AFL 2020 - AFL Round 18 (no aftertiming allowed)

[The_Steadier]

How can you say Hill for 15 is "all but guaranteed" when he's hasn't had 15 in his last game, and in numerous other games throughout the year?

He had problems early in the year with the team not getting the ball in his hands.
They now work to basically try and give it to him at every possible opportunity.

Last week was the first time in 5 weeks (which is when they started deliberating feeding him the ball) he didn't get 15.

I'm very confident that last week was an outlier with the new way the team are trying to use him.

It almost gets comical at times the lengths our guys will go to give it to him specifically rather than any other teammates- even if it means giving it to hill when he is in a worse position than another option.

they may put De boer On Hill though?

Noone bothers tagging hill, deboar will likely go to steele.

GWS need a big % win to have any hope of finals, they won't be playing much defence.

 

[FrankGrimes]

How can you say Hill for 15 is "all but guaranteed" when he's hasn't had 15 in his last game, and in numerous other games throughout the year?

Had him for 15 last game, he plays that outer wing and most of the ball was on the side closest to camera, if they play that way again he is a huge risk for 15, who does de boer tag? Steele?

 

[The_Steadier]

put a bet on saints to not make the 8 a few weeks ago and was quietly confident until Giants lost too the Dee's last week. $50 bet with $80 cash back now (paying out $450) but it doesn't look very likely anymore. Should I cash out?

I would- we would need to shat the bed on a massive scale to miss from here.

Even a close loss tonight means the dees need to destroy the bombers by 10 goals.

Or the dockers with nothing to play for need to beat the inform bulldogs who have everything to play for.

 

[The_Steadier]

they play that way again he is a huge risk for 15

We lost, we aren't gonna play that way again.

Plus gws won't be playing much defence- they need big % to have any hope of finals

 

[mac23]

3.5u Coniglio 20+ $1.77 (lads)
2u GWS SU $2.05 (lads)
2u Greene 2+ $3.50 (TAB)
1u Greene 3+ $10 (TAB)
0.5u Greene 4+ $41 (TAB)
0.25u Greene 5+ $101 (SB)

Overs on all of these prices.

Coniglio has been battered in the media and although form hasn’t been great, disposal numbers are still reasonable compared to this price. Last time he received heavy media attention he bounced back with a hot patch of 20+ for 7 consecutive weeks. Big performance required from the skipper.

Expecting to see GWS start as favourites here. Money coming in for them. Don’t need to bang on about how much talent and how badly they’ve underperformed, season on the line, let’s see them stand up.

Massive percentage play for Greene here. He’s the man that knows how to get his team going and these odds are simply way over when compared to his season and career records.

Like all of these.
SGM: GWS, Greene 2+, Coniglio 20+
$13 boosted lads (is $6-7 SB and TAB)

 

[NYRB]

There needs to be around an 8 goal differential made up between the Saints losing and the Demons winning, for the Saints to go below the Demons on percentage. You would imagine that would be a bit of a far fetched scenario. 5.2% needs to be made up between the two sides. It may be a bit dangerous betting on the Saints to win here, given that a small loss , isn't the end of the world for the Saints. If the Saints are 3 goals down, the question will be will they go all out attack for the win or will they look to go into 'damage limitation'? I'm seeing the Saints drift out from around $1.71 earlier in the week to $1.94 and I am assuming its the 2nd argument, where they will look to play a slow style football, if down to protect their percentage.

GWS will need to win and win handsomely. So they have to go all out attack from the get go. There is little point in GWS playing a slow brand of footy and just aim for a win. They need to win and win by at least 8 goals, preferably 9 goals to overtake the Saints on percentage. (assuming scores to be around 150 points or so)

To keep it simple, Saints = will look to play a slow tempo style tonight, Giants= will look to play at a million miles an hour.

Anyway I'll be playing around with the percentage calculator all night.

 

[squeaky1000]

SGM: Coniglio, Taranto, Hopper, Clark 15+ $2.10 sb, $2.20 lads
Nothing fancy but pretty keen on this, three prime GWS mids and Clark coming off 20+ should see some more time in the middle with no Jones

 

[NYRB]

I have this weird feeling the Giants will play to the situation tonight. The Giants won't be cagey, they will treat it as if they are 9 goals down, and have to win by the game by some margin to keep their season alive. Not sure if others are seeing it the same way?


A Giants 5-6 goal win is not the end of the world for GWS , but you would be more reliant on favours from Fremantle to beat the Bulldogs by possibly a couple of goals.

The Giants have destiny in their hands tonight.......you will see a different pace from them tonight. No cagey footy from them.

 

[iluvparis]

Who knows what you will see - they have shown multiple times they can just not turn up even with huge amounts on the line.

 

[GROTTO]

Probably not the right thread, but just wanted to ask punters about their thoughts of Pointsbet,? Positives? Negatives? Any issues?

I often see their ad on TV, reminds me of the punters on here.

 

[NYRB]

Probably not the right thread, but just wanted to ask punters about their thoughts of Pointsbet,? Positives? Negatives? Any issues?

I often see their ad on TV, reminds me of the punters on here.

PointsBet are great

Quick withdraws and they offer spread betting. I heard they are looking to expand into the US market and currently are legal in 12 states in the USA.

You can bet on Unders for goalscorers. But I often end up betting overs.

They offer AFL fantasy points - something I'm not really into but I know other punters would be. Margins could do with a little improving $1.70 v $2.05 is pretty high. eg



Their Same Game Multis are $hit though.

 

[NYRB]

Oh yeh another thing is they offer bonuses, if you bet a certain amount you get credit points. They also seem to offer a fair amount of novelty , and single bets exclusive to AFL which other agencies don't have.

To reinforce their SGM are at worse odds look at this:

Toby Greene 2+ Goals, Riccardi 2+ Goals in a SGM would pay $5.75 at PointsBet



Same market at Sportsbet would be $7.75
Same market at Ladbrokes would be $10.01

If PointsBet are reading this, it's something you can definitely improve on.


Should ideally shop around for SGM, need to get the best bang for your buck. Huge difference between a $10.01 and $5.75

 

[ash_1050]

Probably not the right thread, but just wanted to ask punters about their thoughts of Pointsbet,? Positives? Negatives? Any issues?

I often see their ad on TV, reminds me of the punters on here.

Haven't had any issues with them and they throw up plenty of interesting offers. Shop around though as their odds can vary wildly from other bookies.

 

[Ohh Ok]

I like PointsBet, early on they were very quick to limit. I stopped using them for a while and all my restrictions were lifted. Some have come back but they still allow a decent amount on after referral. They quite often offer some good prop markets and can give best odds by a decent way at times. Can be a little slow to update odds at times too, which is a good thing if you miss a movement.

 

[NonPhixion]

Greene burnt me last week. So like a true degenerate I’ve doubled down this week. Riding this train hard.
also for a sb promo abuse
Greene 5+, Whitfield 20+, Steele 20+ $235.

 

[BloodRet]

Kent
De boer
@10 boosted lads

 

[The_Steadier]

Using my aforementioned method of somewhat de-risking thurs and fri 3 leg multis on sportsbest with their bonus bet offer, I'm rolling with the following 3 multis this evening:

Cogs to get 20
Cogs to get 15
Hopper to get 15
paying $2 boosted

Ross to get 20
Ross to get 15
Clark to get 15
paying 3.12 boosted

Cameron to score 2
Cameron anytime goal
Hill to get 15
paying 2.90 boosted

Nothing extravagant, but i see it as a nice way of improving the odds on bets that blokes will get 20 or kick 2 goals, while being covered by a return bonus bet if they only kick 1 goal or only get 15 (and of course the other leg gets up.)

For instance, instead of just taking cameron to kick 2+ goals at $2, I now get that at $2.90, with the protection of a bonus bet back if he only kicks 1.
(of course hill needs to also get 15 for that bonus bet coverage, but i think that's a shoe in)

Those 3rd legs- hopper clark and hill getting 15 are pretty close to locks in my book.

 

[Bazza97]

On the Greene train tomorrow too at those odds

Greene 2
King 2
Cameron
@23 boosted lads

Greene 3
King 3
@90

Greene 2,3,4 @3.50,9,31

I'm tailing your first bet. Got a really good feeling about Greene tonight and can definitely see King getting a couple on the board as well.

 

[Bazza97]

Also put a single bet on King 2+ $2.75 Lads, since I've included him for 2+ in my multi.

 

[06Premiers]

Their Same Game Multis are $hit though.

Dunno if just me, but they don't offer SGM on any sports other than AFL. Massive flaw for me.

 

[freo_leo29]

Look where he played mid season
I’d expect his goal rate in day games, in Perth to be good
Night Metricon to be poor

I do suppose he would play a lot more at optus next season, maybe good for another year then

 

[freo_leo29]

GWS tagged Hill last year when he played for Freo, that was over Fyfe too

Fyfe free: De Boer surprises with next Dockers victim

On a tagging hot streak, we all expected Matt de Boer to run with Fremantle skipper Nat Fyfe in today’s clash. But the Giants chose a different Dockers star to blanket.

thewest.com.au

 

[BloodRet]

Don't mind some Geary named in the fwd pocket

2.80, 12, 81 sb

 

[NYRB]

Beware of backing goalscorers and overs. High level of humidity around Brisbane in September. You've been warned.

Collingwood taking the West Coast approach and also preparing as if its another slippery one tonight (and for the remainder of the season)

 

[benji21]

Beware of backing goalscorers and overs. High level of humidity around Brisbane in September. You've been warned.

Collingwood taking the West Coast approach and also preparing as if its another slippery one tonight (and for the remainder of the season)

View attachment 964405

Not sure if there's any stats, gonna have a look today but think Gabba seems to average a little higher for night games than metricon?