AFL 2020 Brownlow Medal

[TheJanuaryMan]

Intrigued. Though I mostly listen to weird electronic music on soundcloud, maybe its not for me?

Do they do a Carpenters Hottest 20? That might reel me in to do some research.

 

[NYRB]

I love that site and go onto it a fair bit. I’m not sure how they make any $ as no ads on there.
Has the lifetime game by game polling history of every player which is very handy.

if they needed a donation, would be happy to support them. Very reliable

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Also in reference to the Brownlow threads of years ago, didn’t this forum go belly up because someone sold everyone’s hard work to the corps and then they used that to frame markets with no cream?? That’s what happened from my memory....

You are broadly correct I understand. I was asked a number of times to join private Brownlow rooms and chat groups but always politely refused. I remember there was a big fallout one year from something very close to what you are describing though - corporates seemed to put out markets with no value very suddenly.
I've mentioned before I had at least one PM in the last year from a new account which used language which got my attention immediately. There were a couple of terms used that only a corporate would refer to. I didn't bite to their suggestion for sharing further data to what I post on here

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

Haha too late and doesn’t matter now, must have been 10 years ago when Brownlow King absolutely nailed it one year (I am talking Lenny Haynes going up $6 and Nick Riewoldt $1.25, think like Tomahawk vs Dangerfield this year AND absolute locks going up $1.50) and then the next year all the guns went offline and private and they spent hours upon hours (probably similar to plenty this year) discussing the votes round by round because it was such a goldmine and someone logged it on a website and I’d imagine (and I’m only piecing it together) sold that detail to corporates and they went up basically the right prices and everyone had a meltdown.

Quite sad tbh and I think crippled this chat for a few years. Others still around here would probably know more than me!!

You're right on the money I believe.
If corporates trawl this thread - then best of luck to them. I'd like to think they do some more research on their markets than a Bigfooty thread.

If they do - then PM us for our account details upon which to load some bonus bets to thank us for our work

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

I remember Brownlow king come to think of it but I remember him getting Sam Mitchell wrong or something, that was the last time I heard of

Brownlow King was 2013 and he went on the Footy Show declaring Mitchell as his winner.
GAJ won that year with 28 votes.
Mitchell scored 16 but was backed off the map with bookies that year from double figures into 5s or so on the day of the count.
There was a theory that BK actually was all over GAJ but wanted to shift the odds somewhat (not a bad theory).

He tipped Joel Selwood in 2014 (no shame in that BTW - I had him high that season) but he finished 5 shy of Priddis.
Haven't really seen him around again after that much.

 

[Gazza Guru]

For my safe multi I’m on :

Mitchell
Fyfe
Cripps ( bookies price worries me - I have him 9 in front of Walsh and cannot understand why Walsh is odds on )
Whitfield

Price at TAB = $5.65

I would then rotate 1 of them out and add 1 at a time of Pendles / Danger / Wines ( no Boak ). Then add 2 of these 3 with 1 of the locks missing then all 3 of them. I’d then do the lot.
I reckon that the 4 mentioned at the top should win.
I then tuck each of Nicnat and Kelly ( less stake on him ) on the end of the larger leg ones.

 

[Geeves Train]

An

You are broadly correct I understand. I was asked a number of times to join private Brownlow rooms and chat groups but always politely refused. I remember there was a big fallout one year from something very close to what you are describing though - corporates seemed to put out markets with no value very suddenly.
I've mentioned before I had at least one PM in the last year from a new account which used language which got my attention immediately. There were a couple of terms used that only a corporate would refer to. I didn't bite to their suggestion for sharing further data to what I post on here

Anyone who suggests corps don’t sniff around in here are kidding themselves. Not so much the current odds but the round by round counts they would 100% cross reference!!

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

An


Anyone who suggests corps don’t sniff around in here are kidding themselves. Not so much the current odds but the round by round counts they would 100% cross reference!!

Thanks for the reminder. I had to amend my round 6 votes for Syd v GWS
3 J Cameron (GWS)
2 R Fox (Syd)
1 L Ash (GWS)

 

[DeliciousBagel0]

That is just fantastic work - really well done.

One minor thing with mine - while I'm aware a couple of posters have a bee in their bonnet over how many projected votes I have Sheed on - I don't have him winning the WB votes also . WB I have Bont 14 and Macrae on 13.

Ha! I've amended the spreadsheet now so should look correct. Appreciate the work you do

 

[Geeves Train]

Brownlow King was 2013 and he went on the Footy Show declaring Mitchell as his winner.
GAJ won that year with 28 votes.
Mitchell scored 16 but was backed off the map with bookies that year from double figures into 5s or so on the day of the count.
There was a theory that BK actually was all over GAJ but wanted to shift the odds somewhat (not a bad theory).

He tipped Joel Selwood in 2014 (no shame in that BTW - I had him high that season) but he finished 5 shy of Priddis.
Haven't really seen him around again after that much.

I don’t think he ever went as well as maybe 2011 or 2012 but I’d guess he still had plenty after those years. I’m not sure when all the betting options kicked off but I’d guess it may have been around this time and the corps weren’t sharp for the first few years!!

 

[Johnsonator]

Where are you getting 6.22 for this?

Boosted on SB on Friday. Cripps has since come in from $2.56 to $2.00, so I guess it would no longer be paying that.

But in terms of all our predicted votes, Cripps is technically “safer” than Dangerfield, Mitchell, Adams and Wines.

 

[NYRB]

Rd 15 Adel v Hawthorn

3 O'Brien
2 M Crouch
1 Keays

Tough game to predict for the votes. Think the 1 vote could between: B Crouch, Keays, Laird and Mitchell. Was a tough game to predict for 3 votes and votes in general. Pretty sure there is a clear gap between the best 2 players and the rest in this match. I'm confident M Crouch played the better game than Laird here. Not so confident M Crouch played a better game that O'Brien, who took around 6 contested marks. O'Brien also had the equal most contested possessions on the night with Brad Crouch. O'Briens game just seemed to stand out more and I think the umpires will notice that. Keays kicked a goal , which I think will swing the vote to him over Laird- who I have seen in a few tallies polling here.

This match is the start of Adelaide's winning running of 3 matches, so think its a pretty important vote to determine who Adelaide teams winner here.


To get the 3 votes here (assuming no bookie margin), I'd price it:

O'Brien $2.63
M Crouch $2.78
Keays $7.69
B Crouch $14.29
Laird $25
Other Player $100


A Market to Poll a vote in this match? (Either 3, 2 or 1 vote)
O'Brien $1.20
M Crouch $1.14
Keays $1.90
Laird $2.30
B Crouch $2.16
Mitchell $5.00

 

[NYRB]

Adelaide v GWS Round 16:

3 Laird
2 M Crouch
1 O'Brien

Laird was the best player on the ground with 11 clearances, more than double that of the next player. 1 vote could have gone to : B Crouch, Whitfield or O'Brien. O'Brien had 43 hit outs, of which 8 were to advantage and he also had a goal assist. By this time of the season, the umpires and the competition know how good a player he is and the hype around him being possibly the leading club best and fairest for the season. In 2019, O'Brien had 54 hit outs the most for him during the season and he polled 2 votes. So 43 under the shortened quarters equates to 53.75 under the 20 minute quarters. Brad Crouch snagged 1 vote last year against GWS at the same ground, with similar stats to his brother, except Matt kicked 0 goals. Matt kicked 1 goal in this game with similar stats to Brad Crouch. Think that may be enough to persuade the umpires to give Matt the 2 votes here.

Either way, one of Matt or Brad Crouch will get the 2 votes. Don't think both poll here.

Think the 1 vote could easily go to one of the 3 players mentioned.

To get the 3 votes here (assuming no bookie margin):
Laird $2.56
M Crouch $2.94
O'Brien $10
Whitfield $11.10
B Crouch $14.29
Other Player $100

(PS: This is not a good outcome for me as most of my multis have M Crouch leading the poll for Adelaide votes. )

 

[shepherdodin]

Adelaide v GWS Round 16:

3 Laird
2 M Crouch
1 O'Brien

Laird was the best player on the ground with 11 clearances, more than double that of the next player. 1 vote could have gone to : B Crouch, Whitfield or O'Brien. O'Brien had 43 hit outs, of which 8 were to advantage and he also had a goal assist. By this time of the season, the umpires and the competition know how good a player he is and the hype around him being possibly the leading club best and fairest for the season. In 2019, O'Brien had 54 hit outs the most for him during the season and he polled 2 votes. So 43 under the shortened quarters equates to 53.75 under the 20 minute quarters. Brad Crouch snagged 1 vote last year against GWS at the same ground, with similar stats to his brother, except Matt kicked 0 goals. Matt kicked 1 goal in this game with similar stats to Brad Crouch. Think that may be enough to persuade the umpires to give Matt the 2 votes here.

Either way, one of Matt or Brad Crouch will get the 2 votes. Don't think both poll here.

Think the 1 vote could easily go to one of the 3 players mentioned.

To get the 3 votes here (assuming no bookie margin):
Laird $2.56
M Crouch $2.94
O'Brien $10
Whitfield $11.10
B Crouch $14.29
Other Player $100

(PS: This is not a good outcome for me as most of my multis have M Crouch leading the poll for Adelaide votes. )

Thanks so much! What's your updated Laird/Crouch expected outcome based on these re-watchings?

 

[Young Gun #6]

I actually got the following on tabtouch a week before round 18 and don’t even have Walsh leading but he was too good of value at $3.50 to pass up.

Mitchell was $1.85 heading into the last round.
Crouch $4.50
Fyfe $1.45
Whitfield $2.85

 

[HTPunter]

SB have Rockliff $3.50 Wines $4 for top 10 finish, but Wines $2 Rockliff $3 most votes PA without Boak.

Wonder why?

 

[NYRB]

Thanks so much! What's your updated Laird/Crouch expected outcome based on these re-watchings?

Im basing my votes off The January Man's votes, with a few tweaks and changes from the games I have watched. (2 Adelaide games in my review) So I guess you can work backwards from there and calculate the votes.

After watching last nights matches, its a bad night for M Crouch and a good night for O'Brien. Also a good outcome for Laird -Adelaide leading vote gettors.

If Matt Crouch can't poll better than O'Brien in those 2 games (GWS and Hawthorn), don't think he can win the Adelaide count. At the moment, M Crouch is behind Laird in my count.

I still have to watch Adelaide v Carlton tonight. (A game where M Crouch isn't expected to poll)

 

[shepherdodin]

Im basing my votes off The January Man's votes, with a few tweaks and changes from the games I have watched. (2 Adelaide games in my review) So I guess you can work backwards from there and calculate the votes.

After watching last nights matches, its a bad night for M Crouch and a good night for O'Brien. Also a good outcome for Laird -Adelaide leading vote gettors.

If Matt Crouch can't poll better than O'Brien in those 2 games (GWS and Hawthorn), don't think he can win the Adelaide count. At the moment, M Crouch is behind Laird in my count.

I still have to watch Adelaide v Carlton tonight. (A game where M Crouch isn't expected to poll)

Got it, this is very bad for me too. Guess I'll have to add a whole bunch more multis to account for this, thanks a lot. Though I'll wait for the rest of your Adelaide watch with interest.

 

[Analysis Paralysis]

Im basing my votes off The January Man's votes, with a few tweaks and changes from the games I have watched. (2 Adelaide games in my review) So I guess you can work backwards from there and calculate the votes.

After watching last nights matches, its a bad night for M Crouch and a good night for O'Brien. Also a good outcome for Laird -Adelaide leading vote gettors.

If Matt Crouch can't poll better than O'Brien in those 2 games (GWS and Hawthorn), don't think he can win the Adelaide count. At the moment, M Crouch is behind Laird in my count.

I still have to watch Adelaide v Carlton tonight. (A game where M Crouch isn't expected to poll)

Thanks for your 3-vote hypothetical markets.

I'm salivating a little - I'll be looking for M Crouch (Round 15) and R Laird (Round 16)...

 

[NonPhixion]

* me by Brownlow night I’m going to have a superfund of investments with all these bets

 

[Sausage Legs]

fu** me by Brownlow night I’m going to have a superfund of investments with all these bets

And the markets haven't even really started

 

[Sausage Legs]

My biggest tip / advice for the half newbies would be to not let one player blow ur stack. Vary ur multis a little.
Example, a cupl years ago I thought clarry Oliver was a morale to top the dees. Put him in every multi, backed him in the handicap markets, thought he was a good price in a few of the groups markets and head to heads. All dead. By all means back player/s that u like, but don't let one player do ur balls on the nite.

 

[the_big_sav]

will there be more markets after this weekend?

 

[Young Gun #6]

SB have Rockliff $3.50 Wines $4 for top 10 finish, but Wines $2 Rockliff $3 most votes PA without Boak.

Wonder why?

There’s a heap of anomalies like that. I think it’s purely based on a heap of money in one market for one of them and potentially not a whole lot in the others. Similar to Fyfe like 5th fav for top 5 in markets but 13th fav for top 10.

 

[Geeves Train]

My biggest tip / advice for the half newbies would be to not let one player blow ur stack. Vary ur multis a little.
Example, a cupl years ago I thought clarry Oliver was a morale to top the dees. Put him in every multi, backed him in the handicap markets, thought he was a good price in a few of the groups markets and head to heads. All dead. By all means back player/s that u like, but don't let one player do ur balls on the nite.

Unless it’s Fyfe, cannot have enough multis with Fyfe winning Freo vote