AFL 2020 - AFL Grand Final (no aftertiming allowed)

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ShaunWDT said:
Danger or Dusty only have to play out 4 quarters and theyll win the Medal there's no value in that market when its media awarded.
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As mentioned earlier, I cant see it going outside a group of 5 players tbh. It will definitely only go to the player of the winning team IMO. Drawing a blank here, but was Buckley the last from a losing team?

Ablett, Danger,Dusty, Lynch, Hawkins.

They wont even have to do much for the first 3 to win it if their team wins. Bruce, Wayne, BT will be salivating over these 5 players and will probably sway the opinion of the rest of the panel.

Lynch and Hawkins will probably have to kick 4+ to win it.

Ablett probably only needs to be standing upright with two goals to win it if the Cats win. Danger will be his strongest candidate.

Dusty is Dusty, if the Tigers win, the panel will almost definitely give it to him, unless he is shadowed and shutdown for the entire game. Which he wont as Hardwick will move him either from midfield to forward or vice versa to break any tag.
 
GROTTO said:
As mentioned earlier, I cant see it going outside a group of 5 players tbh. It will definitely only go to the player of the winning team IMO. Drawing a blank here, but was Buckley the last from a losing team?

Ablett, Danger,Dusty, Lynch, Hawkins.

They wont even have to do much for the first 3 to win it if their team wins. Bruce, Wayne, BT will be salivating over these 5 players and will probably sway the opinion of the rest of the panel.

Lynch and Hawkins will probably have to kick 4+ to win it.

Ablett probably only needs to be standing upright with two goals to win it if the Cats win. Danger will be his strongest candidate.

Dusty is Dusty, if the Tigers win, the panel will almost definitely give it to him, unless he is shadowed and shutdown for the entire game. Which he wont as Hardwick will move him either from midfield to forward or vice versa to break any tag.
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8 of the last 11 were pretty big names at the time and played as mids, unless Hawk or Lynch boot 5 its probably decided between 5 or 6 blokes realistically.
 

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the_big_sav said:
wont the wet/humid conditions lesson hawkins or lynchs input

sounds like it could be a low scoring slog. prestia/menegola/edwards come more into play?
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Which is why a 4+ goal effort would be enough IMO.

This could be one of those shoot me in the head games, where its low scoring like 8 goals versus 6 final result.

They would need to have an exceptional game to win it over the main candidates, but true you cant rule them out entirely.
 
2.5u Ablett AGS $1.95 (Lads)
1u Ablett 2+ goals $6 (Lads)
0.5u Ablett 3+ goals $21 (SB)
0.5u Ablett Norm Smith $26 (Lads)

3u Duncan over 19.5 disposals $1.80 (lads)

Love the narrative for Ablett. Showed Saturday night that he’s got plenty in the tank to score himself a norm smith. I think if he brings a similar performance and they get across the line the judges won’t be able to help themselves.

Line a bit low for Duncan. A class act who slips under the radar. Has built right into the finals nicely.

Who else is getting the feeling that they’ll unload most of their bankroll Saturday? 😂
 
Joel Selwood @ 34's is value imo. Will leave nothing in the tank and will be desperate to send a few off on a good note.
 
Rhys Stanley AGS @2.10 at SB. Kicked a goal in 7/10 games this year.

Miers AGS@2.20 @ Neds. Kicked a goal in 10/20 games this year.
 
GROTTO said:
As mentioned earlier, I cant see it going outside a group of 5 players tbh. It will definitely only go to the player of the winning team IMO. Drawing a blank here, but was Buckley the last from a losing team?

Ablett, Danger,Dusty, Lynch, Hawkins.

They wont even have to do much for the first 3 to win it if their team wins. Bruce, Wayne, BT will be salivating over these 5 players and will probably sway the opinion of the rest of the panel.

Lynch and Hawkins will probably have to kick 4+ to win it.

Ablett probably only needs to be standing upright with two goals to win it if the Cats win. Danger will be his strongest candidate.

Dusty is Dusty, if the Tigers win, the panel will almost definitely give it to him, unless he is shadowed and shutdown for the entire game. Which he wont as Hardwick will move him either from midfield to forward or vice versa to break any tag.
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Judd also won it in a losing team
 
Not sure Ablett gets enough of the footy to land a NS, would probably have to kick 4 from a flank, fairly unlikely.
 
GROTTO said:
As mentioned earlier, I cant see it going outside a group of 5 players tbh. It will definitely only go to the player of the winning team IMO. Drawing a blank here, but was Buckley the last from a losing team?

Ablett, Danger,Dusty, Lynch, Hawkins.

They wont even have to do much for the first 3 to win it if their team wins. Bruce, Wayne, BT will be salivating over these 5 players and will probably sway the opinion of the rest of the panel.

Lynch and Hawkins will probably have to kick 4+ to win it.

Ablett probably only needs to be standing upright with two goals to win it if the Cats win. Danger will be his strongest candidate.

Dusty is Dusty, if the Tigers win, the panel will almost definitely give it to him, unless he is shadowed and shutdown for the entire game. Which he wont as Hardwick will move him either from midfield to forward or vice versa to break any tag.
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Not sure in 2020 but normally the voters are watching the game there by themselves, not listening to the C7 telecast.
 
As long as Houli doesn't pick up 20 2nd half disposals so people can't claim "he deserved it" and Dusty didn't, I'm not going to be as annoyed as last year. Houli had 5 or 6 "real" (not including kick outs) first half disposals last year and people still claimed media bias got Dusty over the line when he was dominant to break the game wide open.
 

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HTPunter said:
As long as Houli doesn't pick up 20 2nd half disposals so people can't claim "he deserved it" and Dusty didn't, I'm not going to be as annoyed as last year. Houli had 5 or 6 "real" (not including kick outs) first half disposals last year and people still claimed media bias got Dusty over the line when he was dominant to break the game wide open.
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This is why I cant see a half back winning it, too many nothing possessions in the modern game.
 
R17 Tigers smashed the Cats

Bolton 3 Brownlow votes, Riewoldt 4 goals 2 votes

Norm Smith Bolton @ 17 and Riewoldt @ 26 and top 3 @ 6 and 9 SB

On Lynch @ 31 and Bachar @ 34 (stale prices board)
 
Robo87 said:
0.5u Parfitt Ags @3.75 SB worth a shot. 6 Scoring shots for 3.3 in Last 4 games.
0.5u Tuohy Ags @ 3.20 SB similar, 4/4 in each of his last 4 games.
2u ablett Ags @1.85 lads
1u ablett 2g+ @6 lads/ SB
0.5u SGM1- Parfitt Ags, Tuohy Ags, ablett Ags @27.25 sb
1u Bolton Ags @1.85 lads/tab
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Tuohy is a ripper bet at those odds.
 
Looking for value in the 15+ disposals market to multi on SB. Dangerfield at $1.20 is a monty. Stewart is low risk, Bolton value at $1.67 and I like Ablett to get a bit of midfield time after his big goal from the centre last week @ $1.83. Those 4 go into $4.50, powerplay to $5. Ablett is the risk, may sub for Baker or Short.

Btw how bad are the 'Popular' multi markets on SB?? Disposal markets with 9-10 legs for $6-7, 6 different individual goalscorers for $7 that sort of stuff, high risk no value at all..
 
Fat Nyfe said:
Looking for value in the 15+ disposals market to multi on SB. Dangerfield at $1.20 is a monty. Stewart is low risk, Bolton value at $1.67 and I like Ablett to get a bit of midfield time after his big goal from the centre last week @ $1.83. Those 4 go into $4.50, powerplay to $5. Ablett is the risk, may sub for Baker or Short.

Btw how bad are the 'Popular' multi markets on SB?? Disposal markets with 9-10 legs for $6-7, 6 different individual goalscorers for $7 that sort of stuff, high risk no value at all..
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Agree with Danger/Stewart, Ablett I think unlikely, but there is a world where he goes big. Crazy stat only one player from each team cracked 20 touches last week (Duncan/Martin)
 
frank99 said:
Agree with Danger/Stewart, Ablett I think unlikely, but there is a world where he goes big. Crazy stat only one player from each team cracked 20 touches last week (Duncan/Martin)
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I actually agree, I'm going to remove him from those multis but have a separate nibble for Ablett alone - 15+ disposals and 1+ goal @ 3.60.

Other good 15+ options are Cotchin (18, 19, 17 leading in) and Selwood (16, 18, 16). Both captains with GF experience who will certainly impose themselves, good form leading in.

In general I'll probably avoid the 20 touches market. Particularly for Richmond it's risky as they can often have games with low disposal counts.
 
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