AFL 2020 Brownlow Medal

[Gazza Guru]

You've inspired me to pig out on the 10+ votes one more time. Gone a bit safer than your multi, still @66.45 boosted

Neale 20+
Boak/Tracc/Steele/Dusty 15+
Crae/Danger/Merrett/Bont/Fyfe/Gola/Parker/Adams/Wines/Pendles/Guthrie/Cripps/Gawn/Oliver 10+

You have seen my count and where I have Petracca. Sure he can poll 15+ but I caution anyone relying on him in any multis like your one or with him top 5, even top 10. There are much safer guys to add than him.

 

[Gazza Guru]

Pendles winning Collingwood will be huge for me. Glad to see Gazza also has this. I just reckon he gets up. I was betting on him to win outright at one stage albeit I cashed out. And round 15 is the Smokey for 3. Adams polling big in the last round in a loss is the only way I see him beating Pendles.

Pendles to win Collingwood by 2 or more $5.50 (I.e pendles to win by more than 1 vote) I’ll have a small play on that

I also started backing Pendles to win the overall medal after a small amount of the season had been played. Like you I cashed out but feel that he should win Coll.
Like some other clubs, it’s the price that puts me off a little. Ditto Cripps. I am surprised that neither of them are clear favourite to win their clubs.

 

[Sportsbet]

You have seen my count and where I have Petracca. Sure he can poll 15+ but I caution anyone relying on him in any multis like your one or with him top 5, even top 10. There are much safer guys to add than him.

I agree, I've filled my boots with similar multis without petracca 15+ or even dusty 15+. Just adding a few 15+ guys to the mix now - rotating through tracc, macrae, dusty, danger, merrett.

 

[Sportsbet]

I also started backing Pendles to win the overall medal after a small amount of the season had been played. Like you I cashed out but feel that he should win Coll.
Like some other clubs, it’s the price that puts me off a little. Ditto Cripps. I am surprised that neither of them are clear favourite to win their clubs.

Cripps and Pendles are probably just the bait to check out the team votes multi, people will probably add a few more to that multi and lose it all.

 

[Gazza Guru]

Cripps and Pendles are probably just the bait to check out the team votes multi, people will probably add a few more to that multi and lose it all.

I doubt that they would use either of those 2 guys who poll well as bait.
Who knows though.
Most smart people don’t use the same players in all multis and get some cover in case of errors.

 

[NYRB]

Round 17 preview: Bulldogs v Hawthorn

3 Bontempelli
2 Caleb Daniel
1 Liberatore

neck and neck between Daniel and Libba to get the 2 votes, but that late spectacular goal from Caleb Daniel is good enough to snag the 2 here. Bontempelli miles ahead of anyone , and is BOG here. AFL website has him on 7 centre clearances, but I counted 3 of them which stood out like a beacon. Macrae no chance to poll here in my opinion, his game more heavily influenced with more uncontested disposals. Macrae didn't have anything that stood out in this game, i didnt count any centre clearances directly out of the square from him and I think Bont and Libba had more eye catching games.

I have a spreadsheet of how I observed the game with my ratings :




My odds to get the 3 votes here? (assuming no bookie margin)

Bontempelli $1.98
Caleb Daniel $3.50
Liberatore $6.60
MacRae $28
Tim English $55
Johannisen $150
Shiels $700
Other Player $1000

If you have MacRae banked for votes in this game, you may want to watch the game again. Ask yourself , did he do anything that stood out over JJ, Bont, Libba, English and Daniel? I see a few tallies with votes for him in this game.

 

[ben0000]

You have seen my count and where I have Petracca. Sure he can poll 15+ but I caution anyone relying on him in any multis like your one or with him top 5, even top 10. There are much safer guys to add than him.

why is on SB I can’t do more than 4-5 leg multis?

 

[ben0000]

You've inspired me to pig out on the 10+ votes one more time. Gone a bit safer than your multi, still @66.45 boosted

Neale 20+
Boak/Tracc/Steele/Dusty 15+
Crae/Danger/Merrett/Bont/Fyfe/Gola/Parker/Adams/Wines/Pendles/Guthrie/Cripps/Gawn/Oliver 10+

sportsbet doesn’t allow me to do more than 4-5 leg multi on these markets? Why is that

 

[Sportsbet]

sportsbet doesn’t allow me to do more than 4-5 leg multi on these markets? Why is that

you must be on the top 5/10/20 markets. If you add a top5 selection on there, you are limited to 5 legs. Can go up to 10 legs if you don't include any top5

 

[Sportsbet]

my first (of many) team vote multis - 12 legs @ 7190

Laird
Cripps
Pendles
Merrett
Fyfe
Danger
JKelly
Simpkin
Wines
Jones
TKelly
Bont

 

[ben0000]

you must be on the top 5/10/20 markets. If you add a top5 selection on there, you are limited to 5 legs. Can go up to 10 legs if you don't include any top5

Thanks mate.will do that

 

[NYRB]

In that game between WB and Hawks, i know it was in the 4th quarter but there was a late smother between Bontempelli and MacRae, which I allocated 0.50 a point each. it shouldn't have too much bearing, but its important that I note that out to you guys.

 

[ben0000]

Hi all. Looking at top 3/5/10 betting

I’m going for Petracca top3
Boak and Steele top 5
Martin top 10
I’m vary of Danger for top 10? Any other suggestions?
would love one more leg at decent odds

 

[Young Gun #6]

Gaff, Billings & J.Kelly to poll 30+ worth a dabble at $10

Could see a 10/9/11 sort of outcome possibly. Seems a bit overs.

Neale 29+ $6 I also like.

Brisbane top 5 50+ at $2 as well.

 

[Geeves Train]

Pointsbet are North $1.80 to beat Hawthorn $1.95 team votes. Like this!!

 

[Sausage Legs]

Round 17 preview: Bulldogs v Hawthorn

3 Bontempelli
2 Caleb Daniel
1 Liberatore

neck and neck between Daniel and Libba to get the 2 votes, but that late spectacular goal from Caleb Daniel is good enough to snag the 2 here. Bontempelli miles ahead of anyone , and is BOG here. AFL website has him on 7 centre clearances, but I counted 3 of them which stood out like a beacon. Macrae no chance to poll here in my opinion, his game more heavily influenced with more uncontested disposals. Macrae didn't have anything that stood out in this game, i didnt count any centre clearances directly out of the square from him and I think Bont and Libba had more eye catching games.

I have a spreadsheet of how I observed the game with my ratings :

View attachment 986788


My odds to get the 3 votes here? (assuming no bookie margin)

Bontempelli $1.98
Caleb Daniel $3.50
Liberatore $6.60
MacRae $28
Tim English $55
Johannisen $150
Shiels $700
Other Player $1000

If you have MacRae banked for votes in this game, you may want to watch the game again. Ask yourself , did he do anything that stood out over JJ, Bont, Libba, English and Daniel? I see a few tallies with votes for him in this game.

Went Daniel Bont Libba. As u said, I originally had macrae for one but changed it a couple weeks ago. Should only be out of the 3

 

[NYRB]

This WB V Hawks review:

2020 AFL Brownlow Medal Votes Round 17 | Before You Bet

There's just one more round to go in the 2020 AFL season. Round 17 has completed and the Brownlow votes are locked away. It was a quiet round for those at the top of our Brownlow leaderboard, but there were a couple of stand out performances this weekend. Let's take a closer look at each match...

www.beforeyoubet.com.au

Is just about spot on in my opinion. I didn't read this before allocating my votes. They have have the 3 and 2 switched around. But Bont, Daniel and Libba far ahead of the 4th best player here.

 

[Young Gun #6]

Neale 25+
Boak, Steele, Trac, Martin, Macrae, Danger 15+
Merrett, Bont, Fyfe, Parker, Menegola, Wines, Guthrie, Pendles, Cripps, Gawn, Oliver, Rockliff, Menegola 10+

$347.90 worth a nibble.

 

[Gazza Guru]

Hi all. Looking at top 3/5/10 betting

I’m going for Petracca top3
Boak and Steele top 5
Martin top 10
I’m vary of Danger for top 10? Any other suggestions?
would love one more leg at decent odds

I would drop Petracca and add Parker top 10 as my suggestion.
Boak and Steele top 5 much safer than Petracca top 3 for mine.

 

[jack1231]

Gazza who do you have getting 2 and 3 in Geelong v gcs round 5.( If you’re happy to share) sent you a PM anyhow

 

[offthebusgus]

Throwing my count out there, since why not. The more data the better...

28 - L Neale
21 - T Boak
20 - C Petracca
18 - J Steele
17 - D Martin
16 - P Dangerfield, J Macrae, N Fyfe, M Gawn, Z Merrett
15 - S Menegola
14 - L Parker, M Bontempelli
13 - T Adams, C Guthrie, P Cripps, T Rockliff

Crows: 8 Laird, 6 M Crouch
Lions: 7 Lyons, 6 Zorko, 6 McCluggage
Blues: 13 Cripps, 9 Walsh
Pies: 13 Adams, 10 Pendlebury
Dons: 16 Merrett, 9 McGrath, 7 Shiel
Freo: 16 Fyfe, 9 Brayshaw, 8 Mundy
Cats: 16 Dangerfield, 15 Menegola, 13 Guthrie, 10 Hawkins
Suns: 9 Rowell, 6 Miller, 4 Greenwood
Giants: 10 Whitfield, 9 Kelly, 9 Greene
Hawks: 7 Mitchell, 7 Wingard
Dees: 20 Petracca, 16 Gawn, 11 Oliver
North: 8 Anderson, 7 Higgins, 6 Polec
Port: 13 Rockliff, 12 Wines, 8 Dixon
Tigers: 6 Bolton, 6 Cotchin, 5 Lambert
Saints: 10 Marshall, 9 Billings, 8 Jones
Swans: 6 Heeney, 4 Papley, 4 Lloyd, 4 Kennedy
WC: 11 Naitanui, 11 Kelly, 11 Gaff, 10 Sheed
Dogs: 16 Macrae, 14 Bontempelli, 6 Daniel, 6 English

Good luck to everyone on the punt.

 

[LionsOrDieTrion]

Throwing my count out there, since why not. The more data the better...

28 - L Neale
21 - T Boak
20 - C Petracca
18 - J Steele
17 - D Martin
16 - P Dangerfield, J Macrae, N Fyfe, M Gawn, Z Merrett
15 - S Menegola
14 - L Parker, M Bontempelli
13 - T Adams, C Guthrie, P Cripps, T Rockliff

Crows: 8 Laird, 6 M Crouch
Lions: 7 Lyons, 6 Zorko, 6 McCluggage
Blues: 13 Cripps, 9 Walsh
Pies: 13 Adams, 10 Pendlebury
Dons: 16 Merrett, 9 McGrath, 7 Shiel
Freo: 16 Fyfe, 9 Brayshaw, 8 Mundy
Cats: 16 Dangerfield, 15 Menegola, 13 Guthrie, 10 Hawkins
Suns: 9 Rowell, 6 Miller, 4 Greenwood
Giants: 10 Whitfield, 9 Kelly, 9 Greene
Hawks: 7 Mitchell, 7 Wingard
Dees: 20 Petracca, 16 Gawn, 11 Oliver
North: 8 Anderson, 7 Higgins, 6 Polec
Port: 13 Rockliff, 12 Wines, 8 Dixon
Tigers: 6 Bolton, 6 Cotchin, 5 Lambert
Saints: 10 Marshall, 9 Billings, 8 Jones
Swans: 6 Heeney, 4 Papley, 4 Lloyd, 4 Kennedy
WC: 11 Naitanui, 11 Kelly, 11 Gaff, 10 Sheed
Dogs: 16 Macrae, 14 Bontempelli, 6 Daniel, 6 English

Good luck to everyone on the punt.

 

[Leeroy Brown 15]

Throwing my count out there, since why not. The more data the better...

28 - L Neale
21 - T Boak
20 - C Petracca
18 - J Steele
17 - D Martin
16 - P Dangerfield, J Macrae, N Fyfe, M Gawn, Z Merrett
15 - S Menegola
14 - L Parker, M Bontempelli
13 - T Adams, C Guthrie, P Cripps, T Rockliff

Crows: 8 Laird, 6 M Crouch
Lions: 7 Lyons, 6 Zorko, 6 McCluggage
Blues: 13 Cripps, 9 Walsh
Pies: 13 Adams, 10 Pendlebury
Dons: 16 Merrett, 9 McGrath, 7 Shiel
Freo: 16 Fyfe, 9 Brayshaw, 8 Mundy
Cats: 16 Dangerfield, 15 Menegola, 13 Guthrie, 10 Hawkins
Suns: 9 Rowell, 6 Miller, 4 Greenwood
Giants: 10 Whitfield, 9 Kelly, 9 Greene
Hawks: 7 Mitchell, 7 Wingard
Dees: 20 Petracca, 16 Gawn, 11 Oliver
North: 8 Anderson, 7 Higgins, 6 Polec
Port: 13 Rockliff, 12 Wines, 8 Dixon
Tigers: 6 Bolton, 6 Cotchin, 5 Lambert
Saints: 10 Marshall, 9 Billings, 8 Jones
Swans: 6 Heeney, 4 Papley, 4 Lloyd, 4 Kennedy
WC: 11 Naitanui, 11 Kelly, 11 Gaff, 10 Sheed
Dogs: 16 Macrae, 14 Bontempelli, 6 Daniel, 6 English

Good luck to everyone on the punt.

This count would be a very good result for all posters here

 

[Mrose45]

Dunno if they are stuffing up odds too much. I just dont think a lot win. I'd be interested how many they make up themselves and throw in at good odds to get the punters to take the bait.

I agree with this. They really aren’t as good as everyone thinks. Be lucky for 10% of them to get up imo

 

[Gazza Guru]

Gazza who do you have getting 2 and 3 in Geelong v gcs round 5.( If you’re happy to share) sent you a PM anyhow

I couldn’t spilt Hawk and Menegola and gave them 2 each :

Hawk 1.5 / 2
Menegola 1.5 / 2
Duncan .5 / 1
Rankine .5 / 1
Swallow .5 / 0

Danger and Selwood next. A very tough game and I rarely distribute like I did on this game.