GROTTO
TheBrownDog
- Jul 5, 2013
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AFL 2020 - AFL Round 18 (no aftertiming allowed)
- Thread starter balmainforever
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- Jun 16, 2018
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De Goey 3, Dixon 2, first half highest scoring, @ 21.5 on SB (or 24.5 if you power it).
- May 6, 2009
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Thanks I presumed that would be the case.
It would be an open and shut case to win in the small claims tribunal if they were to cancel other bets etc because you simply used their service in a way they ought reasonably have been aware that it could be, (and is) used.
Given the level of monitoring and analytics they use on their customers, they wouldn't have a leg to stand on playing the poor defenceless- 'we didn't know we were being exploited via unfair use' angle.
It would take them 2 seconds to code their website to not allow such bets- and they do it all the time, barring certain markets/bets to not be able to be combined.
Like all of their business model- they allow it intentionally, so they can take the money off people who don't make it work for themselves, then once the relatively small handful of folks find ways to tip the scales slightly back the punters way- they just block off those avenues for them.
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GROTTO
TheBrownDog
- Jul 5, 2013
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I remember the days Sportsbet would post odds of Finals for Week 1, even when the Finals permutations were not finalized.
Will be interesting to see the odds posted. I presume they may even come up during tonights game, if one side is smashing the other.
Will be interesting to see the odds posted. I presume they may even come up during tonights game, if one side is smashing the other.
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
- Jul 5, 2013
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You should take the Pies to win SU with Pies at the +line in a same game multi and power that up. Offers better odds.
PieBeast
Brownlow Medallist
- May 6, 2009
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A good suggestion however i only do it with bets that I think are a relatively sure thing- and i'm not convinced the pies will win... they very well might- but long way off a sure thing.
For instance, tonight i think dixon to kick at least 1 goal is close to a sure thing.
So that's why I went with him AGS, +2 and the u150 points.
2 'sure things' and one less likely one.
When it's covered by a bonus bet- if the non 'sure thing' doesn't get up... in theory no harm done- bonus bet back.
Of course, i then need to get my 'bonus bet' money back- which is made more difficult by the fact that when using bonus bets:
A. You don't apply for meeting the T & Cs for other bonus bet promos- ie you cant use a bonus bet to fund another bonus bet eligible punt and
B. With bonus bets, if you win using a bonus bet- you only win the profit, not the original stake + profit.
So that means if i get a bonus bet back as a consolation prize, i need to back something that gets up paying minimum $2 in order to get my money back in my hand.
Which isn't ideal, but that's life.
In the end- as long as I choose my 'sure things' wisely, i basically get 2 shots at getting a ~$2 bet to get up.
Ie: first time around = like my dixon bet tonight.
If charlie doesn't kick 2+ tonight- in theory my sure things do get up and i get a bonus bet back.,
2nd time around = i then get another shot at a ~$2 to try get my original stake back and live to fight another day
I will also mention that I'm using the same method with 2 other multis tonight too:
(I'm covered with the 'exclusive' 3leg bonus bet offer across this whole round)
Degoey AGS
Degoey 2+
Wines 15+ @2.60
and
Wines 15+
Wins 20+
Port u40 @ 2.75
Rowd072
Team Captain
Reckon we might see a few more goals tonight - enough to go over 113.5
Game is at the GABBA - higher scoring ground.
Port assured of top 2, Collingwood assured of a finals spot - intensity will be off just slightly as they get ready for their first finals.
Port's defence just a little shakey over the back of the defence. Collingwood have been able to exploit this in the past.
$100 - Over 113.5
Game is at the GABBA - higher scoring ground.
Port assured of top 2, Collingwood assured of a finals spot - intensity will be off just slightly as they get ready for their first finals.
Port's defence just a little shakey over the back of the defence. Collingwood have been able to exploit this in the past.
$100 - Over 113.5
PieBeast
Brownlow Medallist
Reckon WHE is a good value to get 15 touches tonight at $2.25 sb
WHE, Maynard, Amon 15+ $4.25 boosted
WHE, Maynard, Amon 15+ $4.25 boosted
- Jun 16, 2018
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What's the deal with SB offering such juicy odds on Cox for 2/3/4 goals?
Has kicked two goals in each of his last three matches.
Averages two goals per match at the Gabba (the venue for tonight's match).
Comes up against the shortest backline I can ever remember seeing for a top four team.
$5 for 2 seems like way overs, $18 for 3 and $81 for 4 also worth a nibble imo.
Lads have him way shorter, as do TAB.
Rare for SB to offer odds way above the others like this.
I particularly like De Goey 2+ into Cox 3+ at $54 (powered).
Has kicked two goals in each of his last three matches.
Averages two goals per match at the Gabba (the venue for tonight's match).
Comes up against the shortest backline I can ever remember seeing for a top four team.
$5 for 2 seems like way overs, $18 for 3 and $81 for 4 also worth a nibble imo.
Lads have him way shorter, as do TAB.
Rare for SB to offer odds way above the others like this.
I particularly like De Goey 2+ into Cox 3+ at $54 (powered).
- Oct 6, 2011
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Collingwood scoring in 2020:
Collingwood correlation coefficient is -0.2845. Which supports the general view that they start games well and then for some reason slow down in scoring throughout a match. There is a general negative relationship. Ports' defence is one of the strongest in the comp , and I can see Port strangling them as the game goes on.
Port Adelaide are a different beast. Whilst they don't get off the blocks as much as Collingwood, there is a trend to them, in that they pace themselves during a game and if they score around 3+ goals or more in the 1st quarter, generally they will score around that mark for the remaining quarters. Port Adelaide have a positive linear relationship, if they start games well and score well, they maintain that consistency throughout the match. As indicative of the correlation coefficient value of +0.4274. I will make a prediction, if Port kick 3 goals in the first quarter, they will score at least 72+ points in the match. As I speak, Port Adelaide to score 76-90 pts at Sportsbet is paying $6.00 which seems a bit tasty to me.
Ive taken a bit of a nibble at odds of $16.25
for Collingwood to win 1st Qtr
Port -1.5 line 2nd Qtr
Port -1.5 line 3rd Qtr
Port -1.5 line 4th Qtr
Collingwood correlation coefficient is -0.2845. Which supports the general view that they start games well and then for some reason slow down in scoring throughout a match. There is a general negative relationship. Ports' defence is one of the strongest in the comp , and I can see Port strangling them as the game goes on.
Port Adelaide are a different beast. Whilst they don't get off the blocks as much as Collingwood, there is a trend to them, in that they pace themselves during a game and if they score around 3+ goals or more in the 1st quarter, generally they will score around that mark for the remaining quarters. Port Adelaide have a positive linear relationship, if they start games well and score well, they maintain that consistency throughout the match. As indicative of the correlation coefficient value of +0.4274. I will make a prediction, if Port kick 3 goals in the first quarter, they will score at least 72+ points in the match. As I speak, Port Adelaide to score 76-90 pts at Sportsbet is paying $6.00 which seems a bit tasty to me.
Ive taken a bit of a nibble at odds of $16.25
for Collingwood to win 1st Qtr
Port -1.5 line 2nd Qtr
Port -1.5 line 3rd Qtr
Port -1.5 line 4th Qtr
Attachments
- Oct 6, 2011
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Also calling Sportsbet: any chance you can allow multis on Points scoring? speaking specifically of these markets. I don't see the reason why you can't put these markets in a Same Game Multi. Cheers.
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
- Jul 5, 2013
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Next time you think a player will kick 3+, you should back him to be AGS and 2+ too in a 3 leg multi.
I mean if a player is a "sure thing" to kick 3 goals, you can add some legs (it doesnt matter if they are completely related) and get that bonus bet via the promos if one fails.
You get better odds too.
Keep doing it, that will teach them.
- Mar 27, 2018
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next level stats NYRB. Honestly love your work
- May 6, 2009
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Unless plugger and dunstall come out of retirement and footy goes in a timemachine i can't see many situations where I think someone is a shoe in to kick 3.
Fwiw, before the 3 I've put on tonight's game ive, placed 5 multis this round using this method for:
3 outright wins
2 losses, 1 got a bonus bet back.
All 3 wins were paying ~$2, the bonus bet back was @ 3.12 and the loss at 2.90
Confident on adding another 2 outright wins (and 1 loss, hopefully with a bonus bet back) to that collection tonight.
The potential collects aren't huge given I'm looking for ~$2 options (plus the $50 max for bonus bet back), but it's an interesting experiment nonetheless so far for me.
* it, I've already had one of my better weekends on the punt and it's last game before finals, so I've chucked another couple sneaky multis in.
De Goey AGS, Dixon AGS, Mihocek AGS, Gray AGS, Marshall AGS & Rozee AGS $15.98 boosted to $18.98 NEDS
De Goey 2+, Dixon 2+, Mihocek AGS, Gray AGS, Marshall AGS & Rozee AGS $43 boosted to $51 SB
De Goey AGS, Dixon AGS, Mihocek AGS, Gray AGS, Marshall AGS & Rozee AGS $15.98 boosted to $18.98 NEDS
De Goey 2+, Dixon 2+, Mihocek AGS, Gray AGS, Marshall AGS & Rozee AGS $43 boosted to $51 SB
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De goey 2
Dixon 2
Cox
Gray
@12.25
Cox 2
De goey
Stephenson
WHE
Gray
@23.75
Gray 2
Cox
Pendles 15
Elliot 15
SPP 15
Grundy 15
Noble 15
@65
Cox 2
Thomas
Woodcock
Marshall
Pendles 20
Elliot 15
SPP 15
@75 sb
No ******* around tonight. Also taken a swipe at the SB special 4 or less goals in each qr @6 in case my ags bets cave. I like the look of Rozee ags 2.70 lads just quietly.
Dixon 2
Cox
Gray
@12.25
Cox 2
De goey
Stephenson
WHE
Gray
@23.75
Gray 2
Cox
Pendles 15
Elliot 15
SPP 15
Grundy 15
Noble 15
@65
Cox 2
Thomas
Woodcock
Marshall
Pendles 20
Elliot 15
SPP 15
@75 sb
No ******* around tonight. Also taken a swipe at the SB special 4 or less goals in each qr @6 in case my ags bets cave. I like the look of Rozee ags 2.70 lads just quietly.
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
- Jul 5, 2013
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What if a player is shoe in for 2+?
Using your logic, you get a free hit for 3+, by backing AGS and 2+ when the promos are available.
Keep doing it.
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
- Jul 5, 2013
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Hey Champ, I feel happier and content now knowing your around tonight.
I just think it might be ironic if Cox gives it to you tonight.
- May 6, 2009
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Yes I know what you are saying, but the probabilities of ANY player kicking multiple goals is far higher than ANY player kicking 1 goal.
Even the absolute best struggle to kick 2+ regularly enough to consider them a shoe in to do so in todays modern footy- especially this year with short quarters.
Tom hawkins has won the coleman in a canter and far more reliable than all others- and even still- he kicked less than 2 in 22% of games this year.
78% success rate of the best of the best does not shout 'shoe in' to me.
The method only really works with high % 'shoe ins', eg: dixon is going at 87% for AGS this year, wines @ 86% for 15+
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Yeah that's really good value on Rozee for a goal. I think I got on him for AGS $2.15 on TAB last night before NEDS/Lads had released their goal scorer markets. I've just put money on Rozee AGS again this time on NEDS at $2.65, that's just too good to ignore.
Going to be pissed if Marshall goes goalless again, campaigner is overdue for a goal
Spent all week thinking this was at AO despite being a Pies home game. Just had a helpful post typed regarding the wind here and the weather looks like it'll turn bad soon. Cox for goals is no chance... actually check, it's at the Gabba. So,
$30 on Cox 2+ goals @ $4 (SB)
All aboard!
$30 on Cox 2+ goals @ $4 (SB)
All aboard!
- Jun 16, 2018
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