General Markets Talk

Big Cox 88

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Aussie Broadband goes bang. Regret not taking up their offer early.
 

burge13

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I don’t understand this. A market cap Like this for a business that doesn’t make any money.
APT would like a word

Uber still loses money too.

Whats annoying about DOU is it is literally just reinventing what already exists with extra buzz words on the website. It does nothing new. Making money is irrelevant in a way as you buy on future earnings, people think this will be big but F'd if i know why
 

Lyyynnnchy

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Not saying it's right or wrong but apart from punting on explorers I don't invest in anything that doesn't make money.
Missing out on a fair bit of opportunity then

Most fintech companies wont make a dime of profit for their first 10 years, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Instagram, it's a long list. For me it's get in before the crowd does. I was in DOU before many at 5.7c but unfortunately for me exited with a 10% profit. Did that a couple of times over rather than stay holding

The expectation is that these companies wont make a $ for a long time so when it's reported as such, that's not what will crash the stock, market sentiment will. Get in before the crowd does and get out before the crowd starts turning on the company

I'm expecting a bit of a flop for the number of sign ups DOU achieves when they open in the US. Will crash heavily then I suspect.
 
May 2, 2007
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Missing out on a fair bit of opportunity then

Most fintech companies wont make a dime of profit for their first 10 years, Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Instagram, it's a long list. For me it's get in before the crowd does. I was in DOU before many at 5.7c but unfortunately for me exited with a 10% profit. Did that a couple of times over rather than stay holding

The expectation is that these companies wont make a $ for a long time so when it's reported as such, that's not what will crash the stock, market sentiment will. Get in before the crowd does and get out before the crowd starts turning on the company

I'm expecting a bit of a flop for the number of sign ups DOU achieves when they open in the US. Will crash heavily then I suspect.
That sort of stuff I don't have a great understanding of so getting involved with it for me would be close to plain gambling.

Plenty of ways to make good money on the market.
 

Lyyynnnchy

Norm Smith Medallist
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That sort of stuff I don't have a great understanding of so getting involved with it for me would be close to plain gambling.

Plenty of ways to make good money on the market.
Neither do I really. You have to know more about market sentiment rather than what you're investing in. DOU was purely a market sentiment play, knowing words like Fintech and Neobank, on a comparatively low market cap (albeit with f all revenue), would attract market interest, especially with young professionals having access to super $. I researched none of the actual product
 

Lyyynnnchy

Norm Smith Medallist
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It's a bit like the CRO options

There's so much pumping on social media about CRO and CROO, it wouldn't surprise me if 50% of buyers don't actually know what they're buying when they buy the options (CROO)

It doesn't make sense to me the options are trading at up to 3.4c while the heads are trading at circa 4c. With an exercise price of 2.5c, even with a 3 year expiry, the options are trading way, way above fair value
 

Lyyynnnchy

Norm Smith Medallist
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How do you gauge market sentiment, Lynchy?

Is it sort of having a look at how much discussion the stock is generating online?

That's one of them. My main points when trading purely on sentiment and for short term holds are below
  1. I look for stock trading at lifetime high volumes that have yet to see a rise in share price
  2. Directors buying on market. When I'm starting my research from scratch I'll generally scroll through ASX announcements looking for substantial change in director ownership notices and start from there. Picked up SHE at 6c recently this way. So not only public market sentiment but internal management sentiment
  3. If an explorer, must have tenements near big discoveries like SBR (next to DEG). Easy to pump and plenty of FOMO
  4. Decent following on Hot Copper. Too many times I've had a share that's come out with a really good announcement but through lack of a following, it's had too few profit from the increase and thus too few pumping on social media to further their profit
  5. A good buyers to sellers ratio. Generally once it starts getting to 6-10x you'll see a rocket if it hasn't already. NZS, ICI & DOU 3 very recent ones where it was essentially plateauing all the way up to then rocketing as soon as it hit 6-10x buyers to sellers. I generally look to sell down or get out completely when it drops to 3x or less on shares I have no interest in holding long term (ie I still hold CRO)
  6. A good 30 day investor activity ratio, looking for more buyers than sellers as per below. 40/60 or better is usually a good sign. Top line is CRO which I may hold long term, bottom line is BRN which I'll likely trade out of on Monday.
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Lyyynnnchy

Norm Smith Medallist
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Obviously the distillation of over a decade of of hard learned lessons.

I am quite big on management acquisitions but I am surprised at a small cap can hit all time trading volumes without moving the price, but micro caps and technical analysis are not my field.

You're right, I shouldn't have said not seen an increase but rather no increase or just started its run. It may mean you just don't get the bottom but you should still have got in at an early enough time if its ticking all the other boxes. SBR is the perfect example. I was looking at it for a while due to it's proximity to DEG as well as having a pretty sizeable and engaged following on Hot Copper. Huge amount of shares on issue was a concern and there wasn't huge volume which means it was trading between 0.3 and 0.4c for a long time and why I didn't get in super early. It ticked most of my boxes but the volume was a concern. I saw a spike in volume and I jumped in at 0.6c

Missed the bottom of 0.3-0.4c from when I started looking but I still made a 250% profit in a week and I saw little to no risk in getting stuck in a Micro Cap with no volume going through to give me an exit

I wont risk sitting in a Micro Cap with no way of getting out just to get the absolute bottom. Too many people miss out on getting in because they miss the absolute bottom, ie 0.4c and see a 50% increase in a day and get scared of jumping in only to see it continue to bag.


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May 2, 2007
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Those sub level caves are very expensive and slow to get going. RSG had the same issues with large CAPEX and slow production increases.

I think this quarter is the one where the ship starts to turn around. If they get things right there is a lot of catching up to do with it's peers.
Pretty happy with their WGXs recent report.
 
May 2, 2007
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Do they have serious turn around potential?
They seem cheap if they can deliver, getting the job done last quarterly is a good sign. I added more back at $2.02 recently but only about half of the order went through which was a bit unlucky.

Was speaking to bro this arvo and I think he said something about them getting big enough to likely be added by GDX soon? Would give the sp a bit of a kick.

I was thinking about buying one of the big miners if gold pulls back a bit again he reckons just go NST or SAR, steer clear of EVN
 
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mookieb

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Pretty happy with their WGXs recent report.
Production was low which seems inevitable with WGX but it was a massive positive on costs. I think there might have been some wholesale changes with their internal contracting.

I think they continue to re-rate as long as production goes to plan and Big Bell hits full production. They've got plenty of cash so we shouldn't be too far away from dividends if things go well and gold continues to increase.

A few experts talking gold to $1,825 odd before a sizable move upwards.
 
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