AFL 2020 Brownlow Medal

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Just a side note:

When I started doing these counts on here back in 2010 - this was a really active topic with heaps of posters and opinions. That infamous Judd year seemed to scare a few off and it dropped off a little over the years. Each year I've kept posting my counts and always enjoyed the comparisons/the banter/the chat and the challenge this poses throughout the season for all of us. I never forget that first year when a couple of "big name" posters back in the day were really dismissive of my counts and one actually said "don't listen to newbies" blah blah blah....after that year's result he Swanned off rarely to be seen again :).

Had been getting a bit concerned the last couple of years that interest had been dropping off and therefore less counts/opinions etc and pondered whether or not to start up the thread again this year. Really glad I did because much of the discussion and analysis this year is the best it has been in years. Not all of us agree on the counts/individual players/teams/games etc but that shows just how much interest so many are taking in it and more importantly - the time so many are taking to analyse games and give their opinions. Some of the spreadsheets and research this year are just fantastic to see.

Even if our opinions may differ - the one thing we are all looking to do is beat the bookies and really hope we can all make some good $ this year and make all of the research worthwhile. Many really deserve it for the work that has been put in by so many this year.

Cheers
TJM
 
Would love to see some of you in the hottest 100 thread after this. It’s my favourite betting event, this is 2nd.
 
jack 231 said:
Would love to see some of you in the hottest 100 thread after this. It’s my favourite betting event, this is 2nd.
Click to expand...
Would love for us to discuss some of the best bets when more markets open up.
Personally can’t wait for individual lines.

My “safe” multi is:
Cripps
Fyfe
Merrett
Lyons (w/o Neale)
@6.22
 

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Johnsonator said:
Would love for us to discuss some of the best bets when more markets open up.
Personally can’t wait for individual lines.

My “safe” multi is:
Cripps
Fyfe
Merrett
Lyons (w/o Neale)
@6.22
Click to expand...

Cripps
Fyfe
Merrett
Trac
@4.22

Sounds “safe” to me. Will be using these legs as a base for a lot of multies with different variations so we’ll see how it goes.
 
Also in reference to the Brownlow threads of years ago, didn’t this forum go belly up because someone sold everyone’s hard work to the corps and then they used that to frame markets with no cream?? That’s what happened from my memory....
 
Gazza Guru said:
What is the hottest 100 thread ? Must be awesome if better than the Brownlow multis.
Click to expand...
It’s actually similar to this only it’s not afl. You Bet on the triple j hottest 100 music event. Winner, top 5/10, h2h, artist with most songs etc. it’s a betting wet dream. Also it’s based on stats much like this so it doesn’t truly feel like gambling. Last few times I’ve had wins in the $10’000s and bigfooty crowd seems to always do well- but all depends on bankroll and how much you want to risk.

Anyway will try not to detract this thread just got excited and mentioned it.
 
Geeves Train said:
Also in reference to the Brownlow threads of years ago, didn’t this forum go belly up because someone sold everyone’s hard work to the corps and then they used that to frame markets with no cream?? That’s what happened from my memory....
Click to expand...
Scary thought. Could TJM just ask everyone to save the info they need then delete thread and restart?
 
Leeroy Brown 15 said:
Cripps
Fyfe
Merrett
Trac
@4.22

Sounds “safe” to me. Will be using these legs as a base for a lot of multies with different variations so we’ll see how it goes.
Click to expand...

Just my opinion but I reckon you can find a better safe multi around that price.
Gawn has to be a chance to worry Trac out of it if Trac polls a bit off. I don’t think that Merrett is a sure thing either even tho he should win but surely not worth it at $1.15. The bookies obv think that Walsh well in front which makes the Cripps one some concern also. I do think Cripps wins tho.
Fyfe is the 1 safe one on your list I reckon.
 

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I'm not sure if this has been discussed in this forum, but has anyone been able to access the AFL Brownlow Predictor full data set for this year? Normally they give a full table, but this year they have only given a Top 15.
 
jack 231 said:
Scary thought. Could TJM just ask everyone to save the info they need then delete thread and restart?
Click to expand...

Haha too late and doesn’t matter now, must have been 10 years ago when Brownlow King absolutely nailed it one year (I am talking Lenny Haynes going up $6 and Nick Riewoldt $1.25, think like Tomahawk vs Dangerfield this year AND absolute locks going up $1.50) and then the next year all the guns went offline and private and they spent hours upon hours (probably similar to plenty this year) discussing the votes round by round because it was such a goldmine and someone logged it on a website and I’d imagine (and I’m only piecing it together) sold that detail to corporates and they went up basically the right prices and everyone had a meltdown.

Quite sad tbh and I think crippled this chat for a few years. Others still around here would probably know more than me!!
 
Big drift for Nic Nat in top WCE votes gone from $1.90 to $2.75.

Just a bit of an interesting stats:

1) He has only polled in 1 game in his career in a Lost match.
2) All of his votes have been at Subiaco Oval-23 votes all up . Surprisingly he has never polled a single vote outside of WA.

I compiled the most votes forward by umpire to Nic nat in his career:

1601291534939.png


The Eagles lose in Rounds 2,3,4,14 and he doesn't play in Round 16. So you can probably rule out votes there.

From the prediction models the game he is expected to Poll or has a chance in are: Rounds 5,9,11,12,13 and 17. Dalgeish umpires 2 of those 6 games Nic Nat is involved for potential votes. (Rounds 9 and 11)

Its clear when he plays outside of WA, the umpires don't rate him or his tap work.
 
Geeves Train said:
Haha too late and doesn’t matter now, must have been 10 years ago when Brownlow King absolutely nailed it one year (I am talking Lenny Haynes going up $6 and Nick Riewoldt $1.25, think like Tomahawk vs Dangerfield this year AND absolute locks going up $1.50) and then the next year all the guns went offline and private and they spent hours upon hours (probably similar to plenty this year) discussing the votes round by round because it was such a goldmine and someone logged it on a website and I’d imagine (and I’m only piecing it together) sold that detail to corporates and they went up basically the right prices and everyone had a meltdown.

Quite sad tbh and I think crippled this chat for a few years. Others still around here would probably know more than me!!
Click to expand...
I remember Brownlow king come to think of it but I remember him getting Sam Mitchell wrong or something, that was the last time I heard of
 
NYRB said:
Big drift for Nic Nat in top WCE votes gone from $1.90 to $2.75.

Just a bit of an interesting stats:

1) He has only polled in 1 game in his career in a Lost match.
2) All of his votes have been at Subiaco Oval-23 votes all up . Surprisingly he has never polled a single vote outside of WA.

I compiled the most votes forward by umpire to Nic nat in his career:

View attachment 972792


The Eagles lose in Rounds 2,3,4,14 and he doesn't play in Round 16. So you can probably rule out votes there.

From the prediction models the game he is expected to Poll or has a chance in are: Rounds 5,9,11,12,13 and 17. Dalgeish umpires 2 of those 6 games Nic Nat is involved for potential votes. (Rounds 9 and 11)

Its clear when he plays outside of WA, the umpires don't rate him or his tap work.
Click to expand...

When was Nicnat $1.90 ? He hung around $3.50 or so for ages and has trimmed up a little over the last week or so.
 
NYRB said:
Big drift for Nic Nat in top WCE votes gone from $1.90 to $2.75.

Just a bit of an interesting stats:

1) He has only polled in 1 game in his career in a Lost match.
2) All of his votes have been at Subiaco Oval-23 votes all up . Surprisingly he has never polled a single vote outside of WA.

I compiled the most votes forward by umpire to Nic nat in his career:

View attachment 972792


The Eagles lose in Rounds 2,3,4,14 and he doesn't play in Round 16. So you can probably rule out votes there.

From the prediction models the game he is expected to Poll or has a chance in are: Rounds 5,9,11,12,13 and 17. Dalgeish umpires 2 of those 6 games Nic Nat is involved for potential votes. (Rounds 9 and 11)

Its clear when he plays outside of WA, the umpires don't rate him or his tap work.
Click to expand...
How do you find this info?

Would love to know the umps that vote for ruckmen.
 
jack 231 said:
Would love to see some of you in the hottest 100 thread after this. It’s my favourite betting event, this is 2nd.
Click to expand...
I did follow the Hottest 100 thread last year actually. My current music knowledge is only middling but did get Billie Ellish at around $8 or so. Got a few "how many songs in top 100" for various artists but its not my peak knowledge area by any stretch.
Also found that Warmtunas reliability has slipped in the last couple of years with corporates largely just watching his poll and adjusting accordingly and too quickly.
 
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