Analysis Can't beat 'em, join 'em? Or can Geelong beat Tigerball in the future?

[My Tilly]

Dangerfield is so bad at kicking for goal that I honestly wonder why we bother with him forward. And he is 30, so he won't be fixing that. Every time they zoom in on his sh*t goal kicking routine I get triggered.

Maybe with the length of quarters back to normal it will help Dangerfield more so than any other player in our team?
Gives him an opportunity to really hit the scoreboard late in quarters as he gets on top of his opponent through sheer power and speed.

 

[Cataholic]

Maybe with the length of quarters back to normal it will help Dangerfield more so than any other player in our team?
Gives him an opportunity to really hit the scoreboard late in quarters as he gets on top of his opponent through sheer power and speed.

Danger is a mid, and that's where he should play, with occasional forays into the foreward line, imo.

He isn't a forward, and we need him where he's best suited.

 

[And_ROOS]

Maybe with the length of quarters back to normal it will help Dangerfield more so than any other player in our team?
Gives him an opportunity to really hit the scoreboard late in quarters as he gets on top of his opponent through sheer power and speed.

His speed and power has nothing to do with his atrocious goal kicking accuracy.

People used to say "who would you have kick for your life" and the answers would be Bartel, Chapman, etc.

Danger would be the bottom of that list.

 

[My Tilly]

His speed and power has nothing to do with his atrocious goal kicking accuracy.

People used to say "who would you have kick for your life" and the answers would be Bartel, Chapman, etc.

Danger would be the bottom of that list.

He's still kicked 300 career goals so he's a lot better than half the players in the competition.

I'm not sure what more you expect though. He is what he is.
It's why we are getting Cameron who is prodigious left footer so hopefully with a little bit of luck, he can be the guy having the set shot for goal in finals.

 

[CatToTheFuture]

Seems to be the same thing every finals. But for Tom Lynch we would have won last year. But for Grundy we would have won the QF. But for Gawn and Oliver we would have beaten Melbourne.

Its funny how in finals in the last 5 years every other team has someone who steps up, and yet we don't? We just lack a big game performer.

At the end of the day, our gameplan is super effective during the season but it just doesn't get it done in finals and I don't understand why there hasn't been a major change in 4 years.

I also wonder if we have someone who scouts the opposition. Seems the last few finals its been predictable who will have a big match, we stick one player on them and leave them be.
I really think if we want to keep playing this game style, we need a better ruck and we need a proper tagger because over the last 6 years what tears us to bits in finals is a competent ruck for the opposition, and an attacking midfielder.

Maybe that's Cameron, maybe not

 

[And_ROOS]

Maybe that's Cameron, maybe not

The concern I have is Scott, tactically, not very adaptable.

If I were coach (I am aware I am not, trust me the flogs on facebook remind me whenever I post anything), I would line up, best case scenario;
FB: Henry, Henderson/Kolo, Bews (ideally we could get an actual small defender instead)
HB: Stewart, Blicavs, Clark/Tuohy

Henry takes Harrys spot, third man up marking defender. We conceded the most goals to small forwards this year. Bews isn't the answer to that. We need a new small defender. Blicavs back to CHB because that is easily his best position, and Clark for some speed on half back where he started out and played his best football. Throw Tuohy back there, long direct kicking and far more accurate by foot than Bews, Henry etc.

MF: Duncan, Dangerfield, Smith/O'Connor/Fogarty.
FOLL: Menegola, Guthrie and Stanley in the middle. Ideally we could get a new ruckman in, one who isn't the athletic type like Stanley. Thing is, if we get a Mumford type ruckman who likes the physical stuff, Cameron does love to push up the ground. So having Stanley go forward as a resting ruck with a proper physical ruck isn't a bad option.

HF: Miers, Cameron, Selwood/Narkle/Steven depending on form/injury
FF: Rohan, Hawkins, Close/Dahlhaus

Bench can be any of Parfitt, Simpson, Atkins, etc.

Bold is my preference, but the way I see it if we are to accommodate Cameron in a properly functional way, we need ball movement to be number one priority. That means you need Stewart, Clark, Tuohy, Duncan, Menegola, Guthrie etc bringing the ball out of defense. We would have to be significantly more direct.

 

[And_ROOS]

He's still kicked 300 career goals so he's a lot better than half the players in the competition.

I'm not sure what more you expect though. He is what he is.
It's why we are getting Cameron who is prodigious left footer so hopefully with a little bit of luck, he can be the guy having the set shot for goal in finals.

Danger is wasted as a forward. We would be better served using his pace on the wings and at stoppages if there is a concern with playing him out of the middle. Goals/Behinds he was 17/17 this year predominantly forward, 27/18 last year mainly as a mid, 24/23 in 2018, 45/32 in 2017 and 24/24 in 2016.

Just too unreliable as a forward. Use him on a wing or half forward some of his entries inside 50 this year were unplayable because of how he was fizzing them in at times.

 

[catstragic]

FB: Henry, Henderson/Kolo, Bews (ideally we could get an actual small defender instead)
Bews isn't the answer to that. We need a new small defender.

Another small defender. Not a different small defender. Bews has a pretty good history of locking down oppo small forwards+he provides a fair bit of drive through the mid field now as a well. Two Bew's would be excellent.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Seems to be the same thing every finals. But for Tom Lynch we would have won last year. But for Grundy we would have won the QF. But for Gawn and Oliver we would have beaten Melbourne.

That's just not true. Martin kicked 4 of the best goals you'll ever see from absolutely nothing. It's probably the best individual Grand final performance in history. If you look back at the game Richmond weren't even that dominant in general play in their comeback we just didn't take advantage of our good play and they were incredibly efficient with Martin the main reason for that.

Lynch was very good in the 2019 prelim but it was on the back of our midfield getting obliterated. The defence actually held up pretty well that night considering the flood of ball in the second half.

Grundy didn't get a single coaches vote in the QF. Again the issue was their midfield destroying us. Same against Melbourne where Weiderman and Harmes were given the most votes by the coaches.

Before this year we've just been completely outplayed in most of the finals we lost. This year against Port we were the better team in general play but killed ourselves with missed shots in front of goal then made some terrible turnovers in the period when Port gained control. Against Richmond it was a bit of a similar story but Martin gave them 4 goals from nothing. We were just way more competitive in finals this year.

 

[Footy Smarts]

No point trying to copy the Tigers. We'll just be a worse version of them.

I actually think the GF shows we have a method for beating them. Beat them around the contest, be safe coming out from deep in defence and then pick them apart with gut running and quality kicking once you get forward of half back. Our recruitment shows this is what we'll try and do too. Higgins, Smith and Cameron are all quality kicks and the last 2 are super runners. Whatever you think about their age at least we're bringing in players that are suited to the style we want to play.

 

[Tiger71]

Trying to copy Richmond is an exercise in pointlessness, you won't be a better Richmond than they are.

The key to beating them is to understand the way they're playing and why - it has less to do with winning the game themselves and more to do with making the opposition lose. If you let them get you off-balance then the game is basically over.

This year they often seemed to deliberately vary the tempo in games, sitting back and defending for longer stretches to then press the attack harder at different stages. The team that beats them will need to develop a method that adjusts to the tempo more fluidly than Richmond does, and not get sucked into the narrative that their system is designed to build.

The other key thing is you can't invest too much in trying to prepare for any one single team. There will always come a point where every team in the league has changed, small shifts have occurred, and this is no longer the critical element to prepare for. I doubt a team designed to beat 2017 Richmond would have been able to stop the 2020 Richmond, for example. And their success is still dependant on a few key linchpins that will fail at some point or another.

Until then the best model (imo) is still undeniably to build your best team, identify their best game, and play the sh*t out of it. Reactive tactics are no way to live life.

Hope you dont mind, I was told of this thread and just wanted to highlight the above post, which as a tiger is spot on. I love my tigers and watch all there games, I laugh when people in the media, experts state with 100% conviction Richmond dont tag, and that myth is what in my belief constitutes to our winning which is the last 4 years we have won more games, home and away and finals then any other side.

To beat us, outside of us beating ourselves, (those 6 50 meters against the lions which resulted in 30 points for them) you have to go into the game and realise that out of our 22, 12 of them when we dont have the ball play to negate the opposition, it is simply a team tag. While the oppo has the ball, a good chunk of our side will block there opponent to allow our quality to get some space to be ready for the turn over. Or we will attack the man about to receive the ball, hence why we give a lot of free kicks and 90% lose the free kick count.

Hardwick and the recruiting staff have loaded up on players that have a seriously high footy IQ. They may not be flashy, they may have shocking disposal by foot but what they all have to a man is the ability to read the play when we dont have the ball, they know and believe in the system that we will turn the ball over and they set up by either blocking, scraping or running off there direct opponent to allow space to our "good users" to go when we pull the trigger.

We also do it for 100% of the game. It is hard to counter and your coach even stated, we have recruited these types for years prior to anybody else. We have zeroed in on the fact quality sides like yours have players that are competitors that play to win the game, they have been quality in there junior years and play the game to win, they all have a belief they can win it themselves, so its a polar opposite being manned up on someone who also is super competitive but sole focus is to sacrifice his own game ( reason so many have low disposals compared to the oppo in our side) to allow the TEAM to win.

I am not saying cats players are not team focused but they like most AFL players are all trained to the point its instinct to have belief in their own ability to win the game and we use that "strength" as a weakness. It's in the reason we tend to get on top of sides later in quarters and more specifically in later periods of the game once fatigue hits. That constant negating wears on players, as they fatigue that frustration builds then they start making unforced turnovers and when that happens those 10 to 12 negating players switch on to an offensive mindset and by doing so we then overwhelm sides.

How to beat us consistently, convince half your side to ignore their personal ability and to be convinced that there main goal is to negate who they play against and bank those in the side with the license to get the ball back to transition after turnover are free to do so. It is why we tend to always play at a lower gear against weaker sides. Being weaker those sides players are more concerned by us and play that way. Quality teams like yours and West Coast go into the game to beat us and hence play into our hands.

 

[Moley Russels Wart]

I actually think Geelong have the game that can beat Richmonds style of play. The PF last year and the first half of GF this year showed it. It was wet and slippery last night early and Geelong were up under those conditions. Better decision making, better kicking to players on a lead, more space, more pressure, they didn't hang onto the ball they played on and still made it look good. They were winning everything that mattered. Richmond couldn't take an intercept mark and had no rebound it looked like it was going to blow out tbh. What it looks like to me is Geelong play a classical skilled style of football, it really is nice to watch. It does really well in the season proper and they win a lot of games. They played that skilled style with a faster tempo in the finals this year and it looked the goods. The Brisbane PF was a really good example of the same tweaked game style they used against Richmond. But they only played that tweaked style for a half or so. They just don't seem to do it the whole game , they either can't because they aren't conditioned to do it because the play on much faster piece is not something they train to do consistently or they get challenged and go back to what they know works for them all year. It's probably a combination of both tbh.

They crack under stoppage pressure. Teams we battled against: Carlton, Sydney, Richmond, Port QF but not Port H&A. Tigers can somehow go from 16th in stoppages to killing the best team overnight. There is something inside we are not good at and teams have worked us out, match it in there and blow us away on the spread. I'd like to see Rohan and Clarke with O'connor all in the back half. As much as I like the guys Hendo and Taylor should both go for Blicavs full back. Those guys just don't intercept mark in the big games, they hardly even manage to spoil it to the boundary and their foot speed is always exposed.

 

[And_ROOS]

They crack under stoppage pressure. Teams we battled against: Carlton, Sydney, Richmond, Port QF but not Port H&A. Tigers can somehow go from 16th in stoppages to killing the best team overnight. There is something inside we are not good at and teams have worked us out, match it in there and blow us away on the spread. I'd like to see Rohan and Clarke with O'connor all in the back half. As much as I like the guys Hendo and Taylor should both go for Blicavs full back. Those guys just don't intercept mark in the big games, they hardly even manage to spoil it to the boundary and their foot speed is always exposed.

Small forwards and forwards with pace kill us. Our best small defender is Bews. The most scores against us the last 2 seasons have come from small forwards.

Its been an issue longer then that but now its really costing us. And like the lack of ruck depth, our coach and list manager don't have it as a priority.