AFL 2020 - AFL Grand Final (no aftertiming allowed)

[LIONS15v]

Prestia is the only one from Richmond I'd be including for 15+ disposals. Also: duncan, gola, Stewart, danger, selwood 15+. Comes to $3.20 on SB, probably could include a couple of AGS in it as well

Richmond conceded the 6th most disposals of any team in 2020. Geelong conceded the least disposals.

 

[iluvparis]

As long as Houli doesn't pick up 20 2nd half disposals so people can't claim "he deserved it" and Dusty didn't, I'm not going to be as annoyed as last year. Houli had 5 or 6 "real" (not including kick outs) first half disposals last year and people still claimed media bias got Dusty over the line when he was dominant to break the game wide open.

Last year was a bit of a lottery tbh. I was on Prestia - and for the short time the game was in the balance he was easily the best player on the ground. He just completely faded out of it once the game was already dead.

 

[Ohh Ok]

Come Sunday morning, I will be an official Uber Driver.

I’ll likely need an Uber driver early Sunday morning

 

[Ohh Ok]

Not sure Ablett gets enough of the footy to land a NS, would probably have to kick 4 from a flank, fairly unlikely.

I thought if he could replicate what he did Saturday night that he would go very close to winning it? Which definitely isn’t unlikely

 

[GROTTO]

Last year was a bit of a lottery tbh. I was on Prestia - and for the short time the game was in the balance he was easily the best player on the ground. He just completely faded out of it once the game was already dead.

Do we know the NS panel?

IIRC, Bruce and Carey were on it last year.

 

[GROTTO]

I thought if he could replicate what he did Saturday night that he would go very close to winning it? Which definitely isn’t unlikely

A few kicks, few marks, a few tackles, a goal would almost get him home if the Cats win.

Unless Danger or Duncan have a massive 30+ day.

 

[NYRB]

Do we know the NS panel?

IIRC, Bruce and Carey were on it last year.

Last years panel: Alistair Lynch, Chris Johnson

Chris Johnson

Age

47

Ht

180cm

Wt

88kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.7

4star

K

8.6

3star

HB

5.1

4star

M

4.0

4star

T

2.0

4star

No current season stats available

D

9.0

3star

K

7.0

3star

HB

2.0

2star

M

3.2

4star

T

1.4

4star

, Matthew Lloyd, Bruce McAvaney, Angela Pippos. All of them voted for Dusty Martin as the top player in a 3,2,1 voting format.

Houli came 2nd, Pickett came 3rd, Riewoldt 4th and Prestia 5th.

 

[Ohh Ok]

I put the tip up here yesterday for Duncan 20+ at Ladbrokes ($1.80). If you do like him at those odds I’d suggest jumping on now. They’ve moved his line to 21.5 ($1.87) but have been lazy and haven’t adjusted him for 20+ yet

 

[NYRB]

if Bruce McAvaney is part of the Norm Smith Panel, and Dustin Martin

4

Dustin Martin

Age

32

Ht

187cm

Wt

93kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

25.2

5star

K

15.9

5star

HB

9.3

5star

M

4.0

4star

T

3.0

5star

G

1.1

4star

D

20.3

5star

K

11.5

4star

HB

8.8

4star

M

2.8

3star

T

2.3

3star

G

1.3

5star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.0

4star

HB

10.8

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

2.2

4star

G

0.4

3star

kicks 3 goals, you can just about bank 3 votes from Bruce.


Can take Dusty Martin to win the Norm Smith medal at $6.00 or take Martin to kick 3+ Goals at $8.

Just throwing it up there.

 

[NYRB]

2017 Voting panel: Terry Wallace, Chris Judd, Daisy Pearce, Jake Niall, Mark McClure

The 2017 Grand Final was a bit more a tighter contest

Dusty Martin 13
Houli 10
Edwards, Prestia, Rance 2
Graham 1

Wallace only gave Martin the 1 vote in 2017

Would be very interested to know who is part of the 2020 NS Panel team. It seems like they vary the panel from year to year.

 

[NYRB]

I might lower the bar, in 2017 Martin kicked 2 goals and was Normy. Bruce on the panel + Dusty Martin to bag at least 2 goals or more, he would still come pretty close to snagging 3 votes from Bruce.

Bruce loves him. His favourite player by a mile.

 

[Fat Nyfe]

PointsBet Norm Smith Top 3 - Dangerfield $2.40 looks interesting.

 

[NYRB]

Interested to know if the Panel is 4 or 5 for this year. You would imagine with a larger voting panel, the more recognised names will come through. eg Danger, Dusty

 

[md20]

Not sure if it has been posted yet.
But Z. Tuohy AGS - $3.25 (SB)
His last 4 games 1.0, 1.1, 1.0, 1.0

Weather could be crap but I'm not shying away at that price.



On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[The_Steadier]

If you willing to cop a minor restriction on winning margin (u39 points), you can still get the desired effect and multi NS with the various tri bet 'either team' options.

Using the new SB 4-leg any sport multi promo- I've just used this method to have a dabble at a relatively low risk swing at betting on the norm smith, with (in theory) a bonus bet back if my NS bet doesn't get up.

(Note the T&C's for the 4-leg promo stipulate no SGM legs allowed- but tri-bet and NS bet don't register as SGM bets. Also note that the T&C's require 1.10min each leg.)

Example:



In theory, the other 3 are safe as houses, meaning nice odds on dusty for NS and bonus bet back if he doesn't get up.

 

[Fat Nyfe]

Not sure if it has been posted yet.
But Z. Tuohy AGS - $3.25 (SB)
His last 4 games 1.0, 1.1, 1.0, 1.0

Weather could be crap but I'm not shying away at that price.



On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app

I got on that too. Scott has been throwing him into the forward line for stints throughout the finals.

 

[Robo87]

Not sure if it has been posted yet.
But Z. Tuohy AGS - $3.25 (SB)
His last 4 games 1.0, 1.1, 1.0, 1.0

Weather could be crap but I'm not shying away at that price.



On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Yep on it. I mentioned it this morning but all good. Atleast it didn't get missed for others to get on

 

[md20]

Yep on it. I mentioned it this morning but all good. Atleast it didn't get missed for others to get on

My bad mate! Should have made more of an effort to scroll back. And should have known you had already spotted that value.

Also like Menegola AGS - $3.50 (Lads)
Has kicked 14.5 for the year. Never stops running and plays that attacking wing role.
(Priced as low as $2.10 on PB)


On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[md20]

PointsBet Norm Smith Top 3 - Dangerfield $2.40 looks interesting.

I like/tailed this.

On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[ShaunWDT]

My bad mate! Should have made more of an effort to scroll back. And should have known you had already spotted that value.

Also like Menegola AGS - $3.50 (Lads)
Has kicked 14.5 for year. Never stops running and plays that attacking wing role.
(Priced as low as $2.10 on PB)


On SM-G965F using BigFooty.com mobile app

Surely Lads ****ed this up? Bet of the year.
Even Duncan is overs, regularly kicks goals.

 

[squeaky1000]

Surely Lads f’ed this up? Bet of the year.
Even Duncan is overs, regularly kicks goals.

Cats kicked 1 goal in three quarters last time they played the tigers. Not saying that will happen again but don't think their wingers and mids will be strolling in and kicking easy goals like they have against the weaker teams this year

 

[ShaunWDT]

Cats kicked 1 goal in three quarters last time they played the tigers. Not saying that will happen again but don't think their wingers and mids will be strolling in and kicking easy goals like they have against the weaker teams this year

Menegola averages 0.7 goals a game across his career its not like hes a one in a million chance for a goal off a back pocket yet he's the 3rd highest quoted price in the market, that's overs whatever way you want to spin it.

 

[Robo87]

Prestia is the only one from Richmond I'd be including for 15+ disposals. Also: duncan, gola, Stewart, danger, selwood 15+. Comes to $3.20 on SB, probably could include a couple of AGS in it as well

Richmond conceded the 6th most disposals of any team in 2020. Geelong conceded the least disposals.

Some pre-warning-
If u include selwood 15+ in a sgm i hope you enjoy freaking out till he gets his 15th touch in the last 2 minutes of the game.. last week he was on 0 touches at quarter time and i was thinking my multi was going to be sunk on a ''safe'' 15+ leg . Dont remember how he got 16 as i swear the game said he finished bang on 15 last week. His disposals 2 games before that he got 16, 16, 14, 15, 14. ~bit close
Anyhow, good on you if he comes off! but ill be passing on his 15+.

 

[Robo87]

Pointsbet offering O/U for marks, clearances, tackles, and inside 50's

Looking at Goal Assists on PB
Danger ave 1.15/game (12/20) , Hawk ave 1.15/game (13/19), Ablett ave 1.09/game (8/11)
Ablett playing mostly hf and has a nice kick, so i like him to hit a player on the chest.
1u Ablett to get a goal assist @1.70 pb

Richmond stats show lynch and dusty arent so reliable at goal assists.
(also both danger and dusty ave over 5.2 inside50's/game if you like them for O4.5 inside 50's. @~1.60ish)
&
1u bolton 2g+ @7 lads - convinced myself this is value if rich get on top of geelong and bolton plays fwd again.
0.5u more added to bolton ags @1.85 lads

 

[jimboslice]