the opportunity to have a look at 2-3 extra kids, the list space isn't at a premium as it is for clubs who believe they are contending.



If Rawlings doesn't see a player as being part of our future or important for the development of the team then I do not think they will survive, 2020 is a bad year to come out of contract. We have 24 players out of contract, we have re-signed 2, we extended Scott and Josh Walker triggered an extension to 2021.

That leaves: Bonar, Brown, Jacobs, Taylor, EVW, Macmillan, Pittard, Anderson, Crocker, Turner, Hayden, Hosie, Daw, Williams, Wood, McGuinness, Ahern, Durdin, Garner, Murphy, Xerri and Will Walker.

Jacobs is cooked and Wood looks like he is done. Pittard unable to get a game doesn't look promising for him, especially if there are legs to the Corr rumour and to me that is odd because Pittard was one of our better one-on-one defenders, he was just dubious with ball in hand. That is similar to Williams, good at shutting down dangerous smalls, not a great kick.

We have injury prone guys, Jacobs, Garner, Walker, Bonar has joined that list. They have talent but can they stay on the park?

A few are in the wilderness; Ahern, Durdin, Pittard, Wood, Murphy, these guys are struggling to get games when fit.

There are a lot of players I really like who have some dubious durability question marks on them atm, I hope they survive but who knows.

Club is going to put a line through a number of these players and I think there are going to be supporters disappointed or surprised at some people who are let go. You could probably get rid of ten people and it wouldn't impact our best 22, that is part of our problem, when we lose a few core players to injury we do not have a second tier that steps up.

I think we have a number of players who would be thanking baby Jesus for the fortunate timing of being contracted for 2021 otherwise there would be a more substantial basis for a deeper cut.

Thanks for that summary.

I still find it all very confusing. Are you saying that there are currently 44 on the list - seniors and cat A rookies? So if we cut back to 40 seniors and cat A rookies, then 4 players from every team must be dropped with no replacements?

So if we did drop 8 players, only 4 would come in, which is probably about standard. Trading players (for picks or other players) will operate outside this.

 

[DesertRoo]

Also not the best year to have two top 10 picks

Top ten picks would be easier to go off past history then a group of picks late in the draft.

 

[Rad Roo]

Which would you prefer at the club though? 2MP, wh can't get a game for The Suns, or the reigning Coleman Medalist?

If you are the reigning coleman, which club would you pick to go to, a contending team or a bottom of the ladder team?

Cameron should be aiming to get to collingwood

 

[Event Horizon]

Top ten picks would be easier to go off past history then a group of picks late in the draft.

That's very arguable. A player who looked like a star in their underage year may have fallen back in the pecking order this year. Happens all the time.

 

[7577969923]

For second rounder, take him in an instant. Wright is more robust and much better fit for us at least over the next season or two.

Cameron is a restricted free agent. You could offer him $5 million over 5 years and GWS may still match it. If you think Wright is a better fit than arguably the best key forward in the game then you really don't know much about football.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Cameron and Larkey would be a good combo for years... and years

Cameron will be offered money he has not earned. No thanks.

Good player, but overrated.

 

[big_e]

Cameron and Larkey would be a good combo for years... and years

Jeremy Cameron is 18 weeks younger than Ben Brown. 18 weeks.

 

[DesertRoo]

Cameron, Williams and Saad.
Hit the draft for midfielders with our two first and what ever we get for Brown.
Rebuild over, now where did I put that pipe..

 

[Shinboner1]

Thanks for that summary.

I still find it all very confusing. Are you saying that there are currently 44 on the list - seniors and cat A rookies? So if we cut back to 40 seniors and cat A rookies, then 4 players from every team must be dropped with no replacements?

So if we did drop 8 players, only 4 would come in, which is probably about standard. Trading players (for picks or other players) will operate outside this.

I think they'll be looking to bring in more than 4 'new' players this year. Consdiering Corr is basically signed and 3 must be taken from the draft then our trade period would be done; which I don't believe to be the case.

 

[Snake_Baker]

Jeremy Cameron is 18 weeks younger than Ben Brown. 18 weeks.

I reckon we should just stick with what we have for less money.

Ben Brown and Jeremy Cameron AFL Stats Comparison

Ben Brown and Jeremy Cameron AFL Stats Comparison.

www.footywire.com

Again, good player but...............