Is the MCG a big advantage on Grand Final Day for Victorians against Interstate Sides? /Are Interstaters advantaged during the home and away season?

[Final Siren]

You just get the graphs mate

So where did you get your numbers from? Just eyeballing the charts?

A bit hard to say anything without detail. It seems to be a more limited study than this one, which saw a 50% drop in home advantage across all soccer leagues:

 

[Final Siren]

Nah I disagree, you can’t change it. The amount of people who buy flights, accomodation it would be amateur hour and unfair on the host city.

I do prefer the bye pre grand final ala super bowl to do all the awards, state league grand finals, nab league show case etc

It'd obviously be harder to organize if we awarded the GF to the minor premier's city, but you'd have a month at a minimum, and would have a pretty good idea of how likely it was several months in advance.

For the price of that extra hassle, you get a Grand Final with a really good chance of having at least one competing team from the host city.

Which is a big deal! You get the excitement of teams battling it out to claim the GF for their state.

With a rotation, on the other hand, you're looking at regularly playing GFs in cities that don't care that much about either competing team, while all their fans sit at home in another state. I can't see that ever happening - it leaves a ton of money on the table and upsets the majority of fans just so you can say that the GF was somewhere other than Victoria.

 

[bh90210fan]

So where did you get your numbers from? Just eyeballing the charts?

A bit hard to say anything without detail. It seems to be a more limited study than this one, which saw a 50% drop in home advantage across all soccer leagues:

Thanks for that, very interesting. There’s no denying crowds have an impact on hga. The link I provided shows that without them the advantage is dented, while yours it is cut in half. In both though what is proven is that even without crowds, hga remains strong and teams are still much more likely to win at home.

 

[kranky al]

Thanks for that, very interesting. There’s no denying crowds have an impact on hga. The link I provided shows that without them the advantage is dented, while yours it is cut in half. In both though what is proven is that even without crowds, hga remains strong and teams are still much more likely to win at home.

id rather play a gf at optus with 100% oppo fans than mcg with 100% eagles fans....

 

[flamingEMBERS]

Why Melbourne every 2nd year?

Current weight of teams in Melbourne makes sense to do it that way.

 

[flamingEMBERS]

With a rotation, on the other hand, you're looking at regularly playing GFs in cities that don't care that much about either competing team, while all their fans sit at home in another state. I can't see that ever happening - it leaves a ton of money on the table and upsets the majority of fans just so you can say that the GF was somewhere other than Victoria.

You’re telling me the saints play the tigers in a Sydney grand final, 40000 members won’t make the trek. People will make the trek if they don’t have tickets on the hope of getting tickets. Guaranteed to sell out.

People miss out on tickets in a gf anyhow so it’s no big deal.

 

[doppleganger]

This one shows hga dropped only a couple of %

Empty stadiums have shrunk football teams’ home advantage

Officiating bias disappears without fans, but clubs still play better at home

www.economist.com

17 different divisions of soccer leagues across Europe, an overall drop in home wins from 58% to 56%. 7 of the 17 leagues actually experienced an increase in home wins without crowds

the title of your link sums it up

Empty stadiums have shrunk football teams’ home advantage

Your link shows

All 16 leagues report reduction in ‘home cooking’ from the referee.

And 13 of 16 leagues show a reduction in chances created, the expected scoring.

Not sure what point you are trying to make? Trying to not pick how big ‘shrunk’ actually is? But that link backs up the point...if you don’t have a stadium that is full of home fans any advantage is reduced.

And as per final sirens piece HGA halved....a 50% reduction in advantage!!

Guess what happens on GF day....it isn’t a one sided crowd. So any advantage that exists in normal home and away is reduced.

What else changes?

The weekly routine - yep, a ‘home’ team doesn’t enjoy normal routine.

If a GF doesn’t reflect normal home game environment and conditions, surely it holds that the normal advantage also would be altered....so you end up with what 25% of any regular advantage?

 

[Purple Suit]

It'd obviously be harder to organize if we awarded the GF to the minor premier's city, but you'd have a month at a minimum, and would have a pretty good idea of how likely it was several months in advance.

For the price of that extra hassle, you get a Grand Final with a really good chance of having at least one competing team from the host city.

Which is a big deal! You get the excitement of teams battling it out to claim the GF for their state.

With a rotation, on the other hand, you're looking at regularly playing GFs in cities that don't care that much about either competing team, while all their fans sit at home in another state. I can't see that ever happening - it leaves a ton of money on the table and upsets the majority of fans just so you can say that the GF was somewhere other than Victoria.

I don't think it leaves any money on the table. The host city gets an influx of cash from all the interstate visitors so maybe a small kickback can replace the lost revenue from seats. About time Victorians can travel for a GF for once.

The AFL has shown it's hand that revenue is not a major driver. Can't wait for this new found fairness and equity coming into the competition.

 

[Final Siren]

You’re telling me the saints play the tigers in a Sydney grand final, 40000 members won’t make the trek. People will make the trek if they don’t have tickets on the hope of getting tickets. Guaranteed to sell out.

People miss out on tickets in a gf anyhow so it’s no big deal.

Yeah they would, but they'd all be complaining about having to travel to Sydney. And this would happen 78% of the time the GF rotates outside of Victoria - neither competing team would belong to the home state.

There's just too many bad combinations for a fixed GF rotation to work, for mine. You'd get a West Coast v Fremantle Grand Final in Brisbane one year and Collingwood v Richmond in Perth the next.

Minor premier hosts is the most practical solution in terms of sharing the GF around and actually putting the game where the fans are.

 

[bh90210fan]

the title of your link sums it up

Empty stadiums have shrunk football teams’ home advantage

Your link shows

All 16 leagues report reduction in ‘home cooking’ from the referee.

And 13 of 16 leagues show a reduction in chances created, the expected scoring.

Not sure what point you are trying to make? Trying to not pick how big ‘shrunk’ actually is? But that link backs up the point...if you don’t have a stadium that is full of home fans any advantage is reduced.

And as per final sirens piece HGA halved....a 50% reduction in advantage!!

Guess what happens on GF day....it isn’t a one sided crowd. So any advantage that exists in normal home and away is reduced.

What else changes?

The weekly routine - yep, a ‘home’ team doesn’t enjoy normal routine.

If a GF doesn’t reflect normal home game environment and conditions, surely it holds that the normal advantage also would be altered....so you end up with what 25% of any regular advantage?

Even without biased referees, home teams still win more than away teams

This is because teams play better at home, creating more chances to score

you missed those headlines. Nice to see you come round and admit mcg teams are advantaged on grand final day.

 

[Final Siren]

Thanks for that, very interesting. There’s no denying crowds have an impact on hga. The link I provided shows that without them the advantage is dented, while yours it is cut in half. In both though what is proven is that even without crowds, hga remains strong and teams are still much more likely to win at home.

Well "much" might be pushing it; we're talking about somewhere around 6 extra wins every 100 home games. In an AFL season, that's only 1.3 extra wins even if you played all 22 games at home.

With crowds, I find it pretty compelling that around half of HGA vanished overnight along with crowds - which pegs it as roughly equivalent to every other factor put together (travel, familiarity, psychology, ground shape, local weather, etc etc).

 

[HTT]

Honestly this is pretty dumb, there’s already no social distancing in the stadium now since we all sit together in large groups, they should just pack the place.

Only argument I can see is a threshold for transport, being jammed in a train is a much higher risk than sitting in an outdoor stadium. But without knowing it all works around the Gabba I can't really judge.

At the MCG for example I couldn't see 100k being any worse than 75k. In H&A/early finals there's no noticeable difference leaving the ground once the crowd is over 70k. And on GF day people don't all go from the ground to the station within 15min of the siren like normal.

 

[doppleganger]

Even without biased referees, home teams still win more than away teams

This is because teams play better at home, creating more chances to score

you missed those headlines. Nice to see you come round and admit mcg teams are advantaged on grand final day.

I think you have an interesting interpretation of your supposed stats.

The entire premise is people universally agree that home advantage exists. But there are multiple theories as to the causes.

Plenty of instances where an advantage exists between teams from the same city, so what factor does travel actually cause.

It has been demonstrated that in one scenario for a specific sport that the advantage has halved when you take away the crowd...that is huge.

A GF also not characterised by regular home crowd dominance, so any supposed advantage would also reduce...wouldn’t it.

What else is different in a GF - routine, pressure, stimulation - all are different to a ‘normal home game’.

The old ground familiarity is brought up, but take a look at US sports...baseball the sport that is primarily played outdoors on different sized fields has easily the lowest home ground advantage of the big 4. Basketball a game played on identical dimensions, fecking inside, has the biggest HGA....here is a hint, the fans are closest to the arena compared to MLB.

So you start to question how ‘significant ‘ground familiarity’ actually is....isn’t North able to creat a home advantage in Tassie by playing just 2 or 3 games down there!?

So any marginal advantage afforded to a few Melbourne based teams in the GF, is more than offset by the removal of actual home ground advantage during the qualifying H&A season.

So much so that the non-Melbourne teams don’t actually have any problem finishing top4 and winning premierships when they are good enough.

The problem is that actually retaining a proper home ground advantage gives the non-Melbourne teams a leg up in H&A.

 

[kranky al]

I think you have an interesting interpretation of your supposed stats.

The entire premise is people universally agree that home advantage exists. But there are multiple theories as to the causes.

Plenty of instances where an advantage exists between teams from the same city, so what factor does travel actually cause.

It has been demonstrated that in one scenario for a specific sport that the advantage has halved when you take away the crowd...that is huge.

A GF also not characterised by regular home crowd dominance, so any supposed advantage would also reduce...wouldn’t it.

What else is different in a GF - routine, pressure, stimulation - all are different to a ‘normal home game’.

The old ground familiarity is brought up, but take a look at US sports...baseball the sport that is primarily played outdoors on different sized fields has easily the lowest home ground advantage of the big 4. Basketball a game played on identical dimensions, fecking inside, has the biggest HGA....here is a hint, the fans are closest to the arena compared to MLB.

So you start to question how ‘significant ‘ground familiarity’ actually is....isn’t North able to creat a home advantage in Tassie by playing just 2 or 3 games down there!?

So any marginal advantage afforded to a few Melbourne based teams in the GF, is more than offset by the removal of actual home ground advantage during the qualifying H&A season.

So much so that the non-Melbourne teams don’t actually have any problem finishing top4 and winning premierships when they are good enough.

The problem is that actually retaining a proper home ground advantage gives the non-Melbourne teams a leg up in H&A.

the north thing is pretty easy

its f#{#% freezing down there - when i toured tassie their autumn was unbearable for me

as is victorias winter.

just as melbourne teams often struggle with the heat in wa/ qld / nt in parts of the season so do interstate teams struggle with the cold in tasmania

 

[doppleganger]

the north thing is pretty easy

its f#{#% freezing down there - when i toured tassie their autumn was unbearable for me

as is victorias winter.

just as melbourne teams often struggle with the heat in wa/ qld / nt in parts of the season so do interstate teams struggle with the cold in tasmania

But come GF day it is spring in Melbourne and often warm, like in 2015 when it was high 20s.

Doesn’t that favour teams like the Eagles, as Melbourne September weather more like a WA winter!?

 

[Coolangatta]

Reposting this from another thread: If the minor premier's state hosted the GF, they would have lacked a GF team only 3 times since 2000 - which is the same number of times it's happened at the MCG:

2020: SA: ? - Port/Rich v Bris/Gee
2019: Vic: Richmond v GWS
2018: Vic: West Coast v Collingwood
2017: SA: Adelaide v Richmond
2016: NSW: Sydney v Bulldogs
2015: WA: West Coast v Hawthorn
2014: NSW: Sydney v Hawthorn
2013: Vic: Hawthorn v Fremantle
2012: Vic: Hawthorn v Sydney
2011: Vic: Collingwood v Geelong
2010: Vic: Collingwood v St Kilda
2009: Vic: St Kilda v Geelong
2008: Vic: Geelong v Hawthorn
2007: Vic: Geelong v Port Adelaide
2006: WA: West Coast v Sydney
2005: SA: West Coast v Sydney
2004: SA: Port Adelaide v Brisbane
2003: SA: Collingwood v Brisbane
2002: SA: Brisbane v Collingwood
2001: Vic: Essendon v Brisbane
2000: Vic: Essendon v Melbourne

We got lucky with a few of those, but it would have worked out remarkably well.

A rotating Grand Final, on the other hand, would hit this problem very often, since every time it's out of Victoria, there's a 78.4% chance of having two orphan teams.

Yeah, it'd work out well, and 5 weeks out from the grand final is still enough time to prepare. It'd only be interstate rival grand finals at other grounds than their own or all Vic grand finals interstate that'd be a problem, which is why I think there should be a back-up option.

 

[Coolangatta]

Nah I disagree, you can’t change it. The amount of people who buy flights, accomodation it would be amateur hour and unfair on the host city.

I do prefer the bye pre grand final ala super bowl to do all the awards, state league grand finals, nab league show case etc

I suppose so. And going by how it would've looked from 2000-2019, the host state top of the ladder format would've worked out 100% effectively so far. I suspect that if there ever is an interstate rival grand final, that at least one of those sides will finish 1st anyway. If it's a Victorian side that finishes 1st, a derby or showdown grand final is better at the MCG than at the Gabba or the SCG.

But come to think of it, the back-up venue would probably still work out okay because you would still easily sell out an all Victorian grand final at the MCG, or a derby grand final in Perth, showdown GF @ AO etc.

 

[bh90210fan]

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5680743

They examined results for 6,481 professional soccer games in 17 countries before and after COVID-19 restrictions were put in place, and made a surprising finding.

The home-field advantage was still there — to a slightly smaller degree — even without boisterous crowds of fans to cheer them on and heckle their opponents, said economics professor James Reade.

found the share of matches ending in a home win fell from 43.8 per cent before the shutdown to 41.2 per cent after.

 

[bh90210fan]

I think you have an interesting interpretation of your supposed stats.

The entire premise is people universally agree that home advantage exists. But there are multiple theories as to the causes.

Plenty of instances where an advantage exists between teams from the same city, so what factor does travel actually cause.

It has been demonstrated that in one scenario for a specific sport that the advantage has halved when you take away the crowd...that is huge.

A GF also not characterised by regular home crowd dominance, so any supposed advantage would also reduce...wouldn’t it.

What else is different in a GF - routine, pressure, stimulation - all are different to a ‘normal home game’.

The old ground familiarity is brought up, but take a look at US sports...baseball the sport that is primarily played outdoors on different sized fields has easily the lowest home ground advantage of the big 4. Basketball a game played on identical dimensions, fecking inside, has the biggest HGA....here is a hint, the fans are closest to the arena compared to MLB.

So you start to question how ‘significant ‘ground familiarity’ actually is....isn’t North able to creat a home advantage in Tassie by playing just 2 or 3 games down there!?

So any marginal advantage afforded to a few Melbourne based teams in the GF, is more than offset by the removal of actual home ground advantage during the qualifying H&A season.

So much so that the non-Melbourne teams don’t actually have any problem finishing top4 and winning premierships when they are good enough.

The problem is that actually retaining a proper home ground advantage gives the non-Melbourne teams a leg up in H&A.

Just posted a link which shows the crowd has proven to have only a small degree of impact on hga. Almost 6500 professional soccer matches across 17 countries. Pretty substantial. Soccer fans are known to be the most hostile of any sport in the world and them missing didn’t change much

baseball has the least associated hga not because of the friggin crowd, but because results are driven more by the skills of a pitcher and a hitter. Outside influences are much less likely to effect a result. Cricket has a similar crowd setup and some of the most lopsided hga results in sports. Because of the pitch conditions. Nothing to do with the crowd.

Grand finals still heavily favour the home teams in terms of crowd support. Against a big Melbourne club you still get an advantage. Victorian clubs havent lost a free kick count against a non Victorian side for twenty years. (11 in a row) you’re still getting the rub of the green

north and Hawthorn are able to maintain home ground advantage in Tasmania as they play there regularly each year, have grown loyal support bases and play against sides who only play there once every few seasons. years worth of results show teams are not more likely to win against them in Tasmania literally no team would prefer to go there over Melbourne.

the fact you get to play 17 games on only two grounds each season means you’re one of the least disadvantaged sides in the comp, giving you an advantage in the h&a. Look which sides have the best h&a records in the afl era. It’s dominated by Victorian teams. Victorian clubs get pushed to either end of the ladder while non Victorian teams are likelier to find a spot in the middle. Even finishing top 4 doesn’t help much in winning a flag for us. Anything lower than second and we’re off at least twice - most likely three times to enemy territory to bring home the cup. We don’t get finals gifted to us unlike mcg tenants

try and provide some evidence which shows non Victorian sides are advantaged in the h&a instead of just waffling on.

 

[iameviljez]

The home-field advantage was still there — to a slightly smaller degree — even without boisterous crowds of fans to cheer them on and heckle their opponents, said economics professor James Reade.

This is my suspicion too.

And whether the MCG is a big advantage for Melbourne sides - of course it damn well is, the only question is *how much* of an advantage it is. To pretend otherwise is disingenuous.

 

[LoungeLizard]

Just posted a link which shows the crowd has proven to have only a small degree of impact on hga. Over 6500 professional soccer matches across 17 countries. Pretty substantial. Soccer fans are known to be the most hostile of any sport in the world and them missing didn’t change much

baseball has the least associated hga not because of the friggin crowd, but because results are driven more by the skills of a pitcher and a hitter. Outside influences are much less likely to effect a result. Cricket has a similar crowd setup and some of the most lopsided hga results in sports. Because of the pitch conditions. Nothing to do with the crowd.

Grand finals still heavily favour the home teams in terms of crowd support. Against a big Melbourne club you still get an advantage. Victorian clubs havent lost a free kick count against a non Victorian side for twenty years. (11 in a row) you’re still getting the rub of the green

north and Hawthorn are able to maintain home ground advantage in Tasmania as they play there regularly each year, have grown loyal support bases and play against sides who only play there once every few seasons. years worth of results show teams are not more likely to win against them in Tasmania literally no team would prefer to go there over Melbourne.

the fact you get to play 17 games on only two grounds each season means you’re one of the least disadvantaged sides in the comp, giving you an advantage in the h&a. Look which sides have the best h&a records in the afl era. It’s dominated by Victorian teams. Victorian clubs get pushed to either end of the ladder while non Victorian teams are likelier to find a spot in the middle. Even finishing top 4 doesn’t help much in winning a flag for us. Anything lower than second and we’re off at least twice - most likely three times to enemy territory to bring home the cup. We don’t get finals gifted to us unlike mcg tenants

try and provide some evidence which shows non Victorian sides are advantaged in the h&a instead of just waffling on.

WOW.
And not long ago in this thread we had a poster saying Vics had their heads in the sand.

Ok, let's all post like you do.

Find the evidence that supports an advantage in the GF.
50% says there is none.

We can all do this you know.

 

[bh90210fan]

WOW.
And not long ago in this thread we had a poster saying Vics had their heads in the sand.

Ok, let's all post like you do.

Find the evidence that supports an advantage in the GF.
50% says there is none.

We can all do this you know.

Have you been watching grand finals for the last twenty years? Looked at betting markets? West Coast were underdogs in their previous two grand finals - despite winning finals against Hawthorn and Collingwood leading into the game and finishing higher on the ladder. Why is that? How about all the commentary leading up the games. Everyone acknowledges the advantage Melbourne clubs get on grand final day. Most just hope for a contest nowadays - non Vics have won 2 flags in 13 years. And only just won them

 

[LoungeLizard]

Have you been watching grand finals for the last twenty years? Looked at betting markets? West Coast were underdogs in their previous two grand finals - despite winning finals against Hawthorn and Collingwood leading into the game and finishing higher on the ladder. Why is that? How about all the commentary leading up the games. Everyone acknowledges the advantage Melbourne clubs get on grand final day. Most just hope for a contest nowadays - non Vics have won 2 flags in 13 years. And only just won them

That's not evidence, that's you having a cry.

The evidence is 50% Vics and 50% non-Vics have won grand finals when matched against each other.

So come on evidence man, show us the evidence.

 

[bh90210fan]

That's not evidence, that's you having a cry.

The evidence is 50% Vics and 50% non-Vics have won grand finals when matched against each other.

So come on evidence man, show us the evidence.

Thousands of studies statistically proving the existence of home ground advantage should be enough for you. Have a look for yourself. A ride in the back of a Ute the day before and a song by jimmy Barnes at halftime doesn’t wipe it out you know

 

[LoungeLizard]

Thousands of studies statistically proving the existence of home ground advantage should be enough for you. Have a look for yourself. A ride in the back of a Ute the day before and a song by jimmy Barnes at halftime doesn’t wipe it out you know

This is the Grand Final we are talking about, not Home and Away, no-one has definitive evidence that determines what HGA is, most is guess work.
So, you want to stick your head in the sand and say non-Vics have no advantage during the home and away season, then what is wrong with Vics doing the same?

And all you can say is the last 13 years has been dominated by Vic, that's all you have, but have you considered, it took 13 years for Vics to catch up?