AFL 2020 - AFL Round 18 (no aftertiming allowed)

[squeaky1000]

Don't mind some Geary named in the fwd pocket

2.80, 12, 81 sb

Wouldn't be surprised if he tried to play a nullifying role on Whitfield

 

[NYRB]

Not sure if there's any stats, gonna have a look today but think Gabba seems to average a little higher for night games than metricon?

For games after 7pm in QLD, its low scoring at both grounds for the QLD grounds. Just quickly looked at some data:



The GABBA has been the lower scoring ground at night surprisingly. Both grounds drop off in scoring in the 2nd halves this season- that isn't surprising with more dew, and teams playing slower to protect their leads. The total settors have got this game about right, with the line at 118.5 points.

The deeper the games go in September, the more unsure about what we will get in terms of conditions. But the general consensus is , its more dewier- which could lead to a crappy low scoring Finals series- something the AFL won't love.

 

[benji21]

For games after 7pm in QLD, its low scoring at both grounds for the QLD grounds. Just quickly looked at some data:

View attachment 964426

The GABBA has been the lower scoring ground at night surprisingly. Both grounds drop off in scoring in the 2nd halves this season- that isn't surprising with more dew, and teams playing slower to protect their leads. The total settors have got this game about right, with the line at 118.5 points.

The deeper the games go in September, the more unsure about what we will get in terms of conditions. But the general consensus is , its more dewier- which could lead to a crappy low scoring Finals series- something the AFL won't love.

Oh that's interesting, so almost gotta bet on weather, some cloud cover and wind tonight, might be less dewy.

 

[NYRB]

Oh that's interesting, so almost gotta bet on weather, some cloud cover and wind tonight, might be less dewy.

if there is roughly 118 points scored in the game, you have to think about who will score the 18 goals if betting on goalscorers. A game like this which is 50:50, Team A will get roughly 9 goals, Team B will get roughly 9 goals.

That's why I don't like betting on SGM with goalscorers in these games.....you have to have balls of steel to see who will get the 9 or so goals.

Then from that 9 goals, you probably get 2 smokies/rank outsiders that will score the goals. All up you could be betting on 7 goals shared between 4-5 main goalscorers. For GWS eg J Cameron, Riccardi, Toby Greene, Finlayson, Brent Daniels. For the Saints possibly the 7 goals shared between: Max King, Geary, Membrey, Butler and Rowan Marshall.

 

[benji21]

if there is roughly 118 points scored in the game, you have to think about who will score the 18 goals if betting on goalscorers. A game like this which is 50:50, Team A will get roughly 9 goals, Team B will get roughly 9 goals.

That's why I don't like betting on SGM with goalscorers in these games.....you have to have balls of steel to see who will get the 9 or so goals.

Then from that 9 goals, you probably get 2 smokies/rank outsiders that will score the goals. All up you could be betting on 7 goals shared between 4-5 main goalscorers. For GWS eg J Cameron, Riccardi, Toby Greene, Finlayson, Brent Daniels. For the Saints possibly the 7 goals shared between: Max King, Geary, Membrey, Butler and Rowan Marshall.

Agree, prefer Top goal scorer for that fact, 3 goals will get you the win in most games, 2 goals will get you a tie with maybe 3. Topsport have Greene 12 dollars top goalscorer, 7.5 for 3 goals.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Sportsbet 3 x 'one leg fail free bet' promo



Seems like a free hit. I know draws are usually low value but look at these two teams' results lately.

Melbourne's last four matches: -15, +14, -3, -2

GWS: -5, -12, +9, +38

Plus it has been one of those seasons...

Also like Paddy Ryder AGS @ 2.40 on TAB. Has kicked goals in his last three matches.

 

[Red Dog Styles]

Surely gws rally and with help from the saints this easily goes above 120 points. Both teams pretty pathetic if they cant get 10 goals each

On SM-G930F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Newborn]

Up the Saints !

 

[Lyyynnnchy]

Sportsbet 3 x 'one leg fail free bet' promo

View attachment 964409

Seems like a free hit. I know draws are usually low value but look at these two teams' results lately.

Melbourne's last four matches: -15, +14, -3, -2

GWS: -5, -12, +9, +38

Plus it has been one of those seasons...

Also like Paddy Ryder AGS @ 2.40 on TAB. Has kicked goals in his last three matches.

I don’t get this. You’re locking up your money that could be better spent elsewhere

 

[mouncey2franklin]

I don’t get this. You’re locking up your money that could be better spent elsewhere

I'm a degenerate, gambling addict, alcoholic, living all alone in a foreign country because I got stranded here due to muh pandemics.

When the Coll / Rich and Suns / Bombers draws got up, I can't tell you how happy it made me feel.

It was like all my problems disappeared for a few hours.

As a mug punter, that's all I'm chasing. The highs.

Ten dollars well spent if you ask me. And if the two players both hit 20+ I'll get it back as a free bet anyway.

Which I will then proceed to put on some team in the EPL tonight.

After checking both teams' forums and determining which of their supporter base is more pessimistic about their chances of winning.

Welcome to my life. I didn't think it would be this way. But here we are.

 

[dontlimitme]

50$ SGM Coniglio over 20.5/Cameron 2+/King 2+ @ 11.95 Boosted SB

 

[dontlimitme]

I'm a degenerate, gambling addict, alcoholic, living all alone in a foreign country because I got stranded here due to muh pandemics.

When the Coll / Rich and Suns / Bombers draws got up, I can't tell you how happy it made me feel.

It was like all my problems disappeared for a few hours.

As a mug punter, that's all I'm chasing. The highs.

Ten dollars well spent if you ask me. And if the two players both hit 20+ I'll get it back as a free bet anyway.

Which I will then proceed to put on some team in the EPL tonight.

After checking both teams' forums and determining which of their supporter base is more pessimistic about their chances of winning.

Welcome to my life. I didn't think it would be this way. But here we are.

amen

 

[mookieb]

Well i'm joining the SB SGM bonanza tonight. Like a mix of Greene 2+, Coniglio 20+, Hopper 15+, Finlayson AGS and a few others mixed in.

Thinking GWS might win so on GWS + Cameron 2+ at $5 with Betdeluxe.

 

[ShaunWDT]

Wouldnt be surprised if Cogs has 30 tbh, copped it all week long and too good of a player to not respond.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Heath Shaw to kick a snag

$3.25 Lads

 

[benji21]

Gabba just had 20 minutes of rain, so dew wont be an issue. Second half scoring could be a good play once it dries a bit

 

[GROTTO]

The Stephen Coniglio Train departing in 40 minutes.

 

[The Firm]

Pointsbet promo, lead at half time on h2h market paired with b365 early payout (up 32 points) could be an arb opportunity for tonight game, for those interested.

Only issue is thinking which team will lead at HT...

On Pixel 4a using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Jonsyd1]

Raining in Brisbane for past half an hour, mostly cleared up now. Could be a low scoring match.

Tailed Toby 2+/3+/4+

Coniglio Hopper Billings Taranto 15+
Butler King Cameron AGS 5.85 @ Lads

I’m new to this let’s go

 

[dontlimitme]

Raining in Brisbane for past half an hour, mostly cleared up now. Could be a low scoring match.

Tailed Toby 2+/3+/4+

Coniglio Hopper Billings Taranto 15+
Butler King Cameron AGS 5.85 @ Lads

I’m new to this let’s go

welcome to the dark side

 

[TryAnHit]

Raining in Brisbane for past half an hour, mostly cleared up now. Could be a low scoring match.

Tailed Toby 2+/3+/4+

Coniglio Hopper Billings Taranto 15+
Butler King Cameron AGS 5.85 @ Lads

I’m new to this

Should be low scoring
I'll bet 2+ 3+ 4+ goals
Gonna fit in well

 

[dontlimitme]

de boer is a late out

 

[GROTTO]

de boer is a late out

Thats good for Cogs bets. They wont be tagging and have de boer around the ball.

 

[GROTTO]

Guess who Im betting on to score the goals tonight.

 

[GROTTO]

Wheres my mate BloodRet not like you to be so quiet tonight? I enjoy your melts on here.