Is the MCG a big advantage on Grand Final Day for Victorians against Interstate Sides? /Are Interstaters advantaged during the home and away season?

[doppleganger]

Here’s squiggles analysis of hga in the 2018 h&a season. Even with the commonwealth games gifting Freo an extra home game they STILL walked away with less hga than Hawthorn!!

Fixture Analysis 2018: Home Ground Advantage - Squiggle

Note (July 2020): This post employs a very basic metric of Home Ground Advantage, where it’s basically all about geography. That’s good enough for roughing things, but I don’t believe it’s really the source of HGA, and my model hasn’t used something like this for a couple of years. The major...

squiggle.com.au

HOW ARE WE ADVANTAGED OVERALL???

Collingwood was above us!

Finalsiren had a crack, but some of the points don’t make sense.

Why is Hawthorn v StK in Tassie a +5 but Hawthorn v Port a +10?

How is it a limited advantage against StK but not a limited advantage against the others? What advantage do StK have in Tassie?

Similar to the actual acknowledgement re Melbourne, but still runs with +10.

This analysis may be too optimistic on Melbourne, even though they’re ranked fourth-last. That’s because the Demons host Adelaide and Fremantle in the Northern Territory, and these are classified as +10 games in Melbourne’s favour (hosting an interstate side at an alternative home ground), even though in practice, geography and history suggests it may not be deserved.

Then there is the how you treat Geelong games in Melbourne...why do Essendon get a +5 for a game against Geelong at the G? Geelong played 7 games there to Essendon’s 8.

 

[bh90210fan]

Finalsiren had a crack, but some of the points don’t make sense.

Why is Hawthorn v StK in Tassie a +5 but Hawthorn v Port a +10?

How is it a limited advantage against StK but not a limited advantage against the others? What advantage do StK have in Tassie?

Similar to the actual acknowledgement re Melbourne, but still runs with +10.

This analysis may be too optimistic on Melbourne, even though they’re ranked fourth-last. That’s because the Demons host Adelaide and Fremantle in the Northern Territory, and these are classified as +10 games in Melbourne’s favour (hosting an interstate side at an alternative home ground), even though in practice, geography and history suggests it may not be deserved.

Then there is the how you treat Geelong games in Melbourne...why do Essendon get a +5 for a game against Geelong at the G? Geelong played 7 games there to Essendon’s 8.

Love for you to show us one fixture where a non Victorian side is the most advantaged. Freo couldn’t even get the gong with an extra home game handed to them.

 

[Grin]

Home ground advantage hasn’t been debunked you nonse. It’s a statistically proven reality across sports worldwide. Even without crowds

It doesn’t just disappear on grand final day because the Black eyed peas get on stage for a few minutes

That's wonderfull for sports worldwide. The statistics paint a different picture for the AFL.

 

[bh90210fan]

That's wonderfull for sports worldwide. The statistics paint a different picture for the AFL.

Yeah, no it doesn’t

Here’s a ball, perhaps you’d like to bounce it

 

[Trent the flight Steward]

This argument's been well and truely debunked at least a few dozen times on this board.
You West Coasters really do believe that if you keep repeating the same rubbish, it eventually comes true.

AFL is one of the sports in the world where the grounds are totally different sizes. Home ground makes a massive difference, in today's football, where teams play full ground zones and mark space, look at the Adelaide oval and kardinia park dimensions to the MCG. Notice how Optus stadium was constructed to about the same dimensions as the g, next thing the Eagles win a flag, but looked horrible against the Hawks a couple of years earlier when Subi was their home ground.

The league has gone past having the grand final at the g, top team gets to play at home, they earn the right.

 

[Grin]

AFL is one of the sports in the world where the grounds are totally different sizes. Home ground makes a massive difference, in today's football, where teams play full ground zones and mark space, look at the Adelaide oval and kardinia park dimensions to the MCG. Notice how Optus stadium was constructed to about the same dimensions as the g, next thing the Eagles win a flag, but looked horrible against the Hawks a couple of years earlier when Subi was their home ground.

The league has gone past having the grand final at the g, top team gets to play at home, they earn the right.

I'm not 100% sure but I think statistically Geelong and West Coast have the biggest home ground advantages.
Statistically in the AFL there are home ground advantages in the home and away season and in finals. These statistics indicate a net advantage for non Victorian clubs.
There's no statistical evidence that Victorian teams have an advantage over non Victorian teams in grand finals at the MCG.

 

[Grin]

Yeah, no it doesn’t

Here’s a ball, perhaps you’d like to bounce it

Isn't it past your bedtime?

 

[bh90210fan]

Isn't it past your bedtime?

What do the statistics say for hga in the afl?

 

[Grin]

What do the statistics say for hga in the afl?

Read the post above the one you quoted.

 

[bh90210fan]

Read the post above the one you quoted.

Provide the statistics. I can say statistically Eskimos are more likely to become astronauts but that’s worth squat without evidence

 

[kranky al]

Hey, you are the one that wanted to put your head in the sand and say you have no advantage during H&A, i am just accommodating you.

So, let's just all post like you, no H&A advantage, no GF advantage.

2058 and beyond.

none of us are acknowledging that because its a roaring crock of s**t


we won 7/10 games in 2018 played against teams flying in and 2/2 against the dockers.

what propelled us into premiership contention was the 7 games we won on the road - with just as heavy a disadvantage - we lost to north in tasmania that year. wed likely have thrashed them in melbourne.

this whole interstate teams have a leg up from hga would only work if there was an imbalance in the h and a games

if we got 12 games at home against teams flying in and 8 away- you would have a case

 

[doppleganger]

Love for you to show us one fixture where a non Victorian side is the most advantaged. Freo couldn’t even get the gong with an extra home game handed to them

Just work it through, the actual application doesn’t make sense. It says North would have same advantage in a GF as Collingwood would have against West Coast at the G.

Freo got a -10 for a game in NT against Melbourne, but Port get a -1 for game in China?? WTF?

If it is acknowledged that Haw v StK in Tassie is a limited advantage, then it should be a consistent limited advantage across the board...as what difference is there between StK or Port?

The +10 works, a game at your home ground against an interstate team

The negligible +1 works, for a game against a team a team from the same city who also calls the stadium home. That is your Derby, and Melbourne blockbusters ala Pies v Carlton at the G.

But you then have more shades of grey in the middle.

If you play a ‘home’ game at an alternate ground it just doesn’t make any sense to award the same advantage as at your actual home ground...unless people think ground familiarity is not part of the home ground advantage.

If that ‘home’ game is outside of your state, again it doesn’t make sense to award the same advantage...unless people think travel is no disadvantage.

 

[bh90210fan]

Just work it through, the actual application doesn’t make sense. It says North would have same advantage in a GF as Collingwood would have against West Coast at the G.

Freo got a -10 for a game in NT against Melbourne, but Port get a -1 for game in China?? WTF?

If it is acknowledged that Haw v StK in Tassie is a limited advantage, then it should be a consistent limited advantage across the board...as what difference is there between StK or Port?

The +10 works, a game at your home ground against an interstate team

The negligible +1 works, for a game against a team a team from the same city who also calls the stadium home. That is your Derby, and Melbourne blockbusters ala Pies v Carlton at the G.

But you then have more shades of grey in the middle.

If you play a ‘home’ game at an alternate ground it just doesn’t make any sense to award the same advantage as at your actual home ground...unless people think ground familiarity is not part of the home ground advantage.

If that ‘home’ game is outside of your state, again it doesn’t make sense to award the same advantage...unless people think travel is no disadvantage.

Show me one single fixture where a non Victorian side was the most advantaged in any year.

calculate the value of home ground advantage any way you like

if we have an advantage in the h&a like you keep saying it should be a piece of cake

Freo didn’t even have the most hga when they were handed an extra home game in 2018

 

[doppleganger]

none of us are acknowledging that because its a roaring crock of sh*t


we won 7/10 games in 2018 played against teams flying in and 2/2 against the dockers.

what propelled us into premiership contention was the 7 games we won on the road - with just as heavy a disadvantage - we lost to north in tasmania that year. wed likely have thrashed them in melbourne.

this whole interstate teams have a leg up from hga would only work if there was an imbalance in the h and a games

if we got 12 games at home against teams flying in and 8 away- you would have a case

There is an imbalance in the H&A games...that is the point.

Melbourne based teams fly to play 5 or 6 non-vic teams on their dung heap each year, but they don’t have the same number of games in Melbourne against teams flying in.

It isn’t the non-vic teams ‘fault’ just a result of the AFL entering into stadium deals that impact the integrity of H&A season.

 

[kranky al]

There is an imbalance in the H&A games...that is the point.

Melbourne based teams fly to play 5 or 6 non-vic teams on their dung heap each year, but they don’t have the same number of games in Melbourne against teams flying in.

It isn’t the non-vic teams ‘fault’ just a result of the AFL entering into stadium deals that impact the integrity of H&A season.

just looked at collingwoods draw from 2019 back

h= hosted t = travelled
2019: h4 t5
2018: h5 t4
2017: h4 t5
2016: h4 t5

 

[doppleganger]

Show me one single fixture where a non Victorian side was the most advantaged in any year.

calculate the value of home ground advantage any way you like

if we have an advantage in the h&a like you keep saying it should be a piece of cake

Here you go, just use your 2018 list but adjust ratings more appro

Breakdown

+10 home game at your ground against a team from a different state

+8 home game at alternate venue in same city against a team from a different state

+5 a home game with ground and crowd familiarity significance, but either both teams travel or neither do have- Tassie, Cats v Melbourne based teams, Lions v Suns at GaBbA

+2 a home game in Melbourne with ground familiarity advantage against fellow Vic team ie Pies v North at the G, Saints v Cats at Etihad

+1 nominal home game against city rival who plays in that stadium, or nce off game where two teams travel to a random stadium, ie China, NZ experiment, NT games, Cairns clashes etc.

Using those ratings Freo, Port, Geelong get huge advantage. Hawks similar time Eagles...poor old MCG tenants are shafted

2018

Hawthorn = +6
Luck out with double up against Cats at the G.

+10 GAMES (x2)
R8: Sydney @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R13: Adelaide @ M.C.G. (VIC)

+8 GAMES (x1)
R10: West Coast @ Docklands (VIC)

+5 GAMES (x4)

R6: St Kilda @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)
R11: Port Adelaide @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)
R14: Gold Coast @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)
R17: Brisbane Lions @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)

+2 GAMES (X2)

R2: Geelong @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R21: Geelong @ M.C.G. (VIC)

+1 GAMES (x3)
R1: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R4: Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R20: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)

-1 GAMES (x3)
R3: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R7: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R18: Carlton @ Docklands (VIC)

-2 GAMES (x3)
R22: St Kilda @ Docklands (VIC)
R16: Western Bulldogs @ Docklands (VIC)
R5: North Melbourne @ Docklands (VIC)

-10 GAMES (x4)

R9: Brisbane Lions @ Gabba (QLD)
R15: Greater Western Sydney @ Sydney Showground (NSW)
R19: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R23: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)

WEST COAST = +7
Hawks at Etihad and an away game against a fellow traveller give them a positive edge.

+10 GAMES (x10)
R1: Sydney @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R3: Geelong @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R4: Gold Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R7: Port Adelaide @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R9: Richmond @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R11: St Kilda @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R14: Essendon @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R16: Greater Western Sydney @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R18: Western Bulldogs @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R22: Melbourne @ Optus Stadium (WA)
+1 GAMES (x1)
R20: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)
-1 GAMES (x1)
R6: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)

-5 GAMES (x1)
R19: North Melbourne @ Bellerive Oval (TAS)

-8 GAMES (x1)
R10: Hawthorn @ Docklands (VIC)

-10 GAMES (x8)
R2: Western Bulldogs @ Docklands (VIC)
R5: Carlton @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R8: Greater Western Sydney @ Sydney Showground (NSW)
R13: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R15: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R17: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R21: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R23: Brisbane Lions @ Gabba (QLD)

FREMANTLE = +34
Bonus home game, Melbourne in NT and GWS outside of Sydney is a gift of a fixture

+10 GAMES (x11)
R2: Essendon @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R3: Gold Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R5: Western Bulldogs @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R8: St Kilda @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R10: North Melbourne @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R12: Adelaide @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R15: Brisbane Lions @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R17: Port Adelaide @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R19: Hawthorn @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R21: Carlton @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R23: Collingwood @ Optus Stadium (WA)

+1 GAMES (x1)
R6: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)

-1 GAMES (x1)
R20: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R16: Melbourne @ Marrara Oval (NT)

-5 GAMES (x1)
R4: Greater Western Sydney @ UNSW Canberra Oval (ACT)

-10 GAMES (x7)
R1: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R7: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R9: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R11: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R13: Carlton @ Docklands (VIC)
R18: Essendon @ Docklands (VIC)
R22: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)

PORT ADELAIDE = +14

When you get to dictate where an away game is (China) you will end up positive on the ledger.

+10 GAMES (x10)
R1: Fremantle @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R3: Brisbane Lions @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R5: Geelong @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R12: Richmond @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R13: Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R14: Melbourne @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R16: St Kilda @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R18: Greater Western Sydney @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R21: West Coast @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R23: Essendon @ Adelaide Oval (SA)

+1 GAMES (x1)
R8: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)

-1 GAMES (x2)
R9: Gold Coast @ Adelaide Arena at Jiangwan Stadium (CHI)
R20: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)

-5 GAMES (x1)
R11: Hawthorn @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)

-10 GAMES (x8)
R2: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R4: Essendon @ Docklands (VIC)
R6: North Melbourne @ Docklands (VIC)
R7: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R15: Carlton @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R17: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R19: Western Bulldogs @ Mars Stadium (VIC)
R22: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)

COLLINGWOOD = -7
Don’t get all their home games at the G, but enjoy numerous away games the G

+10 GAMES (x4)
R2: Greater Western Sydney @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R11: Fremantle @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R17: West Coast @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R22: Port Adelaide @ M.C.G. (VIC)

+5 GAMES (x1)
R21: Brisbane Lions @ Docklands (VIC)

+2 GAMES (x2)
R8: Geelong @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R18: North Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)

+1 GAMES (x3)
R5: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R6: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R14: Carlton @ M.C.G. (VIC)

-1 GAMES (x5)
R1: Hawthorn @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R3: Carlton @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R12: Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R16: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R19: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)

-2 GAMES (x2)
R9: St Kilda @ Docklands (VIC)
R10: Western Bulldogs @ Docklands (VIC)

-10 GAMES (x5)
R4: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R7: Brisbane Lions @ Gabba (QLD)
R15: Gold Coast @ Carrara (QLD)
R20: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R23: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)

GEELONG = +14
An easy run as they play 9 games at the Cattery and 7 at the G. Who else plays 7 ‘away’ games at the one venue?? Carlton have 7 games at the G and many consider them a ‘tenant!’.

+10 GAMES (x5)
R6: Sydney @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R7: Greater Western Sydney @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R19: Brisbane Lions @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R22: Fremantle @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R23: Gold Coast @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)

+5 GAMES (x4)
R10: Carlton @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R12: North Melbourne @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R18: Melbourne @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R4: St Kilda @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)

-2 GAMES (x8)
R1: Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R2: Hawthorn @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R8: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R9: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R13: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R15: Western Bulldogs @ Docklands (VIC)
R20: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R21: Hawthorn @ M.C.G. (VIC)

-10 GAMES (x5)
R3: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R5: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R11: Gold Coast @ Carrara (QLD)
R16: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R17: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)


RICHMOND = -10

Richmond host only 3 interstate teams at the G, while having to travel interstate themselves five times. Even an away game against the Cats at the G doesn’t offset that inequity.

+10 GAMES (x3)
R4: Brisbane Lions @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R7: Fremantle @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R16: Adelaide @ M.C.G. (VIC)

+5 GAMES (x1)
R15: Sydney @ Docklands (VIC)

+2 GAMES (x4)
R13: Geelong @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R20: Geelong @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R10: St Kilda @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R23: Western Bulldogs @ M.C.G. (VIC)

+1 GAMES (x4)
R1: Carlton @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R3: Hawthorn @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R19: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R22: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)


-1 GAMES (x3)
R5: Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R6: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R11: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)

-2 GAMES (x2)
R8: North Melbourne @ Docklands (VIC)
R18: St Kilda @ Docklands (VIC)

-10 GAMES (x5)
R2: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R9: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R12: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R17: Greater Western Sydney @ Sydney Showground (NSW)
R21: Gold Coast @ Carrara (QLD)

 

[doppleganger]

just looked at collingwoods draw from 2019 back

h= hosted t = travelled
2019: h4 t5
2018: h5 t4
2017: h4 t5
2016: h4 t5

Pies travel 5 times a year

Our fixture has been exactly the same every year since GWS came in. It is all based on stadium deals.

9 home games at the G
1 ‘home’ game against Etihad tenant at Etihad
1 ‘home’ gameat Etihad against a non-vic team

5 ‘away’ games at the G
1 away game at Etihad against an Etihad tenant
5 away games outside of vic

The only thing is whether we play 3 non-vic teams at the G or 4, and every now and then we get an away game against the Cats at the G.

 

[kerrazy]

Just checking in to see if the pricktorians still have no clue.

Yep.

 

[Grin]

Provide the statistics. I can say statistically Eskimos are more likely to become astronauts but that’s worth squat without evidence

If you take Melbourne vs non Melbourne teams which would obviously include Geelong as one on the non Melbourne clubs, the statistics are even more stark.
West Coast supporters (and more whingy and entitled supporters of other non Melbourne clubs) way of arguing is to continually change arguments as each argument gets progressively destroyed, and then rinse and repeat.

So how about this? If I provide you the statistics, yet again. will you then concede that your club is not disadvantaged and is in fact advantaged, and stop your infernal whinging that you club is entitled even more advantages than it already gets? Or will you just revert to type and move on to another failed argument? I would also expect you to strongly lobby your fellow West Australians to also stop their spoilt child, whingy behaviour.
I will not provide them without this firm undertaking from you. Should you refuse to agree and insist that nothing will ever stop you boring the socks off others with your whinging, as it iso part of your West Australian culture, you'll find the statistics easy enough yourself. Although it does take a small amount of work, so it's probably something you'll demand others do for you (part of your culture of entitlement I suppose)

 

[Grin]

Just checking in to see if the pricktorians still have no clue.

Yep.

Prictorians. Ha ha. You West Australians are so too funny and clever, and not pathetic at all

 

[Grin]

Here you go, just use your 2018 list but adjust ratings more appro

Breakdown

+10 home game at your ground against a team from a different state

+8 home game at alternate venue in same city against a team from a different state

+5 a home game with ground and crowd familiarity significance, but either both teams travel or neither do have- Tassie, Cats v Melbourne based teams, Lions v Suns at GaBbA

+2 a home game in Melbourne with ground familiarity advantage against fellow Vic team ie Pies v North at the G, Saints v Cats at Etihad

+1 nominal home game against city rival who plays in that stadium, or nce off game where two teams travel to a random stadium, ie China, NZ experiment, NT games, Cairns clashes etc.

Using those ratings Freo, Port, Geelong get huge advantage. Hawks similar time Eagles...poor old MCG tenants are shafted

2018

Hawthorn = +6
Luck out with double up against Cats at the G.

+10 GAMES (x2)
R8: Sydney @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R13: Adelaide @ M.C.G. (VIC)

+8 GAMES (x1)
R10: West Coast @ Docklands (VIC)

+5 GAMES (x4)

R6: St Kilda @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)
R11: Port Adelaide @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)
R14: Gold Coast @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)
R17: Brisbane Lions @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)

+2 GAMES (X2)

R2: Geelong @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R21: Geelong @ M.C.G. (VIC)

+1 GAMES (x3)
R1: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R4: Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R20: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)

-1 GAMES (x3)
R3: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R7: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R18: Carlton @ Docklands (VIC)

-2 GAMES (x3)
R22: St Kilda @ Docklands (VIC)
R16: Western Bulldogs @ Docklands (VIC)
R5: North Melbourne @ Docklands (VIC)

-10 GAMES (x4)

R9: Brisbane Lions @ Gabba (QLD)
R15: Greater Western Sydney @ Sydney Showground (NSW)
R19: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R23: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)

WEST COAST = +7
Hawks at Etihad and an away game against a fellow traveller give them a positive edge.

+10 GAMES (x10)
R1: Sydney @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R3: Geelong @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R4: Gold Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R7: Port Adelaide @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R9: Richmond @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R11: St Kilda @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R14: Essendon @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R16: Greater Western Sydney @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R18: Western Bulldogs @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R22: Melbourne @ Optus Stadium (WA)
+1 GAMES (x1)
R20: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)
-1 GAMES (x1)
R6: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)

-5 GAMES (x1)
R19: North Melbourne @ Bellerive Oval (TAS)

-8 GAMES (x1)
R10: Hawthorn @ Docklands (VIC)

-10 GAMES (x8)
R2: Western Bulldogs @ Docklands (VIC)
R5: Carlton @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R8: Greater Western Sydney @ Sydney Showground (NSW)
R13: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R15: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R17: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R21: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R23: Brisbane Lions @ Gabba (QLD)

FREMANTLE = +34
Bonus home game, Melbourne in NT and GWS outside of Sydney is a gift of a fixture

+10 GAMES (x11)
R2: Essendon @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R3: Gold Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R5: Western Bulldogs @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R8: St Kilda @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R10: North Melbourne @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R12: Adelaide @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R15: Brisbane Lions @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R17: Port Adelaide @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R19: Hawthorn @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R21: Carlton @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R23: Collingwood @ Optus Stadium (WA)

+1 GAMES (x1)
R6: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)

-1 GAMES (x1)
R20: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R16: Melbourne @ Marrara Oval (NT)

-5 GAMES (x1)
R4: Greater Western Sydney @ UNSW Canberra Oval (ACT)

-10 GAMES (x7)
R1: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R7: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R9: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R11: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R13: Carlton @ Docklands (VIC)
R18: Essendon @ Docklands (VIC)
R22: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)

PORT ADELAIDE = +14

When you get to dictate where an away game is (China) you will end up positive on the ledger.

+10 GAMES (x10)
R1: Fremantle @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R3: Brisbane Lions @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R5: Geelong @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R12: Richmond @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R13: Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R14: Melbourne @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R16: St Kilda @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R18: Greater Western Sydney @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R21: West Coast @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R23: Essendon @ Adelaide Oval (SA)

+1 GAMES (x1)
R8: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)

-1 GAMES (x2)
R9: Gold Coast @ Adelaide Arena at Jiangwan Stadium (CHI)
R20: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)

-5 GAMES (x1)
R11: Hawthorn @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)

-10 GAMES (x8)
R2: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R4: Essendon @ Docklands (VIC)
R6: North Melbourne @ Docklands (VIC)
R7: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R15: Carlton @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R17: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R19: Western Bulldogs @ Mars Stadium (VIC)
R22: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)

COLLINGWOOD = -7
Don’t get all their home games at the G, but enjoy numerous away games the G

+10 GAMES (x4)
R2: Greater Western Sydney @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R11: Fremantle @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R17: West Coast @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R22: Port Adelaide @ M.C.G. (VIC)

+5 GAMES (x1)
R21: Brisbane Lions @ Docklands (VIC)

+2 GAMES (x2)
R8: Geelong @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R18: North Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)

+1 GAMES (x3)
R5: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R6: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R14: Carlton @ M.C.G. (VIC)

-1 GAMES (x5)
R1: Hawthorn @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R3: Carlton @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R12: Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R16: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R19: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)

-2 GAMES (x2)
R9: St Kilda @ Docklands (VIC)
R10: Western Bulldogs @ Docklands (VIC)

-10 GAMES (x5)
R4: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R7: Brisbane Lions @ Gabba (QLD)
R15: Gold Coast @ Carrara (QLD)
R20: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R23: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)

GEELONG = +14
An easy run as they play 9 games at the Cattery and 7 at the G. Who else plays 7 ‘away’ games at the one venue?? Carlton have 7 games at the G and many consider them a ‘tenant!’.

+10 GAMES (x5)
R6: Sydney @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R7: Greater Western Sydney @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R19: Brisbane Lions @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R22: Fremantle @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R23: Gold Coast @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)

+5 GAMES (x4)
R10: Carlton @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R12: North Melbourne @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R18: Melbourne @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R4: St Kilda @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)

-2 GAMES (x8)
R1: Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R2: Hawthorn @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R8: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R9: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R13: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R15: Western Bulldogs @ Docklands (VIC)
R20: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R21: Hawthorn @ M.C.G. (VIC)

-10 GAMES (x5)
R3: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R5: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R11: Gold Coast @ Carrara (QLD)
R16: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R17: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)


RICHMOND = -10

Richmond host only 3 interstate teams at the G, while having to travel interstate themselves five times. Even an away game against the Cats at the G doesn’t offset that inequity.

+10 GAMES (x3)
R4: Brisbane Lions @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R7: Fremantle @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R16: Adelaide @ M.C.G. (VIC)

+5 GAMES (x1)
R15: Sydney @ Docklands (VIC)

+2 GAMES (x4)
R13: Geelong @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R20: Geelong @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R10: St Kilda @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R23: Western Bulldogs @ M.C.G. (VIC)

+1 GAMES (x4)
R1: Carlton @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R3: Hawthorn @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R19: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R22: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)


-1 GAMES (x3)
R5: Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R6: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R11: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)

-2 GAMES (x2)
R8: North Melbourne @ Docklands (VIC)
R18: St Kilda @ Docklands (VIC)

-10 GAMES (x5)
R2: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R9: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R12: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R17: Greater Western Sydney @ Sydney Showground (NSW)
R21: Gold Coast @ Carrara (QLD)

Unfortunately all the stats and facts in the world are no match for strong but factually unsupported feelings of injustice from entitled whingers.

 

[Bungeye]

I believe that random piece of MCG turf(lets call it Doug) will tip the scales back towards the Victorian teams.

You gotta have sympathy for the Gabba (disguised as the MCG) it must be terribly confused if it's Abba or Gabba!

 

[LoungeLizard]

All non-Vic teams are shafted by the AFL, especially West Coast, Vics have all the advantages and they are massive.

Seriously, if i supported a non-Vic team i would pull the pin and put my money into state leagues, people must have rocks in their heads to abandon their clubs for this Victorian league.

 

[Final Siren]

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.5680743

They examined results for 6,481 professional soccer games in 17 countries before and after COVID-19 restrictions were put in place, and made a surprising finding.

The home-field advantage was still there — to a slightly smaller degree — even without boisterous crowds of fans to cheer them on and heckle their opponents, said economics professor James Reade.

found the share of matches ending in a home win fell from 43.8 per cent before the shutdown to 41.2 per cent after.

Thanks, that's a good one.

I think your post-shutdown number above includes matches played with some crowd, e.g. in Australia outside of Victoria. The crowd vs no-crowd numbers are in Table 2, and the win rate difference there is bigger: three percentage points, which is about the same as what I've seen elsewhere.

They do however go on to try to control for a few other variables, especially "team and referee heterogeneity" (not totally sure what that means), at which point they couldn't find a statistically significant difference due to crowds any more.

More strong links between crowd and umpiring bias, as seen elsewhere.

 

[bh90210fan]

Here you go, just use your 2018 list but adjust ratings more appro

Breakdown

+10 home game at your ground against a team from a different state

+8 home game at alternate venue in same city against a team from a different state

+5 a home game with ground and crowd familiarity significance, but either both teams travel or neither do have- Tassie, Cats v Melbourne based teams, Lions v Suns at GaBbA

+2 a home game in Melbourne with ground familiarity advantage against fellow Vic team ie Pies v North at the G, Saints v Cats at Etihad

+1 nominal home game against city rival who plays in that stadium, or nce off game where two teams travel to a random stadium, ie China, NZ experiment, NT games, Cairns clashes etc.

Using those ratings Freo, Port, Geelong get huge advantage. Hawks similar time Eagles...poor old MCG tenants are shafted

2018

Hawthorn = +6
Luck out with double up against Cats at the G.

+10 GAMES (x2)
R8: Sydney @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R13: Adelaide @ M.C.G. (VIC)

+8 GAMES (x1)
R10: West Coast @ Docklands (VIC)

+5 GAMES (x4)

R6: St Kilda @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)
R11: Port Adelaide @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)
R14: Gold Coast @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)
R17: Brisbane Lions @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)

+2 GAMES (X2)

R2: Geelong @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R21: Geelong @ M.C.G. (VIC)

+1 GAMES (x3)
R1: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R4: Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R20: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)

-1 GAMES (x3)
R3: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R7: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R18: Carlton @ Docklands (VIC)

-2 GAMES (x3)
R22: St Kilda @ Docklands (VIC)
R16: Western Bulldogs @ Docklands (VIC)
R5: North Melbourne @ Docklands (VIC)

-10 GAMES (x4)

R9: Brisbane Lions @ Gabba (QLD)
R15: Greater Western Sydney @ Sydney Showground (NSW)
R19: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R23: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)

WEST COAST = +7
Hawks at Etihad and an away game against a fellow traveller give them a positive edge.

+10 GAMES (x10)
R1: Sydney @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R3: Geelong @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R4: Gold Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R7: Port Adelaide @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R9: Richmond @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R11: St Kilda @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R14: Essendon @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R16: Greater Western Sydney @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R18: Western Bulldogs @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R22: Melbourne @ Optus Stadium (WA)
+1 GAMES (x1)
R20: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)
-1 GAMES (x1)
R6: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)

-5 GAMES (x1)
R19: North Melbourne @ Bellerive Oval (TAS)

-8 GAMES (x1)
R10: Hawthorn @ Docklands (VIC)

-10 GAMES (x8)
R2: Western Bulldogs @ Docklands (VIC)
R5: Carlton @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R8: Greater Western Sydney @ Sydney Showground (NSW)
R13: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R15: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R17: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R21: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R23: Brisbane Lions @ Gabba (QLD)

FREMANTLE = +34
Bonus home game, Melbourne in NT and GWS outside of Sydney is a gift of a fixture

+10 GAMES (x11)
R2: Essendon @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R3: Gold Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R5: Western Bulldogs @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R8: St Kilda @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R10: North Melbourne @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R12: Adelaide @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R15: Brisbane Lions @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R17: Port Adelaide @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R19: Hawthorn @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R21: Carlton @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R23: Collingwood @ Optus Stadium (WA)

+1 GAMES (x1)
R6: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)

-1 GAMES (x1)
R20: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R16: Melbourne @ Marrara Oval (NT)

-5 GAMES (x1)
R4: Greater Western Sydney @ UNSW Canberra Oval (ACT)

-10 GAMES (x7)
R1: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R7: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R9: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R11: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R13: Carlton @ Docklands (VIC)
R18: Essendon @ Docklands (VIC)
R22: Geelong @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)

PORT ADELAIDE = +14

When you get to dictate where an away game is (China) you will end up positive on the ledger.

+10 GAMES (x10)
R1: Fremantle @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R3: Brisbane Lions @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R5: Geelong @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R12: Richmond @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R13: Western Bulldogs @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R14: Melbourne @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R16: St Kilda @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R18: Greater Western Sydney @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R21: West Coast @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R23: Essendon @ Adelaide Oval (SA)

+1 GAMES (x1)
R8: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)

-1 GAMES (x2)
R9: Gold Coast @ Adelaide Arena at Jiangwan Stadium (CHI)
R20: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)

-5 GAMES (x1)
R11: Hawthorn @ University of Tasmania Stadium (TAS)

-10 GAMES (x8)
R2: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R4: Essendon @ Docklands (VIC)
R6: North Melbourne @ Docklands (VIC)
R7: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R15: Carlton @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R17: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R19: Western Bulldogs @ Mars Stadium (VIC)
R22: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)

COLLINGWOOD = -7
Don’t get all their home games at the G, but enjoy numerous away games the G

+10 GAMES (x4)
R2: Greater Western Sydney @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R11: Fremantle @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R17: West Coast @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R22: Port Adelaide @ M.C.G. (VIC)

+5 GAMES (x1)
R21: Brisbane Lions @ Docklands (VIC)

+2 GAMES (x2)
R8: Geelong @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R18: North Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)

+1 GAMES (x3)
R5: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R6: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R14: Carlton @ M.C.G. (VIC)

-1 GAMES (x5)
R1: Hawthorn @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R3: Carlton @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R12: Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R16: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R19: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)

-2 GAMES (x2)
R9: St Kilda @ Docklands (VIC)
R10: Western Bulldogs @ Docklands (VIC)

-10 GAMES (x5)
R4: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R7: Brisbane Lions @ Gabba (QLD)
R15: Gold Coast @ Carrara (QLD)
R20: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R23: Fremantle @ Optus Stadium (WA)

GEELONG = +14
An easy run as they play 9 games at the Cattery and 7 at the G. Who else plays 7 ‘away’ games at the one venue?? Carlton have 7 games at the G and many consider them a ‘tenant!’.

+10 GAMES (x5)
R6: Sydney @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R7: Greater Western Sydney @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R19: Brisbane Lions @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R22: Fremantle @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R23: Gold Coast @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)

+5 GAMES (x4)
R10: Carlton @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R12: North Melbourne @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R18: Melbourne @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)
R4: St Kilda @ GMHBA Stadium (Gee)

-2 GAMES (x8)
R1: Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R2: Hawthorn @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R8: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R9: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R13: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R15: Western Bulldogs @ Docklands (VIC)
R20: Richmond @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R21: Hawthorn @ M.C.G. (VIC)

-10 GAMES (x5)
R3: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R5: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R11: Gold Coast @ Carrara (QLD)
R16: Sydney @ S.C.G. (NSW)
R17: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)


RICHMOND = -10

Richmond host only 3 interstate teams at the G, while having to travel interstate themselves five times. Even an away game against the Cats at the G doesn’t offset that inequity.

+10 GAMES (x3)
R4: Brisbane Lions @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R7: Fremantle @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R16: Adelaide @ M.C.G. (VIC)

+5 GAMES (x1)
R15: Sydney @ Docklands (VIC)

+2 GAMES (x4)
R13: Geelong @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R20: Geelong @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R10: St Kilda @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R23: Western Bulldogs @ M.C.G. (VIC)

+1 GAMES (x4)
R1: Carlton @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R3: Hawthorn @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R19: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R22: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)


-1 GAMES (x3)
R5: Melbourne @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R6: Collingwood @ M.C.G. (VIC)
R11: Essendon @ M.C.G. (VIC)

-2 GAMES (x2)
R8: North Melbourne @ Docklands (VIC)
R18: St Kilda @ Docklands (VIC)

-10 GAMES (x5)
R2: Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R9: West Coast @ Optus Stadium (WA)
R12: Port Adelaide @ Adelaide Oval (SA)
R17: Greater Western Sydney @ Sydney Showground (NSW)
R21: Gold Coast @ Carrara (QLD)

I’m impressed. You’ve managed to apply minimum disadvantage to any team traveling to Tasmania (-5),or the NT(-1) while at the same time contributing minimum advantage to yourself playing Geelong or Marvel tenants at home (+2)

You even count Collingwood playing games at the MCG as a disadvantage! (-1) And value that almost on par with Geelong playing home games against you on your home ground! Or Freo playing in the NT!

Collingwood hasn’t been disadvantaged in any game played at the MCG in over 20 years

Even with all of your creative accounting, West Coast only ended up 1 point ahead of Hawthorn after you’ve cooked the books as hard as you can

bloody good effort to get the hawks over the line, especially considering they only

I) travelled interstate for an away game 4 times

ii) hosted travelling teams 6 times

iii) hosted Geelong on the mcg twice

Impressive work