Geelongs salary cap - Does it need questioning?

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

Might get banned for this but whatever

For 20 years now, Geelong have had a unmatched ability to recruit and keep players. They are quite simply untouchable in this respect. Gary Ablett and his 2 mill aside, no one has ever been squeezed out of this club for salary cap reasons despite simply having the best list over this time period. All the while this has happened they have been able to still poach players at the same time, time and time again. Im pretty confident that if I market valued the current Geelong list, they should be about 30% over the cap

The question is. Do they have the greatest list management team in the country? or do we need to dig a bit more deeper below the surface?

 

[LSRU]

Nah it’s all good. They all accept unders for the love of the club.

 

[thecatattack]

Im pretty confident that if I market valued the current Geelong list, they should be about 30% over the cap

I'd love to see your expert breakdown on this.

I'm pretty sure we front-load contracts to give us the ability to sign players each season. Plus Jenkins and Stevens are both still being paid by their previous clubs.

 

[Sirlemsip]

Might get banned for this but whatever

For 20 years now, Geelong have had a unmatched ability to recruit and keep players. They are quite simply untouchable in this respect. Gary Ablett and his 2 mill aside, no one has ever been squeezed out of this club for salary cap reasons despite simply having the best list over this time period. All the while this has happened they have been able to still poach players at the same time, time and time again. Im pretty confident that if I market valued the current Geelong list, they should be about 30% over the cap

The question is. Do they have the greatest list management team in the country? or do we need to dig a bit more deeper below the surface?

I'm Surprised that I'm jumping in to defend Geelong of all clubs, but the same false accusations have been made at Hawthorn over the 3-peat years and really unless you have confirmation of what each player is earning it is just an empty claim.

Just like with the Hawks over our successful years, it is relatively well known that some of the top players (Hodge, Mitchell, Roughead = Danger, Selwood, Hawkins) have signed on for less than they may be able to get on the 'open market' due to a combination of love for the club and a desire for success.

Please do let us know what you 'value' each of their current players so you can support your '130%' claim.

 

[The 747]

I would like to see the OP's attempt at market valuing our list

 

[thecatattack]

I would like to see the OP's attempt at market valuing our list

Dude probably thinks Ablett, Danger and Hawkins are all on a mil

 

[owen87]

Do they have the greatest list management team in the country?

Quite possibly.

 

[Forward Press]

I liked this post from Forty3 on the matter in the Clayton Oliver thread on the Drafts, Trading and Free Agency board.

There is a very simple answer to why clubs always seem to be able to fit in players when everyone thinks they would be way over the cap. The media reporting of salaries is almost always inflated and categorically wrong. It's also always reported very one dimensionally. They will get a figure that is usually 10% more than the player will earn at the peak of his contract and then times that by the length of his contract and call it.
There are much more complex answers as well. People often view contracts as fixed amounts. Player A gets 600 a year for the next 5 years, Player B 450 for 4 and so on.
This is a long way off the mark.
Very, very few players in the AFL are currently on fixed amounts, I'd suggest less than 10%.
Most players these days are on a base then have many factors written in that make up the total payment.
Contracts are also almost always weighted. A guy that signs as a 26 yr old usually has peak earning when the are 28-29, so whilst their contract peaks at 700 a year, it usually tapers by the time they reach 30.
This is one of the reasons why, even though they will have a large contract from Rance coming off the books, Richmond have very little cap space for next year.

Its also important to note that first and second year players have locked base contracts, with small incentives based on games played and draft position.
Carlton have 8 (~20%) of their list currently locked in to base contracts. They also have a full compliment of rookies.
Whilst it might surprise people to learn that players like Simpson, Kreuzer, Murphy and Mitch McGovern were/are paid so much, one of the reasons is Carlton simple didn't have anyone else to pay, and needed to make the 95% mark of the total salary.

None of this has anything to do with Clayton Oliver though, so I'm sorry to go off topic. Just thought I'd try to help clear up some common misconceptions.

For what its worth regarding Clayton, I think he's a dead set star.

tl;dr - stop falling for media making up numbers - none of us are in the know.

Do you think the AFL really would overlook clubs flouting the cap?

 

[juss]

Might get banned for this but whatever

For 20 years now, Geelong have had a unmatched ability to recruit and keep players. They are quite simply untouchable in this respect. Gary Ablett and his 2 mill aside, no one has ever been squeezed out of this club for salary cap reasons despite simply having the best list over this time period. All the while this has happened they have been able to still poach players at the same time, time and time again. Im pretty confident that if I market valued the current Geelong list, they should be about 30% over the cap

The question is. Do they have the greatest list management team in the country? or do we need to dig a bit more deeper below the surface?

Keen to see your market valuation.

They have a good list, maybe a very good list, maybe even a great list. They don't have an all time list that makes you question how they arent 30% over the cap though. How much are you paying their players!?!?

We aren't talking 2007 Gary Ablett here.

 

[GROTTO]

The AFL waiting for Geelong to get De Goey, Cameron, Treolar, Crouch and Brown.

Maybe then some questions may be raised.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

I'd love to see your expert breakdown on this.

I'm pretty sure we front-load contracts to give us the ability to sign players each season. Plus Jenkins and Stevens are both still being paid by their previous clubs.

20 years of frontloading contracts has to catch up eventually you would suspect....

 

[thecatattack]

20 years of frontloading contracts has to catch up eventually you would suspect....

So can we get your list value breakdown?

 

[Xtreme]

It's all above board!

 

[juss]

I liked this post from Forty3 on the matter in the Clayton Oliver thread on the Drafts, Trading and Free Agency board.



tl;dr - stop falling for media making up numbers - none of us are in the know.

Do you think the AFL really would overlook clubs flouting the cap?

That post is an excellent summation. Its all in the front loading, backloading, discounts, incentives, over loading, underloading, etc.

Give me 3 hours with an excel spreadsheet and a calculator and I could put together a list management strategy and budget if I knew all the rules and caps I had to play with and their salary expectations.

 

[Plugger35]

It's a valid question, I do wonder myself how Geelong are able to fit in so many big name recruits under their salary cap when other clubs are unable to.

Having a successful culture and playing finals regularly probably helps as well as having guys like Ablett and Dangerfield that are locals and want to return home but even so it is puzzling how they can have so many big name players already in their team but still go after the likes of Higgins and Jeremy Cameron.

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

So can we get your list value breakdown?

Ill do it shortly but do want 1 quick question

Patrick Dangerfields salary?

He would/should be on 950k

 

[Forward Press]

Ill do it shortly but do want 1 quick question

Patrick Dangerfields salary?

He would/should be on 950k

But how do you know that?

 

[STPer18]

Might get banned for this but whatever

For 20 years now, Geelong have had a unmatched ability to recruit and keep players. They are quite simply untouchable in this respect. Gary Ablett and his 2 mill aside, no one has ever been squeezed out of this club for salary cap reasons despite simply having the best list over this time period. All the while this has happened they have been able to still poach players at the same time, time and time again. Im pretty confident that if I market valued the current Geelong list, they should be about 30% over the cap

The question is. Do they have the greatest list management team in the country? or do we need to dig a bit more deeper below the surface?

Didn't your mob just take Kelly off our hands on a 6 year $5M contract? Trade period literally hasn't even started yet so what have we done that makes you think we're breaching the salary cap?

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

But how do you know that?

I dont. Im saying that anything less is wellll below market value. 950k is me asuming he took below his worth to sign in Geelong also mind you

 

[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

Didn't your mob just take Kelly off our hands on a 6 year $5M contract? Trade period literally hasn't even started yet so what have we done that makes you think we're breaching the salary cap?

Im not talking about this 1 year. Im saying 20 years overall fyi.

My suspicion is this

Cameron - 900k
Higgins - 500k
Smith - 400k

Does not equal 900k Kelly left im afraid

 

[catstorm]

Ill do it shortly but do want 1 quick question

Patrick Dangerfields salary?

He would/should be on 950k

Speculation is its closer to 800k.

But honestly I don't know where this is coming from, Geelong isn't a team stacked with huge talent on massive contracts.

We have Danger, Selwood, and Hawkins as the only three players i feel would be on large money.

The rest i feel would be mid range to low contracts.

Duncan
Blitz
Guthrie
Dahlhaus
Ablett (wouldn't be on anywhere near as much as you think)
Rohan
Stewart
Tuohy

but i mean look at West Coast

Kennedy
Darling
Natanui
Gaff
Cripps
Hurn
Kelly
McGovern
Shuey
Yeo

That's quite a list you have there, certainly more top heavy than geelongs, how do you guys manage to keep under the cap.

 

[STPer18]

Im not talking about this 1 year. Im saying 20 years overall fyi.

My suspicion is this

Cameron - 900k
Higgins - 500k
Smith - 400k

Does not equal 900k Kelly left im afraid

None of them have said they're coming to Geelong, and fyi just about every single player up for trade this year has been linked in one form or another to Geelong. Don't get sucked into the media speculation - at least wait until after trade period and see if we land anyone at all.

 

[thecatattack]

I dont. Im saying that anything less is wellll below market value. 950k is me asuming he took below his worth to sign in Geelong also mind you

And he wouldn't be on 950k. He'd be on less.

 

[kane249]

The players they are targeting are mostly 30+ and near the end of their playing days.

At their peaks the likes of Steven, Higgins etc might have got big coin but now adays their value would be much lower.

 

[Desslok]

Gary Ablett and his 2 mill aside, no one has ever been squeezed out of this club for salary cap reasons despite simply having the best list over this time period.

I'm pretty sure Shane Mumford was squeezed out...