Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 4 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[Bulldogs85]

Sounds like Menegola is gettable. Just wants a longer contract and more $ than what Geelong are offering. Would be ecstatic to pick him up and put him on the wing. Was unlucky not to make All Australian this year

Is he out of contract can’t see him leaving Geelong anyway

 

[GreatSouthWest]

Can anyone supply an article confirming that compo picks don't effect the point index?

100%. How does pick 14 retain the same DPs as the former pick 12? Someone's talking shit.

 

[dergert]

I have to be a little careful here as a close family member was until recently at Essendon.
He has moved on to a very senior position at another Club in another code.
I had dinner with him last night!
OK I will spell this out for all of us Essendon officials, players and supporters think that our club along with some other clubs are sh*t FEEDER clubs that they can plunder anytime they like! There arrogance is something to behold.
He was there, in the room when they dealt with Stringer and I know what they paid,the resources they put into him like personal coach, 5 mindbenders and parents to Melbourne. He told me clubs like ours can’t afford to put resources into players like him. He told me a lot those resources disappeared this year and hence when his jumper got pulled up roll of fat appeared.
Essendon did put in a huge offer to the Bonts management but it didn’t go anywhere! He still thinks they will go after the Bont again.
He said billionaires put up the money eg Little, Goodguy etc
He said Mr D will offer us Bolton and Hennaman and pick 205 for Dunks and they will say we better take it because they won’t stop!He doesn’t think there is anyway they will offer pick 6 and 7! Mr D thinks our club is still in the 90’s and a easy push over!!!
He thinks if we let Dunks go for nothing the other major clubs will line up to raid! The club needs to be strong and say no or get very big overs.
I will finish with this little tip bit- he was told they had this superstar kid at there club a few years ago who broke there 2 k record and they told him that this kid is going to be the next Buddy Franklin. Ring any bells. If it was JUH, he shouldn’t have been there! He was our in our system! I told a top official at our club what I had been told and he couldn’t believe it!

Do we have anything in the pipeline this trade period?

 

[DognBones]

I realise that a large component of the compensation given for free agents is the size of the new contract offered but just to show how rediculous the whole system is, Essendon get pick 7 for a player who has played 15 games in 3 years and who is liable to break down again at any moment. What a farce.

 

[Del203211]

I realise that a large component of the compensation given for free agents is the size of the new contract offered but just to show how rediculous the whole system is, Essendon get pick 7 for a player who has played 15 games in 3 years and who is liable to break down again at any moment. What a farce.

Should factor in games played over the last few years based on selection and injury also.

 

[HELMET!]

I don't see essendon bottoming out as badly as North or Adelaide. They might end up bottom 4 but even at their worst they'll still win minimum 6 games a year.

Personally if they did get a bunch of first rounders I would be trying to go through the draft for a proper rebuild and aim for that 4-5 year rise.

Port, Brisbane and Richmond (although years ago now) all built their list through young talent. You can't fix a patchy list with over priced players and hope to win a flag like the hawks are currently trying to do with their recruiting.

 

[Del203211]

I don't see essendon bottoming out as badly as North or Adelaide. They might end up bottom 4 but even at their worst they'll still win minimum 6 games a year.

Personally if they did get a bunch of first rounders I would be trying to go through the draft for a proper rebuild and aim for that 4-5 year rise.

Port, Brisbane and Richmond (although years ago now) all built their list through young talent. You can't fix a patchy list with over priced players and hope to win a flag like the hawks are currently trying to do with their recruiting.

They are the definition of insanity. Doing the same thing every year and expecting a different result.

 

[glenashley]

The bigger issue is how much some slightly above average and / or injury prone players are getting paid in the new contracts. Nearly a mil for Williams and Daniher FFS.

That's what gets them band 1 compo.

No wonder Dunks has his ears pricked up!

I realise that a large component of the compensation given for free agents is the size of the new contract offered but just to show how rediculous the whole system is, Essendon get pick 7 for a player who has played 15 games in 3 years and who is liable to break down again at any moment. What a farce.

 

[HELMET!]

I wouldn't be surprised if they've mentioned some sort of leadership role for Dunkley. Once heppell goes they really don't have any outstanding leaders. He'll be a leader here but he'll never be the captain while bont is around.

 

[Lindsay_Gilbee]

Besides keeping Dunks I think Stephenson has to be our #1 priority now. He would add sooooo much to our forwardline. Pace and goals. Exactly what we need.

it’s still absolutely bewildering what Collingwood are doing atm. What a weird off-season for them.

 

[Virgin Dog]

I wouldn't be surprised if they've mentioned some sort of leadership role for Dunkley. Once heppell goes they really don't have any outstanding leaders. He'll be a leader here but he'll never be the captain while bont is around.

Genuine question - how often do trade-ins end up as captain? Seems they're usually drafted from what I know of

 

[TMoney22]

When do supporters of the 13 or 14 other clubs get jack of it and start following another sport or doing something else with their weekends? It’ll happen. AFL needs to be very very careful it doesn’t disenfranchise the bulk of its supporters with this free agency, rich get richer s***, because it’s skating on very thin ice.

How the hell can the runners up get Smith, Cameron and Higgins in one year on top of what they've already got? Surely the AFL needs to look at their books.

Imagine the execs visiting NBA, NFL etc and saying we have a free agency in which a manager's negotiation skills can affect the draft order. Ridiculous

 

[Del203211]

Besides keeping Dunks I think Stephenson has to be our #1 priority now. He would add sooooo much to our forwardline. Pace and goals. Exactly what we need.

it’s still absolutely bewildering what Collingwood are doing atm. What a weird off-season for them.

I think they’ve come to the realisation it’s time for change.

 

[ossie_21]

100%. How does pick 14 retain the same DPs as the former pick 12? Someone's talking sh*t.

Can’t find anything in official AFL documents, but this article explains the process of draft points and there is no reference to the points being calculated on the original order. It actually says picks being moved backwards can make it harder for clubs to match bids

An idiot's guide to the new AFL bidding system

Have you struggled through many sleepless nights trying to work out how the AFL's new bidding system works? Don't worry: your questions, concerns and 'what ifs' are all answered in here...

amp.theage.com.au

Something typically overlooked is whilst early picks can move back, later picks can move up once bids are matched and picks disappear. Wouldn’t be the worst to have a bunch of picks in the mid-range that could easily move up ~10 spots

It sucks for us this year as an example as our original 12 is currently 14 and could well become 16 if Crouch and Cameron are compo picks. That alone would cost us over 200pts which is equivalent of an early 4th round pick

 

[HELMET!]

Genuine question - how often do trade-ins end up as captain? Seems they're usually drafted from what I know of

I tend to agree on most cases. I think they're thinking of life after heppell and who their next captain will be.

Regardless, I think dunks stays

 

[Pugz89]

Jezza on 950k at the Cats. Wowwee.

 

[bullish23]

Jezza on 950k at the Cats. Wowwee.

Cmon. No one is allowed to be paid more than the captain at the cats. Hence danger is on the same as what a HBF at norf gets.

 

[Here we go dogs]

I have to be a little careful here as a close family member was until recently at Essendon.
He has moved on to a very senior position at another Club in another code.
I had dinner with him last night!
OK I will spell this out for all of us Essendon officials, players and supporters think that our club along with some other clubs are sh*t FEEDER clubs that they can plunder anytime they like! There arrogance is something to behold.
He was there, in the room when they dealt with Stringer and I know what they paid,the resources they put into him like personal coach, 5 mindbenders and parents to Melbourne. He told me clubs like ours can’t afford to put resources into players like him. He told me a lot those resources disappeared this year and hence when his jumper got pulled up roll of fat appeared.
Essendon did put in a huge offer to the Bonts management but it didn’t go anywhere! He still thinks they will go after the Bont again.
He said billionaires put up the money eg Little, Goodguy etc
He said Mr D will offer us Bolton and Hennaman and pick 205 for Dunks and they will say we better take it because they won’t stop!He doesn’t think there is anyway they will offer pick 6 and 7! Mr D thinks our club is still in the 90’s and a easy push over!!!
He thinks if we let Dunks go for nothing the other major clubs will line up to raid! The club needs to be strong and say no or get very big overs.
I will finish with this little tip bit- he was told they had this superstar kid at there club a few years ago who broke there 2 k record and they told him that this kid is going to be the next Buddy Franklin. Ring any bells. If it was JUH, he shouldn’t have been there! He was our in our system! I told a top official at our club what I had been told and he couldn’t believe it!

I don’t disbelieve that would be the view on us from the bigger teams. Although I can’t think of many players we wanted to keep leaving in recent times (griffin the exception)

If we keep this team together and recruit smartly in the next couple of years we will win flags and the winds will change.

As a club I think we could build quickly to a Geelong maybe even Hawthorn size if we have a golden era given the growing population and demographic of the west.

 

[brutus76]

Sorry to intrude.

Say the Bombers got 8 for Saad and trade 8 and the Raz pick 28/34 and 47 for the Lions 18,19,42

If the Dons offered 6 and 18 and a 2021 2nd for 14 and Dunkley would that seem ok?

Even if JUH gets bids at #1 then 6 covers most of it and 18 becomes 37 leaving you 37,40,53,89 to get some additional talent.

 

[Boyd oh Boyd]

Sorry to intrude.

Say the Bombers got 8 for Saad and trade 8 and the Raz pick 28/34 and 47 for the Lions 18,19,42

If the Dons offered 6 and 18 and a 2021 2nd for 14 and Dunkley would that seem ok?

Even if JUH gets bids at #1 then 6 covers most of it and 18 becomes 37 leaving you 37,40,53,89 to get some additional talent.

Don't mean to be rude but this is a shit deal. When JUH gets bid on somewhere in the first four picks what you've given us disappears. Why would we do that trade instead of just swapping 14 for a couple of seconds? There's no net benefit for us except we keep more picks later in the draft which is no help to us at all.

 

[dogwatch]

Free agency is rubbish the way it is currently set up. The team that benefits should have to give the compo. Eg: Geelong give picks or a points based compo to GWS for Cameron. We have a draft and salary cap to make a level playing field then stuff it up with free agancy. I don’t mind free agency for the player yet no club deserves a free kick, they should provide the compo

This sentence sums up the problem.

The compensation pick that creates value out of thin air is just a conjuring trick. In reality all 18 clubs pay for that compensation pick in equal part by suffering a small depreciation of their draft hand. It may also be that clubs (like us) facing the prospect of an early bid on their father-son or academy player will suffer even more if the points value of their draft hand is diminished with each compensation pick.

Over about 30 years up to 2015 the AFL had developed and refined a workable equalisation arrangement for the competition based on the draft, salary cap and equalisation payments. Not perfect by any means but reasonably fair compared to the widening gap that was appearing in the 1970s and 80s.

Then the AFLPA came along and forced the AFL's hand on free agency. The AFL's unpalatable alternative was a likely losing battle before the ACCC. So now the law of the jungle is reasserting itself with the richer clubs (or at least those with influential backers) regularly attracting many of the best players in the league during their prime years. It doesn't help that it is almost impossible for the AFL to detect, measure and police certain forms of payment that could fall in or beyond the "grey" area around what's legal.

Abolishing compensation picks won't help the weaker clubs who will still lose star players.
Declaring the top 4 teams each year to be ineligible to receive free agents will be challenged by the AFLPA as a constraint on free movement, as will other variants such as ruling that free agents can only go to clubs that finished lower.

The same argument might also be used if the AFL tries to make the beneficiary clubs hand over an appropriate draft pick(or points) based on what the player is deemed to be worth. However that still seems the best shot at solving this difficult problem. Perhaps it could be made more acceptable if there was a 10% or 20% discount, as with the F-S bidding system?

I don't know if the AFL has the appetite to try to fix this though. It is very wary of the AFLPA. Perhaps it needs a concerted campaign from the presidents of the smaller clubs.

 

[Deadly Darcy]

Sorry to intrude.

Say the Bombers got 8 for Saad and trade 8 and the Raz pick 28/34 and 47 for the Lions 18,19,42

If the Dons offered 6 and 18 and a 2021 2nd for 14 and Dunkley would that seem ok?

Even if JUH gets bids at #1 then 6 covers most of it and 18 becomes 37 leaving you 37,40,53,89 to get some additional talent.

Not a chance in hell. He’s contracted for 2 more years so the dogs have zero reason to agree to “fair” value. Your club will get exactly the same answer Dodo gave Sydney re Daniher last year. Pay us the world or it’s not enough. 2 early 1st rounders or see y’all in 2023.

 

[Lindsay_Gilbee]

Menagola from the cats certainly solves our wing issue. Seems to be collateral of the Cameron deal.

so many players moving/being moved this year.

 

[Munnez]

How are Geelongs kids feeling right now?

I woulld be going hard at Jordan Clark

6

Jordan Clark

Age

25

Ht

185cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.7

4star

K

9.4

4star

HB

4.3

3star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.6

4star

MG

172.0

3star

D

12.5

3star

K

8.5

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.5

2star

MG

172.0

3star

D

12.2

3star

K

10.4

4star

HB

1.8

2star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.4

4star

somde serious jets and a good kick. He could be the opposite winger to Hunter.
And it's known he is already disgruntled down at the Cattery

 

[Woofing]

I woulld be going hard at Jordan Clark

6

Jordan Clark

Age

25

Ht

185cm

Wt

83kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.7

4star

K

9.4

4star

HB

4.3

3star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.6

4star

MG

172.0

3star

D

12.5

3star

K

8.5

3star

HB

4.0

3star

M

4.0

4star

T

1.5

2star

MG

172.0

3star

D

12.2

3star

K

10.4

4star

HB

1.8

2star

M

3.4

4star

T

2.4

4star

somde serious jets and a good kick. He could be the opposite winger to Hunter.
And it's known he is already disgruntled down at the Cattery

What Value would Menegola and Clarke demand. I like either or both as options, struggled to value them though.