Racing Cox Plate 2020 discussion .

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Jugada said:
Yeah Aspetar doesn't have the runs on the board like SA Derbies and midweek BM64s
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He has the runs on the board like Danceteria did. How’s it going with the class drop out here?

Your just putting it up blind because it’s a raider. Super lazy form analysis. Be better
 
Multiple warning signs for those keen on the Ape

- fully exposed 5yo
- never even contested a G1 in the UK. Won g2 last time out but was double figures and multiple hot faves went awful
- start prior beaten at listed level where he was only 8/1 anyway
- has to go to Germany to win cheap G1
- Placegetters from York win dropped down in grade and both rolled as short price faves next time out. I wouldn’t touch either in a cox plate
- started 40/1 in Hong Kong vase last year. A race dominated by Europeans. Finished second last

DYOR

I would honestly back Fierce Impact to beat this guy home in a Cox plate.
 
iluvparis said:
Not sure how you can have Amory so far ahead of Sir D either. Both beaten the same amount by magical but sir d was 18/1 in doing so while Armory was 66/1
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Well SP doesn't count for anything given you need to add Ghaiyyath and Japan to the mix in that race. They were both 18-1 in the first race but yeah good point I have overlooked the Dragon a bit, just don't think his racing style will be as suited to the valley.

But yeah put him above the camel now you're right
 

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iluvparis said:
Multiple warning signs for those keen on the Ape

- fully exposed 5yo
- never even contested a G1 in the UK. Won g2 last time out but was double figures and multiple hot faves went awful
- start prior beaten at listed level where he was only 8/1 anyway
- has to go to Germany to win cheap G1
- Placegetters from York win dropped down in grade and both rolled as short price faves next time out. I wouldn’t touch either in a cox plate
- started 40/1 in Hong Kong vase last year. A race dominated by Europeans. Finished second last

DYOR

I would honestly back Fierce Impact to beat this guy home in a Cox plate.
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Best Solution board.

Placegetters might not have performed but 4th and 5th both bolted in at group level next runs
 
Jugada said:
Best Solution board.

Placegetters might not have performed but 4th and 5th both bolted in at group level next runs
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yeah best solution won a Caulfield cup not a cox plate. He’d also started 12/1 in an Epsom derby. Apey is going around that price at listed level. If that’s the comparison your are doing to have him you need to reasses. Again it’s a lazy analogy. Danceteria would be a better comparison. I ask again. How is it going with the class drop out here?

4th and 5th were the two faves I mentioned who ran massively below their best that day
they’d start prohibitive faves over him again if they met tomorrow and ran nowhere near there true level at York. Their form certainly didn’t help fox chairman or lord glitters produce cox plate winning performances next time out.

his peak rating just looks entirely false and he doesn’t have the form to back it up. He looks nothing like any raider that has been competitive in a cox plate and he won’t be
 
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Straight comparison to Danceteria is just as lazy. If Folkswood can be competitive in a CP this guy can. Flogging Elequarm, Telecaster and Regal Reality at his last run before coming here is good enough form to beat the D graders, 3yo squibs and SA derby winners we have going around here.

Fair call how far i overlooked the Dragon but more than willing to go a H2H vs anything outside my 4
 
Jugada said:
Straight comparison to Danceteria is just as lazy. If Folkswood can be competitive in a CP this guy can. Flogging Elequarm, Telecaster and Regal Reality at his last run before coming here is good enough form to beat the D graders, 3yo squibs and SA derby winners we have going around here.

Fair call how far i overlooked the Dragon but more than willing to go a H2H vs anything outside my 4
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Deal - I'll pick something once we know who is actually going to be in the final field (could be anything at this stage).

Danceteria comparison is actually excellent - best performances in Germany - was generally going around double figures in listed/G3 level races in the rest of Europe. And flogging the three you mentioned certainly didn't help either of the placegetters next time out when they were both rolled in lesser company. He is also going to map equally as awfully as Dance did - it will most likely settle last and try and round them up - I gave him dead set zero chance of doing that.

Just because Folkswood ran a place way behind Winx/Humidor though doesn't mean every D grader that comes out goes straight on top. As I said - at best he might be able to do a Side Glance and sneak into the top 4 or 5 before running well in a MacKinnon but he is just nowhere near good enough to win. In his best win he was the second biggest prince in a field of 7 and the two placegetters got rolled after - three hot faves all disappointing - if that doesn't scream huge warning lights that the form is false I don't know what does. Basically for him to win you need to hope he can repeat the 1 performance that makes it look like he might be up to it, and hope that a half dozen horses run well below their best - and I just don't think that is very likely.

Him being non competitive in the Cox Plate is my highest conviction international call this spring.
 
iluvparis said:
Not sure how you can have Amory so far ahead of Sir D either. Both beaten the same amount by magical but sir d was 18/1 in doing so while Armory was 66/1
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Soft7
Armory a lot better on firm tracks.

SirD meant to be a lot better on wet tracks and still couldn’t beat Armory that day.

Not saying it couldn’t be wet cox plate day but I have Armory well in front.
 
Joker91 said:
Soft7
Armory a lot better on firm tracks.

SirD meant to be a lot better on wet tracks and still couldn’t beat Armory that day.

Not saying it couldn’t be wet cox plate day but I have Armory well in front.
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Would love to know on what possible basis you could make this claim (this just in - there is none).

Track was Good-to-yielding when Sir D beat home Armory (so not wet) - Armory has never beaten Sir Dragonet home - Sir D won their only meeting comfortably so forgive me if I think you are making all of this up.

And Armory ran third in a G1 to Victor Lodorum at the Arc meeting when it was bottomless while Sir D was also top 5 in the Derby and St Leger on rock hard tracks. So this all just seems made up to be perfectly honest.

No reasoned form analyst on earth could have Armory 'well in front' of Sir Dragonet.
 
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iluvparis said:
Would love to know on what possible basis you could make this claim (this just in - there is none).

Track was Good-to-yielding when Sir D beat home Armory (so not wet) - Armory has never beaten Sir Dragonet home - Sir D won their only meeting comfortably so forgive me if I think you are making all of this up.

And Armory ran third in a G1 to Victor Lodorum at the Arc meeting when it was bottomless while Sir D was also top 5 in the Derby and St Leger on rock hard tracks. So this all just seems made up to be perfectly honest.

No reasoned form analyst on earth could have Armory 'well in front' of Sir Dragonet.
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Well the Handicapper seem to agree there's not much in it with most of his recent runs being rated better than BD in their eyes, I guess you could classify them as reasoned form analyst.
 
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Just a quick look at the Handicappers view, pretty tight.

Armory - 120
Aspetar - 118
Verry Elleegant - 117
Sir Dragonet - 117
Russian Camelot - 108 (+1) +Improvement
 

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VE officially penned - https://www.racenet.com.au/news/soft-hands-zahra-wins-verry-elleegant-spring-ride-20200925

“While there is no doubt Verry Elleegant would be in the Cox Plate up to her ears, we are hellbent on preserving her longevity, recognising that while she has matured dramatically in the last 12 months, she is still not the most robust of horses,” Sokolski said.

Because nothing preserves a mare's longevity like running it with 55 kegs in both cups
 
frantelle said:
Such a strange year to keep track of everything, but I don’t recall how it went in the Guineas?
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Probably because the Guineas is two weeks away - it bolted in the Stutt Stakes on Saturday night.

Would honestly probably have it as second best local hope as a runner in my 'any 3yo blind' selection I mentioned a month ago.
 
FallingLiefs said:
FI looked to enjoy 2000m yesterday and dare i say further?

They rode him timidly so deserved to come late but he was strong at and through the line.
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Not saying FI is hopeless at 2000m just that at it evens the two up compared to 1600m. More about Avi being better at 2000m than 1600m.
 
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