The Premiership Standard - 100pts for, 86 pts against

[Munga]

Or you could adjust it for equivalent match time...

For Against
Port: 104.55 - 76.67
Brisbane: 104.55 - 83.64
Richmond: 100.14 - 77.12
Geelong: 108.78 - 79.50
West Coast: 96.62 - 82.58
St Kilda: 102.26 - 87.96
Bulldogs: 97.32 - 91.23
Collingwood: 85.14 - 76.85

 

[Freomaniac]

97-64 from 11 games.

what about this season? lol

 

[Underarm]

what about this season? lol

10-2 and 67-45 since moving to Brisbane in round 6. Same as last year, getting significantly better as the season goes on.

 

[JackFlash]

I was gutted with your prediction. Would of been Good if J-lo got us a finals spot this season.

The Dockers will play finals in 2021 if we do in fact have a season of any note?

 

[Freomaniac]

The Dockers will play finals in 2021 if we do in fact have a season of any note?

I dont think you care to be honest. lol

You are just happy the AFL has escaped Ross Lyon..... and his tactics lol

 

[Rotayjay]

no team in 2020 meets this standard lol

Looks like no premiers this year then

 

[Freomaniac]

Looking at it slightly differently, all of those teams except 2005 Sydney scored at least 8 points above the competition average. West Coast 2006 was +8.4, Brisbane 2003 +9.8, Sydney 2012 +10.1. The rest were +13.2 or higher.

The only teams achieving +8 this year are Hawthorn (+24), West Coast (+19) and Collingwood (+12). Another seven teams are in the black between +1-6.

Imagine Richmond winning the flag again this year.

Tigers win the flag in 2017 on 3rd spot.

Tigers win the flag again in 2019 from 3rd spot.

Tigers are 3rd on the ladder in 2020.

Come to Think of it. Richmond were 3rd in the ladder in 1980.

 

[Sherrinator]

Are Richmond the best 3rd placed team ever??

 

[Vintage]

Or you could adjust it for equivalent match time...

For Against
Port: 104.55 - 76.67
Brisbane: 104.55 - 83.64
Richmond: 100.14 - 77.12
Geelong: 108.78 - 79.50
West Coast: 96.62 - 82.58
St Kilda: 102.26 - 87.96
Bulldogs: 97.32 - 91.23
Collingwood: 85.14 - 76.85

Looks like you adjusted a bit too much? Perhaps 50% rather than 25%?

 

[Munga]

Looks like you adjusted a bit too much? Perhaps 50% rather than 25%?

Good pick up! In which case every team is under in "for" and "against"... blame the slippery footballs haha


Port Adelaide Power - 87.13 - 63.90
Brisbane Lions - 87.06 - 69.71
Richmond Tigers - 83.46 - 64.26
Geelong Cats - 90.66 - 66.25
West Coast Eagles - 80.51 - 68.82
St Kilda Saints - 85.22 - 73.31
Western Bulldogs - 81.10 - 76.03
Collingwood Magpies - 70.96 - 64.78

 

[Freomaniac]

Are Richmond the best 3rd placed team ever??

yes they are

 

[Freomaniac]

so this is the 5th year in a row the Premiership side hasnt aeraged 100 points a game in attack. 3 of the last 5 Premiership sides have not scored 90 points in a grand final.

 

[Freomaniac]

Ross Lyon is like a virus....

yep the equivalent of the corona virus. Every coach is doing Ross Lyon tactics even the great Clarko.

Ross Lyon is the Ivan Milat of the AFL.

Lets Call him Rossy Milat then. lol

 

[Freomaniac]

2021 editon.....

Melbourne : 85.8 points for, 65.5 points against
Port Adelaide: 85.6 points for, 67.81 points against
Geelong: 83.86 points for, 66.18 points against.
Brisbane: 96.8 points for, 72.6 points against

Bulldogs: 90.6 points for, 68.22 points against
Sydney: 90.27 points for, 75.27 points against
giants: 80.36 points for, 80.59 points against
essendon: 88.77 points for, 81.36 points against


now fancy that....


not one team averaged 100 points in attack in the regular season. yet all conceded less then 86 points a game.

 

[Freomaniac]

I think part of Freo and Ross Lyon's problems are that his teams are too disciplined, too good and too structured. They win too many games playing his brand of footy and with the same players. So there's little experimentation and learning from mistakes.

If you're always winning or getting close to the best opposition with your standard set up there's not a lot of reasons to change.

If I was a Freo fan I wouldn't mind a few soft first half performances to set up higher scoring games to discover if the players can do it when required.

Similarly I'd be hoping Ross tries a few more blokes than the usual suspects. Mitch Morton was the most unlikely of premiership heroes for Sydney. Freo might have a similar player.

and not one side in the top 8 averaged 100 points a game in attack

 

[Freomaniac]

Sydney in 2005 were a once off. They're not the standard you aim for, they're an anomaly that probably won't be repeated in years.

It's funny that 86 points against is the high point for premiership defences. For most teams these days that would be a match losing score.

Freo barely average better than that as an offensive score. I would love to see Freo's scoring improve, but I don't see it so long as plodders and hacks like Suban and De Boer are continually up for selection.

its 2021 mate lol

 

[Freomaniac]

Looking at it slightly differently, all of those teams except 2005 Sydney scored at least 8 points above the competition average. West Coast 2006 was +8.4, Brisbane 2003 +9.8, Sydney 2012 +10.1. The rest were +13.2 or higher.

The only teams achieving +8 this year are Hawthorn (+24), West Coast (+19) and Collingwood (+12). Another seven teams are in the black between +1-6.

and your 3 premiership sides of 2017, 2019 and 2020 never at any of those 3 flag years averaged 100 points per game in attack during the regular season.

 

[Freomaniac]

So for the 6th season in a row.... the team that wins the flag doesnt score an average of 100 points a game during the regular season.

 

[Freomaniac]

Good pick up! In which case every team is under in "for" and "against"... blame the slippery footballs haha


Port Adelaide Power - 87.13 - 63.90
Brisbane Lions - 87.06 - 69.71
Richmond Tigers - 83.46 - 64.26
Geelong Cats - 90.66 - 66.25
West Coast Eagles - 80.51 - 68.82
St Kilda Saints - 85.22 - 73.31
Western Bulldogs - 81.10 - 76.03
Collingwood Magpies - 70.96 - 64.78

and for 2021?

 

[00Stinger]

So for the 6th season in a row.... the team that wins the flag doesnt score an average of 100 points a game during the regular season.

I guess we waited until finals to do it!

Sent from my SM-G981B using Tapatalk

 

[Freomaniac]

10-2 and 67-45 since moving to Brisbane in round 6. Same as last year, getting significantly better as the season goes on.

and 2021?

 

[HTT]

This stat is pretty useless now - it needs to be calibrated to scores now to have any use. The average score for the league is ~80 so any team anywhere near contention is going to average under 86 PA/game. And a team scoring over 100 per game would be a freakish performance, not impossible but not gonna happen often and therefore not a premiership predictor.

 

[Freomaniac]

Should be 13 of the last 15.

Sydney 2005 - 86 for and 74 against.

Make it every side in the last 6 years from 2016-2021

 

[Freomaniac]

So Champion Data has been tweeting some interesting stats. 14 of the last 15 premiers have averaged >100 points for and <86 points against. 14 of the last 15. The exception was 2001, however from Round 10 onwards the Lions averaged 80.6 points against, so fair to say they had a slow start.

Thought it might be interesting to keep an eye on this and see how it goes. Currently it looks like this:

Fremantle - 87.4 points FOR, 64.5 points AGAINST
West Coast - 105.1 points FOR, 68.5 points AGAINST
Sydney - 89.3 points FOR, 67.8 points AGAINST
Hawthorn - 110.1 points FOR, 72.1 points AGAINST
Collingwood - 98.5 points FOR, 77.4 points AGAINST


They're probably the main contenders at the minute. Interesting (to me at least) because statistical correlations like this over a lengthy period can usually be relied on. So is Ross Lyon still not scoring enough to finally win a flag?

Now for the 2022 version of this.....

Cats: 97.54 points FOR , 67.63 points AGAINST
Demons: 88 Points FOR , 67.40 points AGAINST
Swans: 93.95 points FOR , 73.45 Points AGAINST
Magpies: 83.59 points FOR , 80.13 points AGAINST


Dockers: 79.04 Points FOR , 67.54 Points AGAINST
Brisbane: 97.59 Points FOR , 81.77 Points AGAINST
Tigers: 98.40 points FOR , 80.90 Points AGAINST
Dogs: 89.68 Points FOR , 82.36 Points AGAINST


Again (Ross Lyon) defence wins again lol

 

[Freomaniac]

Looks like no premiers this year then

and that should be the case in 2022 lol