Analysis Geelong 2021 - contenders or a decline

dumb · Oct 25, 2020

They'll be thereabouts again, but they're a lot like North of a few years ago. I admire the way they are going to go balls out while we all talk of them going over that cliff.
The champs will play on while some of the better kids will move to somewhere they can get a game. Worse still is not giving the kids games and finding out too late they don't have what it takes.

Cameron will give their forward line another prong but Hawkins only has one or two more seasons, and they're back to needing to recruit another key forward.
I like Esava but he doesn't quite seem the type to build a forward line around. I'm not familiar enough with their list to know if they have any other tall forwards in waiting. But if they do, they're about to go further back in the pecking order.

Scott will try some more re-invention of players, like he did with Tuohy (perhaps Rohan this time around). But we haven't seen the last of them just yet unfortunately.

Holden Hillbilly · Oct 25, 2020

The age of Geelong's team in the second half of next season: Selwood - 33 Hawkins - 32 Tuohy - 31 Henderson - 31 Dangerfield - 31 Stanley - 30 Blicavs - 30 Rohan - 30 Duncan - 30

kickazz · Oct 25, 2020

Yeah why not. Cats were outplayed in the GF, but not disgraced. Even might get more games at KP again, who knows?

Scotland · Oct 25, 2020

Geelong's draft hand shouldn't have much of an effect on 2021. They may end up using a first round pick or two to get Jeremy Cameron, but assuming they just had pick 18 they would've found a way to get a trade done anyway. It's not the NBA. Cyril Rioli, Dan Butler/Jack Graham, Liam Ryan (+ Willie Rioli as a second year player playing his first year) were handy but they weren't the reason their teams won. If Geelong take 3 first round picks to the draft and use them will it will augur well for 2-3+ years time, not next year.

DavidSSS · Oct 26, 2020

They're old, they lost the Grand Final, stars are retiring, they recruit old players, their coach is too salty . . .

Yeah, but we have heard all of this before and they keep avoiding that cliff.

Very well run club, I don't doubt they will fall out of contention at some point but hard to pick when this will happen as they are well run and I don't think they will fall far or for long if they keep it together.

Plus, Chris Scott's demeanor has changed a little over time. He is getting less salty and looking more like he will learn more from setbacks. Scott needs to learn to be a better version of himself but he seems to be on the way. He is a very good coach but apart from the team he inherited in 2011 has not been able to quite crack the top prize - been bloody close for a long time though.

They were a half of football away from the big prize this year so there isn't much improvement needed to crack it. Geelong will be thereabouts, but if they don't win one in the next couple of years a reset might be needed as they have a lot of great players retiring.

DS

Brad Goodman · Oct 26, 2020

WillHayward said:
Crows and Hawks didnt plan on rebuilds. Thats my whole point.

The system is set up in a certain way.
Yes you have very done well to stay up so long which is a great credit to the running of the club.

Wont last forever. Sooner or later u will have a big drop.

Law of averages suggests it has to happen sometime. They haven’t won six games or less in a season since 1973.

Partridge · Oct 26, 2020

Boston tiger said:
Top 4 again. Every year it’s fall off cliff time. They’ll get their mojo going at cat park and away they go. Cameron will be great for them. Then some top draft picks from the Kelly trade and away they go again.

Problem is the core is the same and they're all another year older.

Selwood - 33 next year
Hawkins - 33 next year
Tuohy - 32 next year
Henderson - 32 next year
Jenkins - 32 next year
Dangerfield - 31 next year
Steven - 31 next year
Stanley - 31 next year
Duncan - 30 next year
Blicavs - 30 next year
Rohan - 30 next year

Guthrie, Dahlhaus, and Menegola all turn 29 as well.

It's not one or two players. It's half the team, and barring injury most will be playing every week. We can look the other way and pretend it's still 2013 for Selwood and 2017 for Dangerfield but it's not. It's not a cliff that's coming it's the grand canyon. Pretending otherwise is delusional.

MCG-Unit · Oct 26, 2020

Contenders :thumbsu:

My Tilly · Oct 26, 2020

Certainly decline will eventuate in 2021.
I think with the talent of Stewart, Hawkins, Dangerfield and possibly Cameron, they will make the finals, but top four I can't see it. Not when it's back to a 22 round season.
We just snuck in this year thanks to the shortened fixture.

tigers_of_old_08 · Oct 26, 2020

catscollector said:
Certainly decline will eventuate in 2021.
I think with the talent of Stewart, Hawkins, Dangerfield and possibly Cameron, they will make the finals, but top four I can't see it. Not when it's back to a 22 round season.
We just snuck in this year thanks to the shortened fixture.

Can Scott coach this group to a Grand Final? Is he the man to do this?

Wojcinski · Oct 26, 2020

tigers_of_old_08 said:
Can Scott coach this group to a Grand Final? Is he the man to do this?

I say we take a trip down memory lane all the way back to October 24th, 2020 and you have your answer

As for the future, this was Scott's 10th season as coach and he is contracted to 2022. That will be a key year because my feeling is that by then the following players will have retired;

- Selwood
- Hawkins
- Tuohy
- Henderson
- Stanley
- Blicavs
- Rohan
- Steven
- Jenkins
- Dahlhaus

Guys like Duncan, Guthrie, Menegola & Stewart will be 30-31. If Danger is still playing he'll be 33.

If the team is no longer competative then I'm positive Scott will give up the gig

PhatBoy · Oct 26, 2020

catscollector said:
Certainly decline will eventuate in 2021.
I think with the talent of Stewart, Hawkins, Dangerfield and possibly Cameron, they will make the finals, but top four I can't see it. Not when it's back to a 22 round season.
We just snuck in this year thanks to the shortened fixture.

Yeah that's what it was. The shortened fixture.
Boy we've had some superstars over the years.
Kardinia Park was unlucky not to be All Australian 12 years running, Shortened Fixture and Free Agency were robbed of Brownlow honours this season.

My Tilly · Oct 26, 2020

PhatBoy said:
Yeah that's what it was. The shortened fixture.
Boy we've had some superstars over the years.
Kardinia Park was unlucky not to be All Australian 12 years running, Shortened Fixture and Free Agency were robbed of Brownlow honours this season.

How were we traveling by round 17?
How do you think we have copped had there been a further 5 more matches to play?
I don't think we would have received the double chance and as such, we likely lose in week 1 again.

I think playing at the Gabba helped Geelong more so than any other team (bar Brisbane).
We get exposed at the MCG and we aren't too flash in Perth.
Very good at the dome though.

Let's see how this unfolds next season.

PhatBoy · Oct 27, 2020

catscollector said:
How were we traveling by round 17?
How do you think we have copped had there been a further 5 more matches to play?
I don't think we would have received the double chance and as such, we likely lose in week 1 again.

I think playing at the Gabba helped Geelong more so than any other team (bar Brisbane).
We get exposed at the MCG and we aren't too flash in Perth.
Very good at the dome though.

Let's see how this unfolds next season.

yeah with it's extra 1 metre of length and 4 less metres of width I'm certain the MCG would have proven impossible for us to handle. Just throws everything out so much.

Considering two of our best performances of the season came in 'rounds' 19 and 20 against two fellow finalists, followed by a half of dominance against the premiers in 'round' 21 I think we would have managed ok somehow.

Still, I'm sure next flag we win it will be a weird series of coincidences that lead to it rather than anything football related.

Grockadoc · Oct 27, 2020

Glaring lack of speed from the back half. They'll be a contender but they won't win. They are too slow as a whole. In a high pressure game where you can't rely on finding easy uncontested marks, you need to be able to take the game on. Geelong can't do that and Jeremy Cameron and Shaun Higgins will help when the ball is in the forward half, but Geelong's issues stem from their transition from the back half. When forward pressure sides get the ball forward, Geelong cannot transition it. Too many players with a lack of composure, clean footskills and pace to break it open over the top.

If I was Geelong, I would forget about Higgins, move Touhy into the half forward line and bring Clark in at Half Back.

Lach72 · Oct 27, 2020

Decline...but it's manageable if they start transitioning players out now.
Ablett and Taylor already gone.

They need to start getting guys like Tuohy etc out and replace with younger versions. Clark should play every game now

I'd have Cooper Stephens play and guys like Dalhaus and Steven would be kicked to the kerb...given what Rohan dishes up every 2md or third week, surely Krueger is worth a look?

Partridge · Oct 27, 2020

Holden Hillbilly said:
The age of Geelong's team in the second half of next season: Selwood - 33 Hawkins - 32 Tuohy - 31 Henderson - 31 Dangerfield - 31 Stanley - 30 Blicavs - 30 Rohan - 30 Duncan - 30

Hawkins will be 33 as well. He's a couple of months younger than Selwood.

Partridge · Oct 27, 2020

Grockadoc said:
Glaring lack of speed from the back half. They'll be a contender but they won't win. They are too slow as a whole. In a high pressure game where you can't rely on finding easy uncontested marks, you need to be able to take the game on. Geelong can't do that and Jeremy Cameron

5

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and Shaun Higgins

4

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184cm

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will help when the ball is in the forward half, but Geelong's issues stem from their transition from the back half. When forward pressure sides get the ball forward, Geelong cannot transition it. Too many players with a lack of composure, clean footskills and pace to break it open over the top.

If I was Geelong, I would forget about Higgins, move Touhy into the half forward line and bring Clark in at Half Back.

Agree with that with one exception. Tuohy I'd be looking long and hard at.

We'll win our home games, and enough at the MCG / away to make finals. Maybe top 4. But it really is on a knife's edge now. The end could come very fast for some of them.

Grockadoc · Oct 27, 2020

Partridge said:
Agree with that with one exception. Tuohy I'd be looking long and hard at.

We'll win our home games, and enough at the MCG / away to make finals. Maybe top 4. But it really is on a knife's edge now. The end could come very fast for some of them.

Would say Tuohy is Geelong's most composed ball user. His kicking as a flanker delivering in to Hawkins and Cameron would be a strength, and he would offer more, more consistently than what Rohan does.

But Geelong with games at GMHBA will always make finals. They do need to figure out a way to tweak their defensive transition. Their biggest weakness.

PhatBoy · Oct 27, 2020

Grockadoc said:
Would say Tuohy is Geelong's most composed ball user. His kicking as a flanker delivering in to Hawkins and Cameron would be a strength, and he would offer more, more consistently than what Rohan does.

But Geelong with games at GMHBA will always make finals. They do need to figure out a way to tweak their defensive transition. Their biggest weakness.

I'm not actively disagreeing with you but if that were the case, the rebound 50s stat is the one that would suffer the most wouldn't it? (the volume of stats these days genuinely confuses me so sometimes I forget what the hell means what). We won the rebound 50s stat in the grand final.

thecatattack · Oct 27, 2020

catscollector said:
How were we traveling by round 17?
How do you think we have copped had there been a further 5 more matches to play?
I don't think we would have received the double chance and as such, we likely lose in week 1 again.

I think playing at the Gabba helped Geelong more so than any other team (bar Brisbane).
We get exposed at the MCG and we aren't too flash in Perth.
Very good at the dome though.

Let's see how this unfolds next season.

We won 7 of our last 8 matches, losing to only Richmond pre-finals.

If the Finals are anything to go by, an extra 5 matches probably would've been fine for us.

I See Sooky People · Oct 27, 2020

PonsfordMagpie said:
Every year I write them off, and they continue to contend.

If they bring in Cameron, they'll be up there again.

I think Geelong will probably be pretty good, but if Cameron had played for Collingwood or Richmond or Carlton or Essendon in 2019 and only kicked 24 goals from 17 matches there would be thread after thread about how overrated he is and how "they'll never win a flag until they move him on". Can't comprehend why people think Cameron will be the difference maker.

hk89 · Oct 27, 2020

Would be a brave pundit who predicts their fall, given they've been defying gravity for over 10 years now.

Every year at the end of the season there is a thread started predicting their rapid decline since about 2009, and they've missed finals once (and only just) over that entire period.

Would like to see their full list of retirements and the product of trade week before committing an opinion, but with a bunch of games at the cattery next year, it is hard to see them doing much worse than this year. GAJ was a nice to have player, but wasn't exactly dragging them over the line in games on a regular basis, the guys capable of doing that are still going to be out there (Danger, Hawkins etc).

Would love to see both Richmond and Geelong plummet like James Hird's reputation, but unfortunately can't see either of those teams dropping far.

Partridge · Oct 27, 2020

Grockadoc said:
Would say Tuohy is Geelong's most composed ball user. His kicking as a flanker delivering in to Hawkins and Cameron would be a strength, and he would offer more, more consistently than what Rohan does.

But Geelong with games at GMHBA will always make finals. They do need to figure out a way to tweak their defensive transition. Their biggest weakness.

Not in finals though. He's not the only one, but a 31-year-old half back flanker who we're unwilling to play in defence anymore, who doesn't have a good record in finals, the worst thing we could do is pretend the Grand final was an aberration and more veterans will solve it.

Dr Tigris · Oct 27, 2020

Probably top 4 again, but there is a cliff coming.

Just a comment on the first half dominance. Losing Vlas early meant our defence was all at sea for quite a while. We looked very unlike ourselves until the later part of the 2nd quarter. Geelong did really well to take advantage, but ran out of steam. I reckon this is their weakness, they find the hard running repeat multiple effort game style hard to deal with. And that game style is what teams are successful doing now. Unless they change their style, which requires new players, I can't see them winning the GF next year. But then they are very good and some smart tactics might make it work.

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